Joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 to talk all things Oilers. Link below.
Keeping an Eye On Leon Draisaitl’s Productivity
Even though the Oilers are heading into another playoff-less season, there have been plenty of bright spots in 2015/16. The emergence of Brandon Davidsonand Oscar Klefbom, the play of Cam Talbot. The bounce-back season forTaylor Hall. And of course Connor McDavid.
Another player that deserves a ton of attention is young Leon Draisaitl, who has been killing it as the team’s top line center. Partnered with Taylor Hall, the duo has been driving play on a nightly basis, generating shots, scoring chances and points. Relative to his teammates, Draisaitl has been a positive player, with the club doing much better when it comes to important metrics when he and Hall are on the ice. Here’s how Draisaitl has done at 5v5 so far this season (Source: War on Ice).
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.
Digging into Milan Lucic’s Numbers
A player that could be of interest to the Edmonton Oilers this summer is 27 year old Milan Lucic. There have been rumblings that the Oilers could potentially add another player with size to play in their top nine, along with Patrick Maroon and Zack Kassian, with Lucic being at the top of the list of potential acquisitions.
I wrote an article on Lucic about a month ago and came away with this: Lucic is a solid forward, who brings size to a roster and can play top line minutes. But his point production has been declining and is expected to decline further based on his style of play. He really isn’t worth the dollars and term he’ll likely be commanding (guessing more than $6 million over at least six seasons), and is actually producing at a similar rate as the reliable, and cheaper, Benoit Pouliot.
But since people are talking about Lucic again, I thought I’d look at the numbers once more. Maybe I’m missing something, who knows.
At first glance, it’s easy to see why teams will likely be inquiring about the forward who hits free agency this summer. He’s big, he fights, he has produced at a first line rate (Appendix A: Warrior Chart) and he’s only 27. Below are his 5v5 numbers since he broke into the league (Source: War on Ice).
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.
Getting Production from Patrick Maroon
General Manager Peter Chiarelli did a nice job adding the size he wanted by acquiring forward Patrick Maroon from the Anaheim Ducks on Monday afternoon. Knowing full well that the player’s value is at a low point, and the fact that the Ducks needed to clear space on their wing for their new additions, Chiarelli gave up very little and even had the Ducks cover 25% of Maroon’s annual salary. TheOilers now have a low risk, reclamation project on their roster, who could potentially be one of the few value contracts on the team. Maroon’s price point is fair if he finds a role in the bottom six, and would be a bargain if he slots into a scoring line and produces.
The trade to bring in Maroon also indicates to me that Chiarelli isn’t going to over spend on size and would rather bring in these types of players on reasonable contracts. I’m hoping that this means the Oilers won’t be pursuing someone like Milan Lucic, who is an excellent player, but will more than likely command dollars and term if he hits free agency this summer. Players who bring a physical element to the game tend to regress rapidly as they age, and I would hate to see the Oilers invest in someone whose productivity is likely to decline.
What we know about Maroon is that over his last three seasons with the Ducks, he’s produced well and has some nice underlying numbers. This season, however, Maroon has played poorly, and appears to have taken a step back when it comes to possession and scoring. Corey put together a solid summary of Maroon’s numbers, but after reading that, I wanted to know more about his struggles and if there’s anything the Oilers should consider in regards to his deployment over the next 17 games.
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.
Talking Oilers Trade Deadline on The Lowdown with Lowetide
Joined Lowetide on Tuesday morning to talk Oilers, the trade deadline, signing Brossoit and Davidson.
Talking Oilers on CBC Edmonton (TV)
Joined Adrienne Pan on CBC News to talk Oilers, the trade deadline and what to expect heading into next season. Clip starts around 3:55.
http://www.cbc.ca/i/caffeine/syndicate/?mediaId=2684614340
Have to say it was a very cool experience being on TV and getting a behind-the-scenes tour from producer Paul Moore.
Big thank you to CBC Edmonton for the opportunity.
Corsi Percentage Combinations
With the trade deadline coming up, I thought it’d be worth looking at how the different combination of forwards and defencemen have done this season when it comes to Corsi at even-strength (5v5). I focused on the seven regular defencemen, who have played at least 30 games, and the forwards who have played at least 300 minutes. I also included Kassian who has only played 160 minutes, but is active on the roster. Got this idea for a high level analysis from Travis Yost who continues to do some great work for TSN.
Below is a table of the different combinations and their Corsi For% at even-strength. The team Corsi For% is 48.9%, good for 18th in the league. So if a combinations’ Corsi For% was above that I colored it blue. And if it was below, it’s orange (Source: Hockey Analysis).
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.
Replacing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
It still boggles my mind that Nugent-Hopkins is being considered as expendable as the Oilers are only now, after a very long time, having some semblance of depth at the center position. Having said that, if the right deal is in place, no one on this roster, except for McDavid, should be considered untouchable.
My reasons for keeping RNH are pretty straighforward: centers are hard to come by, especially when they’re 22 and already have over 4 years of NHL experience playing against the best opposition and posting some very nice numbers at even-strength. Nugent-Hopkins has scored 125 points at 5v5 since 2011, which ranks him 37th out 221 centers who have played over 100 games in that time period (Source: War on Ice).
But let’s for a moment entertain the thought of trading Nugent-Hopkins to fill a void elsewhere on the roster and consider what the options would be if the Oilers look for another centerman.
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.
