Incredible opportunity for the Edmonton Oilers heading into game seven of the championship finals against the Florida Panthers. It really could go either way, but it’s hard to imagine Edmonton losing with the star power they have up front, and the excellent results the team has posted since being down three games to none just ten days ago. Goaltending and depth scoring – often a spot of bother for the franchise – has been a major driver for the turn around. And it’s going to again be critical on Monday night.

The Oilers went from being outscored 7-3 at even-strength in the first three games of the series to outscoring the Panthers 10-5 in the next three games. A big reason for their success has been the contributions of their depth players. In the first three games, the Oilers didn’t have a lot going with McDavid on the ice, as the team barely outscored the Panthers 2-1. And without him, things were even worse as the club was outscored 1-6. But in the next three games, the depth scoring posted much better results as the team outscored Panthers 5-4. With McDavid on the ice, the Oilers excelled even more, outscoring the Panthers 5-1. The concern I would have is that the Panthers tend to control the flow of play and scoring chances when McDavid isn’t on the ice. So the team is running on a little luck.

The other driving factor has been goaltending. In the first three games, the Stuart Skinner posted an even-strength save percentage of only 88% – below league average and well below what Bobrovsky was posting (96%). But since then, Skinner has posted a much more respectable 91% save percentage, while the Panthers goaltending has posted a save percentage of 81%.

Below is a summary of how both teams have performed at even-strength over the six games, and what their results (i.e. goal differentials) have been like.

Worth noting that while the Florida Panthers have posted the better shot-share numbers, the Oilers have been much better when the score has been close. Of the 261 even-strength minutes played between these two teams, the score has been within one goal for 50% of the time. And in those minutes when the score has been within one goal, the Oilers have posted a Corsi For percentage of 49.73 percent and an Expected Goals for percentage of 50.92 percent. This is definitely a positive sign heading into game seven when we can expect the play to be tight and score to be close.

The one concern I would have is that while the results without McDavid have been better, the team is still spending a lot more time in their own zone. The Panthers tend to control the flow of play, and could potentially break out of their slump.

Whatever happens, it’s been an incredible season for the Edmonton Oilers. To be one win away from a championship is rare, and it reflects how strong the top players have been and the positive contributions from across the roster and at different games states. There’s of course some luck involved, and breaks along the way. But none of that gets inscribed on the cup.

Here’s to the journey, to the players who got the team here and the market that’s supported them along the way.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Even though the Oilers are down 3-1 in their series against the Florida Panthers, the Oilers are doing a lot of things right. And giving hope to a market that the series could go to seven games. Games are won and lost by the smallest of margins in the post-season, and it’s critical that the team maintain it’s performance at even-strength and the penalty kill.

Here’s how the two teams have compared at even-strength (5v5) over the first four games. The Oilers have outscored the Panthers 9-8 in this game state, which is about 71% of the total minutes. If you factor in the other even-strength game-states (3v3 and 4v4), the Panthers have a slight edge in goals (11-10). In all situations, each team has twelve goals, including a shorthanded goal for the Oilers. The results are pretty darn close, and indicates that the series should be tied. But that’s how playoff hockey goes.

While the Panthers have a slight edge when it comes to controlling the flow of play, the Oilers are doing a better job at creating scoring chances, as reflected by their Fenwick For percentage and Expected Goals For percentage. After getting a thrashing in game four in Edmonton, Bobrovky’s save percentage is now below 90.00 percent and barely better than Skinner’s. Bobrovsky played a lot of minutes during the regular season, similar to Skinner, so I do wonder if fatigue is setting in.

Below is an overview of how the Oilers and Panthers have performed this series at even-strength (5v5), as as well as their actual on-ice results.

The Oilers line featuring McDavid and Hyman continues to be a significant driver for the club, and should never really be counted out. The top defence pair of Bouchard and Ekholm are due for a little market correction as the Oilers see a bump in their performance numbers with them on the ice. But the results haven’t aligned quite yet because of their on-ice shooting percentage. Considering they spend a lot of time with the top players and had a lot of success together prior to this series, it’s fair to expect their results to improve.

Also noticed that Broberg has played the third most minutes at even-strength this series, which says a lot about the trust the coaching staff has in this player. And how his style of play and ability to make plays under pressure is well suited to counteract with the Panthers style. Should note that even in all situations, Broberg ranks third in ice time among defencemen as he’s taken Nurse’s minutes on the penalty kill and thriving in that situation. It’s a small sample size for now, but the Oilers are allowing the lowest rate of shots against with Broberg on the ice when shorthanded, and he’s a big reason why the penalty kill is doing so well this series.

The Oilers depth players, including guys like McLeod, Kane, Perry and Brown, are struggling and are going to be a focus of attention if the Oilers lose the series. After four games, the Oilers are posting a +3 goal differential (5-2) with McDavid on the ice, thanks to an on-ice Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals For percentage of 56%. Without McDavid, the Oilers have posted a -2 goal differential (4-6). And that’s largely driven by their Corsi For percentage of 44% and an Expected Goals for percentage of 48%. To get out of the hole they’re in, the Oilers need their depth guys to be a factor. And that includes their second line with Draisaitl, who looks like he’s dealing with an injury.

Below is how the Panthers skaters have performed in this series.

Have to say, the top end players in Florida haven’t been very impressive. Bennett, Verhaeghe and Tkachuk are all posting negative shot differentials and goal differentials, and aren’t driving things like the Oilers top players have. Having said that, their PDO levels are quite low right now, so there might be a bounce back game coming for some of them. Of all of the players we hear about, it’s actually been Rodrigues that’s had a great series so far. Team tends to out-shoot and out-chance the Oilers at even-strength with him on the ice, and he’s posted a +4 on ice goal differential (the highest among both teams).

The Oilers and Panthers special teams are basically cancelling each other out, as both powerplays have scored only once this series. Both teams did an excellent job at suppressing shots and chances on the penalty kill during the regular season and in the first three rounds of the post-season. So this isn’t completely surprising. It’s really going to come down to goaltending on the penalty kill, and which netminder will maintain their level of play. Both goalies posted similar numbers in the regular season, and played significant minutes. Among the 59 goalies who played at least 100 minutes on the penalty kill during the regular season, Bobrovsky ranked 19th with an 87.50 percent save percentage playing the most minutes in the league. And Skinner ranked 40th with an 85.40 percent save percentage and played the fourth highest number of minutes.

Because the Oilers are posting good underlying numbers at even-strength and have their top line and top pairing in good form, they definitely have a shot at pushing this series to seven games. It’s really going to come down to the Oilers goaltending, and if Skinner can post league-average numbers. And getting scoring from lines two to four at even-strength. Both have been areas of weakness throughout the playoffs, but can easily turn around based on the success they had in the regular season. Combine that potential bounce back with a few goals on the powerplay, and the Oilers should make this a more competitive series.

Data: Natural Stat Trick