Joined Lowetide on Tuesday morning to talk Oilers, the trade deadline, signing Brossoit and Davidson.

 

Finally into the homestretch, and I’m honestly just looking forward to the off-season. Hopefully Chiarelli and the management team have had enough time “assessing” the roster and will have more cap space to make some moves. We knew going into the season that making any trades would be from a position of weakness as the other 29 teams knew the Oilers contract count and salary cap issues. The trade deadline should see some contracts moved, with Purcell and Schultz definitely on the way out. I suspect that Hendricks and a couple more pieces from the bottom six (hopefully Korpse) draw some interest.

Here’s my radio spot from Monday with Lowetide on TSN 1260.

 

We discussed a number of things, including some hidden gems in the league and which defencemen I thought the Oilers should look into. I mentioned Matt Irwin, who was shipped to the AHL by the Bruins very early in the year. A while back, I dug into his numbers from the past few seasons as a Shark, and found that Irwin is definitely a volume shooter who has success getting pucks on the net. This is something that’s been lacking for the Oilers and will be critical for the team to have success under McLellan. Irwin is a left shot, which the Oilers are loaded with, but I think he’s worth a cheap contract, maybe even on a two-way agreement.

I also mentioned Yannick Weber, who, for whatever reason, is buried in Utica by the Canucks. I’ve always liked his game, and his underlying numbers indicate to me that he’s an NHL player. Again, he’ll be undervalued, so it doesn’t hurt to bring him in and have him compete for a spot. He’s only 27, has a right handed shot and has played 265 games at the NHL level.

 

I’m really doubting that the Oilers make drastic changes at the deadline. Other than shipping their expiring contracts out to get picks and prospects, I can’t imagine them doing much else. Dealing significant pieces (like say RNH or Nurse) should happen around the draft and into the summer instead of at the deadline when player values are completely skewed. It’s a market for teams that are making a run for the playoffs, so I wouldn’t expect the Oilers to get real value from trading a significant asset.

I really think the Leafs are looking like a sharp team right now moving their low value assets and expiring contracts for picks. While it’s true that the chances of draft picks from later rounds reduces, teams that load up on picks like the Leafs are simply increasing their odds of finding a solid pick. These picks can always be packaged with other picks to acquire players, similar to what the Oilers did to acquire Talbot last summer. The Leafs definitely understand this and have made some very, very smart moves over the past 12 months. I’d be curious to know how they would have handled the Oilers if they were in Chiarelli’s shoes last summer.

Something else that’s been somewhat annoying is hearing/reading suggestions that the Oilers need to move RNH or need to move Nurse, without getting into who would come back or replace the players minutes and assignments. I think fans (myself included) tend to look at the team from the inside out and often over value our own players before considering what a fair return would be. So yes, trade RNH if you must for a defenceman (who exactly, I haven’t been made aware) but then you have to consider who would take on the best competition and produce at a top six level. The only names that come to mind are Frans Nielsen (UFA 2016, 31 years old), Darren Helm (UFA 2016, 29 years old) and maaaaybe Lars Eller if he shakes lose from Montreal. I haven’t dug much further into this, but I haven’t come across any other potential replacements.

As for Nurse, I think you have to consider moving him if you get back a top two defenceman like Hamonic (who is also on an amazing contract, and is just entering his prime) or Tyson Barrie (see Alan Hull’s excellent article here). But if you see Nurse as a number one guy a few years down the road, you’ll probably hate any suggestions to trade the prospect. All I ask is if you want to toss around names of players that should be moved, I highly recommend you look into how their minutes will be replaced. It’s harder than you think, but it makes for a much more engaging discussion.

For the numbers people, G Money of Oilers Nerd Alert has published WOWY data for his Dangerous Fenwick stat (LINK). For more information on this metric that factors in shot distance, check out this background piece.

