The First 10 Games

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With training camp completed and the regular season set to begin, there remains questions about the roster and how competitive they will be in 2015/2016. Depending on your tolerance and distribution of risks, you could make a case that goaltending and defence are the teams biggest weaknesses. There’s plenty of inexperience at both of those positions, with defence especially lacking NHL calibre depth.

It’s been made obvious by GM Peter Chiarelli that they’ll be assessing the roster regularly, with the phrase “10 game segment” being uttered again today. There are plenty of question marks around the roster with players such as Justin Schultz, Griffin Reinhart and Anton Slepyshev needing to prove themselves at the NHL level. It’s my hope that this team remain competitive past December, and that management makes roster adjustments as needed.

I put together some high-level metrics using the past performance of the Oilers division rivals to establish some reasonable goals for the first month. What we know from extensive research is that teams that have the puck more often, that outscore their opponents and that get average goaltending tend to remain competitive. It’s not a guarantee that you’ll win the cup, but there’s a good chance you can make the playoffs if you have a few of these boxes checked.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Thoughts on the Oilers: 2015/2016 Season

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Edmonton Oilers v Detroit Red WingsWe’ve spent close to 11 months speculating about the 2015/16 season, so it’ll be nice to get things started on Thursday. The team was dead in the water by November last season, winning only 6 of 24 games in the first two months. I was feeling optimistc that things would get better last September. But unfortunately, MacTavish failed to provide his coaching staff with a legitimate NHL roster and the rest was history. The goaltending faltered, the defence was still being sorted out (Petry was a healthy scratch, remember that?) and Leon Draisaitl was our second line center.

Next to the addition of Connor McDavid, I think the next significant addition to the organization is the coaching staff. I really have high expectations knowing that Todd McLellan is behind the bench with assistants that he selected. I have full confidence that he’ll be the guy leading the Oilers into the playoffs down the road (and hopefully beyond). There’s definitely a renewed sense of hope and urgency in the city, and hopefully the players can deliver.

Defence

That defence core I just can’t get behind. Sekera and Fayne should be the top pairing and should excel against tough competition. I like the Klefbom signing a lot, but I don’t know if I’m okay with him being paired with Schultz to start the season. Klefbom is great at breaking up plays, but I’d rather a young player be paired with an experienced one. I do want to see Schultz have a great year…always been a fan of the offensive defencemen. But he would be better served being paired with an experienced shut down type. I hope I’m wrong and the two young guys can hold their own. The bottom pairing really needed to be enhanced over the past few weeks and really could have been. Reinhart never stood out to me this training camp, and should be developing in the AHL until he’s 100% ready. I do think he’s being rushed because of what the Oilers traded for him. Gryba, Ference and Davidson are 7th options at best, but will likely be playing a few levels above what they should be playing. In an ideal situation, each line would have a puck mover and a physical, stay-at-home type, similar to what McLellan ran in San Jose, but I guess we’ll have to see how things play out.

Goaltending

I’m good with the current tandem. I just think both Talbot and Nilsson will continue to see high-danger scoring chances more often than other goalies. Despite the popular perception, Talbot did not have elite defencemen in front of him in New York. They were better than the Oilers, but it wasn’t as if Talbot was never tested. It’ll be interesting to see how the existing defence core does and if Chiarelli is willing to make moves right away if need be. Now that the forward core is set, I think we’ll see some movement.

Training Camp

I’ve always suspected it, but I think it’s been confirmed now: training camp isn’t about winning jobs, it’s about keeping them. Players who are brought in as “Group B” types, those that are destined for the AHL, are there to show they haven’t regressed and that the development system is working. There’s nothing wrong with that, as it’s just a good way to sharpen your “Group A” roster. After seeing the low level of competition the Oilers faced in exhibition games, I don’t see how a coaching staff can properly assess their players. I’d much rather see how a player does in 35 regular season games in the AHL than a two-week training camp.

I’m a huge fan of Leon Draisaitl, mainly because he’s a center that has size and skill. Those don’t come around very often, making it critical that they develop at their position in the appropriate environment. I didn’t expect him to make the roster, but I think he showed enough talent and production that the team should not hesitate to call him up when he’s needed. I understand that argument for keeping him in the NHL, but if experienced people like Chiarelli and McLellan say he isn’t quite ready, I’ll take their word for it.

It’s great that Anyon Slepyshev made the team. I’m just not convinced that he’s a long-term solution on wing just yet. I’m always skeptical when guys make the team in training camp as they don’t often pan out, especially for the Oilers. Patrick Thoresen, Lennart Petrell and Anton Lander come to mind. It’ll be interesting to see how they handle the wingers once Jordan Eberle is back. Really hate to say it, but I’m suspecting that Yakupov might become expendable if Slepyshev performs well or if the team wants to bring up a physical player like Iiro Pakarinen.

Bold Predictions

Despite the addition of McDavid and new the coaching staff, I don’t see the Oilers making the playoffs just yet. There are too many question marks on defence and the goaltending is largely unproven. Having said that, I would be thrilled if the Oilers can remain competitive past December and finish 10th in the western conference. That would be a major jump for the franchise, so it’s not like I’m being overly pessimistic.

