NHL

Racing

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Couple notes from the first four games of the western conference finals. Ahead in the race to the finals, the Oilers have a massive opportunity tonight to close things off.

  • The Oilers results have been excellent at even-strength, outscoring the Stars 9-3. Shooting percentage is close to 11 percent and the team save percentage is over 96 percent – both well above normal levels for the league and for the team.
  • The Oilers underlying shot-share numbers at even-strength have been fine. While their adjusted Corsi For percentage is at 49 percent and their Expected Goals for percentage has been 47 percent, it’s largely due to the fact that they’ve been leading for about 69 percent of the total time at even-strength.
  • When the score has been within one goal (about 132 minutes of 192 total), the Oilers have posted a Corsi For percentage of just under 53 percent, and an Expected Goals For percentage of 51 percent.
  • Stuart Skinner has arguably been the best player for Edmonton. After a shaky start, and posting shorthanded numbers similar to his career levels, he’s significantly improved. Question remains if he can maintain this level, or if he fades off – similar to what’s happened in the past when he’s playing too many minutes.
  • Oilers powerplay has been great – five goals in about 20 minutes translates to a scoring rate of 14.42 goals per hour. That’s well above what they finished with in the regular season (8.90 per hour) and higher than the best powerplay (Winnipeg had 11.06 goals per hour). The Oilers rate of shots is slightly higher than where they were in the regular season, so it’s too early to panic about their powerplay falling off.
  • The penalty kill results are much better now that the goalie is making saves. Who knew.

Below is how the Oilers skaters have performed at even-strength against the Stars so far.

Couple more notes:

  • It makes a lot of sense to have Stecher take a break. He’s getting a lot of attention for stabilizing Nurse and being a “gamer”. But he’s been on the ice for a lot of shots against relative to his teammates. Nurse has also struggled, but continues to see a lot of ice time. Not sure if Nurse playing with Kulak, which is expected today with Ekholm returning, makes a lot of sense. Their on-ice shot share numbers have been poor in the regular season and in the playoffs.
  • Losing Hyman is massive. The team tends to perform well with him on the ice, regardless of who’s on the ice with him – a rare driver in the league. Kane is going to get more minutes, but I wouldn’t expect him to last long, especially if he’s playing against better competition.
  • That entire bottom six has not been good this round. While the Oilers have outscored the Stars 3-1 at even-strength without McDavid or Draisaitl, their underlying shot share numbers have been dreadful. The team’s Corsi For percentage without one or both of the glimmer twins is at 40 percent and the Expected Goals percentage is at 37 percent.
  • Adding J. Skinner to the forward group would be recommended. Or perhaps moving Nugent-Hopkins to a third line to see if he can help others. In about 15 minutes away from Draisaitl and McDavid this round, RNH’s on-ice shot share numbers have been over 55 percent – he’s been excellent this series.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Direct range: Oilers heading into the playoffs in poor form

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The Edmonton Oilers are heading into the playoffs in not-so-great shape.

Over the final twenty-five games of the season (so since around late February), the Oilers had a record of 14-10-1, a points percentage of 0.580 that ranked 14th in the league. Their even-strength (5v5) goal-share of 43 percent (43 goals for, 57 goals against) ranked 27th in the league, only ahead of New Jersey, San Jose, Chicago, Nashville, and Minnesota.

Injuries were obviously an issue and played a role in the team’s shooting percentage, which ranked 30th during this period, and save percentage, which ranked 27th. But it’s important to note that even before this final stretch the Oilers weren’t too great in either of those categories as they were below league average pretty much all season. And because of this, the Oilers are heading into the playoffs with one of the worst goal differentials at even-strength (-3) among playoff teams.

The good news is that despite the injuries, the Oilers posted decent shot-share numbers with their Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals for percentage ranking higher up in the league. So, there’s reasons to believe that their goal-share could improve. But it’s important to note that their shot-share numbers were largely star driven, as the team could only post a 48 percent Corsi For percentage and a 46 percent Expected Goals for percentage when McDavid and Draisaitl were not on the ice. So it’s hard to have confidence in the depth players being real drivers at evens. Should note here that that I excluded the games when the glimmer twins were not in the lineup.

