Joined host Jessica Ng on CBC Radio Active this afternoon to preview the Edmonton Oilers game three match against the Florida Panthers. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2024, June 12)
Topics we covered:
The Oilers issues generating offence so far, and how the Panthers have been able to slow them down at even-strength and the powerplay.
The overall play of Stuart Skinner, who is posting an abysmal 85% save percentage against Florida, well below the league average levels (~91%). Skinner needs to be league-average for the Oilers to have a chance this series.
What the Oilers need to address to increase their odds of winning game three and four at home, including looking for favorable matchups with last change on home ice.
Reasons for optimism that the Oilers can get themselves out of this current hole.
Thanks again to the team at CBC Edmonton for putting this all together!
The Edmonton Oilers special teams have kept the championship drive alive. The question now is if we can expect it to continue having success against the Florida Panthers.
One of the Edmonton Oilers’ major drivers for success this post-season has been their powerplay and penalty kill, which have produced outstanding results.
It’s been a factor in all three playoff rounds so far, as the Oilers have struggled to outscore opponents at even-strength, having only posted a +1 goal-differential over their 18 playoff games. They broke even in terms of goal-differential against the Los Angeles Kings, went +2 against the Vancouver Canucks and were a -1 against the Dallas Stars.
It’s really been the Oilers’ performance without McDavid’s line on the ice that’s caused these poor even-strength results. The team tends to get outshot and out-chanced consistently (46.54 percent expected goals for percentage), resulting in a -8 goal differential without their captain’s line and a +9 goal differential with him. The team, especially the depth players, are having issues converting on their chances at even-strength. And goaltending ranks as one of the worst among playoff teams in terms of save percentage and goals-saved above average.
Make no mistake, the special teams – featuring the top-end players and a lot of the depth players who are struggling at even-strength – have bailed this team out. And it’s hard to imagine the Oilers making it this far without the power play and penalty kill performing so well.
Powerplay
The Oilers have scored 19 power play goals in just under 74 minutes this post-season, a rate of 15.44 goals per hour. That’s one of the highest team rates in playoff history and isn’t even a level that the Oilers were running at during their regular season. The table below shows the Oilers’ regular season goal-scoring rate over rolling 18-game segments, with a blue line representing their current playoff scoring rate.
The Oilers’ results appear to be sustainable considering their skaters’ talent and overall health. Their current team shooting percentage of 19.39 percent is high, but this group was able to post a very similar rate over the full 2022/23 regular season – so it’s not totally out of the realm of possibility. Plus the group is currently generating 76.66 shots per hour, again one of the highest rates in playoff history and well ahead of the rest of the post-season teams.
It’s worth noting that the Florida Panthers have the potential to slow the Oilers power play down in this upcoming series. Their penalty kill has only allowed six goals in 85 minutes this post-season, a rate of 4.20 goals per hour that is second lowest among playoff teams – only behind Edmonton. The Panthers’ success is largely driven by their ability to prevent shots and chances, as their rate of 44.08 shots against per hour is the third-lowest in the league. And their goaltending save percentage ranks third best in the league. This post-season success appears to have carried over from their regular season. The Panthers finished with the fourth-lowest rate of shots against per hour (46.64) and the sixth-lowest rate of goals against per hour in the league (6.16).
Penalty kill
It’s remarkable how great the Oilers’ penalty kill has been this post-season, having shut down Los Angeles, who scored the 10th-highest rate of powerplay goals in the regular season, and Dallas, who scored the fifth-highest rate of powerplay goals in the regular season. The last power play goal the Oilers allowed was in game three against Vancouver on May 12th. In the ten games since, they’ve allowed zero.
