Pretty impressive turnaround for the Edmonton Oilers who are seventh in the western conference with a 0.592 points percentage, and fourth-best in the Pacific. They have the fifth best scoring rate in the league in all situations and sixth highest at even-strength (5v5). Their even-strength goal-share of 52.76% is eighth in the league and they’ll need to keep that going. Currently, six of the top ten teams in goal-share are in the western conference, four of which are in the Pacific division.

What’s especially impressive is the number of regulation wins the Oilers have posted since the coaching change. Since Kris Knoblauch took over behind the bench, the Oilers have won 19 games with 15 of them done without overtime or shootout. That’s the fifth highest number of regulation wins in the league since November 12th (when the coaching change happened). Worth noting that 12 of their wins (or 63%) have been by two goals or more – which is a better indicator of the team’s talent than one-goal games.

The Oilers even-strength (5v5) play has been solid, as they’ve outscored opponents 64-46 (58.18% goal-share, +18 goal differential) over the last 25 games since the coaching change. And their underlying numbers, like their 55.52 Corsi for percentage and 58.85 Expected goals-for percentage indicates that the 5v5 results are real and sustainable.

And while the Oilers are making the Pacific division standings interesting again, it’s worth noting that the rest of the teams in the Pacific are also posting some solid underlying numbers. In the last 25 games, the top ten teams in expected goals for percentage features four teams in the Pacific (table below is sorted by xGF%). The difference might come down to special teams, where some of the Pacific division teams are getting results on the powerplay or penalty kill. Covered that in my recent Pacific division check-in here.

It’s also worth keeping tabs on goaltending deployment across the division, which is going to have an impact on their playoff runs. While most teams are going towards a 1B/1A split between goalies, with most starters playing 59.90 percent of the team’s minutes this season, the Oilers are really riding their starter. Stuart Skinner has now played 70.60 percent of the Oilers total minutes this season, which is seventh highest in the league. That’s just behind Thatcher Demko, who has played 70.80 percent of Vancouver’s total minutes, and (interestingly) Cam Talbot who has played 72.90 percent of Los Angeles minutes. May recall Todd McLellan consistently starting Talbot in Edmonton in the 2016/17 regular season, where he played 86.70 percent of the total minutes. And how that impacted the Oilers playoff run that season.

Back to Edmonton’s current situation. If Calvin Pickard isn’t going to get regular deployment to give Skinner a rest and keep him fresh for the playoff race and (hopefully a playoff run), then management needs to address this and get someone the coaching staff actually trusts. Even since the coaching change (and Campbell’s demotion to Bakersfield), it’s been all Skinner who has played 73 percent of the team’s total ice time in the last 25 games.

The top six forward group, now featuring Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele, is also crushing it right now since the Oilers made adjustments during their game against New Jersey on December 21st. Here’s how the top two line have performed over the last nine games at even-strength.

What’s a little concerning is how the bottom six have played the last nine games, with them not creating much and not allowing much either. In 139 minutes over the last nine games, the third and fourth lines have combined for 4 goals for, 4 goals against. And that’s largely because their Corsi For percentage is only 48% and their Expected Goals-for percentage is 45%. A whole lot of nothing going on there, which is concerning considering how big of a role team depth has on long playoff runs. Definitely an area to address by management, especially if McLeod is going to be on the second line.

One last thought on the new second line. It does re-affirm my belief that Draisaitl’s success largely depends on having a linemate that can also play center. McDavid is the obvious example, and so is Nugent-Hopkins who formed a line with Draisaitl and Yamamoto in the past. But I also recall a couple seasons ago when Draisaitl was on a line with Ryan Strome and Jujhar Khaira (both of which played center in their careers on depth lines) and had some decent success with them. In 108 minutes together between 2017-2019 (when Strome was an Oiler), they posted an on-ice goal-share of 56% (5 GF, 4 GA), and had a Corsi for percentage of 52% and an Expected goals-for percentage of 55%. So I’m not totally surprised that Draisiatl has found some chemistry with McLeod.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com

After 35 games into the regular season, the Edmonton Oilers are finally within striking distance of a wild-card spot in the western conference. A previous eight-game winning streak, and this current five-game winning game streak has pushed them to fourth in the Pacific division and ninth in the west (as of December 31st, 2023), having now accumulated 37 points and posting a 0.544 points percentage.

Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue-adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’sTrick’s methodology.

As mentioned at the last check-in, there were plenty of reasons to believe the Oilers would eventually climb up the standings. The team’s even-strength (5v5) performance has been strong all season, with the club continuing to post some of the strongest shot-share percentages and expected goal shares in the league. And not a lot of of teams have pulled away in the standings. As long as the Oilers can continue getting average goaltending and depth scoring at even-strength, they should be able to secure a spot.

Below is a high-level snapshot of how each player’s on-ice numbers have been at even-strength (5v5) this season, split between forwards and defencemen and sorted by total ice-time. Included are the metrics I use to assess a player’s performance (i.e., shots and expected goals) as well as their actual on-ice results (i.e., goal differential). I’ve also included each player’s PDO, which assesses how lucky/unlucky they’ve been, and if we can expect their results to improve over the course of the season. A basic heat map has been applied to show how each player compares to the rest of their squad. 

We know who the individual drivers have been this season and I’ve written enough about Kane’s season, so let’s focus on PDO and which players might see some improved results. Up front, I think Draisaitl’s and Foegele’s on-ice goal-differentials are bound to improve. They’re skating on a very effective second-line with McLeod, with the trio outscoring teams 9-2 in 48 minutes together. They might not be able to sustain this 82% goal-share, but their results should remain strong as they’re posting a 67% Corsi for percentage and expected goal share together. On the back-end, I think we’ll see Bouchard’s results improve as he continues to post strong on-ice shot-share numbers and skates with top-end players, but has one of the lowest PDO’s on the team.

Finally, here’s a quick look at how the western conference teams are doing on special teams, sorted by their points percentage. I’ve included the shots for and against to assess their performance and the goals for/against to assess the actual results.

Edmonton’s powerplay continues to be one of the best, no surprise. And their penalty kill results should gradually improve as they’re allowing one of the lowest rates of shots against. That’s a positive sign as the last thing they need in this playoff race is their special teams costing them wins as it’s done in the past. Looking at the teams Edmonton is competing with for playoff spots, Vegas and Colorado look like they have things figured out. As well as Nashville who should get better penalty kill results. I don’t see Arizona staying in the race as they’re even-strength performance numbers have been poor along with their penalty kill. And Minnesota is another team that could be sunk by their special teams.

Will be interesting to see how things play out over the next month with Edmonton playing a lot of the weaker teams in the league with no back-to-backs scheduled. If things go well, the Oilers could push for third in the Pacific. For now, it’ll be key to bank points and create some separation from the rest of the wild-card pack.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Glossary:

• Points-percentage (Point%) – The total points accumulated divided by the points that were available, including extra time.
• Corsi for percentage (CF%) – The proportion of all the shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., corsi for/(corsi for + corsi against). This is used as a proxy for possession and is the best at predicting a team’steam’s future share of goals (GF%). (Source: Hockey Great Tapes – Draglikepull)
• Fenwick for percentage (FF%) – The proportion of all the unblocked shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Fenwick for/(Fenwick for + aenwick against). This is used as a proxy for shot quality and considers shot blocking a repeatable skill.
• Expected goals for percentage (xGF%) – This is a weighting placed on every unblocked shot based on the probability of the shot becoming a goal. This depends on the type of shot, location and uses historical shot and goals data to come up with the probability for each unblocked shot.
• Goals for percentage (GF%) – The proportion of all the goals that the team scored and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Goals for/(Goals for + goals against).
• Shooting percentage (SH%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal that became goals (i.e., total goals divided by the total shots on goal).
• Save percentage (SV%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal against that were saved (i.e., 1-(totals goals allowed divided by the total shots on goal against)).