In the first three games of their series against the Los Angeles Kings, the Edmonton Oilers have really had their way with their penalty kill. The Oilers have scored seven powerplay goals already by generating the highest rate of shots and scoring chances, and converting on 20.59 percent of their shots.
It shouldn’t be overly surprising to see the Oilers powerplay produce as the group has remained healthy and finished with the second highest rate of goals per hour during the regular season (10.53 per hour). Their success could be considered sustainable as their rate of unblocked shot attempts (or Fenwick, a proxy for scoring chances) and shots on goal were consistently one of the highest in the league. And thanks to the star power up front, and the chemistry they’ve built over the last few seasons together, the powerplay posted a team shooting percentage of 16.89 percent.
The Kings penalty kill was supposed to be one of their strengths heading into the playoffs, as the team allowed the second lowest rate of goals against during the regular season (5.37 per hour), second only to the Carolina Hurricanes. What might have been overlooked is the fact that their penalty kill results relied heavily on their goaltending, which ranked first in the league with a team save percentage of 90.65 percent. Among 70 goalies who played at least 75 minutes on the penalty kill, Cam Talbot ranked second with a 91.0 percent save percentage, while David Rittich ranked ninth with a save percentage of 89.5 percent.
An underlying issue was that the Kings actually performed pretty poorly in front of their goaltending, allowing the tenth highest rate of shots against (57.46 per hour) and the twelfth highest rate of unblocked shot attempts per hour (83.36 per hour). So while the Kings penalty kill results were great, they weren’t exactly sustainable – and its falling apart at the worst time.
Here’s a quick look at the Kings rate of shots against per hour over the course of the regular season, broken out by rolling ten-game segments. The blue line across represents the league-average rate of shots against (55.05 per hour).
While the Kings did have some stretches where they were allowing a rate of shots that were below the league average, they were typically well above. At multiple points of the regular season, they were one of the worst teams in the league when it came to suppressing shots against, allowing over 70 shots against per hour. So it’s really not all that surprising to see their penalty kill results fall off a cliff in these first three games.
So far in the 2024 playoffs, the Kings penalty kill is allowing the highest rate of shots against and the second rate of unblocked shot attempts against in the league. Their goaltending, which was good during the regular season, has completely regressed – their team save percentage currently sits at 79.41 percent. Facing a lot of shots, playing a ton of minutes, and the general grind of the regular season can do that to you.
The other bad news for the Kings is that they should probably keep their expectations of their powerplay low as well.
They have yet to score with the man-advantage, going 0-for-10 in these first three games. And again, they might be looking at their regular season results for motivation, as they finished with the tenth highest rate of goals-for (8.40 per hour) in the league, and fourth highest in the west. But again, these results couldn’t be considered sustainable as they ranked 20th in terms of generating unblocked shot attempts per hour and 27th when it came to generating shots on goal. The Kings definitely have some talented forwards who can convert on their chances. The problem is that they’ve been terrible at consistently generating those chances. And again – things are falling off at the worst time.
The Kings’ special teams have some major underlying issues, and it’ll be up to the Oilers’ coaching staff and players to capitalize now.
Joined Jessica Ng and Min Dhariwal on CBC Radio Active this evening to preview game three between the Edmonton Oilers and the Los Angeles Kings. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2024, April 26)
Other topics we discussed:
The first two games, what’s gone well and what the challenges have been.
Dylan Holloway’s performance in game two, his NHL journey so far, and the pressure of making an impact as a first round draft pick.
Stuart Skinner’s play, and the issues both teams are having playing defence.
The other series underway in the NHL.
Bob Cole’s passing, his impact to the game, and favorite memories. The Todd Marchant goal in 1997 will always be legendary for me, and Cole was a big part of that.
Couple other notes.
This series between the Oilers and Kings has been a pretty high-event one so far. Both teams had solid defensive numbers in the regular season, with the Oilers ranking fifth best in the league allowing 27.84 shots against per hour (all situations) and the Kings ranking fourth (27.70). But so far this post season, both clubs are allowing some of the highest rates among the playoff teams. Edmonton is at 30.95 shots against per hour and the Kings are at 37.34.