Also came across this from Zac Urback, who looked into shot location by defence pairing for the Oilers. How to read this: above the red line is shot generation, and below the red line is shot suppression. Green is inside shots/60, grey is outside shots/60. I definitely like these kinds of graphs as a quick check really to make sure what I’m seeing (or think I’m seeing) can be validated with data. And yes, we can confirm, again, that Klefbom and Davidson are good defencemen.

One last thing. I recently wrote an article on why the Oilers should consider bringing back David Perron, who will be a free agent this summer. I’ll admit that he was my favorite player when he was here, mainly because he had a good mix of skill and the ability to irritate opponents. I think the Oilers could really use someone like Perron, who similar to Pouliot, can play around the crease area and not always skate past it. Most of the feedback I’ve received has been more about him being a bad person off the ice, and how he has burned bridges with the Oilers and now the Penguins. I honestly have no idea, nor do I care, what his off ice issues are, since it’s all gossip. What I did find was that he’s had stretches where he struggled, but for the most part has been a positive impact on his team’s success wherever he goes. He’s lighting it up in Anaheim right now, so his value might go higher, especially if they go on a playoff run. But if the price is right, and a roster spot opens up, I really hope the Oilers make an offer to him.

 

 

Joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. Full audio clip is here.

 

Couple Thoughts:

Davidson

It’s been great to see young Brandon Davidson flourish this season as a depth defencemen. He’s one of the few defensive prospects that has come through the OIlers organization and has been able to contribute right away. I thought it was ironic that on the same day that Todd McLellan referred to Davidson as a “steady-Eddie” player, Steady Steve was featured on the Oilers Twitter page as part of the Farewell Rexall Place event.

The great thing about Davidson is that he’s been, for the most part, been playing on the bottom pair with the occasional appearance in the top four. He’s also been effective in all situations and has for the most part had a positive influence on the team’s overall performance (thanks to Zac for the idea).

Davidson is under team control for another few years, so there really should be no rush to throw him into any sort of trade. Hopefully the Oilers can shore up their defence this summer and ensure that Davidson plays in a spot that he can succeed in going forward.

Lander and the bottom six

I’ve been pretty disappointed in not only Lander’s performance this season, but also how the coaching staff has handled the player in relation to the bottom six. I never had high expectations for Lander, mainly because the bulk of his points scored last season were on the powerplay. But I did think he would take another step in his career and establish himself as a strong depth player who could move up in the lineup as needed.

It’s become pretty obvious that the Oilers are ready to move on from Lander. He hasn’t dressed for a game since the all-star game, being healthy scratched now for seven straight games. Even after the club got destroyed in back-to-back games in Montreal and Long Island, the coaching staff saw no need to insert Lander into the roster to shake things up. And recently when McLellan really shook things up, Hall was being centered by Letestu at one point, even though Hall had success last season being centered by Lander.

Really, the Oilers should be moving Hendricks back to his natural spot on wing, and have Lander back at center. Lander has not been productive this season, but you can’t tell me Letestu and Korpikoski have been any better. Lander has also had success this season playing with Pakarinen and Yakupov, so it’d make way more sense going with that on the 3rd/4th line. Letestu should be paired with Kassian (which I thought worked well) with Hendricks as the winger there. Korpikoski should ideally be the odd man out, but I don’t see management allowing that to happen.

Loading up on Centers

I’d really like to see the OIlers load up at center this off season to have depth in the position. Next season should feature Draisaitl, RNH and McDavid as pivots, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Draisaitl play wing with RNH in the middle. This would be similar to how McLellan ran Thornton and Pavelski at times in San Jose, which was highly effective.

The main issue for the Oilers is the lack of stability and production from the bottom six. I’m convinced that moving Korpikoski would solve a lot of the problems, especially when it comes to possession and scoring chances. But the team should still be adding depth players that can contribute, play tough minutes, kill penalties and fill-in WHEN injuries happen. It’s early, but the players that interest me are Kyle Chipchura, Darren Helm and Mike Santorelli (who actually played mostly wing the last few seasons, but can play center). These should not be costly signings, and should be movable contracts if a situation arises.

