Tonight should be fun.

If there’s any key takeaways so far, it’s that the post-season is a chaotic tournament where anything is possible. As long as you make it to the playoffs, you can do some damage. Injuries, hot streaks, cold streaks, bad bounces – these are all factors at play in the post-season and can derail any team.

This year’s playoffs is another reminder that the Oilers, even with McDavid at the helm, aren’t guaranteed a title. All we can ask for is for management to establish a proper window by building a strong roster, and put the team in a position to do well. From there, it’s anyone’s guess as to what happens in the playoffs.

A couple things that have stood out for me this series. First a quick breakdown of the 5v5 numbers over the six games.

Edmonton	Even-strength (5v5)	Anaheim
275 (44.3%)	Shot attempts	346 (55.7%)
133 (40.7%)	Shots	194 (59.3%)
141	Scoring Chances	170
13	Goals	14
92.8%	Save percentage	90.2%
9.77%	Shooting percentage	7.22%

A big reason why the Oilers are in a game seven has been the play of Cam Talbot. He’s had his moments, but as it sits today, the Oilers have the best team save percentage in the second round. Anaheim on the other hand hasn’t had as strong goaltending as they did in the regular season, ranking 7th among the eight teams. And it’s been their goaltender’s play on the penalty kill, which takes me to my next point.

The Oilers powerplay has been dynamite in the second round, scoring at a rate of 7.41 goals per 60, first among all the second round teams. They’re scoring around the same rate they were in the regular season (7.72 GF/60, 6th in the league), converting 15.2% of their powerplay shots against the Ducks into goals, which is only slightly higher than what they were converting in the regular season (14.4%).

They’ve also maintained a very good rate of unblocked shot attempts (i.e., Fenwicks) per hour. In the regular season, they finished 10th with 75.3 FF/60. Against the Ducks, they’re down slightly, sitting at a rate of 72.62. What this tells us is that their powerplay is good, and it’s success is sustainable.

Worth noting that the Ducks penalty kill in the regular season allowed the 10th highest rate of unblocked shot attempts against and relied heavily on their goaltending. Thanks to a 90.2% save percentage, the Ducks finished the regular season with the 4th best penalty kill unit. Now that their goaltending is sliding a bit, their penalty kill has been exposed for what it really is: mediocre.

Back to 5v5. Here’s how the Ducks forwards have done against the Oilers so far, ranked by Corsi For%.

Player	TOI	CF%
Antoine Vermette	70.32	60.00
Rickard Rakell	109.88	59.92
Corey Perry	85.13	59.78
Andrew Cogliano	74.25	59.38
Ryan Getzlaf	112.82	58.75
Jakob Silfverberg	87.08	58.29
Ondrej Kase	2.05	57.14
Ryan Kesler	90.70	56.44
Nick Ritchie	57.65	49.15
Patrick Eaves	44.15	47.73
Logan Shaw	40.78	47.50
Nicolas Kerdiles	18.45	45.95
Chris Wagner	49.90	44.83
Nate Thompson	44.87	42.25

 

Have to wonder if potentially losing Nate Thompson is really a big deal for the Ducks. While the team as a whole is crushing the Oilers in Corsi For%, the Ducks post a 42.25% share of shot attempts with him on the ice. This is also a really good reason why the Oilers need to have offence on all four lines, so that they can expose these types of weaknesses. Draisaitl is obviously a big part of the line combinations, but the depth players need to be better at 5v5.

Here’s how the Oilers forwards have done at 5v5, again ranked by CF%.

Player	TOI	CF%
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	79.77	51.37
Benoit Pouliot	63.55	50.39
Jordan Eberle	68.67	47.37
Patrick Maroon	94.02	46.22
Connor McDavid	98.67	44.30
David Desharnais	55.72	43.75
Leon Draisaitl	94.82	43.46
Drake Caggiula	62.40	42.62
Anton Slepyshev	68.80	41.55
Milan Lucic	85.55	40.70
Mark Letestu	65.03	40.00
Zack Kassian	60.50	38.46

You’d think if RNH ever breaks out of his slump, it would be tonight. He’s done well by the shot and possession metrics, but just can’t buy a goal. And if you’re wondering why the Ducks were okay with moving Perry up to the top line, it’s because they really don’t have to worry about the Oilers depth players.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

With Leon Draisaitl, there’s plenty to be excited about. He’s had a tremendous 2016/17 season, posting 77 points in 82 regular season games, 40 of which were at even-strength. And his 2.03 points per hour was third among Oiler forwards. In 12 playoff games, Draisaitl has a total of 16 points, 9 of which have come at even-strength, and a team leading rate of 3.09 points per hour.

