It’s been a bit of a roller coaster for the Edmonton Oilers in this series against the Vancouver Canucks. They’ve blown leads in one game, and then scored a winning goal in the final minutes of another. They’ve been completely outplayed one game and then bounced back with a dominant performance the next.

The good news for Edmonton is that there are reasons for optimism heading into game seven. They’ve controlled the flow of play at even-strength (5v5), generating a higher share of shots and scoring chance. The powerplay has been generating a lot of offence and producing at a good clip. And the goaltending appears to finally be stabilizing as their save percentage has been at league average (90%) or better the last three games.

Below is a summary of how the two teams have performed at even-strength after six games, and what their actual results have been. The Oilers hold the edge when it comes to shot-share metrics, posting a 58 percent Corsi For percentage and a 52 percent Expected Goals For percentage. This has them at the top among the other second round teams. Because both teams have had issues in net, the Canucks and Oilers rank first and second, respectively, among the second round teams when it comes to shooting percentage.

Special teams is where the Oilers have outperformed the Canucks as the powerplay continues to be excellent – generating a high rate of chances and scoring five times this series, which translates to a rate of 10.50 goals per hour. This is almost identical to their powerplay scoring rate during the regular season (10.53), which ranked second highest in the league. The Oilers penalty kill has also been excellent, allowing only three goals in six games – a goals against rate of 5.83 per hour. The good news is that their penalty kill results appear to be sustainable as the club has allowed only 21 shots against in six games, a rate of 40.78 per hour, which is one of the lowest among the second round teams.

Here’s a quick glance at how the Oilers skaters have done this series.

Good to see that Nurse and Ceci have been split up as the two have been posting terrible shot-share numbers together for quite some time. Nurse’s overall minutes at even-strength have been reduced, which I think has helped his performance numbers improve. It’s also interesting to see the negative impact Ceci is having on Kulak now.

Up front, there’s plenty of positives especially among the top two lines. They’re consistently out-shooting the Canucks and they should be due for some more 5v5 goals – especially Draisaitl. I do wonder if we’ll see McLeod break out of his scoring funk. The good news for him is that the Canucks struggle to generate shots and goals when he’s on the ice, so his value remains high.

I’d expect the Canucks to really leverage their last-change, and target the Oilers bottom two lines in game seven. Not a lot going on for the Oilers when McDavid or Draisaitl are on the bench as they’ve been outscored 4-2 in 134 minutes at even-strength without their two star players. The Oilers depth players are doing a good job outshooting the Canucks (52-44), but aren’t getting shots from dangerous areas – resulting in an on-ice shooting percentage of only 3.85 percent.

And here’s how the Canucks skaters have fared this series.

The top of their order is having a rough time, with Miller’s first line spending a lot of time against McDavid’s line and spending more time without the puck. Pettersson is the one bright spot among the forwards, and does appear to be gradually improving. He along with Hoglander are more noticeable, and could be the tandem to watch in game seven – especially with Boeser expected to be out of the lineup. Getting them away from the Oilers star players and against the Oilers depth players could be key.

Should be an interesting game seven.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

It’ll be interesting to see what the pace will be like in the upcoming second round series between the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks. The Oilers are coming off a five-game series against the Kings, where the two clubs posted some of the highest rate of shots and goals among the first round teams. And the Canucks are coming off a six-game series against the Predators where shots and goals were hard to come by. Considering the Canucks were consistently posting some of the highest rates of shots during the regular season, I’d expect their offensive game to bounce back, especially against an Oilers team that has some deficiencies and likely isn’t going to be blocking shots at the same rate the Predators were.

Related: High event hockey between the Oilers and Kings – The SuperFan (2024, April 29)

I don’t think it’ll be enough though to knock-off the Oilers who have a lot of firepower up front. The star players are healthy. Their powerplay is clicking. And the goaltending, while not great, has been good enough. What the Canucks can really take advantage of is the drop-off in shot-share numbers and results when McDavid isn’t on the ice at even-strength. In the six game series against the Kings, the Oilers outscored the Kings 6-3 with McDavid, but were outscored 6-9 without him. These poor results were largely driven by the fact that the Oilers spent a lot of time without the puck, posting a 41% Corsi For percentage and an Expected Goals For percentage of 43%.

Here’s how the Oilers skaters performed at even-strength against the Kings.

Up front, there’s a little concern with the second line, but Draisaitl tends to outperform his shot metrics in the playoffs. There’s still a risk that his results eventually take a hit, especially since he’s spending a lot of time without the puck. Nugent-Hopkins and Kane were also on the ice for a lot of shots against, and could be a target for the Canucks as they’ve struggled off and on during the regular season. Foegele had some poor results as well, and was gradually demoted as the series wore on, so it’ll be interesting to see if he bounces back. McLeod is going to be critical once again as he’s done really well playing against top competition and holding his own in terms of shot differentials.

The big area for concern is that Nurse-Ceci tandem, who played primarily with Draisaitl’s line. Expect to see the Canucks go after these two, especially on the forecheck to create turnovers. Also a little leery about the Canucks goaltending being the difference maker at even-strength. Silovs hasn’t played a lot during the regular season, and I would argue is better rested than Skinner. He was excellent against the Predators, and could easily go on a heater here.

And here’s how the Canucks skaters did at even-strength against the Predators in the first round.

Miller, Boeser and Hughes were the play drivers in that first round, and it’s interesting to see that Hughes actual results were lower than expected. The Canucks also got some good results from their depth players with Suter posting a +3 on ice goal differential. Pettersson is getting a lot of negative attention for his poor results, but if he’s healthy he should bounce back, along with Hoglander – his most common linemate in the first round. Both players finished the regular season with some of the best on-ice numbers among the Canucks forwards. The Canucks bottom pair defencemen appear to be the weak links – something the Oilers depth needs to take advantage of. I’m also not convinced about Zadorov, as he posted pretty poor on-ice numbers to close the regular season.

Here’s the Canucks skaters performed over the final twenty five games of the season.

Should be an interesting matchup. Plenty of skill among both teams and potential for a higher-paced series.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Related: Who has the special teams edge in round two between the Oilers and Canucks – The SuperFan (2024, May 5)