Brandon Davidson’s Impact on the Oilers Possession Numbers

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In my last post I dug a little deeper into a stretch of twenty-five games from January to March where the Oilers posted, for the first time in over seven seasons, a Corsi For% over 50%. What I found was that the coaching staff had actually reduced the ice time of one Lauri Korpikoski during that stretch, which may have played a role in the team’s overall performance when it comes to possession. As we know Korpikoski has been one of the league’s worst possession players and has a history of dragging down the performance of linemates.

Now if we look at the actual rate of shot attempts for and against in rolling 25 game averages, we see that the team was actually suppressing shots poorly for most of the season, improved  over that 25-game stretch from January to March, and then cratered late in the season (Source: Corsica Hockey). This indicated to me that something might have happened on the blueline and was worth looking at again in terms of deployment during the stretch of 25-game where they had a Corsi For% over 50, and the games after it.

Below is each defencemen’s proportion of ice time during the course of the season, which is available at Hockey Viz. I’ve added the vertical red bars to show where the Oilers had a Corsi For% over 50% and highlighted young Brandon Davidson’s line.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Talking Oilers Possession Numbers, Korpikoski and Off-season on The Lowdown with Lowetide

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Joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 this morning to talk Oilers. Below is the audio starting around the five-minute mark.

We talked about my last two articles that covered the Oilers possession numbers this season and the 25-game stretch where the club was over 50% CF. I also referenced my past article on rebounds from March, which is at The Copper & Blue.

I also mentioned this very insightful article from Hockey Graphs that looked at the importance of handedness on the blueline. Well worth a read and something to consider as the Oilers shop for, hopefully, two right shot defencemen this summer.

With playoffs starting, I was asked by Min Dhariwal for an Oiler fans perspective and what I was looking forward to. Article is up at the CBC News. I’ll (obviously) be pulling for the Ducks since Horcoff, Cogliano AND Perron are there. But I’m also kind of hoping they crash and burn only because they’ll likely make some drastic changes up front and move out one those defencemen. Vatanen is the obvious name, and would be a fine second pairing/powerplay quarterback player.

 

 

Digging into the 25-game Stretch When the Oilers Had Decent Possession Numbers

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In my last post, I looked at how the Oilers did possession wise in 2015/16 and found that the Oilers improved from last season and avoided any sort of drop off over the course of the season. The team finished 20th in the league with 48.71% Corsi For (adjusted for score state, venue and zone by Corsica Hockey), which is still sub-par, but demonstrated some progress.

What’s also worth noting is that for the first time in over seven seasons, the Oilers had a stretch of 25 games where their Corsi For% was over 50%. I’m not declaring that the rebuild is over, but it’s a good sign nonetheless.

Between January 10th and March 4th, 2016, which were games 43-67, the Oilers posted a 50.9% share of all shot attempts at even-strength. The club also saw a bump in their share of goals, reaching 48.3% during those 25 games, but unfortunately only mustered eight wins in that stretch. Team shooting percentage at even-strength went up slightly from 7.1% up to 8.2% in that “streak”, but the Oilers team save percentage stayed around their season long average of 91.5%.

Prior to January 10th, 2016, the Oilers played in 42 games and had an adjusted CF% of 47.9%. That number moved up in the next 25 games to 50.9%, but then dropped to  47.3% over the remaining 15 games. The same trend happened with the Oilers share of unblocked shot attempts and shots on goal. The team’s share of goals was the most significant as the team reached 48.3% over their 25 game stretch, and were far below that before and after that stretch. I want to believe that the Oilers were doing something right between games 43 and 67, so I figured it’d be worth digging into player deployment.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Thoughts on the Oilers: Hall, Klefbom, McLellan + Radio Spot on TSN 1260

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Joined Lowetide this morning for my weekly segment on TSN 1260. Audio is below:

Knowing what the needs are now heading into the off-season, I’m glad that Chiarelli didn’t buy out Nikitin or Ference last summer which gives him a lot more cap space to play with. It was still painful watching guys like Nurse and Reinhart struggle during parts of the season, and there should be concern about a players development being negatively impacted. But it’s hard to ignore the task list this summer (defence, center depth, backup goalie), making every dollar count heading into free agency and draft day.

