I joined Lowetide on Monday morning on TSN 1260 to talk Oilers and their offseason plans. Clip is below and starts around the 20 minute mark.

Something I mentioned on air to Al which I should probably expand on is the disappointing post-season run.

Maybe I shouldn’t complain that we got to see playoff hockey after 11 years and 13 games in total. We did get some fantastic performances from Cam Talbot and Leon Draisaitl and Oscar Klefbom. And the club was one win away from the conference finals.

But make no mistake, this was a missed opportunity.

The western conference, in my mind, was wide open with no clear favorites all season. If there was a year to go all in, this was probably the one. Instead, the Oilers didn’t make any significant trades to improve their chances and I think some of their flaws, that were evident all season, cost them against the Ducks.

The defence in particular, while more experienced and healthier than years past, was an issue for the team, yet it wasn’t addressed going into the playoffs. Instead,  the Oilers gave away some of their depth to shore up their center position, which didn’t exactly work out either.

In their 13 playoff games, the Oilers were outscored 24-21 at 5v5, a pretty weak 46.67% goal-share. Their shot-shares were one of the worst among the playoff teams, with a score-adjusted Corsi For% of 48.73% and a Fenwick For% of 46.92%. Their 93.18% team save percentage at 5v5 was around league average, and was a big reason why, along with their powerplay, they won seven playoff games.

Now to get back into the same position, they’ll have to replicate the success they had in the regular season (i.e., two players in the top 10 league scoring, top 10 goaltending, +26 goal differential at 5v5) and hope that the roster stays as healthy as it did in 2016/17. We see how quickly championship windows can open and close because of injuries (Tampa Bay) and poor roster management (Dallas), so it’s crucial that the Oilers do everything possible to make the most of their opportunity with McDavid on the roster.

I want to remain optimistic that the Oilers can be in the same spot as they were this year. But losing four of their last five playoff games, allowing one of the highest rates of shots against and absolutely collapsing in game five is concerning. This off-season has to be about addressing their needs, especially on defence, and building a legitimate contender.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

I joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 on Monday morning to talk all things Oilers. Clip is below, starts around the 20 minute mark.

Topics we covered:

• How awesome game six was
• Draisaitl at center and what options the team has
• The play of Slepyshev and importance of value contracts going forward
• Potential defence pairs if Sekera is out

Just a quick follow-up to something I tweeted out after the Oilers won game two and took a 2-0 lead over the Ducks.

The Oilers are two wins away from reaching the conference finals. They finished second in their division, getting significant offence from their top line and some outstanding goaltending from Cam Talbot. The west was wide open this season, as there weren’t any offensive juggernauts like Pittsburgh or Washington, and the Oilers did a good job taking advantage. I thought their defensive game was still lacking, and relied a little too much on McDavid being on the ice, but for the most part, they didn’t ride any percentages.

It’s great to see the Oilers back in the playoffs and doing well. And I hope this post-season run  changes the expectations fans have for the team going forward.

In my mind, expectations changed once the Oilers won the draft lottery, as growth/development was no longer going to be an excuse with a talent like McDavid in the fold. And the Oilers recognized that as well hiring an experienced general manager and coach soon after.

For me, everything the Oilers do has to be geared towards winning a cup, especially with McDavid on the payroll. And a lot of my work has been based on the pursuit of become legitimate contenders and winning a championship. This has made my work pretty critical of the Oilers and management, as I’m really interested in the ways to make winning sustainable. I won’t have all of the solutions (I don’t think “hockey men” do either), but it’ll be fun discussing the Oilers now with more people demanding a championship.

Radio segment from this morning with Lowetide on TSN 1260 is at SoundCloud. Topics we covered:

• Lack of production from Eberle
• Potentially changing up the lines
• Improved play of Pouliot and Desharnais
• Defence pairings
• Officiating and team penalty differentials

Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to talk about the Oilers series against the Sharks, and what to expect against the Ducks in round two. Clip starts around 20 minutes in.

Topics we discussed:

• What the Oilers did well against the Sharks
• The play of Nugent-Hopkins
• Optimal line combinations against the Ducks
• Bring on round two!

Joined Lowetide this morning for my weekly segment on TSN 1260 to chat Oilers. Clip starts around the 20 minute mark, but definitely check out Jake Sundstrom’s segment right before. He and the crew at Fear the Fin do some great work covering the Sharks.

