hockey

Keeping pace

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Even though the Oilers are down 3-1 in their series against the Florida Panthers, the Oilers are doing a lot of things right. And giving hope to a market that the series could go to seven games. Games are won and lost by the smallest of margins in the post-season, and it’s critical that the team maintain it’s performance at even-strength and the penalty kill.

Here’s how the two teams have compared at even-strength (5v5) over the first four games. The Oilers have outscored the Panthers 9-8 in this game state, which is about 71% of the total minutes. If you factor in the other even-strength game-states (3v3 and 4v4), the Panthers have a slight edge in goals (11-10). In all situations, each team has twelve goals, including a shorthanded goal for the Oilers. The results are pretty darn close, and indicates that the series should be tied. But that’s how playoff hockey goes.

While the Panthers have a slight edge when it comes to controlling the flow of play, the Oilers are doing a better job at creating scoring chances, as reflected by their Fenwick For percentage and Expected Goals For percentage. After getting a thrashing in game four in Edmonton, Bobrovky’s save percentage is now below 90.00 percent and barely better than Skinner’s. Bobrovsky played a lot of minutes during the regular season, similar to Skinner, so I do wonder if fatigue is setting in.

Below is an overview of how the Oilers and Panthers have performed this series at even-strength (5v5), as as well as their actual on-ice results.

The Oilers line featuring McDavid and Hyman continues to be a significant driver for the club, and should never really be counted out. The top defence pair of Bouchard and Ekholm are due for a little market correction as the Oilers see a bump in their performance numbers with them on the ice. But the results haven’t aligned quite yet because of their on-ice shooting percentage. Considering they spend a lot of time with the top players and had a lot of success together prior to this series, it’s fair to expect their results to improve.

Also noticed that Broberg has played the third most minutes at even-strength this series, which says a lot about the trust the coaching staff has in this player. And how his style of play and ability to make plays under pressure is well suited to counteract with the Panthers style. Should note that even in all situations, Broberg ranks third in ice time among defencemen as he’s taken Nurse’s minutes on the penalty kill and thriving in that situation. It’s a small sample size for now, but the Oilers are allowing the lowest rate of shots against with Broberg on the ice when shorthanded, and he’s a big reason why the penalty kill is doing so well this series.

The Oilers depth players, including guys like McLeod, Kane, Perry and Brown, are struggling and are going to be a focus of attention if the Oilers lose the series. After four games, the Oilers are posting a +3 goal differential (5-2) with McDavid on the ice, thanks to an on-ice Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals For percentage of 56%. Without McDavid, the Oilers have posted a -2 goal differential (4-6). And that’s largely driven by their Corsi For percentage of 44% and an Expected Goals for percentage of 48%. To get out of the hole they’re in, the Oilers need their depth guys to be a factor. And that includes their second line with Draisaitl, who looks like he’s dealing with an injury.

Below is how the Panthers skaters have performed in this series.

Have to say, the top end players in Florida haven’t been very impressive. Bennett, Verhaeghe and Tkachuk are all posting negative shot differentials and goal differentials, and aren’t driving things like the Oilers top players have. Having said that, their PDO levels are quite low right now, so there might be a bounce back game coming for some of them. Of all of the players we hear about, it’s actually been Rodrigues that’s had a great series so far. Team tends to out-shoot and out-chance the Oilers at even-strength with him on the ice, and he’s posted a +4 on ice goal differential (the highest among both teams).

The Oilers and Panthers special teams are basically cancelling each other out, as both powerplays have scored only once this series. Both teams did an excellent job at suppressing shots and chances on the penalty kill during the regular season and in the first three rounds of the post-season. So this isn’t completely surprising. It’s really going to come down to goaltending on the penalty kill, and which netminder will maintain their level of play. Both goalies posted similar numbers in the regular season, and played significant minutes. Among the 59 goalies who played at least 100 minutes on the penalty kill during the regular season, Bobrovsky ranked 19th with an 87.50 percent save percentage playing the most minutes in the league. And Skinner ranked 40th with an 85.40 percent save percentage and played the fourth highest number of minutes.