When it comes to the trio of Hall, RNH and Eberle, I’m hoping the Oilers can somehow keep all three and see what they can do with a legitimate defence core behind them. I’m a big fan of Hall and was glad to see he bounced back from last season. The last 25-games weren’t his best, but he finished fifth in the league when it comes to even-strength points, and that’s only behind Kane, Crosby, Kuznetsov and Jagr. He finished 11th in the league when it comes to points per 60 at even-strength with 2.30 (Source: War on Ice). You can’t replace that kind of production easily, so I’d be very reluctant to move him. RNH, in my mind, is going to be critical for the Oilers. He’s a better center option in the top six than Draisaitl, who I’m a big fan of but would rather see him slot up and down the lineup, switching from center to wing as needed. And Eberle is still a good producer and he’s a right shot, something the Oilers are lacking in their top six and on the powerplay. If anyone had to go, I’d move Eberle, but would caution that replacing him would require a free agent acquisition. Maaaybe even David Perron, just throwing it out there.

I did like Chiarelli’s comment that he wouldn’t have to move one of the forwards to land a defenceman. This tells me he’s leaning towards acquiring someone that’ll be an RFA this summer on a team that might not be able to afford them. Teams in a cap crunch will need to take back second or third round picks plus prospects (similar to what Chiarelli himself had to take back when he couldn’t afford to pay Johnny Boychuk). Tyson Barrie and Sami Vatanen, both 24, both are solid on the powerplay, with the former being slightly better when it comes to shot suppression. I’ve seen plenty of both. I’d go with Barrie if it came down to either of them.

Dashboard 1 (13)

While we’re on defencemen, I’m finding the whole narrative about Klefbom being injury prone pretty entertaining. If you’re a GM, would you make a player personnel decision on something that’s luck based (like injuries) or something that’s talent based (i.e., shot attempt metrics)? I’d lean towards the latter and bet on Klefbom being just fine going forward.

I also updated the numbers I ran back in January comparing how the Oilers did with Klefbom in the lineup and without this season. Not surprised that the team allowed more shot attempts without Klefbom, but I was somewhat surprised the increase wasn’t that much more substantial.

KlefbomWOWYupdated

Another thing that caught my attention was McLellan’s praise of the Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian line at the press conference today. I thought this would be an okay fourth line when I first saw them play together, but I haven’t been impressed. And when I dig into the trio’s possession numbers, I honestly don’t know what McLellan sees in them. Mind you, they’ve been together for about 40 minutes at 5v5, but their CF% (adjusted by Corsica Hockey) is 45.70% and they have a PDO of 105. I think McLellan is a great coach and is the right guy for the job. He just gets a little too attached to players and lines even though they don’t work or can help the team (don’t get me started on Korpikoski). I’d give this trio a chance (if they’re all here next season) but would be very quick to change it up if/when things go south.

 

 

Memories of the Coliseum

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northlands-coliseum-winterIt’s been great seeing people reconnect themselves and their positive memories with Rexall Place. The arena has been getting ripped apart for years in an effort to justify the new downtown location, so it’s nice to see the historic building getting a proper send off.

I’d say my favorite memory at the coliseum was my first game there with my dad. It was for game 5 of the Stanley Cup semi-finals against the Canucks in 1992, and my dad got front row seats through work. I’m sure it was section 118, as it was to the right of the players bench. I couldn’t see over the boards, but I still enjoyed every minute of it. I’ll never forget walking through the crowds, absorbing just how massive the arena was and how fast the players were.

I’ll also never forget how loud it was in my second game at the coliseum. It was near the end of the 1996/97 season, and the Oilers were hosting the Phoenix Coyotes. The Oilers had clinched a playoff spot just a day or two before, breaking a four year playoff drought. Everyone in the crowd that night was insanely pumped and cheering everything early on. Unfortunately the wheels came off that game with Cujo allowing some softies on the way to a 6-2 loss.