I’d definitely keep Letestu, but have him shift to wing and move to center if needed. I don’t think he’s been effective at all and would like to see someone else get a shot at the 4C slot. Lander I’d obviously keep, but I don’t think he’s in the long term plans.

 

 

 

Joined Lowetide on Monday morning to discuss the Oilers, including the back-to-back losses, the holes on defence and what to expect in terms of transactions. Full audio clip is below, starting around the 7:30 mark.

Couple notes:

• I really didn’t expect the Oilers to do well in Montreal. Even though the Habs have been terrible for months, they’ve still posted some decent possession numbers (52.7% CF adjusted since December 1st), but have been completely sunk by terrible goaltending (90.7%, last in the league) with Price out of the lineup. They were bound to have a decent game eventually, which they did against an Oiler team that looked gassed in the first period.
• I didn’t think the Oilers stood a chance against the Islanders, especially with Nilsson in net. He’s been dreadful over his last few starts now, with all that talk about head-trajectory training all but forgotten. I was hoping the Oilers could keep it close and show some signs of a bounce back, but I honestly could not find a single positive from the game. Next up are the Devils, who have been pretty bad possession wise, but have one of the best team save percentages in the league. This one is going to be boring and probably won’t end well for the Oilers.

@sunilagni @Lowetide Could you answer why schultz played after his performance in Montreal? But Nurse didn’t? Nurse was better on Sat right?

— Brandon Parsons (@Bparsonsproject) February 8, 2016

• Without a doubt, Schultz was the worst player on the ice in Montreal. Quick summary of the defence core’s time-on-ice and the shot attempts for and against (Source: Natural Stat Trick)

Player	TOI	CF	CA
Eric Gryba	18:45	23	11
Brandon Davidson	17:14	19	16
Andrej Sekera	16:12	14	18
Darnell Nurse	16:05	10	14
Justin Schultz	15:35	7	15
Mark Fayne	13:44	14	15

 

• Schultz was caught in the wrong position so many times in Montreal and made some glaring mistakes in his own end. I actually thought McLellan would replace Schultz with Clendening for the game in Brooklyn. Instead, it was Darnell Nurse who sat out the next game. Nurse was actually okay that game, but he’s on the left side, making him an easy candidate to swap out for Reinhart to play against his old teammates. Here’s how the defence core did in Brooklyn:

 

Player	TOI	CF	CA
Brandon Davidson	19:31	12	9
Andrej Sekera	18:35	19	13
Eric Gryba	16:41	9	15
Griffin Reinhart	15:55	12	20
Justin Schultz	15:39	10	15
Mark Fayne	14:42	17	10

• My only keepers for defence next season are Sekera, Klefbom and Davidson on the left side, and Fayne on the right. I wouldn’t declare Davidson as a top 4 guy just yet. He’s done well as a bottom pairing defencemen, and I think he could do well with someone like Gryba next season. Nurse and Reinhart need time to develop, with the former likely getting more NHL time than the latter. If the Oilers want these two prospects to reach their potential, they have got to bring in some experienced players to round out the defence core. This would allow both Nurse and Reinhart to develop at the appropriate level.
• Quick rundown of where the Oilers rank in terms of possession, scoring chances and goals at even-strength at this point. Based on these we can see why the club is destined for a bottom five finish, and why we need to temper expectations even with young McDavid back in the lineup.
  • Corsi For% (Score adjusted) – 47.9% (22nd)
  • Scoring Chances For% – 48.3% (24th)
  • Goals For% – 43.2% (29th)
  • Team Save% – 91.2% (30th)
  • Team Shooting% – 7.4% (14th)

As always, let me know your thoughts.

Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. Full audio clip is below starting around the 8:00 mark.

