Scrivens

January 30, 2014 / sunilagni / Leave a comment

Source: Edmonton Oilers

Unbelievable performance by goaltender Ben Scrivens tonight as the Oilers shutout the powerhouse San Jose Sharks. How the Oilers allowed that many scoring chances and still won the game, a shutout no less, is beyond me.

Scrivens set a new record for most saves in a shutout win with 59 stops. Here’s hoping he can continue playing well and extend the current three-game winning streak.

It can easily be pointed out that the team played horrific defense and allowed way too many quality scoring chances. They really did luck out against one of the top teams in the league.

But in the midst of another losing season, it’s nice to have one of these memorable wins. Lord knows we’ve been burned by a hot goalies enough times, so it’s nice to be on the winning end for once.

Recommended Links

Ben F’n Scrivens!!! – The Copper and Blue

Alumni Council Meeting – Alumni Pride Chapter, Research at UAlberta, Volunteer Events

January 29, 2014April 28, 2014 / sunilagni / Leave a comment

Here’s a quick recap of the topics discussed at the latest Alumni Council meeting.

We learned about a new Alumni Pride Chapter here at the University of Alberta. From the Alumni and Friends website:

We are proposing to develop the Pride Chapter to provide opportunities for sexual and gender minority (LGBTQ) and allied alumni to meet, socialize, and support current students and LGBTQ programs on the U of A campuses. Collectively, we are committed to making the University of Alberta a more welcoming, inclusive and supportive place for all LGBTQ students, faculty and staff.

Dr. Lorne Babiuk, VP of Research at the U of A, provided the Council with some information on his department and answered questions about funding and priorities. To learn more, check out the UAlberta Research & Creative Activities website.

Dr. Babiuk noted that Alumni play a major role in the development of research. Not only can they tap into the many resources and programs available, but they also promote the U of A to those unfamiliar with the great research being done.

Worth noting that the Faculty of Extension continues making major contributions in the research world. For more information about the different institutes and centers, visit the Faculty of Extension website.

Council also discussed new ways to support and encourage volunteerism among Alumni. It’s been amazing to see the volunteer work done by Alumni as well as current students in the community. For more information about how you can get involved and make a difference, check out the Alumni & Friends Volunteer website.

Congrats to Council member, and MACT colleague, Glenn Kubish. His blog article, The Accidental Protester, which was published in New Trail Magazine, received a CASE award. More details can be found on the UAlberta Tumblr site.

Thoughts on the Oilers: Rock Bottom

January 22, 2014January 22, 2014 / sunilagni / Leave a comment

Oilers’ owner Daryl Katz recently released a letter to fans to express his disappointment in yet another losing season. Katz also took the time to express his support of the current management group who have taken a lot of criticism for the team’s awful performance.

The letter, available on the Edmonton Oiler’s website, has already received a very negative reaction, mainly because it lacks any substance. One part of the letter really stands out to me:

I know this will almost certainly be the eighth consecutive year since we made the playoffs. I hate that fact as much as anyone, but the reality is that this is only year four of the rebuild that started when we drafted Taylor Hall. The good news, if you can call it that, is that other teams that committed to fundamental rebuilds went through the same kind of droughts over the same kind of time frames, or longer. That doesn’t make it fun for anyone; it just means we have to stay the course.

Now a lot can made about Katz’s assertion that the re-build is in year four or that the course that they are on is a terrible one. But my main issue is the absolute loser tone the letter takes and how there doesn’t seem to be much urgency. It totally comes across as a message to the sponsors and the ticket holders rather than the entire fanbase. Maybe it’s just me, but as an owner you should demand a lot more, especially when you’ve missed the playoffs for eight straight seasons.

And just when the fans were reeling from this embarrassment, a nice article from The Copper and Blue provided some high level stats on the number of shots the Oilers have taken since 2006.

The Oilers have been outshot by 2,689 shots over than span. The next closest worst team, the Jets, are 1100 shots better – 2 per game – than the Oilers in 8 years. The best team in the league by this measure, the Red Wings, have been 6000 shots better, more than 10 per game, than the Oilers.

Fun times in Oil Country!