The Kings have scored all nine of their goals at even-strength (5v5). The Oilers only have six, with the other four coming on the powerplay. We know the referees gradually stop making calls as the series progresses, so the Oilers need to figure things out at even-strength.
Among the 19 goalies who have so far played this post-season, Skinner ranks 15th with an 0.857 save percentage (all situations) and Talbot ranks 13th with 0.867. Both goalies played a lot of minutes this regular season, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them burnout and have their backups come in at some point. They’re good, NHL-caliber goalies, but they’re not going to steal you games in the playoffs.
Talbot has been the better goalie at even-strength so far. Skinner ranks dead last with a goals saved above average (GSAA) of -3.56.
I’m also not overly surprised that the Kings allowed four powerplay goals against in the first two games. While it’s true that they allowed the lowest rate of goals against during the regular season, it was largely driven by their goaltending. The Kings were allowing a higher-than-average rate of shots and scoring chances against all season, so it was a matter of time before they got burnt, especially if their goaltending slipped even slightly.
With the first round of the playoffs set to begin, I wanted to get a sense of how both teams finished the season, what their key drivers were and how individual players performed.
The Oilers we know had a great season, going 14-7-4 in their final twenty-five games of the regular season, a points percentage of 0.640 – eighth best in the league and fourth best in the west behind Dallas (0.740), Nashville (0.740) and Colorado (0.660). The Oilers goal-share in all situations over these last twenty five games was fourth highest in the league (57.69 percent), posting a +24 goal-differential due in large part to their even-strength play. The powerplay and penalty kill slipped a bit in this last stretch, but was still around league average. More on that in a minute.
The Kings had similar results to the Oilers over their final twenty-five games, going 15-9-1 – which translates into a 0.620 points percentage that ranked tenth highest in the league. Similar to the Oilers, they posted an excellent all-situations goal-share in this period (57.55 percent), with a +21 goal differential that was fourth highest in the league. A lot of their success was at even-strength, as well as on their penalty kill.
Even-strength (5v5)
Here’s how the two teams performed at even-strength (5v5) over their final twenty-five games. Both clubs ranked near the top of the league for the majority of the metrics.
Team (5v5, last 25 games)
Oilers
Kings
Points%
0.640
0.620
Corsi For%
54.82
51.06
Fenwick For%
54.47
52.45
xGoals For%
56.34
53.39
Goals For%
60.67
61.36
Shooting%
9.32
9.64
Save%
92.45
93.40
The two clubs are fairly evenly matched when it comes to shot-share metrics, with both teams ranking near the top of the league for most of the season. For example, the Oilers posted a Corsi For percentage of 55.52 percent over the course of the full season (third highest in the league), while the Kings ranked fourth with 54.68 percent. Where the Kings have excelled at is on the defensive side of things, as their rate of shots and chances against have consistently been in the top five all season. Also worth noting that while the Kings full-season shooting percentage of 7.82 percent ranked 26th in the league, they had the ninth best shooting percentage over these last twenty five games. Full details on how the Oilers and Kings rank within the western conference can be found here.
Goaltending (5v5)
Both teams received excellent goaltending to end the season, with the Kings ranking first with a save percentage of 93.40 percent, while the Oilers ranked sixth with 92.45 percent. Below are the Oilers and Kings goalies from the last twenty-five games, with their rankings for each metric among the 61 goaltenders who played at least 250 minutes.
Goalie (5v5), last 25 games
GP
TOI
Save%
GSAA
High-danger Save%
Cam Talbot
19
942
92.4% (17th)
4.88 (15th)
79.1% (41st)
David Rittich
6
281
96.7% (1st)
6.76 (8th)
96.6% (1st)
Stuart Skinner
16
703
91.7% (27th)
1.31 (27th)
88.1% (10th)
Calvin Pickard
12
540
93.6% (10th)
5.88 (11th)
81.4% (38th)
Along with the strong numbers posted by Rittich in limited minutes, the other thing that stands out is the high workload for Talbot. He played the 11th highest minutes in the league among goalies, and he didn’t get much of a break in this last stretch, playing over 77 percent of the team’s total ice time. Skinner on the other hand saw his workload reduced, playing 56 percent of his team’s total ice time, and posting average numbers in this recent period. Considering that Skinner played the fifth highest minutes in the league over the full season, he definitely needed the break. And hopefully he doesn’t burn out like he did last post-season.
