Ranking the Top 25 Under 25

11189242Enjoyed my opportunity to contribute to the Copper & Blue’s Top 25 Under 25 series this summer. I, along with nine other contributors, ranked each Oilers prospect and did short write-ups summarizing each player’s development and what we can expect from them going forward.

I’ve been a long time fan of the series and find myself often searching through older articles when writing about player development. The interesting part for me was learning about my own biases and what I look for in prospects. Basically, if you’re a center or a defenceman or played in OKC last season, you’re gold in my books. If you’re a goalie or were just drafted in the last two years, I don’t care much for you. I was confident with my top 12 players. The rest were changed around so many times, I lost track.

Here are the pieces I contributed:

David Musil Misses the Cut – I put together a short defence piece on the young rear-guard, who I thought should’ve been in the top 25.

Jujhar Khaira (#22) – I’m really pulling for this guy, but he hasn’t progressed as well as we’d like. Hopefully he has a healthy season and can snag some more ice-time in Bakersfield.

Jordan Oesterle (#11) – The C&B crew really likes him, which will mean he gets dealt for nothing just as he becomes a full-time NHLer.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (#2) – The young pivot tied for second with Taylor Hall. I think very highly of both players, but value centers a lot more. Advantage: RNH.

All articles pertaining to the Top 25 Under 25 series can be found here.

Thoughts on the Oilers: Training Camp and Final Roster

11189242This season can’t start soon enough. We’ve spent so much time speculating on line combinations, player acquisitions and realistic expectations this summer. I think most of us are ready for some meaningful hockey.

Aside from the addition of Connor McDavid, I think the best thing going for the Oilers is the coaching staff. McLellan has really taken control of the team, and I really do think the club will push for wins rather than continuous development. Part of this is also the new GM and the franchise’s renewed commitment to success. As much as we harp on Eakins, Nelson and even Kreuger, I think it was obvious that management (and ownership) was more focussed on development rather than actual wins.

The only reason I like following the annual training camp is to see which player will get the most written about them. This year, it’s been Anton Slepyshev, who really has impressed over the past few weeks. I’m not convinced that he’ll be a full time NHL player this coming season, but I don’t think he’s far off either. Last season, Jujhar Khaira, Bogdan Yakimov and Vladimir Tkachev got a lot of attention. The first two didn’t do a whole lot in this year’s training camp, while Tkachev went undrafted.

The key thing to remember is that training camp really is for the “Group A” guys to get going and for the “Group B” guys to demonstrate they haven’t regressed in any way. If I’m management, I need the AHL bound players to show well in camp and give some assurance that the development system is working. Very rarely do we see someone make the team out of training camp, and when they do, they don’t seem to last long and remain as a fringe player. Patrick Thoresen and Lennart Petrell come to mind.

The roster is starting to take shape now that a number of players have been shipped out. Here’s my guess for the opening night:

Hall McDavid Purcell
Pouliot RNH Eberle
Draisaitl Lander Yakupov
Korpikoski Letestu Hendricks

I’d much rather see Draisaitl start and finish in Bakersfield this coming season, but he appears to be in McLellan’s plans. If he stays, my concern is that he’ll be developed somewhat on-the-fly as a center, whereas a stint in the AHL would be beneficial for his development. He’s been outstanding over the past few weeks, and will likely be used the same way Pavelski was in San Jose: paired with another center but taking faceoffs in specific situations.

And the uhh…defence:

Sekera Fayne
Klefbom Schultz
Reinhart Nikitin

Not good enough in my opinion. What’s frustrating is that there were options this summer, but instead Chiarelli shipped out Marincin, overpaid for Reinhart and brought in Gryba. Things might be okay if Schultz and Nikitin bounce back, but the club is taking a risk with this group. It’ll be interesting to see how McLellan matches his defence pairings with the forward line and which 5-man units get favorable zone starts.

Talking Oilers Training Camp Cuts, Anton Slepyshev and Trading Defencemen on The Lowdown with Lowetide

Joined Lowetide this morning to talk Oilers and the latest news from training camp. Full audio below.

