The Oilers are two wins away from reaching the conference finals. They finished second in their division, getting significant offence from their top line and some outstanding goaltending from Cam Talbot. The west was wide open this season, as there weren’t any offensive juggernauts like Pittsburgh or Washington, and the Oilers did a good job taking advantage. I thought their defensive game was still lacking, and relied a little too much on McDavid being on the ice, but for the most part, they didn’t ride any percentages.
It’s great to see the Oilers back in the playoffs and doing well. And I hope this post-season run changes the expectations fans have for the team going forward.
In my mind, expectations changed once the Oilers won the draft lottery, as growth/development was no longer going to be an excuse with a talent like McDavid in the fold. And the Oilers recognized that as well hiring an experienced general manager and coach soon after.
For me, everything the Oilers do has to be geared towards winning a cup, especially with McDavid on the payroll. And a lot of my work has been based on the pursuit of become legitimate contenders and winning a championship. This has made my work pretty critical of the Oilers and management, as I’m really interested in the ways to make winning sustainable. I won’t have all of the solutions (I don’t think “hockey men” do either), but it’ll be fun discussing the Oilers now with more people demanding a championship.
Radio segment from this morning with Lowetide on TSN 1260 is at SoundCloud. Topics we covered:
Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to talk about the Oilers series against the Sharks, and what to expect against the Ducks in round two. Clip starts around 20 minutes in.
I joined Adrienne Pan on the CBC Edmonton News to talk about the blowout loss in San Jose and what we can expect for game five. Clip is here and starts around the 10 minute mark: CBC Edmonton News (2017, April 19).
Topics we covered:
What went wrong in game four
What areas the team will need to improve on
Compared the goal and shot metrics at even-strength over the first four games
Joined Lowetide this morning for my weekly segment on TSN 1260 to chat Oilers. Clip starts around the 20 minute mark, but definitely check out Jake Sundstrom’s segment right before. He and the crew at Fear the Fin do some great work covering the Sharks.
I joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to talk Oilers. Clip is below and starts a few minutes in.
Topics we covered:
Big win against the Ducks on Saturday night
The season-long Corsi For% is trending downards
Potential playoff matchups (vs Calgary, San Jose or Anaheim)
The Oilers penalty kill and if Anton Lander could help
Comparing the play of Drake Caggiula and Anton Slepyshev
Upcoming road games in Los Angeles, San Jose and Vancouver.
Couple thoughts:
The more I watch this team, the more I think they might end up being like the Habs and Rangers in the past. They’re getting outshot now more regularly (rank 18th in the league with a 50.1, score-adjusted Corsi For%), but the Oilers are getting some very good goaltending from Talbot that’s just been bailing them out, night after night. The Oilers rank 6th in the league today when it comes to team save percentage at even-strength (92.9%), which is outstanding. If Talbot does this again next season, I’ll consider him elite (he’s just below that group right now, in my opinion). (Data: Natural Stat Trick)
History has shown that the best teams, the ones that can contend for the Cup, have good possession numbers, especially in their final 25 games of the regular season. The Oilers need to be better, and really need to figure out how to slow down the rate of shots against. It’s been brutal, even with McDavid on the ice. Wrote about it last week:
Goal scoring is always tougher in the playoffs, so it’s great news that the Oilers have a pretty decent powerplay running right now. They rank 5th in the league (and 1st in the west) when it comes to goals per hour. And it looks to be sustainable, as they’re 10th when it comes to the rate of unblocked shots generated (75.67), and 9th when it comes to shots on goal per hour (53.65).