This is obviously an asset that the team needs to have if they intend on building a championship.  Draisaitl has posted 128 points now in 154 regular season games over the past two regular seasons. Regardless if you think he’s a driver or a complementary winger, it’s clear he has NHL talent, which is incredibly encouraging considering he’s only 21 years old.

The issue for me is that the Oilers need to be careful not to overvalue him, or any other player for that matter. Managing the cap and allocating dollars efficiently is going to be critical. The last thing the Oilers want to do is limit their options when managing their roster, especially when a championship window is opening up for them. Flexibility is  going to be critical if the team wants to annually contend for a championship.

When it comes to Draisaitl, it’ll be important that the Oilers sign him long-term, but they should be trying to bring down his asking price. A few things worth noting when it’s negotiation time.

In the 2015/16 season, Draisaitl’s most common winger was Taylor Hall. In 878 minutes together at 5v5, the Oilers posted a Corsi For% of 51.6% (+3.88 rel), and more importantly a goal-share of 51.2% (+9.32 rel), as the Oilers outscored opponents 42-39. In the 159 minutes without Hall but with Draisaitl, the Oilers posted a Corsi For% of 53.55% (+4.43 rel) and a goal-share of 50% (+4.76 rel). Those are all well and good, but the fact is Draisaitl’s own offence disappeared without Hall as his winger. With Hall, Draisaitl put up 2.32 points per hour, but without him that scoring rate plummeted to 1.13. Worth noting that Draisaitl’s on-ice PDO was between 99 and 100 with and without Hall, so there weren’t any real percentages influencing the numbers. This was also Draisaitl’s first full season in the NHL, so it’s expected that this numbers would be influenced to some degree by other factors.

 

In the 2016/17 regular season, Draisaitl spent 670 minutes at even-strength with McDavid and absolutely killed it, as the Oilers posted a Corsi For% of 53.7% and a goal-share of 59.4%. But in over 500 minutes away from McDavid, the Oilers with Draisaitl on the ice posted a pretty weak Corsi For% of 47.9% and a goal-share of 44.2%, both numbers well below where the team needs to be. Draisaitl’s own rate of point production also took a hit going from 2.23 points per hour with McDavid on the ice with him to 1.80. That rate of point production without McDavid with him isn’t bad, but it’s worth noting that the team’s PDO was also at 105 in this scenario, meaning the Oilers may have been getting a little lucky.

The post-season has also been great for Draisaitl as he has continued playing the bulk of his minutes with McDavid. With Draisaitl on the ice, the Oilers have posted a 49.0% Corsi For%, and a goal-share of 70.6%, outscoring their opponents 12-5. What’s worth noting here is that Draisaitl’s on-ice shooting percentage is sitting at 14.0%, which is well above his regular season on-ice shooting percentage of 9.72%, and one of the highest among all forwards. The beauty of the playoffs is that there really isn’t enough time for a player’s on-ice percentages to regress towards their career averages, so I don’t expect Draisaitl’s numbers to crash. But when the team evaluates the player and the sustainability of offensive contributions, it’s important to look at things like PDO and confirm if a player’s numbers were real or not.

Signing Draisaitl to a long-term deal will be important for the Oilers as they build a championship contender. The concern should be whether or not Draisaitl can drive the secondary offence, and how the Oilers will build a roster around their young core.

Data: Hockey Analysis, Corsica Hockey

Something I touched on last night was how the Ducks have dominated the Oilers at 5v5 this series, outscoring them 12-6, and posting a Corsi For% of 55.5%. A big reason why the Oilers are in the series and tied with the Ducks is their powerplay and Talbot’s performance in game two.

Here’s a breakdown of the goal and shot-share the Oilers have posted in their four games against Anaheim.

What’s interesting is that while the Flames got swept in the first round by the Ducks, their event-shares were better than the Oilers over their four games.

The difference?

A shooting percentage of 1.94%(!), which is absurdly low (average is usually around 7-8% in the regular season), and some mediocre goaltending. They finished their series having been outscored 9-2. Side note: the Oilers currently have a 7.59% shooting percentage this series.

The Oilers have generated 1.95 goals/60 against Anaheim, while the Flames only generated 0.64. What’s worth noting is that the Flames allowed 2.87 goals against/60, while the Oilers have allowed 3.9 goals/60. The Oilers team save percentage (88.9%) in the second round has actually been worse than Calgary’s was in the first round (90.3%).

