The Oilers are off to a respectable 3-3 start this season, with big overtime wins against the Jets in Winnipeg and Boston at home last week.

The biggest and most publicized issue has been their secondary scoring at even-strength and the lack of production from Leon Draisaitl who has struggled significantly on the second line. His numbers right across the board are poor. Despite playing the third most minutes among Oilers forwards at even-strength, he only has two points (two goals) – good for a rate of 0.71 points per hour. Based on his personal numbers from the past two seasons and the ice time he gets, a rate of 2.0 points per hour should be the bare minimum he should finish the season with.

Over the course of 84 minutes at even-strength (5v5) this season with Draisaitl on the ice, the Oilers have been outscored 6-1 and have posted a Corsi For percentage (a proxy for possession) of 38.67%. The team has seen a significant drop in offence, getting out-shot and out-chanced by a large margin when Draisaitl has been deployed – especially concerning considering he’s expected to be the Oilers long-term solution for scoring depth.

You can expect a slight drop off when comparing Draisaitl’s on ice numbers to his off-ice numbers considering that McDavid is the top line center. But this is just staggering and worth monitoring over the next few weeks.

It’s also alarming to see that even when Draisaitl has been on the ice with McDavid, the numbers are dreadful. What should be considered as a nuclear option for the Oilers has fared very poorly – in 16 minutes together this season at even-strength (5v5), the Oilers have posted a 42.25% Corsi For percentage, and been outscored 2-1 (a 33.3% goal-share). Considering that the two have a long history of playing well together, I don’t think these poor results will last. But I think the concern here should be that Draisaitl could be dealing with a health issue, or possibly a conditioning issue since his pre-season numbers were sub-par as well. It remains to be seen if this is a temporary problem or something that has long term implications.

There are a lot of ways to cut and slice Draisaitl’s numbers this season to show how poor he’s been. My favorite involves McDavid and Klefbom. When Klefbom, arguably the Oilers best defencemen this season, has been on the ice with McDavid, the results have surprisingly been poor – 46.46% Corsi For percentage and a 50.0% goal-share (1 GF, 1 GA) over 53 minutes together. However, if you adjust the numbers to exclude the 10 minutes Draisaitl was on the ice with them, the possession numbers improve drastically – up to 50.5% Corsi For percentage – and the goal-share is 100.0% (1 GF, 0 GA). Anyways…

Quick notes on the Oilers special teams. The Oilers powerplay (5v4) is currently doing well, as they rank 7^th in the league with a goals-for per hour rate of 10.39. You can probably expect that number to drop as it’s a fairly high compared to previous league-wide results. The target should be 7.0 goals, which would have them in the top ten league wide. For now, the top powerplay unit featuring five left shooters is getting results, generating unblocked shots (Fenwick) at a rate of 75.0 per hour with McDavid on the ice. That number is right around the league average from last season – but there should be no reason why that number couldn’t climb up with McDavid on the ice.

McLellan is clearly running his top unit as much as he can, with little time given to the likes of Puljujarvi and Yamamoto – two skilled right shot wingers who could help to diversify the shooting options on the powerplay. There’s a very clear drop off in time-on-ice (TOI) here:

Player (5v4)	GP	TOI
Connor McDavid	6	23.20
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	6	22.37
Leon Draisaitl	6	22.23
Oscar Klefbom	6	22.18
Milan Lucic	6	21.15
Jesse Puljujarvi	6	6.28
Ryan Strome	6	5.63
Evan Bouchard	5	5.33
Kailer Yamamoto	6	4.75
Ty Rattie	5	4.15
Jujhar Khaira	6	1.75
Darnell Nurse	6	1.72
Matthew Benning	4	1.05
Adam Larsson	6	1.00

Something else to consider when looking at which players are deployed frequently in various game states is the proportion of total time that the Oilers are trailing in games.

A big reason why McLellan is running his favorite guys on the powerplay (and the reason for McDavid leading the league in average ice time) is due to the fact that the Oilers are trailing a lot – fourth most often in the league. The good news is the Oilers have the offensive talent to drive results, unlike in previous years when the team trailed a lot and were forced to rely heavily on rookie defencemen. Now it’s a matter of using the right on-ice tactics to get the most out of the players and to generate scoring chances and goals.