Because the Oilers are posting good underlying numbers at even-strength and have their top line and top pairing in good form, they definitely have a shot at pushing this series to seven games. It’s really going to come down to the Oilers goaltending, and if Skinner can post league-average numbers. And getting scoring from lines two to four at even-strength. Both have been areas of weakness throughout the playoffs, but can easily turn around based on the success they had in the regular season. Combine that potential bounce back with a few goals on the powerplay, and the Oilers should make this a more competitive series.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

CBC Alberta at Noon: Do you think the Oilers can still win?

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Joined guest host Doug Dirks on CBC Alberta at Noon along with Dave Waddell from CBC Calgary to talk about the Edmonton Oilers, their playoff run and the first game at home in the finals. It was a great interactive show as we talked a lot about hockey, but also heard from a number of listeners about their personal experiences during the playoffs. Full segment is here: CBC Alberta at Noon (2024, June 13)

Topics we covered:

  • What went wrong in games one and two in Florida, and what the key factors were.
  • The general environment around this team, and why there’s plenty of optimism that the Oilers will bounce back.
  • The play of Stuart Skinner, the pressure he’s in, and what to expect from him.
  • The pressure around the Edmonton Oilers to win a championship, and the urgency fans are feeling.
  • The officiating during the playoffs, and the frustration fans are experiencing.

Thanks to the CBC team for putting it all together!

Dry spell

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It’s been a poor start for the Edmonton Oilers in their championship series against the Florida Panthers. After the first two games, they’ve been outscored 7-1 in all situations, with their only goal being scored by Matias Ekholm at four-on-four in game two. At even-strength (5v5), the Panthers have outscored the Oilers 4-0 so far, and have a powerplay goal on top of that. Their other two goals have been on an empty net.

The Oilers inability to score at even-strength (5v5) is definitely surprising considering the talent they have on the roster and the success they’ve had during the regular season. They finished first in the league in shots per hour with 32.87 and third in goals per hour with 2.90. Unfortunately, this level of production hasn’t carried over to the post-season, which isn’t surprising. We know teams ramp up their defensive play and intensity in the playoffs, and the Oilers are 20 games into a long playoff run. At this point, the Oilers are generating 25.92 shot per hour and have scored at a rate of 2.36 goals per hour. Against Florida, the Oilers are so far generating 25.44 shots per hour and zero goals.

Edmonton Oilers (5v5) Shots per hour Goals per hour Shooting%
vs Los Angeles 26.08 2.92 11.21
vs Vancouver 27.39 2.86 10.46
vs Dallas 23.88 2.02 8.46

Above is a quick snapshot of how the Oilers performed in the previous three rounds of the playoffs. What stands out is that as the Oilers have progressed deeper into the playoffs, their rate of shots per hour and their team shooting percentage has gradually declined. Against Los Angeles, they posted a shooting percentage of 11.21 percent, well above their regular season shooting percentage of 8.81 percent. But against Dallas, it slipped to 8.46 percent, and was part of the reason why they were outscored by Dallas at even-strength.

Breaking out the Oilers team’s shooting percentage over rolling five-games, we see that heading into the series against Florida, they were definitely in a downward trend. It still doesn’t explain not being able to score a single even-strength (5v5) goal. But it does indicate that the Oilers are hitting a wall, especially when McDavid isn’t on the ice.

Edmonton Oilers (5v5)

Shooting% with McDavid

 Shooting% without McDavid
vs Los Angeles 14.63 9.09
vs Vancouver 12.70 8.89
vs Dallas 11.48 5.80

The Oilers performance and results without their captain at 5v5 this post-season has flown under the radar a bit as the power play and penalty kill has been bailing the team out. In the first three rounds of the playoffs, the Oilers have been outscored 18-26 without McDavid, a goal-share of only 40.91 percent. This is largely driven by the fact that their Corsi For percentage has been 45.81 percent and their Expected Goals for percentage has been 44.82 percent. Combine this with their poor shooting percentage, especially in the last round against Dallas, and it’s no surprise that McDavid is being relied on to carry the load again. Goal-scoring from depth players is critical in the post-season, and really needed to be addressed at the trade deadline when there were options available.