Couple thoughts:

With McDavid coming back in, I’d prefer to see him reunited with Yakupov and Pouliot. The trio was one of the best lines in hockey before McDavid got hurt and posted a 52% Corsi For percentage in their time together (Source: Puckalytics). I thought Yak looked like a different player with McDavid, very active, especially in the neutral zone. I’d rather have seen Eberle pushed down to play with Letestu and Kassian (who as a pair have done very well so far since Kassian was called up). Looks like the coaching staff see otherwise and have slotted Eberle with McDavid, which you can’t go wrong with either. The fourth line looks like a mix of Lander, Hendricks, Pakarinen and Korpikoski. Fully expect Gazdic and Klinkhammer to be waived, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Gazdic stays and Lander is shipped out instead.

The defence is looking mighty weak and won’t look any better unless Sekera-Fayne are split up. The Oilers bottom four are Nurse and Reinhart on the left side, and Schultz, Clendening and Gryba on the right side. Among those five, I cannot find a combination that I like. Fully expect Schultz to be shipped out sooner rather than later with Clendening sliding right into his spot and paired with Nurse.

One player who I hope gets an extended stay in Edmonton is Pakarinen. He’s been a good depth winger with a tendency to shoot the puck, something McLellan has been preaching since his arrival. This season, among forwards who have played at least 20 games, Pakarinen is only behind Hall, Yakupov and Purcell when it comes to individual shot attempts per 60.

Pakarinen is an RFA this summer and qualifying him should be a no brainer. In a perfect world, he’d replace Korpikoski who has been dreadful this season, but is still being paid another $2.5 million next season. Unfortunately, Pakarinen will continue fighting for ice time, but should be retained as a good depth winger.

One thing that I’ve been spending more time on are the numbers being posted by the Oilers prospects in Bakersfield. A great website that captures some of theses stats is Prospect-Stats.com. Sean Tierney, who writes for Hockey Graphs and Today’s Slapshot has been nice enough to put together and publish team dashboards recently. Below are the Condor’s goals-for relative to teammate stats, 5v5:

We knew LaLeggia has been having a good season. Just didn’t know it’s been this good. Happy to see Musil on the plus-side, hopefully he gets some time in Edmonton before his contract is up. By this measure, Oesterle hasn’t been playing at a level I was expecting, but he’s still a prospect at this point. We know Reinhart hasn’t been great, but I think he’s almost guaranteed to be on the roster before guys like Musil and the rest.

 

Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. Full audio below, starting around the 7:40 mark.

 

Couple thoughts:

Shot Blocking

As frustrated as I was with RNH breaking his hand trying to block a shot, I can’t say I was too surprised. McLellan has never been averse to having his skilled guys kill penalties. And this past summer when I was looking into the Sharks history with McLellan behind the bench, one thing I found was that his teams blocked a high proportion of shot attempts at even-strength.

Keep in mind, the Sharks were one of the best possession teams with McLellan behind the bench, and often did well suppressing shots. Regardless, his team’s were committed to blocking shots and did so often. McLellan even reaffirmed the importance of blocking shots last week and said it was something that was expected of players (Source: 630 CHED).

Moneyball

Have to say that I’ve been pretty impressed by Kassian’s play thus far. He’s been fortunate in that he’s been able to slide into a roster spot with Hendricks having been suspended. Partnered with Letestu, Kassian has not been sheltered at all playing against top lines and is actually faring well when it comes to shot attempts for and against when he’s on the ice.

I’m especially fascinated by Kassian’s performance because it’s the second “moneyball” type experiment Chiarelli has conducted. The first being Anders Nilsson who was playing in the KHL before being acquired by the Oilers and replacing Scrivens. At this point, Kassian is a low-risk investment by the Oilers that has the potential to impact the roster makeup for next season. Which brings us to the next topic..

The Expendables

IF Kassian can continue playing well and keep things together off the ice, he could become a permanent fixture on the left side with Letestu, basically replacing Matt Hendricks. Now a couple things could go down. Hendricks could be moved down to the fourth line wing and slide to center as needed, which is something I’m in favor of. That would essentially be the end of Gazdic who really hasn’t established himself as a full time player. The other player who I think should be moved if Kassian is signed is Korpikoski who hasn’t been at all effective this season. He still has one more year on his deal that pays $2.5 million. Money that could be spent on a forward that can actually have a positive impact on his team.