The Katz letter in a lovely word cloud:

Hockey Analytics and Me

January 20, 2014June 11, 2014 / sunilagni / Leave a comment

I’ve written extensively about the growth and development of hockey analytics over the past few years and continue to be encouraged by the growing number of people interested in the field. It’s a clear indication that fans are more than passive consumers of the game. They’re clearly engaged and what to apply their own ideas and thoughts to better understand the game.

Importance of Hockey Analytics – Hockey in Society
Assessing the State of Hockey Analytics – Hockey in Society
Challenges Facing the Hockey Analytics Community – Hockey in Society
Beyond the Stats: An interview with Rob Vollman – Hockey in Society

I’ve recently received a few inquiries about where to get certain stats and explanations of some of the more modern hockey stats available. I’m really no expert in the field, so I typically direct those inquiries to one of the many sites that provide insight into hockey analytics.

Advanced Stats Crash Course: Possession (Part 1) – FlamesNation
Frequently Asked Questions About Statistical Analysis in the NHL – Arctic Ice Hockey
Collision Corsi – Grantland

The great thing about hockey analytics (or advanced stats) is that it’s an entirely personal thing. Human beings all have unique needs when it comes to information collection and processing. We’ve all developed extensive biases and opinions about the game, that there is no statistic or collection of statistics that will appease everyone. With so much information available to fans, and the rapid development of technology, fans are forced to develop their own methods of processing information and can engage with stats as much or as little as they like.

For me personally, I’ve always liked looking into the stats of a game or of a player. I used to be obsessed with the stats on the back of hockey cards when I was a kid and always looked for basic level stats after a game was done. Growing up as an Oiler fan, you had to look for stats that somehow made your team look bearable. Aside from Doug Weight, there weren’t a lot of standouts in the late nineties, at least from my perspective. So you started to look deeper into stats trying to find something, anything, to give you hope as a fan.

The honest truth is I don’t delve too far deep into stats. The main statistic I’m interested in is shots, scoring chances and shot quality. During and after games, I typically check Twitter to follow a couple bloggers that track these stats.

If you look at the top teams, they get lots of high quality chances and they prevent the other team from getting high quality chances. Seems simple enough to me. Having said that, I’m always interested in seeing what stats are being discussed and developed online. A couple writers that get really deep into the stats with moderate theories, but also provide concise summaries are below, for those that are interested:

Outnumbered – SB Nation
mc79hockey
Understanding Advanced Stats – Arctic Ice Hockey

If there are additional websites or articles that provide a good introduction to hockey analytics, please comment below.

Dropping Dubnyk

January 17, 2014January 17, 2014 / sunilagni / 1 Comment

Source: The Oilers Rig

As expected, the Oilers shipped out goalie Devan Dubnyk. This season has not been his best, but Dubnyk did show a vast improvement from the start of the year. He’s an average to good NHL goalie that had to face a ton of shots playing behind a weak defensive team. A lot of the goals he allowed were magnified nightly mainly because the team did not have enough talent to get one back.

I’ve been a fan of his mainly because of the issues he had to deal with developing in the Oilers system. Keep in mind, when Dubnyk completed his junior career, the Oilers did not even have their own farm team. He was stuck scraping minutes on another club’s farm team, which is challenging as other goalies had higher priority for ice time.

Goaltending is one of those positions that I don’t value as highly as others. In my opinion, you need average goaltending behind a solid system and tactics to have success in the league. Goalies are just too difficult to predict. Far too often you hear stories about goalies almost coming out of nowhere to lead their team to success. An example would be Martin Jones in LA or Viktor Fasth in Anaheim. Both were relative unknowns who have put up some decent numbers playing on well structured teams.

Having said all that, I can appreciate MacTavish making a move that he thinks is best for the team. What I don’t understand is the return he got for Dubnyk. I think a couple other posts put it best: From The Copper and Blue:

Hendricks signed a four-year deal with the Predators as a free agent in July of last year; a deal that comes with an annual cap hit of $1.85M. Oh and he’s 32. In 44 games this season he’s scored two goals and added two assists. His 0.09 points/game this season is well of the areer best of 0.32 that he posted in 2010/11, but if you look at the years in between is probably the type of production that should be expected during his time with the Oilers. The fancy stats don’t put him in a much better light either. His Corsi% this season is 42.3%, lowest among Predators forwards. He has had tough zone starts though, second toughest on the team, but even when you account for that the results are not very good. All signs point to a players who belongs, more often than not, on the fourth line.

