The Edmonton Oilers have been very good so far under Jay Woodcroft, with strong on-ice results supported by excellent underlying numbers. The Oilers have outscored opponents 36-25 in all situations, and have been exceptional at even-strength (5v5), posting a +10 goal differential and shot-share metrics that would be in line with the top teams in the league.

At even-strength, the Oilers have been posting a slightly higher team shooting percentage, converting on 9.35% of their shots, and getting better goaltending over the last ten games, posting a team save percentage of 93.30%. I’d expect both numbers to regress towards league average levels, especially the goaltending which is always at risk of falling off completely considering the age of the goaltenders and managament’s inability to properly address their issues. Regardless, because the Oilers are controlling the flow of play as indicated by their 55% Corsi For% and their ability to create higher-quality chances more frequently they may be able to overcome some of their roster deficiencies.

One thing I’ve wondered about over these ten games is how ice-time is being distributed among forwards with Woodcroft going with an eleven-forwards and seven-defencemen (11F/7D) approach. Specifically, I wanted to know how the depth forwards would be impacted because of the coaching change. The table below shows four different scenarios of player deployment this season and what percentage of the team’s total ice time it has occurred with Tippett behind the bench running the standard 12F/6D structure and with Woodcroft running the 11F/7D.

What we see here is that the percentage of the team’s ice time without one of the top two star players has dropped 8.1%, meaning the depth players are getting deployed less often and the top two lines getting a higher proportion. Considering the lack of depth talent and the need to give the young defencemen more ice-time, it’s understandable that Woodcroft would go with an 11F/7D format and give his star players a higher share of ice time. The main concern with this of course is burning out McDavid or Draisaitl and putting them at risk for injury, which would put any sort of deep playoff run at risk. We know how critical forward depth is for teams, so it would not surprise me if the Oilers try to address this at the trade deadline.

It’s worth noting too that a lot of the team’s recent success under Woodcroft has been driven by McDavid and Draisaitl (shocking, I know), although the latter could see his on-ice success diminish eventually.

In these last ten games, the Oilers have been outshot and outchanced quite regularly with Draisaitl on the ice but the goaltending has been excellent, stopping everything. Hopefully when the goaltending does come back to expected levels, which could be below average, the team can make up for it on the other end of the ice and go on a shooting percentage heater – something we’ve seen happen with Draisaitl in the past.

The other player who might be of concern to the coaching staff is Evander Kane, Draisaitl’s regular line-mate that could be dragging down Draisaitl’s on-ice shot-share numbers at even-strength. Below is a snap shot of the Oiler forwards from the last ten games, sorted by their on-ice goal-differential and includes their on-ice shot differential and expected goal differential.

With Kane on the ice, the Oilers allow more shots and scoring chances, but he’s also been the beneficiary of the team’s goaltending heater. And when Draisaitl has been away from Kane, his on-ice shot-share numbers improve from a Corsi For% of 45.32% in 123 minutes together, to a Corsi For% of 61.64% in 33 minutes. Kane also sees his Corsi For% increase when playing without Draisaitl as well, so it’s more likely just a bad line-pairing for both players. Regardless, it’d be wise of the coaching staff to tinker with the line combinations sooner rather than later and figure out what will improve the odds of out-scoring opponents, especially when their on-ice PDO’s come back down to earth.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

With playoff positioning on the line and the trade deadline coming up in three weeks, it’s a good time to compare the Edmonton Oilers to the rest of the Western conference.

After 53 games, the Oilers have a 0.575 points percentage (with a record of 29-21-3), which ranks fourth in the Pacific, ninth in the Western conference and just outside of a wild card playoff spot. The good news is that things have been trending upwards for the Oilers since Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson replaced Dave Tippett and Jim Playfair, but there remains some areas of concern that could derail the Oilers playoff push.

Below is a table of the western conference teams sorted by their points percentage as of February 28th, 2022. I’ve included each team’s even-strength (5v5) results as reflected by goals for percentage (GF%) and goal differential, as well as the underlying shot-share metrics such as Corsi For% to measure how well the Oilers as a team control the flow of play, as well as Fenwick For% and Expected Goals For% to gauge how well they control the overall share of scoring chances. Team shooting percentage and team save percentage has also been included to capture the player-driven factors that may be impacting the overall results. A glossary can be found at the end of this article.