One last thought, this one on the Oilers powerplay. The Panthers have done a really nice job limiting the Oilers shots and scoring chances. In the two games so far, the Oilers have only generated seven shots on goal in 13 powerplay minutes (31.19 shots per hour), which is wild considering they generated 79.66 shots per hour in the previous three rounds and 62.33 per hour in the regular season. When the Oilers have had trouble scoring with the man-advantage in the past, it was easy to stay optimistic because they’d still be generating lots of shots and scoring chances. So you knew it was a matter of time before the results came around. That doesn’t appear to be the case any more. Which makes solving their even-strength issues even more critical.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

ICYMI:

The Edmonton Oilers’ extra special teams

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The Edmonton Oilers special teams have kept the championship drive alive. The question now is if we can expect it to continue having success against the Florida Panthers.

One of the Edmonton Oilers’ major drivers for success this post-season has been their powerplay and penalty kill, which have produced outstanding results.

It’s been a factor in all three playoff rounds so far, as the Oilers have struggled to outscore opponents at even-strength, having only posted a +1 goal-differential over their 18 playoff games. They broke even in terms of goal-differential against the Los Angeles Kings, went +2 against the Vancouver Canucks and were a -1 against the Dallas Stars.

It’s really been the Oilers’ performance without McDavid’s line on the ice that’s caused these poor even-strength results. The team tends to get outshot and out-chanced consistently (46.54 percent expected goals for percentage), resulting in a -8 goal differential without their captain’s line and a +9 goal differential with him. The team, especially the depth players, are having issues converting on their chances at even-strength. And goaltending ranks as one of the worst among playoff teams in terms of save percentage and goals-saved above average.

Make no mistake, the special teams – featuring the top-end players and a lot of the depth players who are struggling at even-strength – have bailed this team out. And it’s hard to imagine the Oilers making it this far without the power play and penalty kill performing so well.

Powerplay

The Oilers have scored 19 power play goals in just under 74 minutes this post-season, a rate of 15.44 goals per hour. That’s one of the highest team rates in playoff history and isn’t even a level that the Oilers were running at during their regular season. The table below shows the Oilers’ regular season goal-scoring rate over rolling 18-game segments, with a blue line representing their current playoff scoring rate.

The Oilers’ results appear to be sustainable considering their skaters’ talent and overall health. Their current team shooting percentage of 19.39 percent is high, but this group was able to post a very similar rate over the full 2022/23 regular season – so it’s not totally out of the realm of possibility. Plus the group is currently generating 76.66 shots per hour, again one of the highest rates in playoff history and well ahead of the rest of the post-season teams.

It’s worth noting that the Florida Panthers have the potential to slow the Oilers power play down in this upcoming series. Their penalty kill has only allowed six goals in 85 minutes this post-season, a rate of 4.20 goals per hour that is second lowest among playoff teams – only behind Edmonton. The Panthers’ success is largely driven by their ability to prevent shots and chances, as their rate of 44.08 shots against per hour is the third-lowest in the league. And their goaltending save percentage ranks third best in the league. This post-season success appears to have carried over from their regular season. The Panthers finished with the fourth-lowest rate of shots against per hour (46.64) and the sixth-lowest rate of goals against per hour in the league (6.16).

Penalty kill

It’s remarkable how great the Oilers’ penalty kill has been this post-season, having shut down Los Angeles, who scored the 10th-highest rate of powerplay goals in the regular season, and Dallas, who scored the fifth-highest rate of powerplay goals in the regular season. The last power play goal the Oilers allowed was in game three against Vancouver on May 12th. In the ten games since, they’ve allowed zero.

A big reason for their success has been their ability to suppress offensive chances, as the club has allowed the second-lowest rate of shots against (39.87) among playoff teams. This strong defensive play in front of their goaltender is something that’s carried over from the regular season when the Oilers allowed the sixth-lowest rate of shots against (49.27 per hour). So it’s reasonable to expect the penalty kill success to continue, depending of course on if the goaltending can hold up. When shorthanded during the regular season, the Oilers team save percentage was the sixth worst in the league (84.68 percent). But it’s currently sitting at 94.92 percent in the playoffs, so there’s the possibility of some regression in the upcoming round.