The other major issue heading into the playoffs is the Oilers goaltending, which has been inconsistent all season and below league average levels. And it’s where the Kings have a significant edge.

Among the 62 goalies who played at least 1000 minutes this season, or at about 20 games (all situations), Darcy Kuemper ranked fourth overall in terms of save percentage (0.921) and goals-saved above average (GSAA, +26.76), only behind Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy. Stuart Skinner on the other hand ranked 39th with a 0.897 save percentage and 42nd with a GSAA of -4.44. Among the true regular goalies (ones who played at least 50 games this year) Skinner ranks near the bottom of the list. And for those wondering, Pickard ranks 24th in terms of save percentage (in the list of 62 goalies) and 26th in GSAA.

Should note that both Los Angeles and Edmonton were very good at limiting shots and chances against at even-strength and the penalty kill this season. One team had goaltending and had a shot at the division title. The other one had Stuart Skinner. It’s a major weak spot for the roster, and a position that Oilers management chose not to address last off-season or at the trade deadline.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Covering Blots: Digging into whether Darnell Nurse has been good enough for the Oilers this season

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Defenceman Darnell Nurse has had a lot of highs and lows throughout his season (and career) with the Edmonton Oilers.

Early in the campaign, he posted some of the team’s worst on-ice shot-share numbers and goal-differentials. But by early December we saw his performance and results turn around after the coaching staff played him more often with Leon Draisaitl, who has had an MVP-level season. As the year progressed, Nurse made some great plays and contributed on the score sheet. But that would again be followed up with blunders in his own zone, leading to opponents sustaining pressure and generating scoring chances. His game has recently improved, which is great considering the playoffs are coming up. But it remains to be seen if he can continue playing at this level.

This all led me to a pretty straightforward question: is Darnell Nurse having a good season?

To determine if he meets the threshold of “good”, I produced some basic criteria for a defenceman that is being paid $9 million per year:

  • Must be playing regular minutes against the other team’s top competition at even-strength (5v5), and top minutes on the penalty kill.
  • Must have a positive impact on the team’s shot and scoring chance differentials at even-strength (5v5).
  • Must have a positive impact when playing with the team’s depth players, as in when McDavid and Draisaitl are on the bench.

There could be other criteria, but what I have above are things that correlate to scoring goals and winning games. It’s basically the bare minimum.

Ice-time and Usage

Nurse is currently averaging just under 23 minutes a game this season (in all situations), which ranks third among Oilers defencemen. And he ranks first in the average number of even-strength minutes (19 minutes a game). What’s interesting is that 25 percent of his even-strength minutes this season are against elite competition, according to the methodology used by Puck IQ. This is a drop from last season when Nurse played 30 percent of his minutes against top competition.

The table below shows a steady decline in Nurse’s proportion of ice time against elite-level competition (orange bars) throughout his career, as he was over 40 percent just three seasons ago. The 25 percent proportion he has this season would be one of the lowest in his career, indicating that the coaching staff is well aware of his deficiencies, and are actively trying to put him in a position to succeed.

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Another thing worth considering is the steady decline in Nurse’s minutes on the penalty kill. Nurse is averaging below two minutes a game this season, which is a significant drop off from the last four seasons when he was regularly on the top penalty-kill unit. The graph below shows his average ice time per season over the course of his career, and is a good indicator of the trust the coaching staff has in the player.

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Nurse’s Impact at 5v5

Below are Nurse’s relative-to-team shot-differential numbers by season. I tend to use Corsi, a proxy for puck possession, and Fenwick and Expected goals as a proxy for scoring chances.

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This is going to be the third straight season where the Edmonton Oilers have seen their shot and scoring chances numbers take a hit when Nurse has been on the ice.