And it looks like whatever adjustments the team made on the penalty kill has been working. They reduced the rate of shots against in the month of March, and the goaltending bounced back in a big way. Al mentioned this in our segment, which I didn’t touch on in my article, but Caggiula and McDavid are getting more reps shorthanded, and have added some much needed speed. Here’s what I wrote on the penalty kill last week:
In my opinion, the most important prospect for the Oilers, aside from McDavid, is Draisaitl. He brings a lot of elements that the team needs to win championships. And I think he has the skill and size that could potentially drive a line in the future. But until there’s evidence of it, I have to remain skeptical. Without McDavid or Hall with him at 5v5, Draisaitl’s on-ice Corsi For% is 49.8%, which isn’t bad. And his on-ice goal-share is 40.7%. It’d be foolish to hand him a heavy, long-term contract without even knowing if he can drive a line, but I suspect that management has already made up their minds.
PS: I’m pretty stoked about the playoffs, and happy to hear more and more people talk about really contending for a championship. For far too long, making the playoffs was the end goal, and I think that’s a poor way to build a team. I don’t think any club should be given a pass because they’re young, or that they need “learn how to win”, whatever that means. Championship windows, as we’ve seen in Dallas this year, can open and close pretty quickly, so it’s critical to push for a championship as soon as you can. With McDavid, that sped up the process considerably, and it’s nice to see the conversation around the Oilers start to change. The Oilers are in a fantastic spot right now and the pieces are coming together. Still some holes to figure out in the off-season. But for now, anything is possible.
I joined Kim Trynacity on the CBC Edmonton News last night to preview the game against the Kings and potentially clinching a playoff spot. Link is here, clip starts around the 19:30 mark: CBC Edmonton News (2017, March 28).
Topics we discussed:
Could the Oilers beat the Kings tonight
Keys to success this season
MVP season for McDavid
Cam Talbot’s play
Potential first round matchups
Quick note: the graphic we used to highlight the team’s goal-share at even-strength and a breakdown of McDavid’s numbers had a small error in it. The goal-share for the team was supposed to be 53.9%, not 59%. Data was pulled from Natural Stat Trick.
I also joined Trisha Estabrooks on CBC Radio Active on Tuesday afternoon.
Joined Lowetide on Monday morning on TSN 1260 to talk Oilers. Clip is below and starts around the 25 minute mark.
One of the more interesting issues around the Edmonton Oilers this season has been the performance of the team when Connor McDavid hasn’t been on the ice. The second-year forward has been an absolute offensive force for the club, consistently using his skill and speed to lead the attack and create scoring opportunities at will. Over the course of the season, the Oilers as a team have maintained a decent share, right around league average, of the shot attempts, scoring chances and goals, thanks in large part to the play of McDavid.
What we’ve come to realize though after 71 games is that the Oilers are icing two very different teams: one with McDavid that can outshoot and outscore opponents, and another one without McDavid on the ice that posts numbers below league average. With McDavid on the ice at even-strength (5v5) this season, the Oilers have an incredible goal-share of 61.17% (outscoring opponents 63 to 40). Without McDavid on the ice, the team can only muster a goal-share of 48.72%, having been out-scored 80-76. When it comes to shot-metrics, which are used to predict future goal-share, the Oilers have a Corsi For% of 53.16% with McDavid on the ice, having outshot opponents 1,151 to 1,014. Without McDavid, the team has a Corsi For% of 48.49%, below league average and a troubling number considering the expensive personnel on the roster. Please refer to the Appendix for descriptions of the five metrics.
Now the good news is that the secondary lines have recently been contributing more. Jordan Eberle appears to have bounced back from his poor start and has been productive on a line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Milan Lucic. The trio have played 220 minutes together so far, and hold a Corsi For% of 51.39%, scoring five even-strength goals together and allowing six. The newly formed trio of Montreal castaways featuring Benoit Pouliot, David Desharnais and Zack Kassian have now played roughly 48 minutes together, outscoring opponents 4-2 (a goal-share of 66.7%), and getting 48.8% of the shot attempts. Worth noting that this line is riding a 17.4% shooting percentage, which is likely to drop off eventually.
While the goal-scoring has improved without McDavid on the ice, a closer look at the shot metrics indicates that the secondary offence is still sputtering. Below is a graph with the five metrics broken out into rolling 25-game segments, capturing the team’s performance without McDavid.