Topics we covered:

• Last night’s win in San Jose
• The new line combinations (finally!)
• The play of Kassian, importance of depth scoring
• Expectations over the next few games

Joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 to talk all things Oilers. Clip starts around 20 minutes in.

Topics we covered:

• Season finale, Connor reaches 100 points!
• The team Corsi For% was not strong over the final 25 games.
• My recent article on the team defence this year, and why Talbot is the reason why the goals against are down.
• Off-season goals and if retating Russell makes sense from a financial perspective.
• Playoffs starting up!

I joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to talk Oilers. Clip is below and starts a few minutes in.

Topics we covered:

• Big win against the Ducks on Saturday night
• The season-long Corsi For% is trending downards
• Potential playoff matchups (vs Calgary, San Jose or Anaheim)
• The Oilers penalty kill and if Anton Lander could help
• Comparing the play of Drake Caggiula and Anton Slepyshev
• Upcoming road games in Los Angeles, San Jose and Vancouver.

Couple thoughts:

• The more I watch this team, the more I think they might end up being like the Habs and Rangers in the past. They’re getting outshot now more regularly (rank 18th in the league with a 50.1, score-adjusted Corsi For%), but the Oilers are getting some very good goaltending from Talbot that’s just been bailing them out, night after night. The Oilers rank 6^th in the league today when it comes to team save percentage at even-strength (92.9%), which is outstanding. If Talbot does this again next season, I’ll consider him elite (he’s just below that group right now, in my opinion). (Data: Natural Stat Trick)
• History has shown that the best teams, the ones that can contend for the Cup, have good possession numbers, especially in their final 25 games of the regular season. The Oilers need to be better, and really need to figure out how to slow down the rate of shots against. It’s been brutal, even with McDavid on the ice. Wrote about it last week:
  • A Look Into The Oilers Declining Possession Numbers – The Copper & Blue (2017, March 29)
• Goal scoring is always tougher in the playoffs, so it’s great news that the Oilers have a pretty decent powerplay running right now. They rank 5th in the league (and 1st in the west) when it comes to goals per hour. And it looks to be sustainable, as they’re 10th when it comes to the rate of unblocked shots generated (75.67), and 9th when it comes to shots on goal per hour (53.65).
• And it looks like whatever adjustments the team made on the penalty kill has been working. They reduced the rate of shots against in the month of March, and the goaltending bounced back in a big way. Al mentioned this in our segment, which I didn’t touch on in my article, but Caggiula and McDavid are getting more reps shorthanded, and have added some much needed speed. Here’s what I wrote on the penalty kill last week:
  • The Oilers Penalty Kill is Killing Penalties Again – The Copper & Blue (2017, March 31st)
• In my opinion, the most important prospect for the Oilers, aside from McDavid, is Draisaitl. He brings a lot of elements that  the team needs to  win championships. And I think he has the skill and size that could potentially drive a line in the future. But until there’s evidence of it, I have to remain skeptical. Without McDavid or Hall with him at 5v5, Draisaitl’s on-ice Corsi For% is 49.8%, which isn’t bad. And his on-ice goal-share is 40.7%. It’d be foolish to hand him a heavy, long-term contract without even knowing if he can drive a line, but I suspect that management has already made up their minds.
• PS: I’m pretty stoked about the playoffs, and happy to hear more and more people talk about really contending for a championship. For far too long, making the playoffs was the end goal, and I think that’s a poor way to build a team. I don’t think any club should be given a pass because they’re young, or that they need “learn how to win”, whatever that means. Championship windows, as we’ve seen in Dallas this year, can open and close pretty quickly, so it’s critical to push for a championship as soon as you can. With McDavid, that sped up the process considerably, and it’s nice to see the conversation around the Oilers start to change. The Oilers are in a fantastic spot right now and the pieces are coming together. Still some holes to figure out in the off-season. But for now, anything is possible.

I joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 this morning to talk all things Oilers. Clip is below, starting around the 20 minute mark.

Topics we covered:

• Keys to success this season.
• The Oilers declining shot-share (Corsi For%).
• Matt Benning’s emergence and future with the team.
• That Sekera-Russell pairing.
• Playoffs and reasonable expectations.
• Calling up Mark Fayne if Benning is out with an injury.
• Upcoming games against LA, San Jose and Anaheim.