Having said that, because of his age and his perceived value at the trade deadline, it would not at all surprise me if the Oilers move Hendricks instead and keep Korpse. Hendricks will be 35 this summer and has one more year remaining on his contract which will pay him $1.85 million. He’s played very well in a bottom six role this year, but isn’t likely in the Oilers long term plans.

One could also make the argument that if Kassian does well and is signed that Benoit Pouliot should be the one traded. First off, it makes no sense to get rid of a productive player like Pouliot, who is also one of the few players who forechecks really well. He does come at a hefty price tag of $4.0 million per season for the next three seasons. But that’s money well spent when you consider his scoring rates and impact on team possession. Side note: it only occurred to me today that Chiarelli once traded away Pouliot when he was in Boston to make room for a younger player in Caron (Source: Boston.com). It’s a different situation today, so I do not expect history to repeat itself.

Ice Time

Micah Blake McCurdy recently tweeted out graphs that display player ice time over the course of the year. Highly recommend checking out Micah’s work at Hockey Viz.

In the first graph, we see how Nurse has been getting a ton of ice time, and it really hasn’t been at all reduced despite his struggles. Can’t really blame him as there aren’t many options for McLellan. Also interesting to see Schultz getting some more ice time, which I personally think is a way to showcase him a bit more leading into the deadline. He hasn’t been getting as many offensive opportunities as last year, but his deployment has definitely changed in the last few weeks.

As for the second graph, the only thing that stands out is RNH’s reduced ice time after his flu bug (thanks to Bruce McCurdy for pointing that one out). We also see here that Letestu is getting a lot more ice time as the season has wore on. He’s definitely found some nice chemistry with Kassian and Pakarinen in the last few weeks, so hopefully that continues. Definitely something to keep any eye on as this could alter the Oilers roster going forward.

As always, let me know if you have any feedback.

Oh and for fun:

 

Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss all things Oilers. Audio below.

Couple thoughts:

Talbot

The $4 million per season was a slight overpay, but I can’t say I’m too surprised. Talbot and his agent held a lot of power going into negotiations considering that the Oilers already invested two picks in him and his impending UFA status. I’m not convinced that Talbot would’ve received $4 million in free agency, considering how the other “goalies with potential” did last summer.

If you’re interested,  I wrote about Talbot just a few days before he was signed over at The Copper & Blue. I basically looked at Corey Schenider’s 2012 contract with Vancouver and Martin Jones contract with San Jose last summer as comparables. They were different situations, but I thought those three goalies had some similarities worth exploring.

Like most people, I’m pretty high on young Laurent Brossoit. He’s getting a lot of starts in the AHL right now and playing very well. In my opinion, he should get another full year in Bakerfield before pushing for the backup role. That would mean either signing Nilsson to a value contract or dipping into free agency this summer when there are always options for cheap goaltending.

The other issue is that Laurikainen might not be ready to be a full time starter in the AHL yet. Condors head coach Fleming had this to say recently regarding pushing Brossiot too soon (Source: Oilers Nation)

I think it would be a step back in his development. He needs to play and he needs to play 75% of the games. We have a young guy in (Eetu) Laurikainen and from an organizational standpoint he can benefit and learn from working with ‘LB’ this year much like LB learned from (Richard) Bachman last year. If you asked ‘LB’ he’d be the first one to admit that watching Bachman play last year throughout the season and the playoffs that he learned a lot. You’ve got to pass that on – pay it forward. ‘LB’s playing a lot and he’s learned a lot and he now passes that on to Eetu and from an organizational standpoint everybody benefits. To bring ‘LB’ up now and have him sit on the bench would just be a big step back in his overall development to where they want him to be coming out of this year.

