hockey

Systemic power outage

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Pretty dreadful situation the Edmonton Oilers are currently in as they sit fifth in the Pacific with a 0.524 points percentage and a -12 goal-differential. Their situation is especially dire at even-strength (5v5) where they currently have a goal-differential of -16, a goal-share of only 41% that’s second worst in the league.

Key issues at even-strength:

  • Corsi for percentage is 49% (17th in the league)
  • Expected goals for percentage is 47% (25th)
  • Shooting percentage is 7.88% (28th)
  • Save percentage is 87.55% (32nd)

There are also the current issues that have come up countless times now in the Oilers’ McDavid era – and well documented on this website and elsewhere:

  • Struggling to perform and produce without McDavid on the ice
  • Playing too conservatively when holding any sort of lead.
  • Too many shots from the defencemen
  • Reverting to the McDavid/Draisaitl pairing when under any duress.
  • Lack of opportunity for younger/developing players.
  • Horrible on-ice numbers from players who have a history of posting horrible on-ice numbers, and continuing to overplay them (i.e., Nurse)

This is more than enough evidence to suggest that the team needs significant changes, and I wouldn’t be shy to look at the coaching staff first. The roster has had a lot of changes, and they were without Hyman for the start of the season. But there’s enough talent on the roster to ice a consistent, competitive team. If the team was at least posting some respectable shot-share and expected goal numbers, I’d let the results slide and expect some regression. But because the team is struggling to generate offence, which is what the coaching staff has direct influence on, it might be time for a coaching change.

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Digging into the offensive numbers a little more, it’s quite alarming that the team is only generating 38 unblocked shot attempts per hour, which ranks 22nd in the league. Last season, the Oilers ranked third with 45 unblocked shot attempts per hour, only behind Carolina and Florida. The season before that, the Oilers were second in the league with 46, only behind Carolina. The Edmonton Oilers have basically seen their rate of unblocked shot attempts drop by about 17 percent from the last few seasons.

What should really be unsettling for the Oilers front office is the fact that even Connor McDavid’s on-ice numbers have dropped. His current on-ice rate of 43 shot attempts per hour is a steep drop from 52, which he posted last season, and 55 that he posted the season before. In short, the best player in the world has seen his on-ice rate of unblocked shot attempts drop by around 20 percent in this coaching staff’s system. And yes, even without Nurse, his on-ice rate of unblocked shot attempts is still only 45.

Knoblauch and his group have really dropped the ball this season and will need to make some critical adjustments. The results at even-strength are some of the worst in the league, and a lot of the underlying issues fall within the coaching staff’s scope of expertise. There’s still time to turn things around, but it’s going to require less stubbornness and panicking – attributes that this head coach might have trouble shaking off.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Losing the end game

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Disappointing end for the Edmonton Oilers who were defeated soundly by the Florida Panthers. After rolling through the western conference, dominating territorial play, and getting production from across the roster, the Oilers could not keep up with the Panthers. While there were some reasons for optimism after the first four games of the series, all of that was put to rest with the Panthers outscoring Edmonton 10-3 in games five and six. Florida had more high-quality players than Edmonton and controlled every facet of the game.

Here’s how the two teams compared in the final series at even-strength (5v5). The Panthers out-scored Edmonton 16-10 (a 62 percent goal-share), which aligned well with their underlying shot-share numbers. The Panthers titled the ice consistently, pouncing on the Oilers blunders, taking smart risks, sustaining pressure, and generating chances. And it was reflected in their Corsi for percentage (55 percent) and expected goals for percentage (57 percent) – just outstanding numbers which aligned with how they had performed in their first three rounds in the eastern conference.

The only time the Oilers were a threat against the Panthers at even-strength was when McDavid and Draisaitl were on the ice together. They played 70 minutes (about 20 percent of the Oilers total time) and posted a Corsi For percentage of 59 percent and an Expected Goals for percentage of 57 percent – indicating that the Oilers controlled the flow of play and scoring chances. The issue was that they could not finish their chances, scoring only one goal and allowing five against (a goal-share of 16 percent). That’s far below the results we would expect from the top two players in the world, but that’s how things can go in a short tournament.

