After a really nice stretch of success on the penalty kill, which I had just wrote about recently, things have really taken a turn for the Edmonton Oilers since the NHL All-Star break.
A big reason for the Oilers penalty kill success in the first 45 games of the season was their ability to suppress shot attempts and shots on goal. They allowed the third-lowest rate of unblocked shot attempts (66.83 per hour) and the sixth-lowest rate of shots against (48.58 per hour). And the shots that did get through were stopped 87.32 percent of the time, which was right around league average.
But in the ten games since the All-Star break, the rate of shots and chances against has increased significantly. For instance, the rate of shots on goal has increased by 36.1 percent, going from 48.58 per hour to 66.10 per hour. And what’s made things worse is that the goaltending isn’t nearly as good as it was earlier in the season, with the team save percentage dropping by 10.9 percent, so the skaters aren’t getting bailed out when mistakes are happening.
The Edmonton Oilers powerplay continues to be near the top of the National Hockey League when it comes to scoring efficiency, ranking second in the league only behind Tampa Bay with 11.14 goals per hour. This is largely driven by their high-end talent who help generate the fifth highest rate of unblocked shot attempts (91.49 per hour) and the second highest rate of actual shots on goal (66.83 per hour). And their team shooting percentage sits at 16.67 percent. The Oilers actual results this season are right in line with where they’ve been over the last three seasons where they’ve posted 11.28 goals per hour between 2020/21 and 2022/23, which translates to a 17.40 percent shooting percentage.
What’s worth noting is that while the results over the full season have been excellent so far, the team’s productivity has slipped slightly over the course of the season. If we split the current 52-game season in half, we see that the finishing ability of the powerplay is down a few percentage points going from 19.08% in the first 26 games, to 14.05% in the most recent 26 games. This has resulted in the goals scoring rate dropping from 12.17 goals per hour in the first half of the season to 9.90 goals per hour in the second half.
It might feel like things are worse than they actually are based on the couple games where the powerplay didn’t score and how players are reacting on the bench shortly afterwards. But the team is still generating plenty of chances, actually seeing a 10.5 percent increase in their rate of shots when comparing the two segments. And they’re still in the range of the shooting percentage we can reasonably expect them to be at (17.40 percent). My guess is that over the last 30 games of the season, we’ll see their shooting percentage bounce back up to where it should be, and things should be calmer.
The reality is that the Oilers have set very lofty standards for their powerplay, and there’s a lot of pressure that’s been built up because of the team’s inability to win titles with such high-end talent on the roster. The powerplay is a massive weapon for the Oilers and it appears the coaching staff is doing everything they can to maximize its output. Over the last 26 games, the first powerplay unit (using Evan Bouchard as the proxy) has played 80.6 percent of the team’s powerplay time – an increase of 6.60 percentage points from the first 26 games of the season where they played 74.0 percent of the total time The first powerplay has responded well to the additional responsibility, generating even more shots in the more recent stretch of games. Their rate of shots on goal has increased by 19.0% from the first 26 games of the season, going from 64.81 shots per hour to 77.15 per hour. So it should be a matter of time before the powerplay heats up again.
With the Oilers needing to address their depth scoring up front, I reviewed David Perron’s performance and production numbers to see if he could be an acquisition option. Long time fan of his game (and his white skates), but unfortunately it looks like his play has declined.
Perron’s inability to finish chances and his drop in personal production could be blamed on the fact that he’s playing further down the lineup with lesser-skilled linemates. But his poor production is also due to the fact that the Red Wings often spend more time without the puck and in their own zone whenever Perron is on the ice. Again, this is something Perron used to excel at over his career as he often helped drive his team’s ability to out-shoot and out-chance opponents. But it appears the forward has lost a step this season as his relative-t0-team numbers have been in the negatives, indicating that he may be a drag to his team instead of a driver like he used to be.
Remarkable results for the Edmonton Oilers, posting 16 straight wins over a 37 day stretch between December 21, 2023 and January 27, 2024.
The Oilers outscored opponents 43-20, a 68.25 percent goals-for percentage, at even-strength (5v5). A big reason for their results was their ability to control the flow of play and generate scoring chances consistently. They posted a Corsi For percentage of 55.91 percent and Expected Goals For percentage of 57.31 percent.