A big reason for their success has been their ability to suppress offensive chances, as the club has allowed the second-lowest rate of shots against (39.87) among playoff teams. This strong defensive play in front of their goaltender is something that’s carried over from the regular season when the Oilers allowed the sixth-lowest rate of shots against (49.27 per hour). So it’s reasonable to expect the penalty kill success to continue, depending of course on if the goaltending can hold up. When shorthanded during the regular season, the Oilers team save percentage was the sixth worst in the league (84.68 percent). But it’s currently sitting at 94.92 percent in the playoffs, so there’s the possibility of some regression in the upcoming round.
The Panthers’ powerplay is generating plenty of chances this post-season, ranking third in terms of shots per hour (57.84). And it’s a carryover from the regular season when they finished with the second highest rate of shots per hour in the league. But they’ve had trouble converting on their chances during their playoff run, likely due to playing against some pretty elite goaltending. Tampa Bay, New York and Boston all finished top-five league wide when it came to shorthanded save percentage during the regular season. This has resulted in the Panthers’ powerplay scoring at a rate of 8.18 goals per hour, which is closer to league-average levels. Considering all this, it’s even more critical that the Oilers penalty killers continue to play strongly in front of Skinner, who, as mentioned above, could be at risk of some regression.
It’s astonishing that it’s taken the Edmonton Oilers ownership and different management groups this long to finally win a team-level award.
It’s a massive opportunity for the Edmonton Oilers to win their first championship in 34 years, but a lot is going to have to go right for them – especially at even-strength where they’ve only been okay at this post-season. Team awards have been hard to come by for this franchise when you consider the lack of division titles, conference titles and president trophies, but a championship this June is a very real possibility and can alleviate some of the frustrations this fan base has endured over the years.
So far this post-season, the Panthers have had better success than Edmonton, ranking first with a 56.36 percent goal-share (+7 goal differential) at even-strength. The Oilers, on the other hand, have just barely broken even in terms of goals, posting a 50.65 percent goal-share (+1 goal differential) that ranks sixth. The Panthers have also posted stronger shot-share numbers than Edmonton, ranking second among playoff teams with a Corsi For percentage of 55.49 percent and leading the group with an Expected Goals for percentage of 54.93 percent. Edmonton’s numbers aren’t bad either, as their Corsi For percentage ranks fifth. But their expected goals for percentage rank seventh.
While the Panthers are doing a good job at controlling the flow of play, spending more time in the offensive zone and generating shots, it appears that they’re having issues converting on their chances. Their current shooting percentage of 7.32 percent is below league-average levels but consistent with what they posted in the regular season (7.67 percent). Their results at even-strength this postseason appear to be driven by their goaltending, as their team save percentage sits at 92.28 percent, well ahead of Edmonton’s save percentage of 89.10 which is the second lowest in the league.
Among the 24 goalies who have played at least 40 even-strength minutes this season, Sergei Bobrovsky ranks ninth with a 92.40 percent save percentage and seventh with a goals-save above average of +1.54. Stuart Skinner on the other hand ranks 20th among the 24 goals with an 89.50 percent save percentage and last overall with a goals-saved above average of -7.73,
Below are the on-ice numbers for the Panthers and Oilers skaters, separated by position and sorted by total time on ice this post-season. The table included each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goals differential, and actual goals differential. A heat map has been applied to each metric to show how each skater compares with their teammates.
What stands out for Edmonton is that their top-end players are doing quite well when it comes to generating shots and goals. But the further you go down the lineup, the more things start to drop off. In their 16 games this postseason, the Oilers have played about 41 percent of their even-strength time without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice. And in those minutes, the Oilers have been pounded on the score sheet – being outscored 14-7. This is largely driven by the fact that they tend to get outshot without their star players on the ice, and have posted an Expected Goals for percentage of only 47.69 percent.
Florida, on the other hand, has posted much better results without their top-end players on the ice this postseason. If we use Sam Reinhart and Matthew Tkachuk as proxies for their top lines, we uncover the fact that in over 340 minutes without their star players, or 41 percent of their total ice time, the Panthers have outscored opponents 11-8 during this run. Looking at the on-ice numbers above, we see that the vast majority of Florida’s skaters, including those on depth forward line and defence pairings, are posting positive shot and scoring chance differentials. And it’s reasonable to expect their success to generate chances to continue.