When the two stars were playing apart from one another (about 80 minutes of ice time), the team could not control the flow of play or scoring chances. And when neither player was on the ice (174 minutes, or 53 percent of the team’s total time), the Oilers were absolutely dreadful. Their Corsi For percentage and Expected goals for percentage were below 40 percent. Florida’s middle order and depth players completely dominated the Oilers and they were lucky to break even in goals. Again, Edmonton did not have enough high-quality players and by the end of the series the club looked gassed. While it was important to add experience to the roster, you could tell throughout the series that the team lacked speed and quick decision-making to handle the Panthers forecheck.

Here’s how the Oilers skaters performed at even-strength in the six games against the Panthers. Only a handful of players posted on-ice shot-share numbers above 50 percent – just a dismal showing.

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Losing Hyman and having Nugent-Hopkins and Ekholm injured played a big role in the Oilers overall performance and results. But there were a lot of self-inflicted problems as well. In goal, Edmonton knew what they had in Stuart Skinner as he has struggled to provide league-average goaltending for a few seasons now. On the back end, Edmonton knew what they had in Nurse and the negative impact he consistently has on his teammates and their on-ice numbers. And up front, Edmonton knew that more than a few depth players were posting negative on-ice shot-share numbers late in the regular season and in the first few rounds.

Begs the question – was the Oilers general manager ignorant to this information or just negligent?  And knowing that players like Nurse and Kane were struggling and making poor decisions and reads all over the ice, why was the coaching staff giving them more minutes at even-strength?

There are some very fundamental roster-construction strategies that the Oilers need to review this off-season. With a lot of inefficient contracts, aging players and major roster deficiencies, the Oilers have plenty of work to do. But they can’t approach it the same way they’ve done in the past. There has to be a focus on getting younger and quicker and being shrewder with contracts – especially for replacement-level players or those who struggle to have a positive impact on the team’s performance. While there’s a reputational risk of behaving this way, the Oilers have to be more focused on finding better players – not just those with personal connections to management or team personnel. The league is only getting more competitive, and the Oilers haven’t exactly loaded up on impactful prospects to keep pace. So, they’ll need a new approach to roster construction starting this off-season.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

How the Oilers and Panthers compare after the first four games of the finals

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It’s been a competitive series so far between the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers, and I don’t think it’d be surprising to see this go to seven games. It’s really going to come down to who makes the most blunders, the timing, and who does a better job at capitalizing on them.

Edmonton has a path to securing a championship here if they can stop taking thoughtless penalties and get some saves on the penalty kill. Over the four games, they’ve done a good job adjusting the lineup and combinations at even-strength, handling Florida’s tactics and getting decent production. Based on their performance and results, they have a good shot at getting to sixteen wins this post-season.

Florida has so far outscored Edmonton 18-14, thanks in large part to their powerplay success. Florida has done slightly better at even-strength (5v5), outscoring Edmonton 9-8. But if you factor in 4v4 time, the goals are even at 10 goals each. On the powerplay, it’s not as though the Panthers are generating a ton of high-quality chances. Their rate of shots has improved in the finals compared to earlier in the post-season, but it’s nothing spectacular. Based on expected goals, they should have only four power play goals. But because of the Oilers shaky goaltending shorthanded, Florida has seven (or three more than expected). And the Oilers powerplay is underperforming slightly based on expected goal models. They should have five powerplay goals, but only have four (and they also allowed a short-handed goal). In summary: the Oilers need their special teams to be better.

Here’s a quick snapshot of how the two teams have performed at even-strength (5v5) after four games. Note that the shot-share metrics are score-adjusted.

Florida is doing a better job at controlling the flow of play, as measured by the Corsi For percentage. But when it comes to scoring chances, it’s a lot closer with Florida having an edge. Edmonton’s lower-than-normal shooting percentage has cost them a goal or two. But their goaltending has saved them a few more than expected at even-strength. The Oilers expected goals against is 11, but they’ve only allowed nine. It’s just on the penalty kill where the Oilers goaltending has been poor. More on that in a minute.

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And here’s how the Oilers skaters have performed in the final series so far, and what their results have been. The skaters are split between forwards and defencemen, sorted by time on ice and have a heat map applied to show they compare with their teammates.

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One really encouraging sign is that McDavid and Draisaitl’s results are likely due for a market correction – which would be perfect timing. Both currently have a negative goal-differential despite driving play and spending more time in the offensive zone. Along with Perry and Nugent-Hopkins in the top six, they should be able to convert on more of their chances just based on the skill level they have and the results they’ve posted all season. The middle order of the forwards does need tweaking, and I think the coaching staff has something to work with Henrique and Frederic. They along with J. Skinner could be the right mix, as others like Brown, Janmark and Arvidsson have struggled playing against Florida’s middle order and their systems. I’d also strongly consider fading Kane’s minutes as he’s been a bit of a liability with the penalties he takes and the lack of positive input he’s had on the game. Florida seems to have figured the Oilers depth out, so it doesn’t hurt to make adjustments, especially when a lot of the Oilers forwards have experience playing with one another over the course of the regular season.