Kassian

The most recent acquisition has been playing steady minutes alongside Mark Letestu for the most part and hasn’t looked out of place in his first two games. Against Calgary, Kassian got a ton of ice time and played against the top six Flames forwards for the most part.

Here’s a graph courtesy of Hockey Viz that shows us how often Kassian started a face-off shift and where he started. He’s definitely not being sheltered, but we’ll have to see what happens with Hendricks, who is Letestu’s regular line mate, gets back in the line up tonight.

Corsi

Interesting question came in during our segment this morning in regards to Corsi and why a high possession rating hasn’t translated into wins for the Habs. Having a high Corsi For % does not guarantee success…it does improve your chances of winning but, as the Kings could attest to last season, there’s a lot of randomness that has to be factored in. Highly recommend checking out this piece from Arctic Ice Hockey for more on the limitations of Corsi.

As for the Habs, since December 1^st, they’ve only had 9 points and the worst goal-differential in the league despite having a Corsi For% (score adjusted) of 53.2%. The problem for the Habs is that their PDO (on-ice shooting % + on-ice save percentage), which measures luck, is the worst in the league at 94.1. Their on-ice save percentage at even-strength is dead last at 90.6% during that stretch. And their shooting percentage since December 1^st is the second worst in the league at 5.5%. Prior to December 1? Their PDO was above 102, third highest in the league.

As always, let me know if you have any feedback.

Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. Audio below.

Couple thoughts:

Last night’s game had to have been the third or fourth straight one that was just dreadful to watch. The Oilers cannot sustain any sort of pressure in the offensive zone, rarely picking up rebounds or getting second chances. They may have outshot the Panthers, but they weren’t really a threat around the net. The Oilers are sitting near the bottom of the league when it comes to goals, scoring chances and possession, and I don’t expect much to change until Klefbom and McDavid come back.

.@EdmontonOilers only had 1 o-zone loose puck recovery in the @FlaPanthers defensive-slot last night; #panthers had 4 in #oilers d-slot #nhl

— Christopher Boucher (@Chris_LogiQ) January 11, 2016

 

The hit on Hall was clean in my opinion. I just don’t get why there’s a need for instant retribution, and lacking a quick response is any sort of indication that the team lacks unity or toughness. Hall plays a style that makes him vulnerable to these hits..it’s part of the trade-off to generate offence. If the Oilers want to replace skill with goons, they can’t expect to win. Now if you can find guys that can play physical and have an impact on a nightly basis, and not be a liability, I’m all for it. I’m hoping Khaira can be that guy in a season or two. And I really  wouldn’t spend big money to solve team toughness.

I’m also reminded of this line from Kassian shortly after he broke Gagner’s jaw and the Oilers brought in McIntyre. Loved it.

Also keep in mind that the Sharks management kinda lost their minds last off-season when they thought they needed toughness and signed Mike Brown and John Scott to contracts. Seriously, we should ask Todd McLellan how that worked out for him.

I’m also very interested to see how the team will handle the Cam Talbot contract. He’s been getting better game to game, but it’s hard to judge what his true value is. There’s always that balance between the goalie’s actual value, and how the team perceives his value. The Oilers have already invested two draft picks in him, which really puts Talbot in the driver seat of negotiations. Having said that, the Oilers can point to his record and save percentage and try to portray Nilsson as a candidate for the number one job to drive down the cost. I’ll have to dig into this more, but the three contracts I would point to if I were the Oilers is Martin Jones 3yr/$9M contract with San Jose, Corey Schneider’s 3 yr/$12M contract with the Canucks and Schneider’s 7-year/$42M extension with the Devils. Obviously different situations for each player and team, but based on age and experience, these are the ones I would look at first. Right now, I think Talbot is worth $3.5M per season for four seasons, which would take him through his prime. Based on his play, I don’t think teams will be lining up to sign him as there are always plenty of options in the off-season.

 

Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. Always enjoy chatting with Allan.

