Assessing Chiarelli

DCziAf2UIAEP6sH.jpg

Something that I’ve been thinking about this off-season is how to best assess the work that’s been done and being done by Oilers general manager Peter Chiarelli. It’s been a fairly low-event summer, and considering the success the Oilers had in 2016/17, it’s a little surprising to me that the management team has thus far taken such a passive approach.

Now the signings of Jussi Jokinen and Yohann Auvitu are nice bets and address the Oilers’ depth issues, and its reasonable to think they could contribute next season. The acquisition of Strome, I’m not so sure about. He’s a depth winger at this point with lots to prove and has a chance to do well. I just haven’t seen anything in his numbers that indicates he can be a difference maker. And losing Eberle, arguably for financial reasons, only makes sense if they re-allocated those dollars towards an asset that could make a significant impact. Instead, it looks like the money saved was to (over)pay Russell, an okay depth defenceman, but one who’s likely past his prime and often drags down his team’s offence. How these trades and signings impact the team’s ability to win games remains to be seen.

In the end, we need to assess Chiarelli’s work, the easiest way being to look at the team’s win totals and goal-share.

Season Record Points Goal-share (5v5) Shot-share (5v5) Save% (5v5)
2015/16 31-43-8 70 44.66 48.81 91.44
2016/17 47-26-9 103 54.25 49.99 92.72

Nice jump from last season. But the problem I see with this type of assessment is that both of his seasons were impacted by things largely out of his control. The Oilers dealt with major injury issues, losing both McDavid and Klefbom for extended periods in his first season, and their goaltending was one of the worst in the league. And Chiarelli got a bit of a free pass as it was his first year and there was plenty of players on the roster that were from the previous regime. And in Chiarelli’s second season as Oilers GM, Talbot and McDavid were outstanding, and the defence core, lead by Klefbom and Sekera, was able to stay healthy. So really, how much credit can you give the general manager for the success and failures?

The other factor to consider is McDavid, arguably the best player in the world and the driving force behind the Oilers 103 point season. With him on the ice, the Oilers had a +30 goal differential at even-strength, a 62.1% goal-share. The shots and scoring chances took a massive jump thanks to McDavid, and his impact was evident when looking at his teammates production with him and without him.

In my opinion, the best way to measure Chiarelli as a general manager is by looking at the team’s results when McDavid isn’t on the ice.

McDavid is going to make things happen and we can fully expect the goal-share and shot-share to be well above 50% with him on the ice. There’s no development time needed, no extra coaching or helping him find his niche. He’s a superstar today and for the foreseeable future. What management has to do now is fill out the rest of the roster and ensure that when McDavid is on the bench, the team gets more than half of the even-strength goals, and more than half of the even-strength shots. Teams that reach the finals often  had strong support around their best players in the regular season, and it’s going to be critical for the Oilers to do the same.

Last season, without McDavid, the Oilers had a -4 goal differential at even-strength (a goal-share of 48%), and a shot-share of 47%. And it’s worth noting that the shot-share dipped down to 45% at certain points and only gradually improved. This is why I’m not feeling too great about the Oilers moves this summer. Eberle and Pouliot, for instance, were one of the few players that posted good shot-shares away from McDavid. And while Jokinen could give a boost to the tough minutes line with Nugent-Hopkins, I’m skeptical that his play will have a massive impact on the team’s shot and goal-shares. In my mind, he’s the new Pouliot, so if anything, at best the team made more of a lateral move.

At this point, the best-case scenario is that Draisailt emerges as a scoring threat as a second-line center and Benning takes another step forward and helps create more offence. The team would also have to hope that one of their younger forwards like Puljujaarvi or Strome or even Yamamoto solidify a spot on the roster and capitalize on more opportunities. I just don’t know if it’s wise to bank on so many what-ifs when the time to contend for a championship is now. And considering the cap crunch the Oilers will be in after this season having to pay McDavid and Draisaitl, you’d think management would be all in in 2017/18.

Chiarelli also has to ensure that no one on the team is dragging down McDavid’s offensive production. There’s no reason why the offence should get stalled when McDavid is on the ice, and it’s critical that the right players are deployed with him. This is also a big reason why I dislike the Russell signing. The only time the team’s goal scoring rate went down with McDavid was on the ice last season was when Russell was on the ice with him. This should have been a red flag, but management chose to ignore it instead.

While team results will be important, it’s the results without McDavid and the process upon which key decisions are made that will define Chiarelli’s tenure as the Oilers general manager. How he builds a winner around an elite talent will be a critical piece of the championship puzzle. So far, management hasn’t done enough to help the team generate offence, and it remains to be seen if the smaller bets they’ve made and the young players they have can help push the needle this upcoming season.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Advertisements

5 thoughts on “Assessing Chiarelli

  1. Nice analysis! Agree completely. Too bad most people go by feel or eye test. They will not understand or believe what you’re saying. Tough being an Oilers fan sometimes.

  2. Very well argued! It’s hard to make sound points to fans who want to carry Chiarelli on their shoulders for last season. When someone says the Chiarelli was fleeced in the Hall for Larsson trade many fans say BS! the team got better. Yes, the team got better because it was it was so lacking on RD. If you’re thirsty you might pay $1000 for a case of water, but that doesn’t mean you didn’t get fleeced. What’s amazing is that the Oilers were so rich in forward they could afford to pay Hall. Better would have been Eberle for Gudbranson, given that Florida took less than Eberle. And then there’s not having Barzal and Carlo. Ugh! Finally, you’d think that a real pro would have figured out how to reclaim/rebolster Schultz, who has turned out better than Shattenkirk. I mean two F’ing cups for Schultz — and he played major minutes for the Pens. For me the best things Chiarelli has done are McLellan, Talbot, and taking risks on Maroon, Kassian, Caggiula, and Benning. He overspent and overtermed on Lucic, Sekera, and Russell.

  3. Missing from your article was a few key reasons the Oilers got better last year. The defence was made solid and stopped the bleeding because of the addition of Adam Larsson. Everyome always forget howuch the team meeded a calming 2-4 dman. MASSIVE EFFECT Also Lucic helped serve a deterrrent to keep the players healthy that got taken advantage of last year.

  4. Article is amateurish when discussing the success of a gm or lack of. Chia has done a pretty good job so far. You can credit certain players all you want but when a team has no identity for yrs, no chemistry, no backing each other, I’m sorry but Connor mcd has very little to do with that. That was created by coaching staff and multiple fresh new faces as leaders in the room. Identity has been created, there’s chemistry and team toughness. All important, unmeasurable by number factors that was formed with new management team which is the biggest reason for improvement. It didn’t stop there either. Complete overhaul of team philosophies and staff changes throughout org, pro and minor. Filled holes with college and university players that performed very well on a team that had zero depth in multiple places. If you follow the team closely then all these things should be accounted for unless we are forgetting how bad things were in edm for yrs. I’ll leave drafting out because to early to tell for chia regime but I do think that will prove to be better also. Looking at the whole picture, comparing what he started with to what he’s building throughout org now, I’d say it’s a passing grade for sure.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s