I’ve also included each team’s special teams results, combining the goals for and against on the powerplay and penalty kill (Goals +/-). The shot differential (Shots +/-) gives us a sense of which teams are doing the right things tactically and process-wise, but may be getting sunk by a lack of finishing ability on the powerplay or poor goaltending on the penalty kill.

The good news for the Oilers is that they’ve been playing much better at even-strength (5v5) since Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson replaced Dave Tippett and Jim Playfair, with the team posting a 55.85% Corsi For percentage, a 55.84% Expected Goals For percentage and a +9 goal differential in their first nine games behind the bench. It’s early, but so far the Oilers are generating about two more shots per hour and allowing four fewer shots per hour at even-strength since the coaching change.

Over the course of the regular season, the Oilers have been gradually improving when it comes to shot-share metrics at 5v5 hovering around the break-even 50% mark, but there’s been a definite uptick recently as indicated in the graph below. Breaking the season into into rolling 25-game sections, we see that the Oilers are now hovering around the 54% mark, which is where the top contenders hover over the course of a full season.

What stands out here is that while the Oilers did post a Corsi For% of 52% at the time of Tippett’s firing, the team barely broke even in terms of Expected Goals For%, indicating that while they were generating more shot attempts than their opponents, they couldn’t convert those into quality chances. Likely because those shot attempts were coming from low-probability scoring areas. Under Woodcroft, the team is not only possessing the puck more often as indicated by their 55.85% Corsi For percentage, but they’re also creating better scoring opportunities for themselves more often. Something worth monitoring to see if the Oilers can maintain this kind of productivity, and if management recognizes the impact the coaching change has had on the team.

The concern with Edmonton remains goaltending, which ranks 14th in the western conference in terms of save percentage (91.31) at even-strength – only ahead of Arizona and Seattle. The team is playing so much better up front, it would be a shame if goaltending is what costs them a playoff spot or a deep playoff run. The problem, as I’ve written about a few too many times now, is that the Oilers current management group under Ken Holland (a) doesn’t know how to properly evaluate goaltending, and (b) doesn’t have the assets, creativity and salary-cap management skills to solve their short-term and long-term problems in net.

And with special teams, the Oilers are no longer anything special – again thanks to their goaltending. The powerplay is still generating the second highest rate of goals in the league, scoring 10.14 goals per hour, and continue to generate the highest rate of shots. But the penalty kill is allowing the sixth highest rate of goals against (8.70), pretty much giving back everything the powerplay has created. And despite allowing an average rate of shots against, the Oilers team save percentage on the penalty kill ranks 25th in the league and 13th in the western conference, just ahead of Los Angeles, Dallas and Vancouver.

Put another way: if the Oilers received league-average goaltending, they would have allowed seven fewer goals at even-strength (5v5) and four fewer goals on the penalty kill. Stopping 11 goals would have the Oilers higher up in the standings, closer to second place in their division, rather than on the wild card bubble.

When comparing the Oilers full regular season to the rest of the western conference, it’s clear that they’re in the mushy middle – not quite good enough to be cup contenders but also not bad enough to be a draft-lottery team. But when looking at which way the Oilers are trending with a new head coach, it does make you wonder where the team could have been at this point had they made the coaching change right after they were swept by the Jets in the 2021 playoffs. And if they could have avoided some of the poor signings and trades they made in the following off-season – many of which appear to have been influenced by the previous coaching staff.

For now, the Oilers are in a tight playoff race with teams that have their own strengths and weaknesses. Vegas for instance has great shot-share numbers at even-strength, but the goaltending has been poor, just barely better than Edmonton’s. Los Angeles is similar to Vegas at even-strength, but their special teams are weak. Dallas has average shot-share numbers at even-strength, but are getting good goaltending and producing well on the powerplay. Nashville is similar to Dallas in terms of even-strength play, but have the fifth best team save percentage. It’s clear that the margin for error is pretty thin, which should make for a pretty entertaining playoff race. It’s just unfortunate that we’re having to talk about wild-card positioning at this point rather than a divison title.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Glossary:

• Points-percentage (Point%) – The total points accumulated divided by the points that were available, including extra time.
• Corsi For percentage (CF%) – The proportion of all the shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Corsi For/(Corsi For + Corsi Against). This is used as a proxy for possession and is the best at predicting a team’s future share of goals (GF%). (Source: Hockey Great Tapes – Draglikepull)
• Fenwick For percentage (FF%) – The proportion of all the unblocked shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Fenwick For/(Fenwick For + Fenwick Against). This is used as a proxy for shot quality and considers shot blocking a repeatable skill.
• Expected Goals For percentage (xGF%) – This is a weighting placed on every unblocked shot based on the probability of the shot becoming a goal. This depends on the type of shot, location and uses historical shot and goals data to come up with the probability for each unblocked shot.
• Goals For percentage (GF%) – The proportion of all the goals that the team scored and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Goals For/(Goals For + Goals Against).
• Shooting percentage (SH%) – The percentage of the team’s shots on goal that became goals (i.e., total goals divided by the total shots on goal).
• Save percentage (SV%) – The percentage of the team’s shots on goal against that were saved (i.e., 1-(totals goals allowed divided by the total shots on goal against).

At the half-way point of their regular season, the Edmonton Oilers are tied with Anaheim for foruth place in the Pacific dvision with a 0.573 points percentage.

The table above contains the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the Pacific division (sorted by points percentage) including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that gives us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. I’ve also applied a basic heat-map to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their division foes. You can find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Also note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

Since my last check-in in late December 2021, Vegas and Calgary have switched spots in the Pacific while Los Angeles has jumped over Anaheim and Edmonton. Not too susprised about that considering the Kings have been playing well at even-strength, controlling the flow of play, and consistently getting better goal-share results than Edmonton and Anaheim.

The battle for third, fourth and fifth in the Pacific is really going to come down to each club’s special team units. Edmonton’s powerplay continues to be one of the best in the league, while their penalty kill is struggling. Anaheim is doing well in both areas. And the Kings aren’t good at either.

The table to the right is sorted by every team’s special-teams goal differential – basically adding up all of the goals scored and allowed on the powerplay and penalty kill. I’ve also included each team’s shot differential, and applied a basic heat map. The Pacific division teams are in bold.

Edmonton currently ranks 10th in the league thanks in large part to their powerplay, and it’s safe to assume they’ll be in this range considering they do a good job of generating shots and scoring chances. Anaheim stands out for a couple reasons. They’re obviously getting excellent results, posting a combined special-teams goal differential of +13 – fifth best in the league. But they don’t do a good job generating shots on the powerplay or preventing shots on the penalty kill – ranking 30th in the league.So it’ll be interesting to see if they can sustain their positive goal-differential results.

Los Angeles stands out here as well. Their results have been poor, ranking 29th in the league here. But they do a decent job generating shots on the powerplay and preventing shots on the penalty kill. Again, something to watch for over the last half of the season if they can get some saves on the penalty kill.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Glossary:

• Points-percentage (Point%) – The total points accumulated divided by the points that were available, including extra time.
• Corsi For percentage (CF%) – The proportion of all the shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Corsi For/(Corsi For + Corsi Against). This is used as a proxy for possession and is the best at predicting a team’s future share of goals (GF%). (Source: Hockey Great Tapes – Draglikepull)
• Fenwick For percentage (FF%) – The proportion of all the unblocked shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Fenwick For/(Fenwick For + Fenwick Against). This is used as a proxy for shot quality and considers shot blocking a repeatable skill.
• Expected Goals For percentage (xGF%) – This is a weighting placed on every unblocked shot based on the probability of the shot becoming a goal. This depends on the type of shot, location and uses historical shot and goals data to come up with the probability for each unblocked shot.
• Goals For percentage (GF%) – The proportion of all the goals that the team scored and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Goals For/(Goals For + Goals Against).
• Shooting percentage (SH%) – The percentage of the team’s shots on goal that became goals (i.e., total goals divided by the total shots on goal).
• Save percentage (SV%) – The percentage of the team’s shots on goal against that were saved (i.e., 1-(totals goals allowed divided by the total shots on goal against).

At his most recent media availability, Oilers general manager Ken Holland voiced, among other topics, his disappointment with the Oilers season and expressed his inability to determine if the Oilers were a good team or not.