Yes, he does play a lot of minutes and sees top competition. But as we saw above, those hard minutes are being reduced. He’s clearly not a player that can be relied on to drive play, and he’ll need to be with a strong defensive partner and high-end forwards as much as possible for him to provide value to the team at even-strength. Which leads to the next criteria.

Impact when playing with depth players

When the Oilers have Nurse on the ice with the depth players, so no McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, the Oilers have posted some pretty poor performance numbers and results. Their Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals For percentage both drop down to 46 percent when the depth players are playing with Nurse, which, as mentioned above, is why the coaching staff was okay with getting Nurse away from them earlier in the season.

The good news is that the results have been good, with a goal differential of plus-four (goal share of 55 percent), but that’s been largely luck-driven. The team tends to play less often with the puck when Nurse is out there with depth players, so it’s hard to have confidence in these results over the long run.

Final Thoughts

While we sometimes see some great plays from Nurse and his name on the scoresheet, it’s hard to ignore his usage, performance and results over the course of the full season. Expectations are rightfully high for the player, and unfortunately, he’s not meeting some basic criteria that correlates with winning games. The hope is that he can play well into the playoffs, but it’s hard to have confidence when we look at the data over a full season.

Based on his salary and role on the team, you would expect Darnell Nurse to be one of the best defencemen in the league, though you could make the argument that he might not even be the third-best defenceman on the Oilers. That’s a problem for management to address this off-season.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, PuckIQ

Also posted at Oilersnation.

The Oilers have gone from red hot to a hot mess

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The Edmonton Oilers have been very poor since the 4 Nations Face-Off. In 10 games since the break, they have three wins and seven losses, having been outscored 27-40 in all situations.

Even-strength (5v5) has especially been awful as the club went from a +14 goal differential heading into the break to now sitting at even. Put another way, it took them 55 games to have a goal-share of 53 percent, which was eighth best in the league. And all of that progress, especially what they did in January, has been wiped out in the last ten games. They now rank 18th in the league with a goal share of 50 percent. Not exactly looking like a playoff threat. A graph showing the Oilers cumulative goal differential this season at even-strength is below.

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The drop-off in results has been driven by their inability to control the flow and their spending less and less time with the puck. Prior to the break, the Oilers had some of the best shot-share numbers in the league, hovering around the 55 percent mark when it came to Corsi percentage (which is a proxy for puck possession) and Expected Goals (which is a proxy for scoring chances). But since the break, these numbers have fallen to league average levels, with their Expected Goals percentage even dropping below 50 percent.

For context, below is the Oilers underlying shot-share metrics in rolling 10-game segments. I’ve added a marker at the 55 game mark, which is the first game after the Four Nations Faceoff tournament. The other low point came around the game 34 mark, which was in late December when the team was struggling. In January, the team turned things around and started playing closer to what was expected. But things appear to have fallen off again. The recent numbers are well below where they were prior to the break and an indication that the tactics and process the coaching staff has in place for even-strength play isn’t working. The results are suffering because of it, and it has to be addressed as soon as possible.

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There are two issues to consider when trying to understand why these numbers are falling off.

The first is that the team’s goaltending has been a weak spot for the team for a long time now, and hasn’t at any point this season been at or above league average levels. Because of this weakness in net, the team seems to be playing a little too safe now and not pushing for offence as frequently. Instead of taking chances and really leveraging the offensive talent they have up front, there are a few too many conservative plays happening, especially in this recent stretch of games.

The switch to playing more conservatively at even-strength is reflected in the team’s declining rate of generating shot attempts. Before the tournament break, the Oilers were generating 62.6 shot attempts per hour — one of the highest in the league. In the last ten games, that rate has dropped by 8.8 percent to 57.04 shot attempts per hour — which is slightly below league average.  Worth mentioning that the team’s rate of shot attempts against has remained steady all season.

