I joined Adrienne Pan on the CBC Edmonton News this evening for my weekly segment on the Oilers. Clip is here and starts at the 17:25 mark: CBC Edmonton News (2018, January 5).

Topics we covered:

• The shootout win against the Ducks, but really how little ground they’ve made in the standings.
• The acquisition of goaltender Al Montoya.
• The Oilers penalty kill and their inability to limit high-danger chances against.
• Leon Draisaitl and his struggles over the last few games.
• Upcoming five-game road trip and playoff chances. It’s not looking good.

Big thank you to the crew at CBC Edmonton for putting everything together.

 

I joined host Emily Fitzpatrick on the CBC Edmonton News on Thursday evening to talk Oilers and discuss the loss against the Winnipeg Jets. Clip is here and starts at the 13:45 mark: CBC Edmonton News (2017, December 28)

Couple notes:

• We spent some time on the shot metrics from Thursday night, and how much the Jets dominated. The Oilers really hung in there thanks to that lovely shorthanded goal and the stellar play of Cam Talbot. I thought the rest of the team was poor and they’ll need to be a lot sharper for Friday’s game against Chicago. Game stats presented were pulled from Natural Stat Trick.
• I also showed how each line did against the Jets, using the four centermen as proxy’s.
• Even though the team played poorly, the Oilers should continue running the three scoring lines. It’s been largely effective over the last 12-13 games, and one bad game shouldn’t derail the coaching staff’s strategy. I did a short write-up here last week.
• Something I found very concerning last season was how poorly the team fared when McDavid was not on the ice. So far this season it’s been a different story, largely because the talent is a little more evenly distributed across three lines.

• Without McDavid, the team has been above 50% when it comes to Corsi For%, and we should expect that to improve over time with Draisaitl and RNH’s line doing alright. What also stands out in the graph above is that when McDavid’s on-ice numbers slide below 50% (probably because of the illnesses he had), the team’s overall numbers remained respectable because of their depth.

I joined host Min Dhariwal on the CBC Edmonton News this evening before the game against the Blues. We talked about the Oilers recent success, the return of Andrej Sekera to the line-up and what to expect over the next week. Clip is here and starts around the 16:00 minute mark: CBC Edmonton News (2017, December 21)

Lots of optimism around the Oilers, and for good reason. They’ve just won three in a row, all in regulation, and have gone 8-4 in their last 12. Their goal differential at even-strength (5v5) has gradually improved, which is encouraging considering how poor they were only a few weeks ago.

Heading into tonight’s game against the Blues, the Oilers had a +9 goal differential in their last 10 at even-strength, and a 52.3% Corsi For%. So not only have the results been good, but they’re getting a higher share of the total shot attempts – an indication that their results are real.

What’s also encouraging is that the team’s share of shot attempts has gradually improved since the last time I checked in – a sign that their success is more likely sustainable.

So what’s going on?

I think it comes down to the Oilers (finally) assembling three lines that have talent spread throughout and some chemistry forming between players. McDavid and Draisaitl are very good together, but I think because the Oilers bottom six players were losing both the goal-share and shot-share, Draisaitl had to be a center on his own line. That started about 11 games ago, which is pretty much when we see the numbers (goals and shots) start to improve.

And because the goal-share is improving, I think the Oilers will stick with the three-line approach. Goal-metrics aren’t the best predictors of future goal-share, but I think it’s what the Oilers coaching staff and management group value the most. As long as they’re winning, I don’t expect much to change.

The good news is that the Oilers have three line combinations that are posting excellent possession numbers this season at even-strength (5v5):

• Lucic-McDavid-Puljujärvi – 57.1% (100 mins)
• Maroon-RNH-Cammalleri – 57.6% (73 mins)
• Khaira-Draisaitl-Strome – 54.1% (57 mins)

Important to not look at Draisaitl as a “third-line center”. He’s second on the team in average ice-time per game (18:42), behind McDavid (21:19) and right ahead of Nugent-Hopkins (17:42). The coaching staff has been able to get the three centermen plenty of ice time in various game-situations, and hasn’t been afraid to deploy any of them against top competition either.

Also worth noting that the three centermen rank 1-2-3 in total ice time per game for the Oilers and also rank 1-2-3 in point/60:

• McDavid – 2.76
• Draisaitl – 2.59
• Nugent-Hopkins – 2.38

The Oilers have a top-9 at this point, and if they stick with this strategy I expect them to continue having success. Playoffs, in my mind, are still a long shot. But if they can put together an extended winning streak, combined with another western conference team sliding, they could make it interesting.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Corsica Hockey

I joined Alicia Asquith on the CBC Edmonton News prior to the game against the Predators last night to discuss all things Oilers. Clip is here and starts around the 14:40 mark: CBC Edmonton News (2017, December 14).

We talked about the recent road trip, the defence core and how things might look once Larsson is back.

I joined Adrienne Pan on the CBC Edmonton News this evening to discuss all things Oilers. Clip is here and starts at the 19:10 mark: CBC Edmonton News (2017, December 7)

Topics we covered:

• The 4-2 loss against the Flyers and the recurring issues this season.
• Goaltending and what options the Oilers have. I also wrote a piece on the Oilers goaltending over at The Copper & Blue.
• The return of Brandon Davidson and how he can help the team.
• Upcoming games against the Leafs, Habs and Blue Jackets.
• The Pacific division

 

I joined Adrienne Pan on the CBC Edmonton News on Friday night to chat all things Oilers. Clip is here and starts around the 17:45 mark: CBC Edmonton News (2017, December 1)

Topics we covered:

• The loss against the Leafs. There was the blunder by Russell (still have no idea what he was doing there) but there were some positives.
• Special teams continues to be an issue.
• Oilers put Pakarinen on waivers and claim Nathan Walker from Washington.
• Goaltending.
• Chances of the Oilers making the playoffs.
• Upcoming games against Calgary and Philly.

I joined Adrienne Pan on the CBC Edmonton News on Thursday evening to talk all things Oilers. Clip is here and starts at the 18:50 mark: CBC Edmonton News (2017, November 9)

Topics we covered:

• The recent overtime win against the Islanders.
• The penalty kill, which I also covered recently over at The Copper & Blue.
• Cam Talbot’s performance.
• Playoff aspirations.
• Upcoming games against New Jersey, New York Rangers and Washington.

 

I joined Adrienne Pan on the CBC Edmonton News to discuss the loss against the Penguins, the overall issues and the upcoming games. Clip is here and starts around the 19:20 mark: CBC Edmonton News (2017, November 2)

Topics we covered:

• Special teams being the problem again, this time the penalty kill allowing two goals.
• Goaltending has improved over the last stretch of games.
• Potential trade options.
• Upcoming games at home against the Devils and Red Wings.