There is no doubt that there will be changes across the Oilers roster between now and October. The defence is in need of a massive overhaul, especially on the right side, and the forward group will likely be tinkered with in an attempt to acquire defencemen and to make cap space to potentially sign defencemen.

There’s a good chance that Teddy Purcell, a free agent as of July 1st,  will be moved at the deadline. There’s also the chance that young talent like Jordan Eberle and/or Nail Yakupov could be moved out to acquire a defenceman. This leaves the Oilers management with a few options for the 2016/17 season. They could move Zack Kassianover to his natural side on the right and have him play with either Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid. The Oilers could also shift Draisaitl to the wing and slot in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to center him and Hall. Maybe Yakupov stays and moves up to the top six, but the way things are gong for him, and really the lack of ice time he’s been getting, has me wondering if he even has a future with the club.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

One of the most entertaining teams to watch this season have been the Dallas Stars. With a well constructed roster, they’re near the top of the league when it comes to goals and points percentage, and have also posted some excellent underlying numbers as well at even-strength (Source: War on Ice and Hockey Reference).

Dallas Stars – 2015/16 (5v5)

The Stars really rely on being a high-event team, meaning they generate a high number of shots that are well above the league average, but they also allow shots, which has them closer to the league average. They currently rank second overall in total shot attempts per 60 (both for and against), but are one of the few teams, really in the history of the league, that are on the ice for that many shots but still posts a Corsi For% above 51%. This makes for some very entertaining hockey as they don’t seem to mind exchanging chances with opponents, playing more of a high risk, high reward style, and are having success scoring goals.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

With the trade deadline coming, we know the Oilers will be moving pieces like Teddy Purcell and Justin Schultz with an eye to the future.  I’m expecting the Oilers to acquire picks and prospects, and clear up as much cap space as possible to add pieces to the defence core during the off season.

This is definitely a concern I have with GM Peter Chiarelli. He has made some reasonable bets adding Cam Talbot and Andrej Sekera who have both done well in their respective positions. But he has also made an investment in forwards Lauri Korpikoskiand Mark Letestu, who have both been dreadful at even-strength this season. What’s even more troubling is that both players had a history of crumbling offensive numbers, which appear to have been largely ignored by Oilers management before acquiring them.

Full article is at The Copper  Blue.

It’s been tough watching Anton Lander struggle this season. After notching 11 points at even-strength in 38 games last season, plus 10 more points on the powerplay, it appeared that the young prospect was finally turning a corner in his NHL career. Unfortunately for him, this season has been a disaster. He’s definitely not playing at the level he was at under Todd Nelson and, to my eye, hasn’t been involved in as many offensive zone plays. I thought he had more of a presence in front of the net last season and looked a lot more assertive with and without the puck. Diving into the numbers from War on Ice, we see that he isn’t generating as many shots or scoring chances compared to last season, and hasn’t had a positive impact on team possession. What should keep him on the roster is his very manageable contract, his ability to play center and win draws, and his ability to draw penalties (where he ranks 5th in the league in penalty differential).

As bad as Lander has struggled, Mark Letestu hasn’t been that much better. He has seen his ice time increase significantly with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins out of the lineup, yet he only has six points at even-strength all season. His point production per 60 minutes is a paltry 0.61, ahead of only Lander and Luke Gazdic among Oiler forwards this season (Appendix A).

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Heading into free agency this summer, forward Milan Lucic can expect to get paid. His past performance, including a championship in Boston, along with his reputation of being a big, physical player will ensure that there will be many teams interested in signing him, ready to pay top dollar for the 27 year old. He’ll be coming off of a three year deal that he signed with Boston, which paid him $18 million.

With Peter Chiarelli managing the Oilers now, there will definitely be some chatter about Lucic signing in Edmonton. But there are a few things to consider if Edmonton wants go down that route.

With the trade deadline coming up at the end of February, most of the focus has been on the players with either expiring contracts (Teddy Purcell,Eric Gryba) and players that have struggled to adjust to Todd McLellan’s system (Justin Schultz, Mark Fayne). One player that I’m surprised hasn’t really been considered as an expendable asset at this point is 29 year old Lauri Korpikoski. The winger is currently in the third year of a 4-year, $10 million contract he signed with Arizona.

A few weeks ago, I dug into Korpikoski’s numbers a little more, mainly because he had played a lot of time with Anton Lander, who has been in an awful funk all season. It was all part of exploring what effects Lander was having on his teammates and vice versa, and if what I was seeing on the ice matched what the numbers were telling me. When I took a longer look at Korpikoski’s history, I came away with one key finding: Korpikoski is not a good player.

Looked into the production and possession numbers of Oilers winger Benoit Pouliot to dispel any rumors about him being anything less than a top six forward.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

This past Monday, Lowetide and I discussed players that might be shipped away at the deadline and what the Oilers could possibly get in return. Teddy Purcell is the most likely forward to be dealt considering his expiring contract and his high trade value. And on the blueline, the Oilers could potentially trade awayMark Fayne who has struggled at times under the new coaching staff or Eric Grybawhose contract is expiring this summer and who might be of value to a playoff-bound team looking for a 6th/7th defencemen. Justin Schultz is another prime candidate to be shipped out as he hasn’t exactly proven himself to be a $3.9 million player.

Now obviously the Oilers can’t get rid of all three of these defencemen as they play on the right-side. But based on the possession numbers and the contract situations going into the summer, something has to give. And now that they’ve claimed a right shooting defencemen in Adam Clendening, who is touted as an offensive player, something is likely to give in the next few weeks.

To get a sense of the value each defencemen brings to the team and the different lines, I compiled the Corsi For % of each player with the different centermen at even-strength this season.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Something that’s been of interest to me has been faceoffs and some of the odd numbers the Oilers have been posting this season.

In November when the Oilers had that poor start, an area that the coaching staff wanted to improve on was faceoffs. I’m of the sense that faceoffs are important, but tend to be overvalued as there are other events in a game that have a greater impact on scoring and possession that aren’t tracked. Regardless, since the coaching staff has talked about faceoffs throughout the season, and how much the team has been working on them, I thought it would be worth looking at the latest numbers.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

With the Pacific Division being as terrible as it’s been this season, there have been some rumblings that the Oilers could, somehow, someway, sneak into the playoffs. Currently, the Oilers are six points back of third place Arizona in the division. Having Connor McDavid and Oscar Klefbom back in the very near future will definitely improve the team, but let’s not kid ourselves. The Oilers aren’t good enough to make the playoffs.

After the Oilers brutal start to the season, going 3-7, my colleague Scott Reynolds looked into how many other teams over the past ten seasons collected only six points in their first 10 games and who had a poor goal differential. The good news is that there were a small handful of teams that went on to make the playoffs or at least push for a playoff spot following a rough start. But from what I found, those teams that started poorly had strong underlying numbers but had scoring and goaltending issues that sunk them early on. The teams that bounced back were good possession teams that saw improvements in their PDO to get back into the playoff picture.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.