Edmonton had their way with Dallas’ top-end players in the last series, which wasn’t overly surprising as some of the Stars forwards were performing poorly at even-strength heading into the Western Conference finals. This upcoming match-up against the Panthers is going to be a lot tougher, and the Oilers will need much better even-strength performances from depth players like Henrique and Brown. Especially if the Panthers’ top players can slow down McDavid’s line. I suspect we’ll see the Panthers target the weaker spots on the Oilers’ roster through tactics and line matchups, especially the blue line.
Had the chance to do radio and television for CBC Edmonton this evening to talk about the Edmonton Oilers and their upcoming final round against the Florida Panthers. Full radio segment with Min Dhariwal is here: CBC Radio Active (2024, June 3)
The key drivers for the Oilers success in the post-season, including their star players and their penalty kill.
What went wrong with Dallas and what their main challenges were.
The challenges the Oilers have gone through this season, and what adjustments they made along the way.
The key decisions made by the coaching staff that’s helped pushed the team along, including the goaltending and tweaks to the line combinations.
The emergence of Broberg, and the pressure of being only one of two prospects that have been drafted and developed since Ken Holland became general manager.
The Florida Panthers, their strengths and what’s gotten them this far in the playoffs, two years in a row.
Big thank you to the team at CBC for putting the radio and television segments together!
Heading into game five of the western conference series, here’s how the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars have compared so far at even-strength (5v5).
While the number of goals have been even, the Oilers are posting better performance numbers. Over the four games, the Oilers have posted a Corsi For percentage of 56 percent and an Expected Goals For percentage of 54 percent. But Dallas is getting more saves right now, and converting on more of their chances. Edmonton’s shooting percentage is slightly higher than what they posted during the regular season (8.81 percent). It’s their goaltending that’s been below league average at even-strength, and it needs to be better for the Oilers to have a chance of making the finals.
Worth noting that it’s the Oilers depth players that are having issues scoring goals. With McDavid on the ice, the Oilers have outscored Dallas 7-4. But without him on the ice, they’ve been outscored 3-6. The other lines are doing a good job at controlling the flow of play and creating chances. But the team shooting percentage is only 5.45 percent.
The good news for Edmonton is that Dallas’ goaltending isn’t anything special either right now, which isn’t overly surprising. Oettinger played over 3,000 minutes during the regular season, similar to Skinner, and posted an identical save percentage – 90.70 percent in all situations.
On special teams, neither club has scored a powerplay goal. The Oilers have somehow only had 10 minutes of powerplay time in four games, but have done quite well at generating shots and chances. So it feels like it’s a matter of time before it becomes a factor again. The good news is that the Oilers penalty kill has continued to excel, not only continuing to prevent shots and chances, but also scoring a shorthanded goal in game four.
It’s fair to expect the Oilers penalty kill to continue having success, as long as the goaltending remains steady. The Oilers have allowed only three goals in sixteen playoff games so far, largely due to the fact that they’re allowing the second lowest rate of shots against (38.08 per hour) and unblocked shot attempts against (58.64 per hour). These shot suppression rates align pretty closely with what the Oilers posted during the regular season. The difference was that the Oilers weren’t consistently getting league-average goaltending when shorthanded – posting the sixth worst save percentage in the league. So as long as they can get league-average goaltending, we can expect the Oilers penalty kill to continue dominating.
Below is a snapshot at how the Oilers skaters are performing against Dallas at even-strength, including their on-ice shot-differentials and results.
The top end of the roster is doing quite well, with McDavid, Hyman and Bouchard spending a lot of time in the offensive zone and getting good results – and often against Dallas’ top players. I was a little surprised to see Ekholm’s numbers slip this series, as he’s consistently posted excellent on-ice numbers, so it’s likely that he’s dealing with an injury now.