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And as I wrote about a month ago, the team has also been getting a lot more shots from their defencemen, which isn’t ideal considering the probability of scoring drops off the further you’re away from the net. There appears to be more hesitancy to make plays and take some risks to get the puck moving into high danger scoring areas. Instead, the team is taking shot attempts from distance, and hoping the best for rebounds. This is a weird tactical issue that various coaching staffs have tried in Edmonton, and it just doesn’t work well.

Considering the team’s championship aspirations, and the importance of home-ice, it’s critical that the Oilers coaching staff recognize the issues and make the necessary adjustments. The chase for a division title is slowly slipping away, but there is still time to make some ground.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Blot placement

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With the NHL regular season to re-start this weekend and with the trade deadline coming up, I wanted to take a quick look at the Oilers roster to see where the weaknesses are and what should be addressed by the management group. The reality of operating in a cap system is that you have to pick and choose where you want your strengths and weaknesses to be, and managers have to try to mitigate their risks as much as possible.

My approach is to take a look at each individual player’s actual results (their on-ice goal-share) as well as their underlying number such as their on-ice shot differentials and expected goals differentials. Combining this with their on-ice shooting and save percentage, you can start to gauge whose results are sustainable or not. And which players are more likely to have success.

Below are two tables showing the players on-ice numbers at even-strength (5v5) so far this season, with a basic heat map applied to show each player compares with their cohort. Tables are sorted by each player’s total ice time.

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Thanks to Draisaitl and McDavid, the Oilers continue to have one of the best top-six forward groups in the league. The issue remains with the bottom six group. While they play an important role on the penalty kill, they tend to spend a lot of time without the puck and get out-chanced regularly at even-strength. What really stands out is how poorly McDavid’s on-ice goal differential has been. Despite posting some excellent on-ice shot differentials, he’s sitting at only +5  – and it’s largely driven by his on-ice save percentage. The Oilers team save percentage currently ranks 19th in the league.

On the defensive side, there’s definitely room for improvement, especially with the group’s depth. Not sure how confident I’d be if guys like Emberson, Stecher or Klingberg have to play more minutes as they haven’t done so well in their minutes.

I’d also be concerned about Nurse and ensuring that he has a partner who can make up for his deficiencies. Nurse is a player who needs to on the ice with top end players as his on-ice numbers often take a hit when he’s not with one of the glimmer twins. Interesting to note that when McDavid has been with Nurse on the ice (and away from Draisaitl), his goal differential is -4 at even-strength (4 goals for, 8 goals against). And that’s partially driven by the fact that the Oilers tend to get outshot and outchanced with Nurse on the ice. Even McDavid isn’t immune from Nurse’s impact.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Tracking the Western conference – As of January 31, 2025

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Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

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And here’s how things are looking in the eastern conference.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Drawbacks of the Edmonton Oilers having two five-man units

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I recently wrote about how the Edmonton Oilers have recently been getting a lot more out of defenceman Darnell Nurse, as his performance numbers and results have been significantly better than earlier this season. And it’s largely driven by the fact that he’s being deployed a lot more often with Leon Draisaitl’s line. Full article is at Oilersnation.

This had me wondering if deploying Nurse exclusively with Draisaitl’s line and continuing to deploy the Bouchard/Ekholm tandem almost exclusively with McDavid’s line actually makes sense. The results should be great for those two five-man units as there’s plenty of skill and talent there. But wouldn’t that make the rest of the Oilers roster easier to exploit at even-strength?

Looking at the on-ice data, it appears as though the Oilers have recently been exposed, making them an easier target for team’s with depth and skill spread across the lineup.