The Panthers’ powerplay is generating plenty of chances this post-season, ranking third in terms of shots per hour (57.84). And it’s a carryover from the regular season when they finished with the second highest rate of shots per hour in the league. But they’ve had trouble converting on their chances during their playoff run, likely due to playing against some pretty elite goaltending. Tampa Bay, New York and Boston all finished top-five league wide when it came to shorthanded save percentage during the regular season. This has resulted in the Panthers’ powerplay scoring at a rate of 8.18 goals per hour, which is closer to league-average levels. Considering all this, it’s even more critical that the Oilers penalty killers continue to play strongly in front of Skinner, who, as mentioned above, could be at risk of some regression.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Data Journalism in Hockey

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old-time-reporterHockey analytics is doing some pretty remarkable stuff for the game. Not only are there new methods of understanding and following the game, but we’re beginning to see some of the more unintended consequences of its growth.

One thing to keep an eye on will be the evolution of hockey reporting and journalism. Analytics has received widespread attention this summer with NHL teams hiring experienced professionals and discussing the new statistics quite publicly. All of this is great, but now the people following the game, especially those that are relatively new to hockey analytics, will demand supporting evidence, in an easy-to-use, storytelling format.

Travis Yost brought up an excellent point, citing the potential for new data tracking technology as a reason why the demand for better sports writing will likely grow. There will definitely be teams looking to hire individuals with experience in analytics to keep up, but there will also be media outlets looking to enhance their coverage of the game and these advanced stats.

This will put the onus on anyone developing information about the game, whether it be newspaper writers, hockey analysts on television and fans online. The game has changed because of analytics, and now the information surrounding the game has to evolve.

What this means is that the distribution of  information has to shift from simple reporting to more data journalism. It won’t just be about grabbing quotes from coaches and players and then referencing some of the new stats like Corsi and Fenwick etc. But it’ll also mean having to embed graphics and information in an interactive and engaging way to tell a unique story.

The good news is, there are a handful of newspaper writers and bloggers who have been doing this very well for a few years now. James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail, as well as Japers’ Rink and SB Nation’s Outnumbered come to mind. But now, there will be an increasing demand for it. And I can definitely see some slick new platforms or reporting dashboards that can take all of the advanced stats and put together a strong game story.

Blogging platforms have served as a solid foundation and medium to develop hockey analytics. And now, they can be a real training ground for those looking to advance their careers in writing about the growing field.

 

Spengler Cup and World Junior Hockey Championship

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Two hockey tournaments going on right now. The Spengler Cup is an annual tournament in Switzerland for individuals playing in Europe. A lot of former players head overseas for various reasons. Could be the end of their career, maybe they couldn’t cut it in the NHL or perhaps they just enjoy the less rigorous schedule to balance hockey and family life. The tournament itself is pretty entertaining with some tight games. It hasn’t caught on in North America but is very popular in Europe.

The World Juniors Hockey Championships (WJHC) on the other hand, is a tournament for players under 21, who for the most part, are highly touted draft picks with a lot of potential. Ten teams compete for gold, with Canada and US being heavy favorites this year. This tournament is broadcasted by TSN so it gets tons of hype and coverage. It’s a big ratings draw in North America…not so much anywhere else.

So why is the WJHC a bigger draw than the Spengler Cup?

The Spengler Cup has mostly players in the European leagues, so we don’t know much about them. The ones we do recognize are former NHL players past their prime. On the flip side, the WJHC players are all unknowns as well since junior league games aren’t huge draws. Both tournaments have a Team Canada, so national pride can’t be the factor either.

The media machine known as TSN does a pretty good job boosting the WJHC. Player profiles, game analysis, commentators, and expanded coverage on TV and their website all contribute.

The big difference between the two tournaments is the linking and alignment of fans to the product.

The potential of young players is heavily emphasized as most of them are already drafted or will be eligible next summer. The player will always have a familiar NHL team attached to them at all times. Working with the familiar constructs in a viewers mind builds that attachment right away. Spengler Cup broadcasts have less to work with when trying to connect with the familiar. Former players are long forgotten and have established themselves in the European leagues.

Second, since there’s potential in the WJHC, fans have something to take away from the broadcast and work with. The player has time to become a professional, so a fan can watch them develop, follow their stats and make their own judgments over time. It’s also easier and more interesting to discuss potential players with other fans. Guesses can be made about how good/bad this player can be and then eventually be verified. Former players are is less relevant to fans with no real future and thus, less interesting to work with.

It’s easy to blame a mega sports network like TSN for over-hyping an event, but really its collective fan behaviour that dictates what gets coverage and what doesn’t.