Couple players to keep an eye on up front and on the back end. Brown, while being good on the penalty kill this series, isn’t getting much done at even-strength against the Stars depth players. Henrique is another player who has shown his value at times, but the Oilers tend to get out shot when he’s been on the ice. On the flip side, the Oilers might not be getting individual production from McLeod. But with the right linemates, like he has right now, his results should improve. On the backend, I think I’ve written enough about Ceci for a few years now. So it’s not surprising that he’s posting some of the worst shot-share numbers in the league.
And here’s a quick glance of the Stars. My main takeaway is that the Oilers top end players are taking care of the Stars top end players. It’s the Stars depth players who are making the biggest impact, making the line combination decisions even more important.
Looking forward to what should be an entertaining western conference final between the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars.
Both clubs had great generated plenty of offence in the regular season, each consistently near the top of the league in terms of shot and scoring chance rates in all situations. And that translated into plenty of goals, with Dallas finishing with the third highest rate of goals per hour (3.54) and Edmonton finishing fourth (3.53). Both teams also had excellent results on the powerplay, with Edmonton finishing with the second highest rate of goals (10.53 per hour), while Dallas finished fifth (9.15 per hour). And a lot of their strengths from the regular season are transferring to the playoffs.
Here’s how both teams have performed so far in the 2024 playoffs at even-strength. Pretty evenly matched clubs, with Dallas having the upper-hand when it comes to goaltending. Dallas appears to be struggling to score goals, which is a little odd considering their shooting percentage over the regular season was one the best in the western conference (9.33 percent). Should note, however, that over the final twenty five games of their season, the Stars did see their shooting percentage slip a little, so maybe we shouldn’t be too surprised.
And here’s a quick glance at how the Dallas Stars skaters have performed in their first two rounds.
Interesting to note that while Tanev is having excellent results, he and Lindell could potentially be exploited by the Oilers top line players as the Stars tend to allow a lot of shots and chances with them on the ice. The Stars top defensive pairing is going to be lethal, so I’m curious to see how Knoblauch runs the forward lines with last change at home in games three and four.
It’s been a bit of a roller coaster for the Edmonton Oilers in this series against the Vancouver Canucks. They’ve blown leads in one game, and then scored a winning goal in the final minutes of another. They’ve been completely outplayed one game and then bounced back with a dominant performance the next.
The good news for Edmonton is that there are reasons for optimism heading into game seven. They’ve controlled the flow of play at even-strength (5v5), generating a higher share of shots and scoring chance. The powerplay has been generating a lot of offence and producing at a good clip. And the goaltending appears to finally be stabilizing as their save percentage has been at league average (90%) or better the last three games.
Below is a summary of how the two teams have performed at even-strength after six games, and what their actual results have been. The Oilers hold the edge when it comes to shot-share metrics, posting a 58 percent Corsi For percentage and a 52 percent Expected Goals For percentage. This has them at the top among the other second round teams. Because both teams have had issues in net, the Canucks and Oilers rank first and second, respectively, among the second round teams when it comes to shooting percentage.
Special teams is where the Oilers have outperformed the Canucks as the powerplay continues to be excellent – generating a high rate of chances and scoring five times this series, which translates to a rate of 10.50 goals per hour. This is almost identical to their powerplay scoring rate during the regular season (10.53), which ranked second highest in the league. The Oilers penalty kill has also been excellent, allowing only three goals in six games – a goals against rate of 5.83 per hour. The good news is that their penalty kill results appear to be sustainable as the club has allowed only 21 shots against in six games, a rate of 40.78 per hour, which is one of the lowest among the second round teams.
Here’s a quick glance at how the Oilers skaters have done this series.
Good to see that Nurse and Ceci have been split up as the two have been posting terrible shot-share numbers together for quite some time. Nurse’s overall minutes at even-strength have been reduced, which I think has helped his performance numbers improve. It’s also interesting to see the negative impact Ceci is having on Kulak now.