Couple of notes:

• I did see the winning streak as a bit of a mirage. Don’t get me wrong, it was a lot of fun, especially that Friday night win against the Rangers on home ice. But the fact that the club was getting outshot and outchanced, and that the goaltending numbers were slightly above their season average, made me skeptical. The other issue is that the Oilers needed overtime and shootout frequently in that winning stretch to close out games. Good teams are able to close out games in regulation. If you keep putting yourself in luck-driven scenarios, you can expect to eventually get burnt.
• The Klefbom loss is significant for the Oilers. Corey Travers over at Copper & Blue looked into just  how good Klefbom has been this season and where his underlying numbers are at.
• Looks like the RNH trade rumours are flaring up again. Funny how it tends to coincide with a losing streak. While I completely agree that the Oilers need a legitimate defenceman to play minutes and contribute on special teams, I don’t think it should come at the price of RNH. The guy is playing against the best players every night, allowing Draisaitl and Hall with some lighter minutes, especially on home ice. And if you trade him, who exactly would replace RNH? Dmitri Filopovic had a great defence piece a few weeks ago when the rumors were picking up. Highly recommend it.
• To be honest, I do not see the Oilers making any moves to bolster the defence core during the season. Really, what would be the point? The team will have cap space in the off season and won’t be pressured to tinker with their core.
• If you’re interested, Ryan Stimson over at Hockey Graphs put together a series of posts last week that looked into the passing data that he and his group of volunteers collected. The data from a sample of games is available now. Definitely something to keep an eye on going forward.

Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss all things Oilers. Link is below.

 

Couple thoughts:

• As much as I love seeing the Oilers on a roll, the underlying numbers are tempering my expectations. The club has improved when it comes to score adjusted Corsi For percentage, sitting at 47.8% now (22nd in the league), but there are still too many stretches where they either get hemmed in their own zone and allow a play to develop in front of their goal. This five game winning streak is great, but you have to keep in mind that they’re also shooting at 11.3% at even-strength. Before the winning streak, they were shooting at 7.3%, which is around average. (Source: War on Ice)
• The Oilers are in tough after losing Klefbom, and I think they’ve made it harder on themselves by calling up Nikitin to play next to Schultz. I fully expect some defensive line juggling this road trip as opposing coaches will surely target that pair, as well as young Darnell Nurse. Nikitin and Schultz together posted a 42.7% CF last season, but each posted over 50% CF apart (Souce: Hockey Analysis). Nikitin did get more starts in the offensive zone when he was with Schultz, but they did not produce well enough to stay together. Then again, there’s a new system in place this year that pushes for shot volume, so the pair might do better. Who knows.
• Speaking of Nurse, Jonathan Willis put together a nice summary of the young defenceman’s struggles as of late. He’s been on the ice for more shots against, especially in the last five games. Ideally, he should be playing down the roster a bit, but unfortunately the options to play with Sekera are slim. I always thought the Sekera-Fayne pairing would be the top pair this year, with both having experience playing against the top forwards in the league.
• By the way, you cannot convince me that Nikitin is a better option than Fayne. I firmly believe the Oilers intended to showcase Nikitin even before Klefbom went down with an injury. Would not surprise me if we see Nikitin dealt by Christmas.
• One thing to note is the deployment and performance of young Jujhar Khaira. I don’t expect him to be a regular this season once Pouliot, Yak and McDavid are back. But he does have a good chance of making someone like Klinkhammer expendable. He played another game on Friday where he didn’t look out of place, and managed to keep up with core players in RNH and Eberle. The trio are out against the top lines, with Khaira picking up some much needed experience. I also like that the Oilers aren’t trying to force Khaira to play center and instead have started him on the wing to learn the NHL game first before becoming a potential pivot.

Recommended Links:

Nilsson, Hall, Draisaitl the “three stars” of Edmonton Oilers’ Third Segment – Cult of Hockey

Even Without Scoring Anton Lander Brings Value to the Edmonton Oilers – Cult of Hockey

I Just Can’t Fayne Surprise – Oilers Nerd Alert

Edmonton’s Beating Heart – OilersNation