On the back end, Bouchard continues to shine with whoever he plays with. Walman and Klingberg have also performed well, but Klingberg’s on-ice results are difficult to ignore. I would expect him back in the lineup after a game-off, especially with Stecher not being able gain the coaching staff’s trust in game four. And not much to add about Nurse as he remains a liability and shouldn’t see top pairing minutes. He’s better suited in a depth role at this point as he tends to drag down the numbers of every Oilers player he’s on the ice with.

And here’s how the Panthers skaters have performed over the four games.

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The Oilers are doing a decent job at limiting the chances generated by the top line players like Reinhart and Verhaege, as well as Barkov whose performance numbers and results have been poor compared to what we’d expect from him. The Panthers second and third lines, which play a lot against Brown and Kane, as well as Nurse, have really taken advantage to control the flow of play and scoring chances. It’s clear that they’re using this middle order to target the Oilers weakest players. On the back-end, the Oilers should continue to target Forsling and Ekblad, as they tend to be on the ice for a lot of chances against. The Panthers are distributing the ice time quite well amongst the defencemen, but I do wonder if this group will wear out first as they take a lot of hits and haven’t rotated in a seventh defenceman yet.

Here’s how the goalies have performed this series, split by even-strength (5v5) and penalty kill and sorted by goals-saved-above-average. Pickard is giving the Oilers decent/average goaltending, which is more than what Skinner can provide at this point. As mentioned above, the Oilers goaltending has been fine at even-strength. It’s really on the penalty kill where they’ve struggled, with Pickard giving the team a better chance at winning games.

We’ll see what the Oilers coaching staff comes back with in game five in terms of lineup decisions and tactics.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Bearing off

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This has to be it, right? The Edmonton Oilers get a second chance to win the Stanley Cup starting on Wednesday night against the Florida Panthers, which should be a very entertaining series. Both clubs have been dominant this post-season, and it felt kind of inevitable that they’d be going at it again. Pip count is near identical, now it comes down to the rolls – and hopefully things swing the Oilers way.

Here’s how the two clubs have done at even-strength this post-season. Both have dominated the scoresheets, each hovering around a near identical 62 percent goal-share. And their success has been supported by strong shot-share numbers – no surprise there.

What stands out here is the fact that the Oilers goaltending has been slightly better at even-strength this post-season, with the Panthers hovering closer to league average levels. Bobrovsky had a solid regular season, ranking 15th among 58 goalies who played at least 1,000 minutes in the regular season with a 91.9 percent save percentage. And a +8.53 goals-saved-above-average. Skinner, meanwhile, ranked 46th in save percentage (90.2 percent) and 48th in GSAA (-8.80). What that tells me is that Bobrovsky put together longer stretches of success in the regular season than Skinner – but it remains to be seen which one can do it first in the finals.

Both teams are also getting good results from across their rosters – scoring goals with and without their star players on the ice. Without one or both of McDavid or Draisaitl at even-strength, so about 50 percent of the team’s total time, the Oilers have posted a goal-share of 67.74 percent (21 goals for, 10 goals against). And on the other side, without one or both of Barkov or Tkachuk, about 46 percent of the team’s total time, the Panthers have also posted an exceptional goal-share of 66.67 percent (20 goals for, 10 against).

Where the Panthers depth players have an edge over Edmonton is their possession numbers, as measured by the Corsi For percentage (i.e., unblocked shot attempts). Edmonton tends to struggle controlling the overall flow of play, especially with Nurse on the ice with the depth players. In those situations (i.e., Nurse without one or both of McDavid or Draisaitl), the results have been good (9 GF/5 GA), but the team’s shot share metrics like Corsi and Expected Goals hover around 45 percent.

Here’s how the Panthers skaters have fared this post-season at even-strength, sorted by ice time, with a basic heat map applied to show how each player compares to their teammates.

While there are some players riding the PDO wave, like the Lundell/Marchand/Luostarinen line (who have been excellent), there are others like Reinhart who have the potential to see their scoring pop at evens. Reinhart’s on-ice shot-share numbers have been excellent, but he has only broken-even in terms of goals. Suspect the Panthers coaching staff will heavily target Darnell Nurse, as well as Henrique, Brown and Janmark. As I wrote recently, the Oilers tend to allow a lot of shots with these players on the ice – a trend that has continued since the regular season.