The Oilers team save percentage was 94.01 percent, third highest in the league. In all situations, the Oilers had the best save percentage in the league with 94.56 percent.
The Oilers powerplay scored 11 goals, a rate of 10.68 goals per hour that ranked fifth in the league for this time period. Their rate of shots (69.92 per hour) and unblocked shot attempts (94.20 per hour) ranked fourth and fifth in the league, respectively. Their powerplay shooting percentage was 15.28 percent and ranked 14th in the league.
The Oilers penalty kill only allowed 3 goals, a rate of 2.18 goals against per hour – the lowest in the league. They allowed the second-lowest rate of unblocked shot attempts (62.63 per hour) and the fourth lowest rate of shots against (45.88 per hour). I did a deeper dive on the Oilers penalty kill recently for Oilersnation.
The Oilers dominance was really driven by their top six group, featuring McDavid and Draisaitl. With either of them or both on the ice, the Oilers were at another level, spending a lot of time with the puck and in the opponents zone – which led to a lot of scoring chances.
The share of expected goals, which factors in shot quality, took a massive jump during this winning streak with McDavid on the ice, as his line with Hyman and RNH has been dominant for a few months now. Draisaitl posted excellent numbers as well, especially with McLeod and Foegele. Not much to complain about how the top six has performed.
The bottom six group had some issues at even-strength. While they did post a positive goal differential, it appears a lot of their success was dependent on the goaltending. Without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, so 333 minutes which equates to about 42% of the team’s total time spent at even-strength, the Oilers posted a Corsi For percentage of only 50 percent and an expected goals for percentage of 47 percent. That’s well below their team levels this season, and makes you wonder if this bottom six is up for the task when playoffs roll around.
Below is a high-level snapshot of how each player’s on-ice numbers were at even-strength (5v5) during the 16-game winning streak, split between forwards and defencemen and sorted by total ice-time. Included are the metrics I use to assess a player’s performance (i.e., shots and expected goals) as well as their actual on-ice results (i.e., goal differential). I’ve also included each player’s PDO, which assesses how lucky/unlucky they’ve been, and if we can expect their results to improve over the course of the season. A basic heat map has been applied to show how each player compares to the rest of their squad.
Interesting to see that Kane only broke even in terms of on-ice goal differential during this 16-game winning streak. Even Brown was +2. Considering how much time Kane got to spend in the top six, especially after publicly complaining about his ice time, you’d expect his numbers to be a little stronger. And somehow Derek Ryan posted a -2 goal differential. On the back end, it was really that top pairing of Bouchard and Ekholm that helped drive results. Should be interesting to see how the Oilers address their issues among the depth forwards up front and on the right side of their defensive group.
With the Edmonton Oiler’s penalty kill posting excellent results, I thought it would be worth digging into the underlying performance numbers to see if the results are sustainable. And which individual players have been the drivers this season.
The Mattias Ekholm and Vincent Desharnais tandem on the blue line has been very good together, posting a rate of 33.45 shot attempts against per hour in 65 minutes together this season. Among 34 defence pairings who have played at least an hour together on the penalty kill, they rank first in terms of shots and unblocked shot attempts against. The average rate of shots against among these 34 defence pairings is 56.89 per hour, so they’re well below that level.
It is worth noting, too, that while the Oilers see an increase in shots and chances against Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci on the ice together, their actual rate of shots and chances are still just under league-average levels. That’s pretty solid considering they’re often playing against the other team’s top powerplay units. The tandem has played 101 minutes together on the penalty kill, which ranks 12th highest in the league.
Looking at the forwards, you can tell who’s been playing more often on the second penalty kill unit with the Ekholm/Desharnais tandem based on the green boxes. Connor Brown, for example, has posted excellent numbers and is a big reason why the Oilers have done a nice job suppressing chances. He’s been much maligned this season due to his poor play at even strength, which has led to demotions in the lineup and some time in the press box. But there’s no denying his contributions to the second unit. After his signing last summer, I had looked into his penalty kill numbers which were fine overall, but took a bit of a hit whenever he’d play on the top units in Ottawa and Toronto. Nice to see that the coaching staff recognized his strengths and weaknesses and put him in a position to succeed.
The SuperFan 