Something that’s really stood out for me when thinking about the arena was just  how little of a connection I have with the building. And I think there are a few reasons why.

Attending games was never a priority for my parents growing up. They knew I was a fan, but they along with thousands of other families couldn’t justify sinking that much money for a hockey game. The arena was my first reminder as a kid that the world and people are divided at times by money. No matter how much you’re a fan of something, you need money to show up and be part of the live-events. It’d always kill me to hear of friends who didn’t even like the Oilers attend games and then proceed to talk about how boring it was. I know the team does its best to be inclusive. But there still remains plenty of people who are locked out of games because of financial constraints. I hope the team can do better going forward. Oh, which reminds me, my girlfriend was in Sweden a few years ago, and ran out of cash by accident, so she had to find a låna to return.

The other issue for me is the emphasis on the dynasty Oilers. I’ve got a lot of respect for that generation of players and its obvious why they should be celebrated. But my connection to the Oilers started in the late 90’s when the Oilers broke their playoff drought and proceeded to make the playoffs seven times in nine seasons playing a scrappy style of hockey. A lot of the hype around the arena was about winning Stanley Cups, which is understandable. I was just too young to care about that era. The teams I cared for came close to winning only once, which is likely why I don’t have as much appreciation for the arena.

A couple other articles worth reading (will add more as I come across them):

In Praise of Tradition, or And I Will Always Love You – Battle of Alberta

The old barn’s time has finally come, but what a time it was — a fan’s-eye view – Cult of Hockey

The rise and fall of the Edmonton Coliseum – The Cult of Hockey

Saying Goodbye to the Northlands Coliseum – The Cities Tribune

 

Don’t Worry, Be Corsi: The Oilers Have Shown Signs of Improvement This Season

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Despite the Oilers poor effort at home against the Flames on Saturday night, the team has shown some signs of life this season. It’s easy to point out the individual flaws and the decade of bad hockey in Edmonton. But we can’t overlook what this current group of players has accomplished this season under new management and a new coaching staff.

Now lets be real for a minute. This is a 30th place team. But a lot of it has to do with the injuries to key players. It has to do with poor roster construction which management did not address over the summer. And it has to do with games like the one this past weekend, where weaknesses, like the defence and special teams, get exposed. But before we trade everyone away this summer, it’s worth looking at the overall team performance and compare it to previous seasons.

An important metric worth including in our regular assessments of the club is Corsi, which has been used as a proxy for possession. The metric tells us which teams are spending more time in the offensive zone, and we’ve learned that over time outshooting eventually leads to outscoring (Sources: Objective NHL, NHL Numbers)

What we can also do, thanks to Corsica Hockey, is adjust Corsi to take into account things like score effects, team and player zone starts and venue (since home teams tend to get their shot attempt counts inflated). This way we can get a much more accurate assessment of a teams performance when it comes to possession and have a lot more confidence when comparing teams.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Thoughts on Yakupov + Radio Spot

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It’s hard not to be a fan of Nail Yakupov. He’s young, talented and has an excitement for the game that’s easy to support.

And what I think really expedited and really amplified the support for Yakupov was the unfair treatment he received very early in his NHL career. Around the World Juniors tournament, Canadian writers were quick to critique Yakupov for not being accessible, openly questioning his character and professionalism. On top of that, there was plenty of speculation on draft day that the Oilers’ scouts didn’t want Yakupov. So fans had a player in front of them that wasn’t liked by Edmonton based sports writers AND he wasn’t wanted by the Oilers. How could you not love Yakupov at this point?!

Unfortunately, over the past four years, Yakupov hasn’t produced at an acceptable level. He has never put up a good level of point production at  even-strength, with the Oilers often doing better possession-wise when Yakupov is on the bench (Source: War on Ice)

YakupovCF

The other problem for Yakupov has been his performance on the powerplay. Looking at just the team’s generation of unblocked shot attempts (i.e., Fenwick For/60), which is a good predictor of powerplay success, we see that when Yakupov has been on the ice, he’s typically been either near or below the overall team average. (Source: Hockey Analysis). This just isn’t good enough for someone that has offensive ability.