Should also note that the Panthers powerplay has only been alright. They’ve scored at a rate of 8.47 goals per hour, which is close to what they had in the regular season. They’re struggling to generate shots, sitting at a rate of 38 shots per hour, which is one of the lowest among all teams this post-season, and well below where they were in the regular season. The Panthers penalty kill on the other hand has been excellent. They’ve only allowed seven this post-season (a rate of 3.90 goals against per hour), which is one of the best in the league and half of what they allowed in the regular season. They’ve done an excellent job suppressing shots and making life easier for their goaltender – something the Oilers powerplay will have to figure out right away.

As I said at the top, both clubs have moved into their home boards and are in excellent position to win the game – but it’ll come down to the rolls. A bounce here and there, and hopefully someone getting the hot hand should allow Edmonton to bear off and win their first championship since 1990.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Covering Blots: Digging into whether Darnell Nurse has been good enough for the Oilers this season

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Defenceman Darnell Nurse has had a lot of highs and lows throughout his season (and career) with the Edmonton Oilers.

Early in the campaign, he posted some of the team’s worst on-ice shot-share numbers and goal-differentials. But by early December we saw his performance and results turn around after the coaching staff played him more often with Leon Draisaitl, who has had an MVP-level season. As the year progressed, Nurse made some great plays and contributed on the score sheet. But that would again be followed up with blunders in his own zone, leading to opponents sustaining pressure and generating scoring chances. His game has recently improved, which is great considering the playoffs are coming up. But it remains to be seen if he can continue playing at this level.

This all led me to a pretty straightforward question: is Darnell Nurse having a good season?

To determine if he meets the threshold of “good”, I produced some basic criteria for a defenceman that is being paid $9 million per year:

  • Must be playing regular minutes against the other team’s top competition at even-strength (5v5), and top minutes on the penalty kill.
  • Must have a positive impact on the team’s shot and scoring chance differentials at even-strength (5v5).
  • Must have a positive impact when playing with the team’s depth players, as in when McDavid and Draisaitl are on the bench.

There could be other criteria, but what I have above are things that correlate to scoring goals and winning games. It’s basically the bare minimum.

Ice-time and Usage

Nurse is currently averaging just under 23 minutes a game this season (in all situations), which ranks third among Oilers defencemen. And he ranks first in the average number of even-strength minutes (19 minutes a game). What’s interesting is that 25 percent of his even-strength minutes this season are against elite competition, according to the methodology used by Puck IQ. This is a drop from last season when Nurse played 30 percent of his minutes against top competition.

The table below shows a steady decline in Nurse’s proportion of ice time against elite-level competition (orange bars) throughout his career, as he was over 40 percent just three seasons ago. The 25 percent proportion he has this season would be one of the lowest in his career, indicating that the coaching staff is well aware of his deficiencies, and are actively trying to put him in a position to succeed.

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Another thing worth considering is the steady decline in Nurse’s minutes on the penalty kill. Nurse is averaging below two minutes a game this season, which is a significant drop off from the last four seasons when he was regularly on the top penalty-kill unit. The graph below shows his average ice time per season over the course of his career, and is a good indicator of the trust the coaching staff has in the player.

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Nurse’s Impact at 5v5

Below are Nurse’s relative-to-team shot-differential numbers by season. I tend to use Corsi, a proxy for puck possession, and Fenwick and Expected goals as a proxy for scoring chances.

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This is going to be the third straight season where the Edmonton Oilers have seen their shot and scoring chances numbers take a hit when Nurse has been on the ice.

Yes, he does play a lot of minutes and sees top competition. But as we saw above, those hard minutes are being reduced. He’s clearly not a player that can be relied on to drive play, and he’ll need to be with a strong defensive partner and high-end forwards as much as possible for him to provide value to the team at even-strength. Which leads to the next criteria.

Impact when playing with depth players

When the Oilers have Nurse on the ice with the depth players, so no McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, the Oilers have posted some pretty poor performance numbers and results. Their Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals For percentage both drop down to 46 percent when the depth players are playing with Nurse, which, as mentioned above, is why the coaching staff was okay with getting Nurse away from them earlier in the season.