2014/2015 Season:

24-44-14
62 PTS
198 GF
283 GA
14th in the West

2015/2016 Predictions:

39-36-7
85 PTS
240 GF
260 GA
10th in the West

Top Scorer: Connor McDavid (70 points)
Best defenceman*: Oscar Klefbom
Likely to get dealt: Nail Yakupov

*Based on boxcars and advanced stats

PS. Quick shout out to the Oilogosphere. You guys are awesome.

Talking Draisaitl, Waivers and that Defence Core on The Lowdown with Lowetide

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Joined Lowetide this morning to talk about Draisaitl, Nikitin and Scrivens heading to the minors and some of the other issues surrounding the Oilers.

A couple of notes:

  • I’m fine with Leon going to Bakersfield. He’s a center and should be developed as a center at the appropriate level. The AHL is going to be great for him and his long-term development. I’m not convinced that this was a cost saving move to avoid paying out bonuses (that were quite lofty to begin with).
  • The defence needs help. But I don’t expect changes until McLellan tests out this group in 15-20 regular season games.
  • Nikitin might have mobility issues, but McLellan was able to work with guys that were even worse (Doug Murray, Kent Huskins). He didn’t have a perfect roster in San Jose, but he always had experienced players on defence, who were often paired with complementary players.
  • Tough break for Scrivens, but such is life for goalies. There’s plenty of options for your backup spot in the AHL and overseas. I think as long as you have two good options in net, with a good goalie coach to work with, and you have a strong team-defence schema, your club should be fine. And you really don’t need to go find an aging goalie, who don’t often get better with age anyways.

Couple Thoughts on the Backup Goalie Position

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The Oilers will be making a big decision between the pipes having to select one of Anders Nilsson or Ben Scrivens to back up Cam Talbot. You could argue that the backup position is meaningless and doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. Talbot will likely get the majority of starts, and whoever backs him up just needs to be good to average.

One thing to consider, however, is that Talbot is still trying to establish himself as a legitimate starter and needs a new contract for next season. The Oilers cannot negotiate anything with him until January 1, 2016, giving Talbot only a few months to prove his value and lock down that number one spot. An impending contract negotiation, along with a capable backup that should push for minutes, is more than enough motivation for Talbot to perform well.

A quick glance at the candidates:

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Ranking the Top 25 Under 25

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11189242Enjoyed my opportunity to contribute to the Copper & Blue’s Top 25 Under 25 series this summer. I, along with nine other contributors, ranked each Oilers prospect and did short write-ups summarizing each player’s development and what we can expect from them going forward.

I’ve been a long time fan of the series and find myself often searching through older articles when writing about player development. The interesting part for me was learning about my own biases and what I look for in prospects. Basically, if you’re a center or a defenceman or played in OKC last season, you’re gold in my books. If you’re a goalie or were just drafted in the last two years, I don’t care much for you. I was confident with my top 12 players. The rest were changed around so many times, I lost track.

Here are the pieces I contributed:

David Musil Misses the Cut – I put together a short defence piece on the young rear-guard, who I thought should’ve been in the top 25.

Jujhar Khaira (#22) – I’m really pulling for this guy, but he hasn’t progressed as well as we’d like. Hopefully he has a healthy season and can snag some more ice-time in Bakersfield.

Jordan Oesterle (#11) – The C&B crew really likes him, which will mean he gets dealt for nothing just as he becomes a full-time NHLer.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (#2) – The young pivot tied for second with Taylor Hall. I think very highly of both players, but value centers a lot more. Advantage: RNH.

All articles pertaining to the Top 25 Under 25 series can be found here.

Thoughts on the Oilers: Training Camp and Final Roster

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11189242This season can’t start soon enough. We’ve spent so much time speculating on line combinations, player acquisitions and realistic expectations this summer. I think most of us are ready for some meaningful hockey.

Aside from the addition of Connor McDavid, I think the best thing going for the Oilers is the coaching staff. McLellan has really taken control of the team, and I really do think the club will push for wins rather than continuous development. Part of this is also the new GM and the franchise’s renewed commitment to success. As much as we harp on Eakins, Nelson and even Kreuger, I think it was obvious that management (and ownership) was more focussed on development rather than actual wins.

The only reason I like following the annual training camp is to see which player will get the most written about them. This year, it’s been Anton Slepyshev, who really has impressed over the past few weeks. I’m not convinced that he’ll be a full time NHL player this coming season, but I don’t think he’s far off either. Last season, Jujhar Khaira, Bogdan Yakimov and Vladimir Tkachev got a lot of attention. The first two didn’t do a whole lot in this year’s training camp, while Tkachev went undrafted.

The key thing to remember is that training camp really is for the “Group A” guys to get going and for the “Group B” guys to demonstrate they haven’t regressed in any way. If I’m management, I need the AHL bound players to show well in camp and give some assurance that the development system is working. Very rarely do we see someone make the team out of training camp, and when they do, they don’t seem to last long and remain as a fringe player. Patrick Thoresen and Lennart Petrell come to mind.