The Oilers penalty kill (4v5) has been alright so far. The club ranks 17th in the league with a goals against rate of 7.89 per hour – which is just under the target they should have this season (7.00). It’s right around league average, and far (far) better than what they allowed last season shorthanded. What’s encouraging is the team defence at 4v5 as the Oilers rank 11th in the league when it comes to unblocked shots against per hour and allow the second lowest rate of scoring chances against. A potential problem worth monitoring is the goaltending as the team save percentage on the penalty kill currently ranks 17th in the league.

Another area worth monitoring is how players are being instructed to play, and if the team will continue relying on low-probability shots from the point. The Oilers currently rank last in the league when it comes to high-danger shot attempts, and fifth last when it comes to scoring chances for.

We’re six games in to the season, and the Oilers have plenty of work to do if they want to compete for a playoff spot. The good news is that the team is healthy and the top pairing of Klefbom-Larsson has performed well. What remains an issue is secondary scoring, a flaw that has existed for the last two seasons, with the pressure on Draisaitl to produce expected to increase. And we can definitely expect a lot more questions about the coaching tactics if the team can’t produce scoring chances or if the special teams begins to collapse.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Viz

Related:

• Couple thoughts on Leon Draisaitl and overvaluing assets – The SuperFan (2017, May 8)
• Generating offence on the penalty kill – The Copper & Blue (2018, September 26)
• The Edmonton Oilers with and without McDavid (Part III) – The Copper & Blue (2017, January 11)

 

 

 

With so much parity in the NHL due to the cap system and a higher distribution of talent across the 31 franchises, it’s always easy to find reasonable comparables for any club. There’s always a team to emulate or a model to follow, and it’s informative to look back a season or two and seek out some much needed guidance or inspiration.

For the 14 clubs that missed the playoffs in 2017/18, it’s worth knowing who else missed the playoffs in previous seasons but bounced back their following season. It’s worth exploring how they did it, and if it’s at all possible to emulate their success. And with their elevation to contender status – largely due to a productive set of core players, scoring depth, good goaltending and a talented prospect pool – the Winnipeg Jets are currently providing a blueprint. And it’s a blueprint not only for teams that want to contend for a championship, but for those just trying to make the playoffs after missing out the season before.

McDavid isn’t too far off here. In 2015/16 the Jets finished last in their division with a 35-39-8 record, good for 78 points. That’s an identical point total to the 2017/18 Oilers who finished 63-40-6, 12th the West and 6th in the Pacific. Worth noting that  while the point totals were the same, the Oilers had a slightly worse goal differential finishing -29.

But I think we get young Connor’s main point here. The Jets went from last in their division to being one of the best in the league, making it to the conference finals in the 2018 playoffs. And along the way they created a template for other franchises to follow.

Season	Record	Points	Goal Differential	West	Division
2015/16	35-39-8	78	-24	11th	7th
2016/17	40-35-7	87	-7	9th	5th
2017/18	52-20-10	114	+59	2nd	2nd

What’s interesting is that while the Jets are currently in a much better position for long term success, they did at one point did share some similarities to the disastrous 2017/18 Oilers.

The first thing that jumps out is the poor goaltending each team had to deal with at even-strength (5v5). Both clubs were right around the league average when it came to adjusted Corsi For% (a proxy for possession) as well as the rate of goals for per hour. What really sunk them were their goaltenders, as both the 2015/16 Jets and the 2017/18 Oilers ranked 23rd overall in their respective seasons when it came to the team save percentage at even-strength.

The next thing that jumps out are the special teams. We know how bad the Oilers were in 2017/18 on the powerplay and the penalty kill. What’s interesting is that the Jets were just as pitiful.