Couple of notes:

  • Here’s how the line-up is shaping up after the latest round of cuts (lifted from LT). I think we can expect Simpson, Gernat, Pakarinen and Moroz to get sent down once they come off the injured list. Likely by the end of the week.

early-oilers

  • How the Oilers handle Slepyshev will depend on Purcell’s injury. This might be a huge break for the young forward, but it’ll probably be in his best interest to develop in the AHL first.
  • If the Oilers go with Nilsson, Scrivens should either be dealt for a pick/“future considerations” or start as the backup in Bakersfield (likely the latter). I’d prefer having Brossoit take the majority of minutes in Bakersfield and continue his development.
  • I cannot see how trading away Nikitin would help the Oilers at this point unless there’s a defenceman coming back the other way. I think it’d be smarter to see how he does in McLellan’s system (that tends to get more shot attempts from the defence) before attempting to deal him away. I think we’ll see a higher proportion of shot attempts from the defence this coming season, and Nikitin probably has the most potential to contribute among the bottom 4.

Talking Klefbom contract, Defence pairings and Anders Nilsson on The Lowdown with Lowetide

Joined Lowetide this morning to discuss Oscar Klefbom’s contract, the Oilers defence pairings in training camp and the odds of Anders Nilsson making the team. Full interview is below.

Couple of notes:

The Klefbom signing involves risk, but it’s a smart, calculated bet that I think will pay off for both sides. Couple of articles that sum it up very nicely:

The defence is already starting to shape up but it’s still weak, in my opinion. Lots of question marks (Ference, Nikitin) and I think the players that the team invested in will get a longer leash than others. I definitely see Reinhart in the mix, with Ference potentially being in and out of the lineup. Couple of articles I wrote recently that looked at how McLellan paired players and how he handled offensive defencemen.

I think Anders Nilsson definitely has a shot at making the Oilers opening night roster. Goalies really are readily available, are have the ability to provide good to average goaltending. It also wouldn’t suprise me if Scrivens bounces back. Couple articles worth a read:

Always enjoy being on Al’s show. I just need to sharpen up my AHL geography and I’ll be good to go this season. 😉

Potential Defensive Pairings

With training camp kicking off, it’ll be interesting to see how the defence pairings shape up for the coming season. The defence remains a weakness as the club is placing a lot of faith in young players like Oscar Klefbom andJustin Schultz, as well as veterans like Andrew Ference and Nikita Nikitin, who are aiming for a better performance compared to last season.

With Peter Chiarelli moving into the GM role, there were expectations that the defence core would be overhauled and improved by acquiring legitimate NHL players. The addition of Andrej Sekera is huge for the Oilers, but the rest of the acquisitions are largely unproven assets that have to earn a spot on the opening night roster.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Unlocking the Offensive Defenceman

Justin Schultz will be a player to watch this upcoming season, as he works to become a legitimate top four defenceman for the Edmonton Oilers. The offensive talent is there, but he has yet to round out his game and be a reliable defenceman in his own zone.

The fact is over the past three seasons, Schultz has received a lot of ice-time and often started in the offensive zone. It makes sense: the team trailed a lot and Schultz was often the best offensive option on the Oilers blueline. It was also uncovered recently by Travis Yost that Schultz has had a very high percentage of his team’s high danger scoring chances (HDSC) that occurred when he was on the ice. (Source: War on Ice)

I decided to take it one step further and see what percentage of the high danger scoring chances happened when the score was close. This takes away score effects and gives us a better assessment of the player at even-strength. Here are the top 10 defencemen from last season. The average among defenceman who played at least 35 games was 2.89% in 2014/15.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Talking Oilers Management and Team Defence on The Lowdown with Lowetide

Joined Lowetide this morning on the radio to discuss Chiarelli’s comments to Bob McKenzie and some of the issues at defence. Definitely worth reading Lowetide’s summary of Chiarelli’s interview here and here.

Couple links worth checking out:

  • Jonathan WIllis has a great summary of the interview as well and highlights some of the comments from Chiarelli that pertains to Nurse and Draisaitl. [OilersNation]
  • Here’s the piece I wrote on Marek Zidlicky. Still think the Oilers need some experience up front before the season begins. [Copper & Blue]
  • I’ve spent some time looking at how the Sharks played under McLellan and some of the factors behind their success. My most recent piece looked at some of the coaching tactics and their “heavy hockey” style. [The SuperFan]

Sharks Under McLellan IV – Systems and Tactics

montreal-canadiens-v-san-jose-sharks1While digging through a lot of the data, I spent some time looking at game footage of the Sharks and came away with the same observation as most: holy sh*t, this team is good. Thankfully there are very bright minds who have taken the time to break it down system-wise and provide some great insight.