The good news is that the results have been good, with a goal differential of plus-four (goal share of 55 percent), but that’s been largely luck-driven. The team tends to play less often with the puck when Nurse is out there with depth players, so it’s hard to have confidence in these results over the long run.

Final Thoughts

While we sometimes see some great plays from Nurse and his name on the scoresheet, it’s hard to ignore his usage, performance and results over the course of the full season. Expectations are rightfully high for the player, and unfortunately, he’s not meeting some basic criteria that correlates with winning games. The hope is that he can play well into the playoffs, but it’s hard to have confidence when we look at the data over a full season.

Based on his salary and role on the team, you would expect Darnell Nurse to be one of the best defencemen in the league, though you could make the argument that he might not even be the third-best defenceman on the Oilers. That’s a problem for management to address this off-season.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, PuckIQ

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Drawbacks of the Edmonton Oilers having two five-man units

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I recently wrote about how the Edmonton Oilers have recently been getting a lot more out of defenceman Darnell Nurse, as his performance numbers and results have been significantly better than earlier this season. And it’s largely driven by the fact that he’s being deployed a lot more often with Leon Draisaitl’s line. Full article is at Oilersnation.

This had me wondering if deploying Nurse exclusively with Draisaitl’s line and continuing to deploy the Bouchard/Ekholm tandem almost exclusively with McDavid’s line actually makes sense. The results should be great for those two five-man units as there’s plenty of skill and talent there. But wouldn’t that make the rest of the Oilers roster easier to exploit at even-strength?

Looking at the on-ice data, it appears as though the Oilers have recently been exposed, making them an easier target for team’s with depth and skill spread across the lineup.

In the last ten games, without the McDavid/Bouchard/Ekholm set or the Draisaitl/Nurse set, the Oilers have posted the following numbers at even-strength (5v5):

  • Corsi for percentage: 40.74%
  • Expected goals for percentage: 37.24%
  • Goals for percentage: 40.00% (4 goals for, 6 goals against)

The Oilers have played 138 minutes without their two five-man units, which was about 28 percent of the team’s total time in the last ten games. Two concerns with that:

  • The star players are playing a lot more, likely because the Oilers coaching staff urgently needed to make some ground in the standings. I’d expect their minutes to taper off eventually as the season wears on and to stay fresh for the playoffs. But if the depth players are constantly getting outscored, who knows.
  • That’s a good chunk of time that another team could target and exploit, and make life difficult for Edmonton. The Oilers third and fourth lines do a decent job defending, but they generate and score a lot less.

What’s also interesting is how the team’s depth players (i.e., the team without their two five-man units) are impacting the team’s overall shot-share numbers (Corsi For percentage) as well as their share of expected goals.

This graph shows the Oilers Corsi For percentage, with score effects factored in (solid line), over rolling ten game segments. They were at one point one of the best teams in the league, hovering around the 55 percent mark. But it’s gradually declined closer to the break-even mark.

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And this graph shows the Oilers expected goals share, which is trending even worse. Sitting below 50 percent in the last ten games is a little alarming. And it wouldn’t be surprising if their actual results at even-strength start to slip in the coming weeks.

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I don’t think there’s a quick, internal solution here either. Having Nurse play more often with the third and fourth lines isn’t going to work as we know the numbers have been poor in those situations. Plus he’s playing some of his best hockey right now, and I doubt he’d want to play fewer minutes with the star players. My guess is the Oilers will need to give their third pairing an offensive boost, which the Oilers appear to be addressing by acquiring Alec Regula off waivers (draft profile here). It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out and if the third and fourth lines, along with the third defence pair, can improve their on-ice numbers at even-strength.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

The redeployment of Darnell Nurse is leading to some of his best hockey for the Oilers

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The Edmonton Oilers made significant progress in November and now have 32 points in 27 games—a points percentage of 0.593 that ranks seventh in the Western Conference and fourth in the division. Their first ten games of the season really set them back (4-5-1), as they were, at one point, 13th in the conference and only ahead of San Jose in the Pacific.

There are plenty of reasons for their resurgence, but one player in particular who has helped turn things around is defenceman Darnell Nurse. He’s been more noticeable recently (for good reasons) making some great plays on Saturday night against St. Louis and helping set up Corey Perry with a nifty pass for the opening goal.