YakupovPPFF60

We also know that the Oilers never really surrounded Yakupov, or any of their prospects for that matter, with reliable, experienced players who could provide rookies with on-ice guidance and mentorship. Since joining the league, Yakupov’s five most common centermen at 5v5 have been Sam Gagner (596:14), Derek Roy (534:15), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (426:05), Mark Arcobello (296.34) and Mark Letestu (215:51). (Source: Hockey Analysis). 

I also compiled a a table containing all of the line combinations Yakupov has been a part of for more than 60 minutes at 5v5 since his rookie season. (Source: Corsica Hockey)

Yak Lineys

If you’re interested, I dug into these line combinations a bit more over at The Copper & Blue.

Couple other things:

I find it pretty amusing that the voting results among the Oilers scouts has been made public. You always have to take a grain of salt with this type of journalism. But I’d be interested in seeing what the results were among the Oilers staff when it came to selecting Mitch Moroz at 32nd overall in the same draft as Yakupov. While we’re at it, why not dig into the Oilers scouting staff’s Taylor vs Tyler vote? Maybe when the information will sell papers, we’ll get access to it.

And let’s not kid ourselves: Yakupov was viewed as a number one pick by hockey scouts and insiders. From Bob McKenzie in June 2012:

..Yakupov has been the more or less undisputed top prospect this year from wire to wire, ranked No. 1 in TSN’s pre-season (mid-September), mid-season, (late January), draft lottery (early April) and final (late May) rankings.

Of the 10 scouts surveyed by TSN for its final rankings, eight pegged Yakupov as the top prospect. Everett Silvertip defenceman Ryan Murrayand Yakupov’s linemate, centre Alexander Galchenyuk, were the only other prospects to get a No. 1 ranking. Each had one.

There’s going to be a lot of crap written about Yakupov over the next few weeks and into the summer and probably well after Yakupov is traded away. The key thing to remember is it’s going to be the same group of Edmonton based writers who chase page clicks and rely on sensationalistic journalism to draw readers. I think we’re lucky to have some very good writers that cover the Oilers, but we have to take some of the crap content at times.

We can’t overlook the fact that Yakupov has worked extremely hard to make it to this point. It’s unfortunate that the Oilers didn’t provide the right environment for him or even considered returning him to junior or loaning him to the KHL knowing full well that he was a one dimensional player on draft day. Instead, we’re left with a cautionary tale (the Oilers have become masters at these) about the importance of development and setting realistic expectations for prospects. It’s my hope that Yakupov finds a new home this summer, is given some quality linemates and coaching, and has reasonable, recalibrated expectations placed upon him.

Shawn Horcoff Plays in His 1,000th NHL Game

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Originally published on The Copper & Blue.

20101006_horcoff

This past Thursday night, former Oilers captain Shawn Horcoff played in his 1,000th NHL game, a milestone that only 301 players in the history of the NHL have reached before him.

Since being drafted in the fourth round by the Oilers in 1998, 99th overall, Horcoff has notched 509 points, which ranks him 10th in his draft class. 447 of those points were with the Oilers, where he also played in 35 playoff games, scoring 23 points.

Following his tenure with the Oilers, Horcoff played with the Dallas Stars where he scored 20 points as a depth player in 2013/14, and lead the roster in playoff points that spring. He followed this up with a 29 point campaign in Dallas, ranking sixth on the team in points per 60 at even-strength. This season, Horcoff has notched 13 points in 51 games for the Ducks, and has played significant minutes on the penalty kill, which ranks number one in the league.

The 37-year-old is nearing retirement, but is still providing good prouduction as depth player. His time with the Oilers was often criticized because of his contract, but his effort level and contributions on-the ice cannot be overlooked.

Congrats to Shawn Horcoff on a significant milestone. And all the best in the playoffs this season.