From mc79hockey:

It seems to me that there was an obvious alternative: send Dubnyk to Oklahoma City. Sure, it stinks for Dubnyk’s career given that he’s probably looking to drag his save percentage above .900 before he becomes a free agent but then Dubnyk’s career is not the Oilers’ problem. If faced with a choice between what’s best for Dubnyk’s career and what’s best for the Oilers, the decision is simple: do what’s best for the Oilers. The Oilers went another way. At the end of the year he goes. The Oilers get nothing in return but then nothing trumps negative something. There are Hendricks’ available for very little every summer who don’t need four year deals at $1.85MM. The Oilers just ate a ton of risk that Hendricks won’t be able to play in the NHL in a year or two for no apparent reason.

Considering the Oilers used a first round pick to select him and that they spent so much time developing him into a legitimate NHL goalie, it’s hard to understand what problem MacTavish was trying to solve with this trade.

Cutting Room

I find it interesting that MacTavish picked up Ben Scrivens, another goalie who spent time in the LA Kings goalie development system. MacTavish had high praise for Jonathan Quick recently and also pursued Jonathan Bernier in the offseason. Should also note that former Oilers goalie Billy Ranford is one of the goalie coaches in Los Angeles.

It’s getting quite tiresome to constantly hear the Oilers pursuing Alberta born players. Before acquiring Scrivens, who just happens to be from Spruce Grove, Cam Ward, a Sherwood Park resident playing in Carolina, was confirmed to be of interest to the Oilers,

Misleading Information Regarding Nail Yakupov

January 16, 2014January 19, 2014 / sunilagni / Leave a comment

Yakupov now -30. Worst season ever was Bill Mikkelson, -82 for Caps on 74/75.

— Reid Wilkins (@ReidWilkins) January 15, 2014

The host of the Oilers’ radio broadcast recently tweeted some misleading information regarding sophomore Nail Yakupov.

First off, the plus/minus stat is an extremely poor method of measuring a player’s performance. Yakupov, without a doubt, is struggling this year. With only nine goals, and eight assists so far, it’s clear he’s well off the pace he set last year. But tacking on a statistic that rewards and punishes players who may have nothing to do with the goal scored is just bad reporting. Other factors that can drive a player’s plus minus down include shoddy goaltending, unlucky bounces and empty net goals.

David Staples of Cult of Hockey put together a nice piece on why the plus/minus stat lacks credibility:

In a five year study — compiled through game in, game out video analysis of every goal scored for and against the Edmonton Oilers from 2008 to 2013 — it’s apparent that on goals for, about 70 per cent of the plus marks are correctly assigned to players who make some contribution, major or minor, to the goal. But 30 per cent of the plus marks are awarded to players who make little or no contribution at all to the goal being scored.

Wilkins’ tweet also comes after a game in which Yakupov, I thought, played pretty well. Against the Stars, Yakupov made some great plays, including a couple hits that lead to a nice scoring chance for the Oilers. He set up Gagner late in the game for a decent scoring chance as well.

Bruce McCurdy of Cult of Hockey provided this summary of Yakupov’s game. A lot of positives, but unfortunately they get overshadowed by misleading stats like plus/minus.

#64 Nail Yakupov, 5. Some good, some bad. Proactive without the puck, and was credited with 3 hits and 3 takeaways. Had one good sequence when he hit Sergei Gonchar on the end boards, stole the puck, walked out for a decent backhand shot, then when Gonchar recovered the rebound chased him down and hit him again. Made one nifty steal for an apparent chance only to bobble it away. Later broke his stick on an attempted one-timer of a nice Hemsky set-up. Made a soft pass to a covered Eberle which resulted in the jailbreak on the 2-1 goal that put the Stars ahead to stay. Wound up -2 after being out for the empty-netter as well, which put him at a frigid -30 on the year, by far the worst in the NHL.

I get that Yakupov is struggling, but let’s not suggest he’ll approach the record for worst plus/minus. Keep the reporting fair and put the right information into the right context.