Nurse had really been struggling early on this season, especially at even-strength (5v5). In 171 minutes over the first ten games of the year (up until October 30), he had a 25 percent on-ice goal-share (on the ice for three goals for and nine goals against). And he was posting some of the worst shot-share numbers on the team as opponents would more often outshoot and outchance the Oilers with Nurse on the ice. What really stood out in those first ten games was how almost every forward on the Oilers was posting better on-ice shot-share numbers when they were playing away from him (i.e., without Nurse on the ice), as Nurse’s performance was really dragging his teammates down.

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Since those first ten games, however, Nurse has been posting significantly better numbers with the team doing a better job controlling the flow of play and scoring chances with him on the ice. His on-ice shot-share numbers at even-strength are all above 53 percent and some of the best numbers on the team. The best part is that his actual results (i.e., goal-share/goal-differentials) have been excellent, as the team has posted a goal-share of 82 percent — nine goals for, two goals against with Nurse on the ice. That goal-share isn’t sustainable and will gradually decline, but his underlying shot-share numbers indicate that the Oilers are more likely to outscore opponents with Nurse on the ice if he continues to perform at this level.

Now this turnaround didn’t happen automatically, and it appears there have been some very strategic adjustments made by the Oilers coaching staff. There’s a lot of pressure on this team this season to win games and make a deep playoff run. And to also maintain the value of their players, especially those on heavy, long-term deals like Nurse. So, it behooves the coaching staff to recognize problems, find potential solutions to improve their odds of winning games and have the courage to carry through on them.

One solution to the Nurse performance problem has been more ice time with Leon Draisaitl.

As I had written about in late October, Nurse played a lot of his even-strength minutes with the depth forwards in the first ten games of the season – specifically the third and fourth lines. Of the 171 minutes Nurse was deployed for, about 35 percent was with Adam Henrique and 32 percent was with the fourth line (basically when McDavid, Draisaitl or Henrique weren’t on the ice). About 23 percent was with Leon Draisaitl and Nurse played the least often with McDavid’s line, as that top line has exclusively been deployed with the Evan Bouchard/Mattias Ekholm pairing – a five-man unit pretty much all season.

Since those first ten games Nurse’s deployment has significantly changed, with more of his time being spent with Draisaitl, and whoever is on the second line, and less time with the third and fourth lines. The table below splits Nurse’s season between his first ten games (up until October 30) and the last fourteen games (between October 31 and December 7). Note that Nurse did miss a few games with a head injury.

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What we see here is that Nurse’s overall proportion of ice time with Draisaitl has significantly increased from about 23 percent in the first ten games to just under 40 percent in the last fourteen games – essentially creating a second five-man unit for the coaching staff to deploy. Nurse’s proportion of ice time with Henrique has dropped from 34 percent to 26 percent. And his time with the fourth-line players dropped from 33 percent to just under 11 percent.

This re-adjustment of Nurse’s deployment makes a lot of sense as he’s now playing more often with a second line who he was performing well within the first ten games of the season. One of my findings back in late October was that while Nurse dragged the performance numbers of most of the forwards down, his numbers remained respectable with Draisaitl, Podkolzin and Arvidsson – the group that basically formed the second line. So far things are going well as Nurse is not only performing well in his increased minutes with Draisaitl and the second line, but also playing much better in the minutes with the depth players.

It’d be worth asking the Oilers coaching staff if this actually was a strategic plan to help Nurse’s performance numbers improve. And if players like Nurse, who are accustomed to playing with high-end players tend to play down to the level of their linemates. My thought is when a defenceman like Nurse is out with a fourth line, for example, they may be conserving their energy and risk-taking for when they get to play with higher-end linemates, but that’s something a coach or player can speak to.

For now, it’s interesting to see how a coaching staff has adjusted a player’s deployment, and potentially used data and underlying shot-share numbers to assist with decision-making. Recognizing deficiencies, identifying solutions, and having the courage to carry them out is critical for a team pushing for championship. Hopefully, there’s more to come – especially for a roster that hasn’t quite reached its potential yet.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.

Tracking the Western conference – As of November 30, 2024

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Much better results from the Edmonton Oilers this month as they moved from tenth in the west to seventh currently sitting with a points percentage of 0.583. They finished November with a record of 8-4-1, and ranked fourth in the league in terms of points percentage (0.654) only behind Minnesota, Toronto and Washington. What’s interesting is that their goal-differential during this recent stretch has only been even (28 goals for, 28 goals against). Considering their strong shot-share numbers, it probably should have been better. Could have also used some better goaltending. But all that matters for now are the points being accumulated, and the rise in the standings.