Unique Team Traits: When the Sharks enter the O-zone, there’s a good chance they’re getting a shot – The Score (October 3, 2014)

This first article is on shot generation and really how quickly the Sharks shoot once they make a zone entry. Justin Bourne and Thomas Drance do an outstanding job explaining some of the Sharks tactics and how they’re able to control the play.

They also posted a league best mark of .77 shots per controlled entry (the Rangers were second with a .75 shots per controlled entry mark, and only eight teams managed a rate of .7 or better) and were also the most efficient dump and chase team in hockey, managing .37 shots for per dump in (the Kings were second best with a .35 shots per dump in mark, and only nine teams managed a rate of .3 or better). Source

I found in my last post that the Oilers rely more on their forwards for shot attempts and scoring chances compared to the rest of the league. I think we’ll see the defencemen taking on a bigger role, not only getting more scoring chances, but also making more passes that lead to controlled zone entries. This is where Andrej Sekera is going to shine, as he’s proven to be that type of player in the past.

Examining the Sharks’ offensive-zone forecheck – Fear the Fin (March 17, 2014)

This next one is from Patrick D. of Fear the Fin, who looked at how the Sharks forechecked the opposition and the role each player played to support one another. A very aggressive style, but one that controlled the play along the boards.

The Sharks’ defensemen are very active in this forechecking system, pinching in anticipation of a pass up the boards. If the opposition makes a successful D-to-D pass, and then rim the puck past the Sharks F2, the playside D will pinch down sealing that puck off. F3 will be recovering towards center ice when he sees the play is going away from him, and if the defenseman pinches, F3 will replace him at the blueline. Source

The Sharks were very good at not only generating shot attempts, regardless of the score, but also blocking shots. That indicates to me that they they didn’t let the opposition set up plays as often as other teams, thanks in small part to their effective forecheck. What’s become obvious is how much pressure they apply to puck carriers and position themselves to take away the options when they don’t have the puck. I think this will be the most difficult tactic to implement for McLellan.

San Jose’s Neutral Zone Backside Pressure – Pension Plan Puppets (December 5, 2013).

Lastly, J.P. Nikota of Pension Plan Puppets looked at how the Sharks’ forwards apply backside pressure (different from backchecking!) and force the opposition into either dumping the puck or turning it over.

There are a number of issues at play here, including the San Jose forechecking strategy and the way they kept sticks in passing lanes in the offensive and neutral zones. As Carlyle pointed out, they lined a three or four guys up at their own blue line if they could to head off rushes. This forces a lot of dump-ins, which we all know isn’t the most effective way to generate scoring chances, especially if you’re the Leafs. But when the Leafs rushed from their own zone, San Jose forwards often had to chase them (i.e. apply backside pressure), and they did so very effectively. Source

This is going to be critical for the Oilers if they want to continue getting contributions from their defence. We know Schultz took a high percentage of the grade-A scoring chances when he was on the ice, but it always came at a cost. The Oilers faced a lot of two-on-ones the other way with Schultz caught up the ice, with very little help from the wingers. If McLellan has the forwards applying effective backside pressure in this type of situation, we might see fewer grade-A scoring chances coming the other way.

Thoughts

We know that Todd McLellan is an elite coach, but it’ll be interesting to see how he works and transforms the Oilers roster into a legitimate, dare I say, NHL team. I think we can expect him to employ some of the tactics he has used in the past, but without the skill and experienced roster he had in San Jose, he may need to make some adjustments. The good news is it sounds like McLellan wants to pare down the roster quickly, probably because the players will need time adopting the new system and the expectations that come with it.

If there are other articles that are worth checking out, let me know.

Sharks Under McLellan III – Contributions from Defencemen

Watching some of the Sharks games, I noticed how often the defenceman would make shot attempts. A lot of times, they would do a dump-in, and have  two forwards scrum to get the puck. Other times, the puck would be sent on goal, a rebound would come out, causing a lot of chaos and limiting their opponents ability to set up any sort of defensive scheme. It changed shift to shift, and was something to watch as they would often win battles along the boards and made smart, almost set, plays to lead to another shot attempt.

