I joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to talk all things Oilers. Clip is below and starts around the 25 minute mark.

Topics we covered:

• Oilers off-season moves so far and why they should be doing more.
• The addition of Jussi Jokinen and his potential role. I also wrote about the signing at The Copper & Blue.
• Potential forward line combinations for the fall.
• Adding an experienced defenceman like Cody Franson this summer.
• Leon Draisaitl contract.

With forward line combinations, I like to view things as pairs first, similar to what Todd McLellan has talked about in the past. I like the idea of wingers being interchangeable depending on the opponent and the game-state, and it makes a lot of sense. I also like the idea of three quality lines and would try to balance out skill as much as possible to overwhelm opponents.

Pairings:

• McDavid/Maroon
  • Over 700 minutes together at 5v5 last season, and they posted a 62% GF%, and a 53% CF%.
  • Even without Draisaitl on the wing, they still did well – 191 minutes, 66.7% GF%, and a 53.8% CF%.
• Draisaitl/Lucic
  • On the surface, this pair might not be too appealing. In 209 minutes together, they posted a GF% of only 41.2%, outscored 10-7. They may have been impacted by some bad luck as their PDO sat at 96.6.
  • Their CF% was a pretty decent 52.8% together. However, it may have been McDavid’s influence. Without McDavid, in 134 minutes, they posted a pretty weak 47.5% CF%, and a 40% (!!) GF%.
  • Ready to drive a line, Leon? 😉
• Nugent-Hopkins/Jokinen
  • Both players can play against top lines, and I think they’d make a good tough-minutes tandem. RNH can use the help (he wasn’t very good in terms of shot-share last season), and I like the idea of having someone that can take draws on the same line as him.
• Letestu/Kassian
  • Both players are valued by the team. Letestu for his scoring on the powerplay. And Kassian just recently landed a three-year deal.
  • Both players posted poor shot-share numbers at 5v5  last season. The only two players that Letestu did well with last season was Lander (123 minutes, 50% GF%, 50% CF%) and Kassian (314 minutes, 55% GF%, 49.2% CF%).
  • Hendricks was often their linemate, and was a bit of a drag on their shot-share. Without Hendricks, in 184 minutes, Letestu/Kassian posted a GF% of 50% and a CF% of 50.3%. Not too shabby. This should be a better fourth line with Hendricks moving on. My guess is Brad Malone gets a long look.

Wingers that will likely get longer looks:

• Strome
  • My expectations are really low. He can play center, but only against lesser competition. And he can play wing, as a complementary guy in the top six. He’s coming off of a pretty bad season where he was healthy-scratched at times. I suspect he might get a long look on the top line. Mostly to make us feel better after losing Eberle for him.
• Puljujarvi
  • He hasn’t shown enough at the AHL level to warrant a long look, but there’s the whole draft pedigree thing. Hoping he makes the transition, but I always prefer letting guys simmer in the minors first. I can see him getting ice time with Jokinen, but not sure he’d be able to handle the tough minutes.
• Slepyshev
  • Skates well and loves to shoot. He’d my pick for the second line with Lucic and Draisaitl. And seriously, give this guy some powerplay time on the second unit.
• Caggiula
  • I’ll be honest, I’m not completely sold on this player. His production was pretty poor at 5v5. As long as the Oilers keep him on the wings and not at center, he’ll be okay. Not bad on the penalty kill last year either.

The other wingers that are likely to get a shot: Khaira, Pakarinen, Malone, Rattie and Yamamoto. Should make for some good competition in training camp, especially in the bottom six group which was terrible last year.

Data: Hockey Analysis

I joined Lowetide on Monday morning on TSN 1260 to talk all things Oilers. Clip is below and starts around the 20 minute mark.

Couple things we touched on, along with related links:

• Eberle/Strome trade
  • First Look: Ryan Strome – The Copper & Blue
• Signing of Kris Russell. Couple things I published this season below.
  • Trading Kris Russell – The Copper & Blue
  • Holding Back McDavid – The Copper & Blue
• Free agency, and keeping expectations low. I mentioned Cody Franson as a potential target.
  • Should the Leafs Bring Back Cody Franson? – The Leafs Nation
  • And it looks like there are some interesting players available who did not receive qualifying offers.

I joined Lowetide on Monday morning on TSN 1260 to talk all things Oilers. Clip is below, and starts around the 20 minute mark.

Topics we discussed:

• Oilers protection list. This team really has nothing to worry about, and as I wrote last week, they need to be more aggressive and leverage this draft to take advantage of other teams and address their own needs.
• Off-season game plans and targets.
• Mob-boss type approach that McPhee and his staff need to take drafting a team for Las Vegas. Seriously wish there was more of this, and more competitiveness among general managers.
• Side note: I always find it funny how GM’s expect players to have a win-at-all costs mentality, when they themselves are typically so passive when putting together a roster. I really believe the game could take significant steps if managers were more ruthless with one another.

I joined Lowetide on Monday morning on TSN 1260 to talk Oilers and their offseason plans. Clip is below and starts around the 20 minute mark.

Something I mentioned on air to Al which I should probably expand on is the disappointing post-season run.

Maybe I shouldn’t complain that we got to see playoff hockey after 11 years and 13 games in total. We did get some fantastic performances from Cam Talbot and Leon Draisaitl and Oscar Klefbom. And the club was one win away from the conference finals.

But make no mistake, this was a missed opportunity.

The western conference, in my mind, was wide open with no clear favorites all season. If there was a year to go all in, this was probably the one. Instead, the Oilers didn’t make any significant trades to improve their chances and I think some of their flaws, that were evident all season, cost them against the Ducks.

The defence in particular, while more experienced and healthier than years past, was an issue for the team, yet it wasn’t addressed going into the playoffs. Instead,  the Oilers gave away some of their depth to shore up their center position, which didn’t exactly work out either.

In their 13 playoff games, the Oilers were outscored 24-21 at 5v5, a pretty weak 46.67% goal-share. Their shot-shares were one of the worst among the playoff teams, with a score-adjusted Corsi For% of 48.73% and a Fenwick For% of 46.92%. Their 93.18% team save percentage at 5v5 was around league average, and was a big reason why, along with their powerplay, they won seven playoff games.

Now to get back into the same position, they’ll have to replicate the success they had in the regular season (i.e., two players in the top 10 league scoring, top 10 goaltending, +26 goal differential at 5v5) and hope that the roster stays as healthy as it did in 2016/17. We see how quickly championship windows can open and close because of injuries (Tampa Bay) and poor roster management (Dallas), so it’s crucial that the Oilers do everything possible to make the most of their opportunity with McDavid on the roster.

I want to remain optimistic that the Oilers can be in the same spot as they were this year. But losing four of their last five playoff games, allowing one of the highest rates of shots against and absolutely collapsing in game five is concerning. This off-season has to be about addressing their needs, especially on defence, and building a legitimate contender.

Data: Natural Stat Trick