The Oilers have gone on a nice run as of late, going  6-2-2 in their last 10 games. They have outscored opponents 33-24 in all situations, “improving” to a -22 overall goal differential (they were -35 not too long ago).

However while the results have been positive, there are some underlying issues that are being masked by the incredible play of Connor McDavid. He’s been on an amazing run competing for the Art Ross trophy, putting up 19 points in his last 10 games. Fifteen of those 19 points are primary (9 goals, 6 first assists). And of the 33 goals scored by the team, McDavid has been on the ice for 21 of them.

What’s concerning are the team’s shot shares in their last ten games, including shot attempts (Corsi For%, serving as a proxy for possession time), the unblocked shot attempts, which measure shot quality (Fenwick For%) and scoring chances (Scoring Chances For%) as defined by Natural Stat Trick. The main reason we look at shot-shares is to determine (a) if the results are real or not and (b) if the results are sustainable. There are never any guarantees when it comes to predicting the future goal-share, but we know that hockey teams improve their chances of outscoring opponents when they’re regularly outshooting them.

It’s really important to temper expectations when the goal-share isn’t quite in line with the shot-share (Corsi For%), which have been adjusted for score effects. And it’s critical that teams recognize that they might be on a bit of a heater and to not make any drastic decisions, especially when the PDO is above 104. And as mentioned above, it’s really the play of McDavid that’s driving the Oiler’s success.

Digging into things a bit, the recent on-ice numbers for Darnell Nurse, Jujhar Khaira and Milan Lucic stand out for me.

If we look at the numbers for the Oiler’s defencemen, we see that Nurse ranks last when it comes to Corsi For%. Now ranking last could be understandable for someone like Nurse. He’s been playing quite a bit and the coaching staff doesn’t hesitate to play him in different situations against the other team’s top lines. But a CF% below 45% is cause for concern.

What’s rather alarming is how Nurse has been trending downwards for some time. He had a really good start this season, but he hasn’t had as great of an impact as it’s been perceived.

It’s an important off-season for both the team and Nurse as the young defenceman is a restricted free agent this summer. While management could sign him to a long term deal, past his UFA years, it might be wiser to sign him to a short-term bridge deal to take him closer to his UFA eligibility. The risk with the latter option is that while the team saves some money in the short-term, Nurse could have a great season, driving up the cost for the Oilers to retain his services. Based on some of the recent underlying on-ice numbers, I wouldn’t bet on it. We know that individual player’s on-ice shooting and save percentages regress towards the mean, indicating that Nurse’s recent goal-share numbers (and 109 PDO) isn’t likely to continue.

Another player whose performance is worth addressing is young Jujhar Khaira. Among all of the forwards, his on-ice Corsi For% has been the worst on the team over the last 10 games, which is troubling considering that he’s been relegated to the fourth line playing against lesser competition.

I’ve already expressed my concern with him and Ryan Strome centering their own lines, so I won’t delve into this too much. Neither player has been very good as the sole center on a line, and have been much more effective when on a line together. It’s understandable that the coaching staff wants to use this last stretch of games to test what they have in Khaira, but the results speak for themselves. There’s definitely a future for him on the Oilers – I just don’t think it’s as a full-time centerman.

To leave things on a positive note, it’s worth pointing out the improved play of Milan Lucic. The results have not been there, no question. But his on-ice Corsi For% at even-strength has gradually improved.

It’s funny, I had expressed concern earlier in the year when he was producing well and riding a 104.6 PDO, but his Corsi For% was poor. Now it’s the opposite: he can’t buy a goal even those all of his rel-numbers (Corsi, Fenwick, Scoring Chances) in his last ten games have been excellent.

What might be helping his cause is his reduced ice time. A quick glance at the Oilers forwards shows a gradual decline in playing time for Lucic (green line in the graph below), which may be a reflection of either his poor production or a tactical decision by the coaching staff.