UPDATED:

Reid was kind enough to clarify his comment and provide some context:

+/- can be misleading. Yak did have a decent game Tuesday. A couple of listeners asked if he could break the all-time record. I provided that stat. Never suggested he would approach the record. Rob and I discussed +/- on the call in show. I don’t feel I did any unfair reporting.

Thoughts on the Oilers: MacTavish on goaltending and coaching

January 14, 2014 / sunilagni / Leave a comment

Source: Calgary Sun

Oilers GM Craig MacTavish provided some insight into the state of the Oilers in a recent interview with David Staples of the Edmonton Journal. The interview is broken up into four parts, the first of which can be found over at the Cult of Hockey.

Regarding goaltending, MacTavish revealed his hopes that one of his netminders would provide a “spark”, similar to what Jonathan Quick provided the LA Kings.

Quick developed. And he gave them the spark. He was the guy that gave them the spark that ignited that team. The team still has trouble scoring goals but they really were challenged back that year and it was all based on defence and the play of Jonathan Quick.

I find this point interesting only because LA, even though they were on the verge of a breakout, had some decent defencemen in front of Quick. Not to say that Quick isn’t an elite goalie. But I’d like to see how he would do playing behind the current defence core of the Edmonton Oilers. This also explains why MacTavish was after Jonathan Bernier, who was the backup in Los Angeles and developed in the same system as Quick.

MacTavish also provided strong support for head coach Dallas Eakins.

And I would say, absolutely, yeah. I love the coach. To me, he’s done a lot. There’s been a lot of heavy lifting for him. We’re going to have continuity of coaching going forward, which is going to make a big difference going into next year. It’s the same coaching staff, the same messaging. You know how disruptive it is to change coaches. We’re going to have this continuity of coaching. For me, this guy has got the right balance of supporting the players and holding them accountable. There’s an accountability that like.

Even though Eakins is struggling this year, I think it’s critical that they maintain some consistency behind the bench. I think by the end of next year, if things don’t turn around, MacTavish may have to make a change.

I was pretty skeptical about the Oilers hiring MacTavish. The optics were just terrible as another former player was getting the job based on their alumni status rather than their professional credentials. But since his hiring, MacTavish has completely re-done the roster through some excellent, simple, trades and free agent signings. I really do think the team is heading in the right direction and feel a lot more confidence in him over Steve Tambellini.

Highly recommend the entire interview over at Cult of Hockey.

Recommended Links

Did Craig MacTavish Move Ladislav Smid to Calgary Just in Time? – OilersNation

Simple Concepts – The Copper and Blue

Thoughts on the Oilers: Veteran experience needed

January 6, 2014 / sunilagni / Leave a comment

Source: Edmonton Journal

It continues.

The Oilers lost, as expected, to two quality teams on the road recently, but got a win against the Lightning last night at home. Next up are three games against legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. Let’s hope they can squeeze out a win to keep things (somewhat) positive around here.

Veteran experience

The Oilers did an impressive job over the offseason acquiring much needed experience to the roster. Adding guys like Andrew Ference, Boyd Gordon and David Perron through free agency and trade to fill specific roles gave some hope that the team could compete this year. Had an additional piece been added to the defense and had all centremen been healthy, this team could have had a legitimate shot at competing for a wild card spot in the West.

Unfortunately, this team is struggling and desperately needs some experience in the line up, even if it means moving out the younger prospects.

On top of all of the losing, fans have also placed a ridiculous amount of hope and expectations on young players. It’s so easy to do since we don’t know much about these prospects and let our imaginations and expectations trump reality. And it’s too easy to dismiss veteran players because their experience and performance is well documented, leaving it easy to judge and come to conclusions.

Hemsky

With the Olympic rosters about to be announced, Ales Hemsky was asked about his chances of making the Czech Republic roster. The Edmonton Journal article, with a very misleading headline, really emphasizes how Hemsky’s role has changed, which I think is great news for the Oilers.

“I have a different role on this team now,” Hemsky said before the Oilers were defeated by a combined score of 10-3 by the San Jose Sharks and the Anaheim Ducks. “I’m playing a different role than I have before so I don’t have as many points as I’d like, and I’m playing a different style, and that’s fine, but it may affect what they think.”