Just to confirm what I was seeing, I looked at what percentage of the Sharks shot attempts at even-strength were from defenceman and compared that to how the Oilers defenceman have done. My only issue here is Brent Burns who has played wing and defence over the past few years, so I can’t stand by the numbers 100%. In this post, I’ve considered him a defenceman, except in 2013/14 when he appears to have been on wing full time. The numbers might be slightly off, since I could not find exact dates for when he might have played defence or forward.

We know the Sharks have been a strong possession team under McLellan, typically out-shooting their opponents at even-strength. The Oilers have been the opposite, often trailing in games and still struggling to generate shot attempts.  Below we see that the Sharks defencemen generate a larger proportion of their teams shot attempts compared to the rest of the league, which kinda confirms what I’ve been seeing in their games (Source: War on Ice).

TM3-CF

There’s a drop in 2013/2014 for San Jose, which might be because I considered Burns a full time winger that season. Regardless, we can see the Sharks get a higher proportion of their total shot attempts from their defencemen than the Oilers. If you’re an Oilers defenceman heading into training camp, you have to be liking this. If McLellan can instill the same game plan he had in San Jose and have the team buy-in to the system, there’s a good chance defencemen will be more involved in the play. I don’t think the Sharks had any big shooters, instead relying on simple shots towards the net that could lead to additional higher quality scoring chances.

I decided to take it another step and see what proportion of the Sharks individual scoring chances came from defenceman when McLellan was head coach. Scoring chances are defined by War on Ice as:

  • In the low danger zone, unblocked rebounds and rush shots only.
  • In the medium danger zone, all unblocked shots.
  • In the high danger zone, all shot attempts (since blocked shots taken here may be more representative of more “wide-open nets”, though we don’t know this for sure.)

Below are the results.

TM3-SC

Again, the Sharks get a higher proportion from defencemen, which tells me that the Sharks not only got their defencemen shooting more often, but they often got set up to make an impact. You can see the Oilers scoring chances from the blueline has increased over the past three season. We’ll call this the Justin Schultz Effect.

We can take it even one-step further and see how often the Sharks defencemen got individual high danger scoring chances. Below are the results.

TM3-HSC

Justin Schultz has a lot of these, as demonstrated wonderfully by Travis Yost, which is why he’s often caught up-ice, leading to an odd-man rush against. But it looks like the Sharks didn’t hesitate getting their defencemen involved in these high probability scoring chances either. I’ll have to dig in a little more to see which players in San Jose got to be involved here (my guess is Dan Boyle, who played in San Jose from 2008-2013) and how successful they were at converting on their chances.

This should be encouraging to someone like Justin Schultz who would probably love to continue getting regular deployment and the  sweet zone starts . We can’t say for sure that McLellan will rely on his defenceman the same way he did in San Jose when it comes to shot attempts and scoring chances. But we can at least start to see where he had success and the type of players he relied on to be a strong regular season team.

Talking Oilers, Powerplay, Shooting Options and Defence on Lowdown with Lowetide

I joined Lowetide on Thursday morning to discuss the Oilers and some of their shooting options up front. Here’s a link to the audio. Worth checking out Lowetide’s article that frames the discussion first.

Couple notes:

  • It’ll be interesting to see how the team adapts to Todd McLellan, who knew how to generate shot attempts when he was with San Jose. If you’re interested, I’ve also begun looking at how often those shot attempts would get through and how good the team was at blocking shots. A bit of a work in progress, but any feedback is welcome.
  • Highly recommend reading Jonathan Willis’ article that looks at how McLellan ran the powerplay in San Jose.
  • My case for bringing back Shawn Horcoff can be found here: Part I, Part II, and, yes, Part III. I also looked at bringing in Mike Santorelli over at Copper & Blue. Oddly enough, the Anaheim Ducks picked up both players for cheap and solidified their bottom six. I still think the Oilers need a veteran centerman that can give guidance to the young wingers and move up the line up in case of injury.
  • I mentioned the passing data collected by Ryan Stimson from In Lou We Trust. I compiled the information on Oilers defenceman here, and included a chart on Andrej Sekera. He’s one of the best at making passes that lead to a controlled zone entry.
  • I really do think Nikita Nikitin can bounce back. More on that over at Copper & Blue.

Thanks again to Lowetide for having me on. Always enjoy chatting with him.