In the last ten games, without the McDavid/Bouchard/Ekholm set or the Draisaitl/Nurse set, the Oilers have posted the following numbers at even-strength (5v5):

  • Corsi for percentage: 40.74%
  • Expected goals for percentage: 37.24%
  • Goals for percentage: 40.00% (4 goals for, 6 goals against)

The Oilers have played 138 minutes without their two five-man units, which was about 28 percent of the team’s total time in the last ten games. Two concerns with that:

  • The star players are playing a lot more, likely because the Oilers coaching staff urgently needed to make some ground in the standings. I’d expect their minutes to taper off eventually as the season wears on and to stay fresh for the playoffs. But if the depth players are constantly getting outscored, who knows.
  • That’s a good chunk of time that another team could target and exploit, and make life difficult for Edmonton. The Oilers third and fourth lines do a decent job defending, but they generate and score a lot less.

What’s also interesting is how the team’s depth players (i.e., the team without their two five-man units) are impacting the team’s overall shot-share numbers (Corsi For percentage) as well as their share of expected goals.

This graph shows the Oilers Corsi For percentage, with score effects factored in (solid line), over rolling ten game segments. They were at one point one of the best teams in the league, hovering around the 55 percent mark. But it’s gradually declined closer to the break-even mark.

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And this graph shows the Oilers expected goals share, which is trending even worse. Sitting below 50 percent in the last ten games is a little alarming. And it wouldn’t be surprising if their actual results at even-strength start to slip in the coming weeks.

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I don’t think there’s a quick, internal solution here either. Having Nurse play more often with the third and fourth lines isn’t going to work as we know the numbers have been poor in those situations. Plus he’s playing some of his best hockey right now, and I doubt he’d want to play fewer minutes with the star players. My guess is the Oilers will need to give their third pairing an offensive boost, which the Oilers appear to be addressing by acquiring Alec Regula off waivers (draft profile here). It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out and if the third and fourth lines, along with the third defence pair, can improve their on-ice numbers at even-strength.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

The redeployment of Darnell Nurse is leading to some of his best hockey for the Oilers

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The Edmonton Oilers made significant progress in November and now have 32 points in 27 games—a points percentage of 0.593 that ranks seventh in the Western Conference and fourth in the division. Their first ten games of the season really set them back (4-5-1), as they were, at one point, 13th in the conference and only ahead of San Jose in the Pacific.

There are plenty of reasons for their resurgence, but one player in particular who has helped turn things around is defenceman Darnell Nurse. He’s been more noticeable recently (for good reasons) making some great plays on Saturday night against St. Louis and helping set up Corey Perry with a nifty pass for the opening goal.

Nurse had really been struggling early on this season, especially at even-strength (5v5). In 171 minutes over the first ten games of the year (up until October 30), he had a 25 percent on-ice goal-share (on the ice for three goals for and nine goals against). And he was posting some of the worst shot-share numbers on the team as opponents would more often outshoot and outchance the Oilers with Nurse on the ice. What really stood out in those first ten games was how almost every forward on the Oilers was posting better on-ice shot-share numbers when they were playing away from him (i.e., without Nurse on the ice), as Nurse’s performance was really dragging his teammates down.

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Since those first ten games, however, Nurse has been posting significantly better numbers with the team doing a better job controlling the flow of play and scoring chances with him on the ice. His on-ice shot-share numbers at even-strength are all above 53 percent and some of the best numbers on the team. The best part is that his actual results (i.e., goal-share/goal-differentials) have been excellent, as the team has posted a goal-share of 82 percent — nine goals for, two goals against with Nurse on the ice. That goal-share isn’t sustainable and will gradually decline, but his underlying shot-share numbers indicate that the Oilers are more likely to outscore opponents with Nurse on the ice if he continues to perform at this level.

Now this turnaround didn’t happen automatically, and it appears there have been some very strategic adjustments made by the Oilers coaching staff. There’s a lot of pressure on this team this season to win games and make a deep playoff run. And to also maintain the value of their players, especially those on heavy, long-term deals like Nurse. So, it behooves the coaching staff to recognize problems, find potential solutions to improve their odds of winning games and have the courage to carry through on them.

One solution to the Nurse performance problem has been more ice time with Leon Draisaitl.