Whatever the case is, Lucic appears to be doing everything he can to help the Oilers, but the results just haven’t been there. While we could write off Lucic, and hope that the Oilers can somehow get rid of his contract, we could use this assessment period to confirm that Lucic can still be a useful player, but maybe in a lesser role. Obviously, the dollars don’t make sense – you need $6 million players to have a positive on-ice impact. But if the team can’t efficiently divest themselves of the contract, they need to somehow maximize the player’s full potential.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Barlowe Analytics, Hockey Viz

Something I came across recently was just how poor the Oilers possession numbers have been and how they’ve been trending downwards. There’s been some optimism around the team as they had put together a somewhat respectable stretch, but their Corsi For percentage was 46.3%, with their Fenwick For percentage hovering around the same level (45.0%). (Link)

The other thing I found was just how badly the Oilers third and fourth line players were doing in terms of shot-share metrics, namely Ryan Strome and Jujhar Khaira. Now to me this isn’t that surprising. I put together a post earlier this month making a case for the two forwards to remain together on a line and dug into how they’d done as centers. Highly recommend reading that one first if you haven’t already. So for all the people into sports this is a really good news, and they can also go to sites online where they can purchase bets, such as rivalo and others.

• Related: Strome and Khaira – The SuperFan (2018, March 3)

In my opinion, neither is a great centerman on their own or without another centerman with them. But when they’re on the ice either together at even-strength (5v5) splitting duties this season, they’ve been just fine.

Strome and Khaira (2017/18)

What’s also worth noting is that general manager Peter Chiarelli views Strome as a good option for center, as discussed the day he was acquired from New York, and that it’s always helpful to load up on centers.

Chiarelli on whether Strome slots in at centre or wing: “If you can put two centres on a line it’s to your advantage. I think he’s a natural centre, but he can certainly rip a wrist shot so he’s quite good on the wing also.” (Source: Edmonton Journal)

Unfortunately for the Oilers, the coaching staff has been adamant for the last 12 games now to have Strome and Khaira away from each other and centering their own lines.

This all stems of course from McLellan’s desire to have his top three centermen, McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl, play in the top six. In the most recent stretch, McDavid has been playing with Nugent-Hopkins on the same line, with Draisaitl anchoring the second line. It’s understandable that a coach wants to have as much fire power together, but it’d make a lot more sense to spread the talent across three lines to really cause match-up issues for the opposing team.

Because of the coaching staff’s deployment tactics, two things are occurring: the team’s overall possession numbers haven’t been strong. And the on-ice numbers of both Strome and Khaira as they center their own lines have been horrible.

Over the last 12 games, the Oilers have gone 7-4-1, but that’s with an even-strength (5v5) goal-share of 44.9% (a -5 goal differential). So right away, we know this isn’t real. And we can also make a case that this recent success probably isn’t sustainable since their Corsi For percentage is 48.1%, and their Fenwick For percentage is 46.8%.

With Khaira or Strome on the ice centering their own lines, the team’s Corsi For percentage dips below 45%, with a higher rate of unblocked shot attempts against going way up, especially with Strome on the ice.

Looking at each player’s rolling 5-game Corsi For%, it’s pretty apparent that their on-ice numbers took a hit once they were split apart and trusted as centermen by the coaching staff.

If a coaches job is to put players in a position to succeed and improve the chances of winning games, then it behooves them to collect as much information as possible and deploy the best possible player combinations. And if things look fine on the surface and the team is winning, it’s even more critical to analyze and determine if the success is sustainable or not and make adjustments as needed.

It’s easy to dismiss criticism directed towards third and fourth line-type players. But as we’ve seen from other successful teams, depth is critical to be a contender. And while the Oilers are playing out a lost season and it makes sense to try out different players in different positions, it’s critical that they review the underlying numbers and the right information to know what the player’s true on-ice impact really is.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Barlowe Analytic

Prior to the game against Nashville on Thursday, head coach Todd McLellan had this to say when asked about potentially playing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the wing when he does return from injury. What stuck out for me wasn’t his thoughts on RNH, but his comments regarding Ryan Strome and Jujhar Khaira.