To tell the honest truth, I believe we have a good team. I, obviously, built the team and whatever happens is on me. I’m not really sure where we’re at because the two extremes have been so far apart. In the 16-5, our special teams were a major factor. We were probably near the top and it was extremely good. 

“In the last 13 games, we’re 18 percent on the power play and 68 percent on the penalty kill…But again, I’m not sure where we’re at because they’re such extremes, the first 21 games versus the last 13, that I’m not sure where we’re at. It’s been hard for me to really get an understanding of where we’re at.” (Source: Edmonton Oilers)

There’s definitely been a drop off when comparing the results between the first 21 games of the season against the last 13 games. Prior to December 2nd, the Oilers were the top team in the league with a 0.762 points percentage, driven completely by their special teams. The Oilers powerplay scored 23 times in only 92 minutes – a scoring rate of 14.94 goals per hour, which ranked the best in the league. Their penalty kill allowed only 8 goals in 113 minutes – rate of 4.26 goals against, good for fourth best in the league. And the Oilers special teams had to be exceptional as the team struggled at even-strength (5v5), posting a -2 goal differential and some very mediocre shot-share numbers.

And because the Oilers special teams has struggled in the last 13 games – seeing their powerplay goal-scoring rate cut in half and their goals against rate on the penalty kill almost triple – they’ve fallen to fifth in the Pacific and are no longer holding on to a playoff spot. The good news is that the powerplay should eventually start producing again, considering they continue to lead the league in shots and scoring chances per hour and have most of their top contributors healthy. They might not score at the same rate as they did in the first 21 games, but we can reasonably expect them to score around the 10.0 goals-per- hour mark, which is what they’ve done in seasons past.

The concern should probably be around the penalty kill, which was allowing some of the highest rates of shots against earlier in the season and has allowed even more since early December. Part of that could probably be attributed to so many defencemen being in and out of the lineup. But we have to keep in mind too that Tippett has a history of running penalty kills that allow a higher-than-average rate of shots against. And he quite often relies on the goaltending to bail the team out (Source). In the last two seasons, the Oilers 89.90% penalty kill save percentage has been the best in the league, but it was probably unrealistic to expect two aging netminders, one of which can’t stay healthy this season, to replicate that success.

With the issues on special teams identified, let’s switch over to even-strength where for the third season in a row under Holland and Tippett, the Oilers are posting a negative goal-differential.

The good news, is that overall the Oilers have actually been consistent all season at even-strength (5v5). The bad news is that they’ve been consistently medicore. Their Corsi For%, which serves as a proxy for puck possession and Fenwick For% which serves as a proxy for scoring chances has been around league average all season – nothing great and not terrible either. Their expected goal-share has consistently been right around the break-even mark – again just good enough but nowhere near the levels posted by the true top teams in the league.

While goaltending has slipped slightly at even-strength, the real driver of the Oilers results over the last 13 games has been been the team’s on-ice shooting percentage, which has been 6.71%. And it’s actually been when McDavid has been on the ice that the team shooting percentage has really dropped. In the first 21 games with McDavid on the ice, the Oilers team shooting percentage was 9.78% – slightly below McDavid’s career on-ice shooting percentage of 10.6%. In the last 13 games, that on-ice shooting percentage has dropped to 4.96% – well below where we would expect McDavid to be and indicating that his on-ice numbers should bounce back over the remainder of the season.

But regardless of how McDavid does, it should be concerning to the Oilers management that yet again the team is not posting very good shot-share numbers at even-strength and are going to really need their special teams to bail them out. It’s not likely that the Oilers will shoot to the top of the standings and will instead be in that mushy-middle of teams that aren’t quite division leaders and aren’t quite basement dwellers either.

What Holland and his group need to realize is that the Edmonton Oilers as constructed today are a mediocre hockey club. They’re not quite an offensive juggernaut, they’re not sound defensively, they’re not hard to play against. Even with two superstars, they’re just another middle of the pack team. These results, over three seasons now, aren’t good enough considering how much Holland is getting paid, how much money and assets he’s spent and the damage he’s done to the Oilers cap situation.

And if Holland after these three years doesn’t know what he has right now and can’t put his finger on the problems currently ailing the team, he really shouldn’t be allowed to construct an NHL roster.

Data: Natural Stat Trick