As I had written about in late October, Nurse played a lot of his even-strength minutes with the depth forwards in the first ten games of the season – specifically the third and fourth lines. Of the 171 minutes Nurse was deployed for, about 35 percent was with Adam Henrique and 32 percent was with the fourth line (basically when McDavid, Draisaitl or Henrique weren’t on the ice). About 23 percent was with Leon Draisaitl and Nurse played the least often with McDavid’s line, as that top line has exclusively been deployed with the Evan Bouchard/Mattias Ekholm pairing – a five-man unit pretty much all season.

Since those first ten games Nurse’s deployment has significantly changed, with more of his time being spent with Draisaitl, and whoever is on the second line, and less time with the third and fourth lines. The table below splits Nurse’s season between his first ten games (up until October 30) and the last fourteen games (between October 31 and December 7). Note that Nurse did miss a few games with a head injury.

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What we see here is that Nurse’s overall proportion of ice time with Draisaitl has significantly increased from about 23 percent in the first ten games to just under 40 percent in the last fourteen games – essentially creating a second five-man unit for the coaching staff to deploy. Nurse’s proportion of ice time with Henrique has dropped from 34 percent to 26 percent. And his time with the fourth-line players dropped from 33 percent to just under 11 percent.

This re-adjustment of Nurse’s deployment makes a lot of sense as he’s now playing more often with a second line who he was performing well within the first ten games of the season. One of my findings back in late October was that while Nurse dragged the performance numbers of most of the forwards down, his numbers remained respectable with Draisaitl, Podkolzin and Arvidsson – the group that basically formed the second line. So far things are going well as Nurse is not only performing well in his increased minutes with Draisaitl and the second line, but also playing much better in the minutes with the depth players.

It’d be worth asking the Oilers coaching staff if this actually was a strategic plan to help Nurse’s performance numbers improve. And if players like Nurse, who are accustomed to playing with high-end players tend to play down to the level of their linemates. My thought is when a defenceman like Nurse is out with a fourth line, for example, they may be conserving their energy and risk-taking for when they get to play with higher-end linemates, but that’s something a coach or player can speak to.

For now, it’s interesting to see how a coaching staff has adjusted a player’s deployment, and potentially used data and underlying shot-share numbers to assist with decision-making. Recognizing deficiencies, identifying solutions, and having the courage to carry them out is critical for a team pushing for championship. Hopefully, there’s more to come – especially for a roster that hasn’t quite reached its potential yet.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Tracking the Western conference – As of November 30, 2024

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Much better results from the Edmonton Oilers this month as they moved from tenth in the west to seventh currently sitting with a points percentage of 0.583. They finished November with a record of 8-4-1, and ranked fourth in the league in terms of points percentage (0.654) only behind Minnesota, Toronto and Washington. What’s interesting is that their goal-differential during this recent stretch has only been even (28 goals for, 28 goals against). Considering their strong shot-share numbers, it probably should have been better. Could have also used some better goaltending. But all that matters for now are the points being accumulated, and the rise in the standings.

Below are the current even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

We’re starting to see teams fall into their places, just based on what their shot share numbers have been like. For example, Edmonton and Colorado had good shot-share numbers last month and ranked poorly. But things have turned around for both clubs in the last month, and they’ve gained ground in the west. And we’ve seen teams like Calgary and Anaheim who were getting outshot regularly but getting good results last month, start to crash down back to earth.

We’re also starting to see which teams have issues to address in net, especially those with championship aspirations. Edmonton, Colorado, Vegas and Vancouver may need to keep an eye on the goalie market, and it’ll be interesting to see which of them can turn things around.

Edmonton and Colorado also have their even-strength scoring issues to address, as both rank near the bottom the league when it comes to finishing chances. Colorado is also relying heavily on their special teams to bail their even-strength play out.

Also do wonder if we’ll see Winnipeg and especially Vegas fall in the standings, as both clubs have had issues controlling the flow of play, and rely heavily either on their goaltending (Winnipeg) or ability to finish chances (Vegas).