Update: Hemsky Named to Czech Olympic Team – Lowetide

Regardless of the speculation, it would make no sense at this point to deal him for prospects. The Oilers need actual NHL players rather than potential players at this point. If moving him is part of a deal to land a defenceman or experience in the top lines, there should be no hesitation. But removing NHL players from a team desperate for NHL wins makes absolutely no sense.

Recommended Links

Re-sign Ryan Smyth? That’s a no brainer. – The Copper and Blue

Mambo Cogliano: Ducks forward signs four year extension – Puck Daddy

Thoughts on the Oilers: Progress; Heavy Teams; Yakupov Struggling; Omark vs Schremp; International Hockey

January 2, 2014January 3, 2014 / sunilagni / Leave a comment

Source: Edmonton Oilers

The month of December has thankfully come to an end for the Oilers. The Oilers won five games out of 15, and went on a six-game losing streak. Taylor Hall has been the lone bright spot on the team, driving the offence. Unfortunately, the team defense continues to weigh down the club.

It’s been a long season, but I think it’s been a vast improvement from last year. There are obviously some major issues, but the team itself is in the first year of it’s second rebuild. A new GM, a new coach and new tactics have to be given some time to see progress. MacTavish has made a ton of moves since coming in and appears to be active in acquiring much needed help. And before critiquing MacTavish, consider the absolute mess that Tambellini left behind.

Heavy Teams

Anytime the Oilers play the likes of St. Louis, Los Angeles or Boston, the discussion of “heavy teams” pops up. It’s a common misconception that size alone can boost a team’s success. The only time size plays an actual role in game outcomes is when it’s used effectively to protect the puck. Possession is critical for success, and size CAN play a factor. But all too often, we see average sized players protect the puck well. Players from a very young age are taught proper skating and body positioning to protect the puck and regain possession. So why size is always trumpeted as the key to success doesn’t make sense to me.

Yakupov Struggling

It’s tough watching the young Russian spend more time on the bench, and recently the pressbox. The guy has a lot of offensive talent, but unfortunately his defensive game is still a work in progress. Why teams think they can develop guy in the major leagues is beyond me. Eighteen year olds, unless they have some exceptional talent like Ovechkin and Crosby, should spend at least 50 games in the minor leagues before making the jump. A well developed minor league system can develop a player properly and give them time to adjust to the pace of the NHL

As for Yak, it would be easy to suggest that he be sent to the minors. But at this point, considering he had some success last season, it would be beneficial to give him real NHL linemates that can cover for him defensively, rather than pairing him with enforcers.

Omark vs Schremp

I took some heat last week for suggesting that Omark should not be compared to former Oiler Rob Schremp. I just don’t recall Schremp being anything more than a one-dimensional player, whereas Omark has received significant praise for his all-round game.

Wasting Linus Omark – The Copper and Blue

Schremp’s advanced stats aren’t available, so judging by his boxcar stats alone, nothing stands out. Schremp also had a lot of negative reviews from scouts even before joining the Oilers and has since been a marginal hockey player.

AHL Prospect Rankings: #8 Rob Schremp – OilersNation

International Hockey

I’m not a follower of junior hockey, but I do keep tabs on which European teams are making progress. It’s a good sign when more countries are improving year to year, as I think the game overall needs to evolve. Hockey will always be limited to a small number of countries, but the more nations involved, the more ideas and tactics can be introduced.

Recommended Links

The State of the Edmonton Oilers: It’s bad but not as bad as it looks – Cult of Hockey

Advanced Stats Crash Course: Possession (Part 1) – FlamesNation

Man of Action – OilersNation

A Look Back at the Oilers 2013 – The Copper and Blue

The SuperFan

By Sunil Agnihotri

Author: sunilagni

Scrivens

Alumni Council Meeting – Alumni Pride Chapter, Research at UAlberta, Volunteer Events

Thoughts on the Oilers: Rock Bottom

Hockey Analytics and Me

Dropping Dubnyk

Misleading Information Regarding Nail Yakupov

Thoughts on the Oilers: MacTavish on goaltending and coaching

Thoughts on the Oilers: Veteran experience needed

Thoughts on the Oilers: Progress; Heavy Teams; Yakupov Struggling; Omark vs Schremp; International Hockey

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