In 2015/16, the Jets finished the season with a poor scoring rate of 5.25 goals for per hour on the powerplay (5v4), ranking 28th in the league. And on the penalty kill (4v5), they allowed 7.84 goals against per hour, also 28th in the league, thanks in large part to a 23rd ranked team save percentage and the third highest rate of shots and scoring chances against per hour. This had to have been maddening for the coaches as they seemed to have an okay handle at even-strength, finishing the season with a 51.0% adjusted Corsi For percentage and a 50.0% share of the goals when five-on-five.

The Jets still had issues with goaltending and special teams the following season in 2016/17. The overall point total improved, but it could’ve been significantly better had their goaltending at even-strength been closer to league average and not 27th overall. Scoring goals again wasn’t an issue in 2016/17 for the Jets as they scored at a rate of 2.42 goals per hour, good for 11th in the league. But they just didn’t get strong enough goaltending.

And special teams continued to be a problem in 2016/17 for the Jets. They finished 23rd overall on the powerplay, scoring 5.79 goals per hour. And they finished 25th in the league on the penalty kill allowing 7.56 goals against per hour. Even though the Jets moved closer to league average when it came to the rate of shots and scoring chances against when shorthanded, goaltending again was a problem as the club finished 24th in the league when it came to team save percentage.

Fast forward to 2017/18 and the Jets showed significant improvement on special teams. They finished the season scoring 7.95 goals per hour on the powerplay – fifth best the league – due in large part to having a triggerman like Patrick Laine. And on the penalty kill, they had the sixth best rate of goals against with 6.00 per hour. This was largely on the back of the their goaltending which finished tops in the league shorthanded even though the club allowed a high rate of shots and scoring chances against.

So to re-cap, if the Oilers want to follow the Jets path, they’ll need their goaltending to be above league average and they’ll need their special teams to produce and not be a drag on their overall goaltending. Management has brought in a Mikko Koskinen to hopefully alleviate some of the workload off of goaltender Cam Talbot who has struggled. And there has been significant change to the coaching staff, with Trent Yawney being added to apply his experience from Anaheim where they had one of the better penalty kills in the league (even though it was largely due to goaltending). And they’ve added Manny Viveiros, who has had success with the powerplay on his previous teams.

The other item worth mentioning is the scoring talent the Jets have and how the Oilers intend on replicating their output.

A big reason why the Jets were able to push the needle from a -7 goal differential in 2016/17 to a +59 the following season was because of Patrick Laine as well as the emergence of Kyle Connor. The former is a bonafide star player, selected second overall in 2016, while the latter was selected 17th overall in 2015 and required some time in the AHL. Combine these two with the likes of Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Nikolaj Ehlers, among others, and you have plenty of scoring talent that could be spread across three scoring lines, and that’s why they have so many supporters that even get Saturday Morning Tailgate Gear with their logo on it.

Worth noting that the Jets went from having only three players with 20 goals or more in 2015/16  – Scheifele (29), Wheeler (26), Stafford (21) – to five in 2017/18 – Laine (44), Connor (31), Ehlers (29), Wheeler (23), Scheifele (23).

In 2017/18, the Oilers had only three players that scored 20 goals or more: Connor McDavid (41), Leon Draisaitl (25) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (24). When the Oilers finished with 103 points the previous season, they had five players with 20 goals or more: McDavid (30), Draisaitl (29), Maroon (27), Lucic (23) and Eberle (20).

The question for the Oilers: which of the current prospects is going to emerge and provide some much needed offence for the Oilers in 2018/19? You can make a case for either of  Jesse Puljujärvi or Kailer Yamamoto to score 20-25 goals with the disclaimer that they’ll need a talented centerman and time on the powerplay. But if neither pans out, or produces like Kyle Connor and helps the team ice three scoring lines, it’s going to be another season struggling for a wild card spot. And another season outside of the contender discussion.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Database

Slight digression: One of my favorite things about hockey analysis and writing is the continuous learning involved. It feels like any game, any play, any stat, any comment from a coach or player could spark an idea worth exploring further. And while you may not always bring out something significant through your analysis or fact checking, you pick up bits of information along the way. Things you may not have known about or thought you knew about but were completely wrong.