And I do think we’ll see Utah start to climb up. They’re posting solid shot-share numbers and have one of the best even-strength goal-shares in the league. The issue for them is that their special teams have been terrible. Their powerplay is generating very few chances and goals. And their penalty kill allows one of the highest rates of shots against, and is relying heavily on their goaltending to allow an average rate of goals against. If they can figure out special teams, they could be very good.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Glossary:

  • Points-percentage (Point%) – The total points accumulated divided by the points that were available, including extra time.
  • Corsi for percentage (CF%) – The proportion of all the shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., corsi for/(corsi for + corsi against). This is used as a proxy for possession and is the best at predicting a team’steam’s future share of goals (GF%). (Source: Hockey Great Tapes – Draglikepull)
  • Fenwick for percentage (FF%) – The proportion of all the unblocked shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Fenwick for/(Fenwick for + aenwick against). This is used as a proxy for shot quality and considers shot blocking a repeatable skill.
  • Expected goals for percentage (xGF%) – This is a weighting placed on every unblocked shot based on the probability of the shot becoming a goal. This depends on the type of shot, location and uses historical shot and goals data to come up with the probability for each unblocked shot.
  • Goals for percentage (GF%) – The proportion of all the goals that the team scored and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Goals for/(Goals for + goals against).
  • Shooting percentage (SH%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal that became goals (i.e., total goals divided by the total shots on goal).
  • Save percentage (SV%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal against that were saved (i.e., 1-(totals goals allowed divided by the total shots on goal against)).

Confidence levels

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The Edmonton Oilers currently rank 16th in the league with a 0.545 points percentage, and have been pretty mid at even-strength (5v5). Their goal differential has been steadily improving, but they’re currently at -3 (43 goals for, 46 goals against). They’re only shooting at 7.05 percent (26th in the league) and have a team save percentage of 90.25 percent (23rd in the league). Note that the league average shooting percentage over the last three seasons has been 8.55 percent and the save percentage has been 91.47 percent. More on that in a second.

The Oilers are currently posting some excellent shot-share numbers, near the top of the league when it comes to critical metrics like Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals For percentage. So in a perfect world, their current goal-share of 48.31 percent eventually reaches somewhere around 53 to 55 percent, which is around where they were last season and the prior three seasons. Getting there is going to require the team and save percentage bouncing back. But how much confidence should we have in one or both of those things happening?

Based just on what I’ve seen from the Oilers, I have a lot more confidence in the team’s shooting percentage turning around. They have the top end talent, they have some depth pieces who have a good track record of scoring goals. And they’ve been relatively healthy, but we’ll wait to see what the long-term prognosis is for Hyman and Arviddson. The goaltending on the other hand has been pretty suspect for a while now, and there’s been enough mediocre stretches to indicate that goaltending is never going to be truly elite. But are there numbers to back this up?

First, here’s a look at the Oilers cumulative team shooting percentage at even-strength this season and last season (2023/24). The gray line across represents the league average shooting percentage from the previous three seasons (2021-2024). What stands out here is that while the Oilers didn’t do a great job converting their chances early on last season, they eventually improved and were above league average rates for the most part. Not sure if the Oilers can replicate that this season, but with the talent up front, and a decent supporting cast, it’s more than likely.

Goaltending on the other hand had some issues last season, and the best they could ever reach was league average. Not a lot of times was the goaltending one of the league’s best last season, so it’s hard to expect them to steal games this year or go on a long stretch of high-end goaltending. Especially since it’s the same two goalies as last season. The most we can reasonably expect from Skinner and Pickard is league-average, and a lot has to break right even for that.

I do wonder what the Oilers front office is thinking and what they have more confidence in bouncing back: the team save percentage or the team shooting percentage? It’s clear both areas have cost them wins this season and there’s a sense that it’s the offensive side of things that have management more concerned. My thought is that the goaltending is what needs an upgrade, and hopefully soon considering the high expectations for the team.

Data: Natural Stat Trick