The Edmonton Oilers are heading into the playoffs in not-so-great shape.

Over the final twenty-five games of the season (so since around late February), the Oilers had a record of 14-10-1, a points percentage of 0.580 that ranked 14^th in the league. Their even-strength (5v5) goal-share of 43 percent (43 goals for, 57 goals against) ranked 27^th in the league, only ahead of New Jersey, San Jose, Chicago, Nashville, and Minnesota.

Injuries were obviously an issue and played a role in the team’s shooting percentage, which ranked 30^th during this period, and save percentage, which ranked 27^th. But it’s important to note that even before this final stretch the Oilers weren’t too great in either of those categories as they were below league average pretty much all season. And because of this, the Oilers are heading into the playoffs with one of the worst goal differentials at even-strength (-3) among playoff teams.

The good news is that despite the injuries, the Oilers posted decent shot-share numbers with their Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals for percentage ranking higher up in the league. So, there’s reasons to believe that their goal-share could improve. But it’s important to note that their shot-share numbers were largely star driven, as the team could only post a 48 percent Corsi For percentage and a 46 percent Expected Goals for percentage when McDavid and Draisaitl were not on the ice. So it’s hard to have confidence in the depth players being real drivers at evens. Should note here that that I excluded the games when the glimmer twins were not in the lineup.

The other major issue heading into the playoffs is the Oilers goaltending, which has been inconsistent all season and below league average levels. And it’s where the Kings have a significant edge.

Among the 62 goalies who played at least 1000 minutes this season, or at about 20 games (all situations), Darcy Kuemper ranked fourth overall in terms of save percentage (0.921) and goals-saved above average (GSAA, +26.76), only behind Connor Hellebuyck and Andrei Vasilevskiy. Stuart Skinner on the other hand ranked 39^th with a 0.897 save percentage and 42^nd with a GSAA of -4.44. Among the true regular goalies (ones who played at least 50 games this year) Skinner ranks near the bottom of the list. And for those wondering, Pickard ranks 24^th in terms of save percentage (in the list of 62 goalies) and 26^th in GSAA.

Should note that both Los Angeles and Edmonton were very good at limiting shots and chances against at even-strength and the penalty kill this season. One team had goaltending and had a shot at the division title. The other one had Stuart Skinner. It’s a major weak spot for the roster, and a position that Oilers management chose not to address last off-season or at the trade deadline.

Data: Natural Stat Trick