Special Teams
While the Edmonton Oilers powerplay posted the second highest rate of goals over the full season (10.53 goals per hour) supported by the fourth highest rate of shots (62.33 shots per hour), their performance and results over the final twenty five games of the season wasn’t nearly as good. Over this recent period, the Oilers powerplay ranked 13th in the league, scoring 8.46 goals per hour. A big reason for this was their decline in rate of shots, which ranked 15th with 54.21 shots per hour.
The Kings powerplay was slightly better than Edmonton’s, scoring at a rate of 8.97 goals per hour in their last twenty five games and ranking 11th. But this appears to be largely unsustainable as they consistently generated some of the lowest rates of shots in the league all season. It’s very similar to how they did at the end of last season as well.
Powerplay (Last 25 games)
Oilers
Kings
Shots for/60
54.21 (15th)
43.72 (27th)
Goals for/60
8.46 (13th)
8.97 (11th)
Team shooting%
15.60% (13th)
20.51% (2nd)
Both team’s had decent results on the penalty kill to close the season, with the Kings allowing the tenth lowest rate of goals against per hour (6.99) and the Oilers ranking 14th (7.65). The big issue for Edmonton was their goaltending, as it ranked 26th in the league with a 82.50 save percentage, while the Kings goaltending ranked 7th. And these recent goaltending numbers for both teams is consistent with what they posted over the full season.
Penalty Kill (Last 25 games)
Oilers
Kings
Shots against/60
43.70 (5th)
56.38 (20th)
Goals against/60
7.65 (14th)
6.99 (10th)
Team save%
82.50% (26th)
87.61% (7th)
Skaters (5v5)
Another thing I wanted to see ahead of the series was how the players on each team did in terms of on-ice shot and goal differentials at even-strength (5v5) over their teams final twenty-five games. Just to get a sense of which players are playing well, but might not be getting the results. And which players might be getting unsustainable results.
Below are all of the Oilers skaters, split by forwards and defencemen, and sorted by their total ice time.
The top end of the Oilers roster is what will drive results in the post-season as they’ve consistently outshot and outchanced opponents, and typically against the top players of other teams. It’s encouraging to see that McLeod was getting lots of opportunities, even though the results haven’t been there. He’s going to be critical for the team and should (hopefully) form an effective third line with Holloway and Perry.
I do also wonder if the team is really losing anything if Kane and Janmark aren’t healthy and ready to go for game one of the series. Both players tend to be a drag on the team’s performance numbers at even-strength and their results haven’t been very good. Might be better to run with Holloway on the team. I also wouldn’t count on guys like Henrique, Brown or Carrick, as the Oilers tend to play more often without the puck with them on the ice.
On the backend, there should be some concern with the Kulak-Desharnais partnership as they performed very poorly over the last stretch of the games. The coaching staff was trying them out against tougher competition, and giving Nurse/Ceci a break, so that could be what’s driving the numbers here. It’ll be very interesting to see how the coaching staff manages the minutes among defencemen, as it appears as though the Oilers really only have one reliable pairing in Ekholm and Bouchard.
And here’s a quick glance at the Kings skaters, again split by position and sorted by ice time over the final twenty five games of the season.
Danault is the player to watch on the Kings, as he played the most against elite competition among Kings forwards and posted excellent shot-share numbers against this group. If the Kings have any chance of winning, he’ll need to play a lot against the Oilers top lines. Kempe is another one to watch and it’ll be interesting to see how often the Kings target Nurse and Ceci with his line. I do feel like there’s some Kings players to target here as a few of them are great at generating shots, but not really good at generating scoring threats consistently as reflected by their expected goal numbers. Specifically Dubois and Arvidsson – both of which were brought in to solve the Kings goal-scoring issues but have bounced around the line up.