Below are the current even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

We’re starting to see teams fall into their places, just based on what their shot share numbers have been like. For example, Edmonton and Colorado had good shot-share numbers last month and ranked poorly. But things have turned around for both clubs in the last month, and they’ve gained ground in the west. And we’ve seen teams like Calgary and Anaheim who were getting outshot regularly but getting good results last month, start to crash down back to earth.

We’re also starting to see which teams have issues to address in net, especially those with championship aspirations. Edmonton, Colorado, Vegas and Vancouver may need to keep an eye on the goalie market, and it’ll be interesting to see which of them can turn things around.

Edmonton and Colorado also have their even-strength scoring issues to address, as both rank near the bottom the league when it comes to finishing chances. Colorado is also relying heavily on their special teams to bail their even-strength play out.

Also do wonder if we’ll see Winnipeg and especially Vegas fall in the standings, as both clubs have had issues controlling the flow of play, and rely heavily either on their goaltending (Winnipeg) or ability to finish chances (Vegas).

And I do think we’ll see Utah start to climb up. They’re posting solid shot-share numbers and have one of the best even-strength goal-shares in the league. The issue for them is that their special teams have been terrible. Their powerplay is generating very few chances and goals. And their penalty kill allows one of the highest rates of shots against, and is relying heavily on their goaltending to allow an average rate of goals against. If they can figure out special teams, they could be very good.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Glossary:

  • Points-percentage (Point%) – The total points accumulated divided by the points that were available, including extra time.
  • Corsi for percentage (CF%) – The proportion of all the shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., corsi for/(corsi for + corsi against). This is used as a proxy for possession and is the best at predicting a team’steam’s future share of goals (GF%). (Source: Hockey Great Tapes – Draglikepull)
  • Fenwick for percentage (FF%) – The proportion of all the unblocked shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Fenwick for/(Fenwick for + aenwick against). This is used as a proxy for shot quality and considers shot blocking a repeatable skill.
  • Expected goals for percentage (xGF%) – This is a weighting placed on every unblocked shot based on the probability of the shot becoming a goal. This depends on the type of shot, location and uses historical shot and goals data to come up with the probability for each unblocked shot.
  • Goals for percentage (GF%) – The proportion of all the goals that the team scored and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Goals for/(Goals for + goals against).
  • Shooting percentage (SH%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal that became goals (i.e., total goals divided by the total shots on goal).
  • Save percentage (SV%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal against that were saved (i.e., 1-(totals goals allowed divided by the total shots on goal against)).

Confidence levels

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The Edmonton Oilers currently rank 16th in the league with a 0.545 points percentage, and have been pretty mid at even-strength (5v5). Their goal differential has been steadily improving, but they’re currently at -3 (43 goals for, 46 goals against). They’re only shooting at 7.05 percent (26th in the league) and have a team save percentage of 90.25 percent (23rd in the league). Note that the league average shooting percentage over the last three seasons has been 8.55 percent and the save percentage has been 91.47 percent. More on that in a second.

The Oilers are currently posting some excellent shot-share numbers, near the top of the league when it comes to critical metrics like Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals For percentage. So in a perfect world, their current goal-share of 48.31 percent eventually reaches somewhere around 53 to 55 percent, which is around where they were last season and the prior three seasons. Getting there is going to require the team and save percentage bouncing back. But how much confidence should we have in one or both of those things happening?

Based just on what I’ve seen from the Oilers, I have a lot more confidence in the team’s shooting percentage turning around. They have the top end talent, they have some depth pieces who have a good track record of scoring goals. And they’ve been relatively healthy, but we’ll wait to see what the long-term prognosis is for Hyman and Arviddson. The goaltending on the other hand has been pretty suspect for a while now, and there’s been enough mediocre stretches to indicate that goaltending is never going to be truly elite. But are there numbers to back this up?

First, here’s a look at the Oilers cumulative team shooting percentage at even-strength this season and last season (2023/24). The gray line across represents the league average shooting percentage from the previous three seasons (2021-2024). What stands out here is that while the Oilers didn’t do a great job converting their chances early on last season, they eventually improved and were above league average rates for the most part. Not sure if the Oilers can replicate that this season, but with the talent up front, and a decent supporting cast, it’s more than likely.

Goaltending on the other hand had some issues last season, and the best they could ever reach was league average. Not a lot of times was the goaltending one of the league’s best last season, so it’s hard to expect them to steal games this year or go on a long stretch of high-end goaltending. Especially since it’s the same two goalies as last season. The most we can reasonably expect from Skinner and Pickard is league-average, and a lot has to break right even for that.