Up front, there’s plenty of positives especially among the top two lines. They’re consistently out-shooting the Canucks and they should be due for some more 5v5 goals – especially Draisaitl. I do wonder if we’ll see McLeod break out of his scoring funk. The good news for him is that the Canucks struggle to generate shots and goals when he’s on the ice, so his value remains high.
I’d expect the Canucks to really leverage their last-change, and target the Oilers bottom two lines in game seven. Not a lot going on for the Oilers when McDavid or Draisaitl are on the bench as they’ve been outscored 4-2 in 134 minutes at even-strength without their two star players. The Oilers depth players are doing a good job outshooting the Canucks (52-44), but aren’t getting shots from dangerous areas – resulting in an on-ice shooting percentage of only 3.85 percent.
And here’s how the Canucks skaters have fared this series.
The top of their order is having a rough time, with Miller’s first line spending a lot of time against McDavid’s line and spending more time without the puck. Pettersson is the one bright spot among the forwards, and does appear to be gradually improving. He along with Hoglander are more noticeable, and could be the tandem to watch in game seven – especially with Boeser expected to be out of the lineup. Getting them away from the Oilers star players and against the Oilers depth players could be key.
Had the pleasure of joining host Judy Aldous on CBC’s Alberta at Noon radio program on Friday afternoon. Got to talk Edmonton Oilers, hockey fandom, and much more.
Enjoyed this a lot as I got to spend the full hour on the show and cover a bunch of great topics.
It’ll be interesting to see what the pace will be like in the upcoming second round series between the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks. The Oilers are coming off a five-game series against the Kings, where the two clubs posted some of the highest rate of shots and goals among the first round teams. And the Canucks are coming off a six-game series against the Predators where shots and goals were hard to come by. Considering the Canucks were consistently posting some of the highest rates of shots during the regular season, I’d expect their offensive game to bounce back, especially against an Oilers team that has some deficiencies and likely isn’t going to be blocking shots at the same rate the Predators were.
I don’t think it’ll be enough though to knock-off the Oilers who have a lot of firepower up front. The star players are healthy. Their powerplay is clicking. And the goaltending, while not great, has been good enough. What the Canucks can really take advantage of is the drop-off in shot-share numbers and results when McDavid isn’t on the ice at even-strength. In the six game series against the Kings, the Oilers outscored the Kings 6-3 with McDavid, but were outscored 6-9 without him. These poor results were largely driven by the fact that the Oilers spent a lot of time without the puck, posting a 41% Corsi For percentage and an Expected Goals For percentage of 43%.
Here’s how the Oilers skaters performed at even-strength against the Kings.
Up front, there’s a little concern with the second line, but Draisaitl tends to outperform his shot metrics in the playoffs. There’s still a risk that his results eventually take a hit, especially since he’s spending a lot of time without the puck. Nugent-Hopkins and Kane were also on the ice for a lot of shots against, and could be a target for the Canucks as they’ve struggled off and on during the regular season. Foegele had some poor results as well, and was gradually demoted as the series wore on, so it’ll be interesting to see if he bounces back. McLeod is going to be critical once again as he’s done really well playing against top competition and holding his own in terms of shot differentials.
The big area for concern is that Nurse-Ceci tandem, who played primarily with Draisaitl’s line. Expect to see the Canucks go after these two, especially on the forecheck to create turnovers. Also a little leery about the Canucks goaltending being the difference maker at even-strength. Silovs hasn’t played a lot during the regular season, and I would argue is better rested than Skinner. He was excellent against the Predators, and could easily go on a heater here.
And here’s how the Canucks skaters did at even-strength against the Predators in the first round.