Thoughts
While the Oilers should win this series, I think it’ll be a lot closer than people expect. The Kings were very good defensively this season, and have two capable goaltenders. The Oilers do have the higher-end talent, but I’d still have concerns with the defence core, which tends to struggle playing with the bottom six forwards and could be targeted by the Kings coaching staff. I’d also be concerned with Skinner’s performance as he had one of the highest workloads in the league this season, and could potentially start to fade as the series goes on.
Whatever happens, the Oilers have put themselves in an excellent spot and have a real chance of winning a few rounds because of their top end talent. If the coaching staff gets their line match-ups right and address their weaknesses as quickly as possible, they should remain competitive.
I joined Alicia Asquith on the CBC Edmonton News to discuss the playoffs and preview game seven between Winnipeg and Nashville. Clip is here and starts at the 17:30 mark: CBC Edmonton News (2018, May 10)
Topics we covered:
The Jets draft/development history, an area of the game that the Oilers still struggle with.
Head to head match-up between the Jets and the Predators, and what the numbers have been like over the first six games of the series.
The Vegas Golden Knights and what’s made them successful this post-season.
Amazing what a three-game winning streak can do. Since the Oilers embarrassing streak of three straight home shutout losses, the team has bounced back scoring 15 goals to defeat the Flames, Blue Jackets and Panthers. In those three wins, the Oilers scored 14 straight goals before allowing one against the Panthers.
Shots, Shots, Shots
The Oilers continue to get more shots on net compared to last season.
The #Oilers outshot an opponent for the 11th time in 24GP last night. Last season outshot teams just 11 times in 48 GP
The question becomes how good are the shots that the Oilers are taking. Michael Parkatti of Boys on the Bus has been tracking shot quality. His work is well worth reading as shot quality is a critical factor for team success.
Oilers also led fenwick 34-31. Shot attempts within 25 feet were 14-7 Oilers.
The best part about winning is that the Oilers aren’t being mentioned in trade rumors. The majority of the stories being written are about the small things the Oilers are doing well, such as the powerplay and penalty kill.
After going 2 for 5 on the PP last night the #Oilers have jumped to 8th in NHL (21.5%). The PK has climbed from 30th to 14th (83.0%)
The other positive of the winning streak is that Devan Dubnyk can continue playing without the chatter of Ilya Bryzgalov taking over. Pretty sure if the Oilers had lost any of the past three games since Bryzgalov joined the Oilers roster, there would be all sorts of content produced about the Russian netminder. I think the signing of Bryzgalov is a good one for the Oilers as they definitely enhanced their tandem. But the additional narratives about Bryzgalov’s character and his run-ins with the media are a bit much. This was quite apparent when he first arrived in Edmonton as very little was asked about his on-ice performance and more about his personality and attitude.
Realistic Expectations
But with all of the positives coming out, there is a harsh reality that the poor start to the season has already cost the team the playoffs. To make the playoffs in the Western Conference, a team would need about 95 points. For the duration of the season (58 games) the Oilers would need to win games at the same rate as the best teams in the league to make the playoffs. Possible, sure, but the odds are firmly against this roster.
The advanced stats also suggest that the Oilers are headed to their eighth straight year out of the playoffs. Tyler Dellow put together a piece comparing team Corsi rates at the quarter pole of the season and how it’s a fairly clear indication of whether or not a team makes it to the playoffs.
I can’t say I’m disappointed. My expectation going in to the season was that the Oilers would finish between 10th and 12th place. This was mainly due to the fact the Oilers hired a new coach, started the season with one legit centreman (Boyd Gordon) and that the defense was weak compared to other Western Conference teams.
I joined Alicia Asquith on the CBC Edmonton News to discuss the playoffs and preview game seven between Winnipeg and Nashville. Clip is here and starts at the 17:30 mark: 
The SuperFan 