In terms of generating and allowing events against the Ducks, the Flames were the better team compared to Edmonton. The metric that jumps out for me is the rate of shots on goal each team allowed. The Oilers are allowing 35 per hour, while the Flames allowed 29.

The Oilers are fortunate to be in the series, considering their outputs. They’ll need a strong performance from their top line, and do a better job defending and suppressing shots.

And a friendly reminder: Anything can happen in the playoffs.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Playoffs have been a lot of fun so far. Couple notes.

Over their nine post-season games, the Oilers have been outscored 16-12 at even-strength (5v5), a goal-share of 42.86%, which ranks them 13th among the 16 playoff teams. They have a score-adjusted Corsi For% of 49.75, which ranks them 9th. But over the first three games of the second round, the Ducks have been the better possession team, controlling 55.7% of the shot attempts, and outscoring the Oilers 8-5. I fully appreciate the fact that the playoffs is a crap-shoot, and that anything can happen. I’d just be a little more confident if the Oiler’s goal-share and shot metrics were a little better.

The lack of calls against the Ducks has been frustrating. Anaheim finished the regular season with a penalty differential of -11, which was the 9th worst in the league. The Oilers on the other hand finished the regular season with a penalty differential of +11, which was 11th in the league. In the playoffs? The Oilers suddenly have the worst penalty differential among the 16 teams with -11. And the Ducks? They sit around the middle of the pack with a differential of 0. The league needs to be look into this, it makes no sense.

Goaltending has not been good for the Oilers against the Ducks. After finishing the first round against the Sharks with a 5v5 save percentage of 93.85%, 7th best among the 16 playoff teams, Talbot’s save percentage has dropped to 89.74%. To put things into perspective, the Flames, who were swept by the Ducks, posted a 5v5 save percentage of 90.32% in the first round against the same team. Worth noting that the Flames posted a 5v5 shooting percentage of 1.94% against the Ducks, while the Oilers currently have a reasonable 8.93% shooting percentage against the same team.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the five different line combinations the Oilers have used for at least 30 minutes at 5v5 this post-season, including their Corsi For%, Fenwick For%, Expected Goal% and actual goals for/against.

Line	TOI	CF%	FF%	xGF%	GF/GA
Lucic-RNH-Eberle	85.37	57.65	58.47	55.13	1-3
Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl	57.6	48.82	41.38	43.53	4-2
Caggiula-McDavid-Draisaitl	33.15	58.23	54.55	66.22	1-0
Caggiula-Letestu-Kassian	44.64	40.00	39.39	37.35	0-1
Pouliot-Desharnais-Slepyshev	46.43	46.51	50.00	53.82	2-0

The trio of Lucic-RNH-Eberle has played the most minutes together for the Oilers, and have Corsi For% of 57.65%, which ranks them 8th among the 45 line combinations that have played at least 30 minutes together in the post-season. Not only have the had great possession numbers, but they’re also getting a higher share of the quality chances. This is pretty impressive considering they’ve been playing tough match-ups (Thornton/Pavelski in round one, and now Getzlaf in round two). Unfortunately for them, the results haven’t come yet, as they’ve posted a shooting percentage of 2.13%. You’d think that their percentages eventually regress towards their career norms, but there really isn’t a lot of time in the playoffs for things to correct themselves. I’d keep this trio together, but would understand if the coaching staff made a tweak. One other thing worth noting is how good of a job this trio has done drawing penalties. They’re +4 together in terms of penalty differentials, which is the best among the 45 line combinations.

The Desharnais/Pouliot tandem has been playing better lately, so I would keep them together. Pouliot has also been very good on the penalty kill, so it really isn’t worth scratching him. The players I’d be worried about are Letestu and Kassian. I understand Letestu’s value on the powerplay, and would keep him in the line-up. But that line just isn’t working at 5v5, and is often allowing a lot of shots by the other team’s depth players.

One last thing: I wanted to see how the Oilers differentials have been at 5v5 over the nine games to see if there were any patterns.

The Oilers have yet to post good underlying numbers against the Ducks, which has me somewhat concerned. Their goaltending hasn’t been good enough in the second round, but maybe Talbot has another bounce back game on Wednesday and steals one. What also stands out in the graph above is how well the Oilers bounce back after a loss. After both losses against San Jose, the Oilers dominated play in the following game. Anaheim is a different team and might have better game plan, and health, than San Jose. But I do like the Oilers chances of putting together a better effort in game four.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Corsica Hockey