I do wonder what the Oilers front office is thinking and what they have more confidence in bouncing back: the team save percentage or the team shooting percentage? It’s clear both areas have cost them wins this season and there’s a sense that it’s the offensive side of things that have management more concerned. My thought is that the goaltending is what needs an upgrade, and hopefully soon considering the high expectations for the team.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Here’s what’s behind Jeff Skinner’s early-season struggles

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It’s been a tough start to the season for Edmonton Oilers forward Jeff Skinner.

In his first seventeen games since signing a one-year, $3 million deal with the Oilers in the summer, Skinner has scored three goals and made three assists, all at even-strength. His on-ice goal-differential at even-strength is currently -5 (6 goals for, 11 goals against), which translates to a 35 percent goals-for percentage that currently ranks second last among Edmonton’s forwards. Considering he’s played the sixth most minutes on the team (217) and ranks sixth in average ice time per game at even-strength (12.79), his results are a problem that’s hard to ignore.

Over the last few games, the coaching staff has started to sit Skinner more often at even-strength. In the last two games, Skinner has averaged less than nine minutes, which is about 17 percent of the Oilers total even-strength time.  That’s well below the previous fifteen games where he’s averaged about 13 minutes a game, and 26 percent of the Oilers total even-strength time. The table below shows Skinner’s proportion of ice time per game in blue and the actual ice time per game in orange.

A graph showing how Jeff Skinner's ice time and proportion of ice as an Edmonton Oiler has been gradually declining at even-strength.

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There are a couple of major issues with Skinner that have likely played a role in his decreased ice time.

One, Skinner just isn’t producing at the level and consistency that management was probably expecting from him. He’s scored three times on 44 shots so far – which is a shooting percentage of 6.82 percent. That’s well below the 10.98 shooting percentage he’s posted over his previous five regular seasons, and the 10.65 percent he’s posted over his fourteen-year career.  The Oilers are currently near the bottom of the league in terms of team shooting percentage (6.68 percent) and are relying on Skinner to help turn those even-strength results around.

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The other issue is that Skinner’s on-ice numbers at even-strength, relative to his team’s numbers, have been poor so far. Corsi (or shot attempts) and Expected Goals help us understand how well the team does at controlling the flow of play and out-chancing opponents with specific players on the ice. And it helps us uncover who could be helping drive play and opportunities for a team, and who might be dragging the team down.

Skinner would currently fall under this latter category as the team is posting an Expected Goals For percentage of 52.45 percent with him on the ice, which isn’t bad. But his team’s share of Expected Goals jumps to 57.98 percent when he’s on the bench. Below is a table with all of the Oilers’ forwards on-ice relative to team numbers, sorted by average ice time per game. A basic heat map is applied to each metric (green is good, red is bad) to give a sense of how each player compares to their teammates.

A table showing each Edmonton Oilers forward's relative to team numbers at even-strength this season.

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One issue with Skinner is that the team allows a significantly higher number of shots and chances against whenever he’s on the ice. For instance, without him on the ice, the Oilers allow about 23 shots against per hour. But when Skinner is on the ice, this rate jumps by about 25% to 30 shots against per hour. He’s one of the worst defensive forwards on the team, which isn’t overly surprising considering his previous teams have often allowed more shots when he’s on the ice. The difference in prior seasons was that he would help drive more offence and generate chances. But since he’s not having the same impact and the fact that his shooting percentage is down, he’s not providing a whole lot of value for the Oilers.

Worth noting that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is also posting similar on-ice numbers as Skinner at even-strength, as the team tends to see a lot of chances against when he’s deployed. And it should probably be addressed by the coaching staff, considering he gets a lot of time in the top six with the star players. But because Nugent-Hopkins is on the first powerplay and kills penalties and has a +1 goal differential at even-strength, his underlying issues are likely going to be overlooked. At least for now.

As for Skinner, it’s understandable why the coaching staff has recently cut his minutes. His defensive play this season has been an ongoing issue, and it’s not just a couple of bad plays here and there that have led to this situation. Hopefully, there’s a plan in place to squeeze as much value out of Skinner as possible. But there’s also the harsh reality that Skinner’s defensive play has been a long-term issue over his previous seasons. And considering his age and the fact that he’s played over 1,000 NHL games, it’s hard to expect his defensive numbers to improve anytime soon.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at Oilersnation.