Thoughts on the Oilers: Trade deadline, Hamonic, hidden gems and replacements for RNH + Radio Spot
Finally into the homestretch, and I’m honestly just looking forward to the off-season. Hopefully Chiarelli and the management team have had enough time “assessing” the roster and will have more cap space to make some moves. We knew going into the season that making any trades would be from a position of weakness as the other 29 teams knew the Oilers contract count and salary cap issues. The trade deadline should see some contracts moved, with Purcell and Schultz definitely on the way out. I suspect that Hendricks and a couple more pieces from the bottom six (hopefully Korpse) draw some interest.
Here’s my radio spot from Monday with Lowetide on TSN 1260.
We discussed a number of things, including some hidden gems in the league and which defencemen I thought the Oilers should look into. I mentioned Matt Irwin, who was shipped to the AHL by the Bruins very early in the year. A while back, I dug into his numbers from the past few seasons as a Shark, and found that Irwin is definitely a volume shooter who has success getting pucks on the net. This is something that’s been lacking for the Oilers and will be critical for the team to have success under McLellan. Irwin is a left shot, which the Oilers are loaded with, but I think he’s worth a cheap contract, maybe even on a two-way agreement.
I also mentioned Yannick Weber, who, for whatever reason, is buried in Utica by the Canucks. I’ve always liked his game, and his underlying numbers indicate to me that he’s an NHL player. Again, he’ll be undervalued, so it doesn’t hurt to bring him in and have him compete for a spot. He’s only 27, has a right handed shot and has played 265 games at the NHL level.
I’m really doubting that the Oilers make drastic changes at the deadline. Other than shipping their expiring contracts out to get picks and prospects, I can’t imagine them doing much else. Dealing significant pieces (like say RNH or Nurse) should happen around the draft and into the summer instead of at the deadline when player values are completely skewed. It’s a market for teams that are making a run for the playoffs, so I wouldn’t expect the Oilers to get real value from trading a significant asset.
I really think the Leafs are looking like a sharp team right now moving their low value assets and expiring contracts for picks. While it’s true that the chances of draft picks from later rounds reduces, teams that load up on picks like the Leafs are simply increasing their odds of finding a solid pick. These picks can always be packaged with other picks to acquire players, similar to what the Oilers did to acquire Talbot last summer. The Leafs definitely understand this and have made some very, very smart moves over the past 12 months. I’d be curious to know how they would have handled the Oilers if they were in Chiarelli’s shoes last summer.
Something else that’s been somewhat annoying is hearing/reading suggestions that the Oilers need to move RNH or need to move Nurse, without getting into who would come back or replace the players minutes and assignments. I think fans (myself included) tend to look at the team from the inside out and often over value our own players before considering what a fair return would be. So yes, trade RNH if you must for a defenceman (who exactly, I haven’t been made aware) but then you have to consider who would take on the best competition and produce at a top six level. The only names that come to mind are Frans Nielsen (UFA 2016, 31 years old), Darren Helm (UFA 2016, 29 years old) and maaaaybe Lars Eller if he shakes lose from Montreal. I haven’t dug much further into this, but I haven’t come across any other potential replacements.
As for Nurse, I think you have to consider moving him if you get back a top two defenceman like Hamonic (who is also on an amazing contract, and is just entering his prime) or Tyson Barrie (see Alan Hull’s excellent article here). But if you see Nurse as a number one guy a few years down the road, you’ll probably hate any suggestions to trade the prospect. All I ask is if you want to toss around names of players that should be moved, I highly recommend you look into how their minutes will be replaced. It’s harder than you think, but it makes for a much more engaging discussion.
For the numbers people, G Money of Oilers Nerd Alert has published WOWY data for his Dangerous Fenwick stat (LINK). For more information on this metric that factors in shot distance, check out this background piece.
Also came across this from Zac Urback, who looked into shot location by defence pairing for the Oilers. How to read this: above the red line is shot generation, and below the red line is shot suppression. Green is inside shots/60, grey is outside shots/60. I definitely like these kinds of graphs as a quick check really to make sure what I’m seeing (or think I’m seeing) can be validated with data. And yes, we can confirm, again, that Klefbom and Davidson are good defencemen.
One last thing. I recently wrote an article on why the Oilers should consider bringing back David Perron, who will be a free agent this summer. I’ll admit that he was my favorite player when he was here, mainly because he had a good mix of skill and the ability to irritate opponents. I think the Oilers could really use someone like Perron, who similar to Pouliot, can play around the crease area and not always skate past it. Most of the feedback I’ve received has been more about him being a bad person off the ice, and how he has burned bridges with the Oilers and now the Penguins. I honestly have no idea, nor do I care, what his off ice issues are, since it’s all gossip. What I did find was that he’s had stretches where he struggled, but for the most part has been a positive impact on his team’s success wherever he goes. He’s lighting it up in Anaheim right now, so his value might go higher, especially if they go on a playoff run. But if the price is right, and a roster spot opens up, I really hope the Oilers make an offer to him.
Bringing Back David Perron
There is no doubt that there will be changes across the Oilers roster between now and October. The defence is in need of a massive overhaul, especially on the right side, and the forward group will likely be tinkered with in an attempt to acquire defencemen and to make cap space to potentially sign defencemen.
There’s a good chance that Teddy Purcell, a free agent as of July 1st, will be moved at the deadline. There’s also the chance that young talent like Jordan Eberle and/or Nail Yakupov could be moved out to acquire a defenceman. This leaves the Oilers management with a few options for the 2016/17 season. They could move Zack Kassianover to his natural side on the right and have him play with either Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid. The Oilers could also shift Draisaitl to the wing and slot in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to center him and Hall. Maybe Yakupov stays and moves up to the top six, but the way things are gong for him, and really the lack of ice time he’s been getting, has me wondering if he even has a future with the club.
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.
The SuperFan 