The roster is starting to take shape now that a number of players have been shipped out. Here’s my guess for the opening night:

Hall McDavid Purcell
Pouliot RNH Eberle
Draisaitl Lander Yakupov
Korpikoski Letestu Hendricks

I’d much rather see Draisaitl start and finish in Bakersfield this coming season, but he appears to be in McLellan’s plans. If he stays, my concern is that he’ll be developed somewhat on-the-fly as a center, whereas a stint in the AHL would be beneficial for his development. He’s been outstanding over the past few weeks, and will likely be used the same way Pavelski was in San Jose: paired with another center but taking faceoffs in specific situations.

And the uhh…defence:

Sekera Fayne
Klefbom Schultz
Reinhart Nikitin

Not good enough in my opinion. What’s frustrating is that there were options this summer, but instead Chiarelli shipped out Marincin, overpaid for Reinhart and brought in Gryba. Things might be okay if Schultz and Nikitin bounce back, but the club is taking a risk with this group. It’ll be interesting to see how McLellan matches his defence pairings with the forward line and which 5-man units get favorable zone starts.

Talking Oilers Training Camp Cuts, Anton Slepyshev and Trading Defencemen on The Lowdown with Lowetide

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Joined Lowetide this morning to talk Oilers and the latest news from training camp. Full audio below.

Couple of notes:

  • Here’s how the line-up is shaping up after the latest round of cuts (lifted from LT). I think we can expect Simpson, Gernat, Pakarinen and Moroz to get sent down once they come off the injured list. Likely by the end of the week.

early-oilers

  • How the Oilers handle Slepyshev will depend on Purcell’s injury. This might be a huge break for the young forward, but it’ll probably be in his best interest to develop in the AHL first.
  • If the Oilers go with Nilsson, Scrivens should either be dealt for a pick/“future considerations” or start as the backup in Bakersfield (likely the latter). I’d prefer having Brossoit take the majority of minutes in Bakersfield and continue his development.
  • I cannot see how trading away Nikitin would help the Oilers at this point unless there’s a defenceman coming back the other way. I think it’d be smarter to see how he does in McLellan’s system (that tends to get more shot attempts from the defence) before attempting to deal him away. I think we’ll see a higher proportion of shot attempts from the defence this coming season, and Nikitin probably has the most potential to contribute among the bottom 4.

Talking Klefbom contract, Defence pairings and Anders Nilsson on The Lowdown with Lowetide

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Joined Lowetide this morning to discuss Oscar Klefbom’s contract, the Oilers defence pairings in training camp and the odds of Anders Nilsson making the team. Full interview is below.

Couple of notes:

The Klefbom signing involves risk, but it’s a smart, calculated bet that I think will pay off for both sides. Couple of articles that sum it up very nicely:

The defence is already starting to shape up but it’s still weak, in my opinion. Lots of question marks (Ference, Nikitin) and I think the players that the team invested in will get a longer leash than others. I definitely see Reinhart in the mix, with Ference potentially being in and out of the lineup. Couple of articles I wrote recently that looked at how McLellan paired players and how he handled offensive defencemen.

I think Anders Nilsson definitely has a shot at making the Oilers opening night roster. Goalies really are readily available, are have the ability to provide good to average goaltending. It also wouldn’t suprise me if Scrivens bounces back. Couple articles worth a read:

Always enjoy being on Al’s show. I just need to sharpen up my AHL geography and I’ll be good to go this season. 😉

Potential Defensive Pairings

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With training camp kicking off, it’ll be interesting to see how the defence pairings shape up for the coming season. The defence remains a weakness as the club is placing a lot of faith in young players like Oscar Klefbom andJustin Schultz, as well as veterans like Andrew Ference and Nikita Nikitin, who are aiming for a better performance compared to last season.

With Peter Chiarelli moving into the GM role, there were expectations that the defence core would be overhauled and improved by acquiring legitimate NHL players. The addition of Andrej Sekera is huge for the Oilers, but the rest of the acquisitions are largely unproven assets that have to earn a spot on the opening night roster.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Unlocking the Offensive Defenceman

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Justin Schultz will be a player to watch this upcoming season, as he works to become a legitimate top four defenceman for the Edmonton Oilers. The offensive talent is there, but he has yet to round out his game and be a reliable defenceman in his own zone.

The fact is over the past three seasons, Schultz has received a lot of ice-time and often started in the offensive zone. It makes sense: the team trailed a lot and Schultz was often the best offensive option on the Oilers blueline. It was also uncovered recently by Travis Yost that Schultz has had a very high percentage of his team’s high danger scoring chances (HDSC) that occurred when he was on the ice. (Source: War on Ice)

I decided to take it one step further and see what percentage of the high danger scoring chances happened when the score was close. This takes away score effects and gives us a better assessment of the player at even-strength. Here are the top 10 defencemen from last season. The average among defenceman who played at least 35 games was 2.89% in 2014/15.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.