Before the season started, I put together some high-level targets that I thought the Oilers should aim for.  Things like possession, shooting percentage and save percentage (all at even-strength) served as preliminary, high-level metrics that could be further explored as needed. I used the performance of the Oilers’ division rivals from around the same time last year to come up with these targets and made minor adjustments accordingly.

First off, a quick look at how they did in the first month compared to the targets I established.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Right now the Pacific Division is pretty pathetic. Six of the top eight teams in the western conference are from the Central Division. When it comes to adjusted Corsi For%, only LA and San Jose are in the top eight in the west. The rest of the Pacific division teams have so far been below average when it comes to possession and goals.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

My colleague here at C&B Scott Reynolds put together an insightful post yesterday comparing previous teams that mustered 6-7 points in the first 10 games and had goal differentials similar to what the Oilers have this season. The good news, as Scott found, is that teams have bounced back from poor starts to at least compete for the playoffs. But before holding out hope for the 2015/16 Oilers, I decided to look into some of the high level performance metrics including possession, shooting percentage and save percentage (at even-strength) for these comparable teams in their first 10 game segments (Source: War on Ice).

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Todd McLellan was pretty furious following the game against the Capitals on Friday night, and for good reason. The club was outclassed by a better team at home, making far too many mistakes in the neutral zone and defensive end. The Oilers allowed 13 high danger scoring chances at even-strength, with all four even-strength goals against coming from that area.  That’s almost double the average number of shots that come from the high danger area in a game (thanks to rickithebear for that tidbit).

For reference, high danger scoring chances are the ones taken from the slot and low slot, as demonstrated below (Source: War on Ice).

You have to understand why McLellan may have been a little annoyed after the game and at the media availability on Saturday (Source: 630 CHED). Fact is, he’s had a history of getting a higher proportion of high danger chances in games and ensuring that the opposition is limited. He regularly finished in the top five league-wide when it came to the overall quanity of high danger shots and often had a high proportion of those shots. Here’s how he did compared to the rest of the league and, as always, I included Edmonton for fun.

Now it’s early in McLellan’s tenure as Oilers coach, but here’s a game-by-game look at the count of high danger scoring chances, for and against, at even-strength.

Why might the Oilers be struggling again? A lot of the poor defensive coverage, which was really exposed against Washington, comes down to the personnel on the roster. Oscar Klefbom and Justin Schultz were dreadful in that game, but so too were some of the forwards who didn’t do enough to prevent passes getting into the slot area. The Capitals consistently drew the Oilers in, or moved them out of position with strategic passing, creating numerous lanes to send the puck to the net.

If the Oilers intend on becoming an elite team, they need to employ qualified NHL players who can read and react to plays more efficiently. What they have right now is ot good enough. And until they bring in experience and skill to the back-end, this will be another development year.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Oilers head coach Todd McLellan made an interesting comment recently about putting shots on net, emphasizing volume shooting.

“Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone.”  –

Source

I can’t say I was surprised when he dismissed Corsi and Fenwick. He’s likely aware that those are good proxies for possession, but isn’t likely to disclose how much or how often he uses those types of metrics. But when he mentioned volume shooting, I wanted to see just how much shooting his team did when he was in San Jose and what exactly it translated to.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Enjoyed my opportunity to contribute to the Copper & Blue’s Top 25 Under 25 series this summer. I, along with nine other contributors, ranked each Oilers prospect and did short write-ups summarizing each player’s development and what we can expect from them going forward.

I’ve been a long time fan of the series and find myself often searching through older articles when writing about player development. The interesting part for me was learning about my own biases and what I look for in prospects. Basically, if you’re a center or a defenceman or played in OKC last season, you’re gold in my books. If you’re a goalie or were just drafted in the last two years, I don’t care much for you. I was confident with my top 12 players. The rest were changed around so many times, I lost track.

Here are the pieces I contributed:

David Musil Misses the Cut – I put together a short defence piece on the young rear-guard, who I thought should’ve been in the top 25.

Jujhar Khaira (#22) – I’m really pulling for this guy, but he hasn’t progressed as well as we’d like. Hopefully he has a healthy season and can snag some more ice-time in Bakersfield.

Jordan Oesterle (#11) – The C&B crew really likes him, which will mean he gets dealt for nothing just as he becomes a full-time NHLer.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (#2) – The young pivot tied for second with Taylor Hall. I think very highly of both players, but value centers a lot more. Advantage: RNH.

All articles pertaining to the Top 25 Under 25 series can be found here.