Miller, Boeser and Hughes were the play drivers in that first round, and it’s interesting to see that Hughes actual results were lower than expected. The Canucks also got some good results from their depth players with Suter posting a +3 on ice goal differential. Pettersson is getting a lot of negative attention for his poor results, but if he’s healthy he should bounce back, along with Hoglander – his most common linemate in the first round. Both players finished the regular season with some of the best on-ice numbers among the Canucks forwards. The Canucks bottom pair defencemen appear to be the weak links – something the Oilers depth needs to take advantage of. I’m also not convinced about Zadorov, as he posted pretty poor on-ice numbers to close the regular season.
Here’s the Canucks skaters performed over the final twenty five games of the season.
Should be an interesting matchup. Plenty of skill among both teams and potential for a higher-paced series.
With the Edmonton Oilers set to face off against the Vancouver Canucks in the second round, I wanted to get a sense of how each team’s special teams have performed in the regular season and this year’s postseason. Both teams finished at the top of Pacific Division table in the regular season, largely due to their dominance at even-strength (5v5). The Canucks posted the second-best goal-share in the league (57.89 percent, +51 goal differential), while the Oilers ranked fifth (55.78 goals for percentage, +40 goal differential). So the difference in this upcoming series could come down to how well each team executes on special teams.
So far in the playoffs, the Oilers have been absolutely dominant on the penalty kill. They didn’t allow a single goal in the 24 minutes they were short-handed against the Los Angeles Kings in their five-game series. This was largely because they limited the Kings to only 16 shots in total. That translates to a rate of 40.20 shots per hour, which ranked 13th in the playoffs. The Kings weren’t great at generating powerplay shots during the regular season – ranking 27th in the league with 49.05 shots per hour – so it wasn’t overly surprising to see them struggle against an Oilers club that allowed the sixth lowest rate of shots against and had league average goaltending. And this is an area where the Oilers might have an edge over the Canucks.
In their first-round series against the Nashville Predators, the Canucks powerplay generated only 10 shots in about 21 minutes (28.35 per hour) and scored twice. This wasn’t overly surprising, considering the Predators’ penalty kill allowed the tenth-lowest rate of shots against in the regular season (52.05) and really suffocated the Canucks in all aspects of the game. The Canucks powerplay has to be better to overcome the Oilers penalty kill. Still, it’s hard to have too much confidence in them when they generated a league-average rate of shots on the powerplay during the regular season. Not expecting the Oilers penalty kill to have another stretch where they allow zero goals – but they have a good chance of being a difference-maker against a Canucks powerplay that is struggling to create opportunities.
The Oilers’ powerplay should also continue to do well in the second round, but they might not post the same numbers that they did against the Kings. The Oilers’ powerplay really had their way in the first round, posting the highest rate of shots and leading the league with nine goals in 27 minutes. This wasn’t overly surprising since the Kings, while having excellent results on the penalty kill during the regular season, had some underlying issues that indicated their results weren’t sustainable. The reasons for the Oilers’ success are obvious: they’re running with the same cluster of players who are healthy and have had great results over a long time together. And there’s little reason to believe that the Oilers’ powerplay would stall in the second round.
The Canucks penalty kill, however, should put up a better fight against the Oilers than the Kings did. The Canucks posted the third-lowest rate of shots among the first-round teams and allowed only two goals . And while they hovered around league-average levels when it came to shots against and goals against during the regular season, the Canucks penalty kill really improved over the final twenty-five games before the playoffs.
Below is the Canucks rate of shots against on the penalty kill during the regular season, over rolling twenty-five game periods. The blue line across represents the league-average rate of shots against during the regular season (55.05 per hour).
While the Canucks hovered around league average rates of shots against for most of the year, they posted a rate of 44.91 in their final twenty five games – which was the sixth lowest rate in the league. The rate of shots against is something that the coaching staff can control through tactics and player deployment, so I’d be interested to know what adjustments’ they made that helped drive their performance. It’ll be interesting to see how they perform against an Oilers powerplay that’s red-hot, and if they’ll at least be able to limit the shots and chances against.
The SuperFan 