Quite frankly, I haven’t thought that far ahead. But once we get him back we’ll see where everybody else is. I like the fact the Ryan Strome is playing well down the middle. He’s played some of his best hockey over the last little bit. JJ Khaira has played quite well down the middle, so maybe we have our three and our four center. Now we can determine , we’re pretty sure we have our number one center  in Connor. What are we gonna do in that two hole? Does Leon go up on the wing. Does Nuge go on the wing. These are things we have to contemplate and take into consideration. I do believe that when Nuge does come back he’ll start where he’s familiar just so he can get his game back. (Source: Edmonton Oilers)

Now my first inclination is that Nugent-Hopkins should slot right back into center with McDavid and Draisaitl centering their own lines. I recently wrote about how well the Oilers did when they ran three good lines in December, and can only imagine the headaches it would cause opposing teams if they have to build a plan to play against a balanced offence.

Now say McLellan decides to have McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH in his top six, with one of Draisaitl or RNH playing wing. He’ll have his nuclear option of a McDavid-Draisaitl tandem, which has been an absolute killer (410 mins, 64.4% on-ice goal-share, 55.1% Corsi For percentage). And he can re-unite RNH with Lucic, who have a 56% on-ice goal-share together in 300 minutes this season, and a 50.6% Corsi For percentage.

This leaves Strome and Khaira as the other options for center. Neither player has been a full-time pivot this season, and they’ve also played together on the same line, making it a little tricky to figure out how each has done as a true centerman.

What I did was use Natural Stat Trick’s line combination tool to see how Khaira and Strome did when they weren’t on the ice together and when they didn’t have one of the other centers (McDavid, Draisaitl or RNH) with them. I could only use five players at a time, so I left Letestu out of the query for now – more on that after the table.

Ryan Strome barely played with Letestu. I found about 10 minutes where they were on the ice together, but that was across more than 10 different line combinations.

Of the 237 minutes Khaira played without Strome, McDavid, Draisaitl or RNH, 79 minutes were with Letestu. And when Khaira was with Letestu, the team’s Corsi For percentage was 51.2%, and they had a goal-share of 44.4%.

So based on my quick math, Strome has played about 285 minutes without another centerman on a line wit him, and has had poor on-ice results (48.0% CF, 47.0% GF). And Khaira has played about 158 minutes as a centerman, with his Corsi For percentage below 49.0% and an on-ice goal-share around 40%. If someone has a better way to strip out each player’s time as a true centerman this season, please let me know.

One last thing: Ryan Strome has looked good over the last little bit like Todd McLellan mentioned. But he’s also had an on-ice shooting percentage above 11%, with a PDO around 103 over the last 10 games. His on-ice Corsi For% has been around 47%, and his goal-share has been 50%. Something to keep in mind, especially when there are discussions around his RFA status and potentially a new contract this summer.

Something I hope the Oilers realize is that while Khaira and Strome haven’t been  that great as centers on their own, they have actually played really well together this season.

While the goal-share isn’t strong, thanks in large part to a poor on-ice save percentage, in 255 minutes together, they have a 53.7% Corsi For percentage. You could make the argument that Strome and Khaira did spend plenty of time with Draisaitl, and that would drive up their on-ice possession numbers and goal-share. But if you look at the other players that the tandem were on the ice with, you’d see that wasn’t necessarily the case.

We’re obviously dealing with small sample sizes here, but the on-ice shot share’s have been encouraging. Running with a Strome-Khaira tandem over the long run should net the team some results. But it’ll be on the coaching staff to demonstrate some patience and stick to the tactics and processes that are working well.

What I hope to see when Nugent-Hopkins return is one of two things:

• Have Draisaitl on McDavid’s wing with RNH centering the second line with Lucic and possibly Puljujaarvi. And have Strome and Khaira together on a third line with say Cammalleri. The fourth line can have Caggiula as center for all I care.
• Have McDavid and RNH center their own lines. And deploy Draisaitl with Strome and Khaira.

The key for me is to keep Strome and Khaira together, and not have them center their own lines in the bottom six. The underlying shot-numbers when they’ve played together are encouraging, especially when you consider how desperate the Oilers are for secondary scoring.

Data: Natural Stat Trick