The star forward is among the league leaders in points, but his production and on-ice numbers at even-strength are lower that expected. It’s critical for the coaching staff and management to figure out what’s going on with Draisaitl if they want their 5v5 numbers to improve.

There’s obviously a lot of team-wide issues right now for the Edmonton Oilers, as the club ranks fifth in the Pacific with a 0.526 points percentage and ninth in the western conference. Defensive play has been poor, the offence has dried up, and there’s plenty of questions about the roster construction and the potential internal solutions. It’ll be interesting to see how the coaching staff and management navigate things in such a high pressure season.

Even-strength (5v5) play is the biggest point of weakness for the club as they’re getting out-shot, out-chanced and out-scored regularly – ranking in the bottom third of the league when it comes to performance indicators that drive positive results. And it’ll need to improve if the Oilers want to keep up with the top teams in the league.

One player in particular that is currently struggling playing even-strength minutes is Leon Draisaitl. He’s a proven star in the league and can improve the team’s odds of winning games. And he’s among the league leader in points this season because of his dominance on the powerplay. But his even-strength numbers this season, including his personal numbers and his on-ice numbers, have been poor compared to his previous three seasons – and it’s part of the reason why the Oilers are struggling to win games.

Starting with his personal numbers, Draisaitl currently has nine even-strength points which ranks fourth on the Oilers – a points per hour rate of 1.85. That’s a drop from the 2.68 points per hour from his previous three seasons – a level that top line, star forwards typically produce at. Heading into this current season, Draisaitl’s rate of points ranked 17^th among over 500 forwards who played at least 1,000 minutes since 2019, a period in which he’s accumulated the third highest number of points in the league. His current rate of 1.85 ranks 131^st among 324 players who have played at least 200 minutes this year – not anywhere near where he should be considering his history.

What’s driving his drop in production is his individual rate of shots per hour which has decreased from 6.43 per hour over the last three seasons to 5.56. And his shooting percentage is also lower than expected, currently sitting at 14.81%. Considering his age and his talent, you would expect to see his rate of shots and his shooting percentage to gradually improve, resulting in better productivity over the course of the season. But there’s a couple other issues to consider.

One reason for his lower rate of shots per hour this season is the fact that the Oilers are spending a significant amount of time without the puck when he’s on the ice, as reflected by the team’s Corsi For percentage (a proxy for puck possession) of 42.83%. The team is also getting out-chanced more regularly when Draisaitl is on the ice with, as reflected by their 43.19% share of expected goals (a proxy for scoring chances and shot quality) – which again is a drop from the levels we’ve seen with him on the ice over the last three seasons. All of Draisaitl’s on-ice shot-share numbers (i.e., Corsi For%, Fenwick For%, Expected Goals For%) are some of the lowest on the team, only ahead of Holloway and Shore. And it’s on the defensive side of things where the Oilers are really struggling with Draisaitl, as they see more than a 17% increase in the rate of shot attempts, unblocked shot attempts and shots on goal against with their star forward on the ice. The rate of expected goals against this season – which factors in shot quality and scoring chances against – increases by 26% with Draisaitl on the ice, going from 2.78 per hour to 3.51.

Draisaitl’s poor on ice numbers at even-strength is pretty significant considering the expectations on him as a player and the team this season. The Oilers top six is supposed to be one of the best in the league, but it’s hard to accomplish anything when a star forward is struggling and the team is failing to control the flow of play and total scoring chances with him on the ice.

What’s worth noting is that Draisaitl is struggling with pretty much every linemate and defenceman on the Oilers, unable to post shot-share numbers like Corsi For% and Expected Goals For% above the 50% break-even mark, regardless of the player he’s with.

The one player that Draisaitl is having success with this season is Bouchard, as they’ve played 90 minutes together and posted a Corsi For percentage of 51.71% and an Expected Goals For percentage of 52.26 – both numbers being well above the team’s current averages. With Nurse having his own issues and posting some of his worst on-ice numbers in his career this season, it might be beneficial to the team, and especially for Draisaitl, if Bouchard saw an increase in his even-strength minutes and more time with the top lines.

Whatever the coaching staff and management decide to do to improve the team, whether it’s internal or external solutions, it’s important to have a firm grasp of the real issues plaguing the team and implementing changes that help improve the odds of winning games. Considering their poor results and underlying numbers at even-strength – where 80% of the game is played – it’s critical they focus here first and find tactical and deployment solutions as soon as possible.

Data and glossary: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at The Copper & Blue.

Really can’t emphasize enough how much of a drop off there’s been when comparing this season’s results to last season after the coaching change occurred. One of the biggest improvements the Edmonton Oilers made after Jay Woodcroft took over in February 2022 – and what helped drive the overall results – was the team’s possession and scoring chance numbers at even-strength as the club went from around league-average levels to being one of the best in the league.

After the coaching change last season, the Oilers played more aggressively with leads, they spread out their offence across multiple lines and their depth players weren’t getting out-shot and out-chanced as much as they had been in previous seasons. All of these coaching-driven factors played a major role in the overall results at the end of the 2021/22 regular season, and the process behind it all was based on sound logic and reasoning.

Fast forward to this season, and the team isn’t anywhere near where they were in the final thirty-eight games of last season. Their possession numbers and share of scoring chances are currently some of the lowest in the league, with their Corsi For percentage dropping down from 53.71% last season to 47.76% this season. And their share of expected goals is down to 46.29% – which ranks 26th in the league only ahead of Anaheim in the Pacific division.

Now it’s understandable if the Oilers defensive play gets most of the attention as the results are what stands out first. They’re currently allowing the seventh highest rate of goals against at even-strength (2.78), and their penalty kill is allowing 12.04 goals against per hour – the third highest in the league. Management didn’t exactly build a strong, championship caliber defence core either and we’ve seen established players struggle throughout this season and some of the young prospects struggle to gain traction at the NHL level. The team also spent a lot of money on a new starting goalie who is struggling early on this season – which was also somewhat expected.

When we dig into the actual results, we see that they’re somewhat expected as the club is having all sorts of issues preventing shots and scoring chances at even-strength, with their rates all having increased by a significant margin compared to last season. For instance, the rate of expected goals against – which factors in shot quality and the probability of an unblocked shot becoming a goal – has increased by 17.4% this season. The table below shows the other defensive numbers from this season and the thirty eight games under Woodcroft from last season with percentage changes.

What’s further troubling are the issues up front.

With arguably one of the best top-six forward groups in the league, and with the powerplay having a lot of success and McDavid and Draisaitl leading the league in points – it can generally be assumed that the Oilers offence is and will be just fine. But if we take a look at the numbers at even-strength, that’s really not the case. And things have taken a significant hit compared to last season, similar to the levels experienced on the defensive side of things.

The Oilers are only scoring 2.26 goals per hour at even-strength, which ranks 24th in the league and last in the Pacific division. The biggest issue is that they generate some of the lowest rates of shot attempts, shots on goal and scoring chances – all of which have dropped over 10% compared to last season. The Oilers current offensive rates have them in the bottom third in the league for each category – a big drop off from the end of last season where they were closer to the top five in the league after Woodcroft took over.

You’d hope someone in the Oilers management group is aware of this situation and is questioning (a) how the roster was built the way it was, and (b) the coaching tactics and player deployment that is being implemented. There’s a significant problem in Edmonton both offensively and defensively, and it’s critical for the team to get things on track if they want to be considered a championship contender.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at The Copper & Blue.

Pretty rough start for the Edmonton Oilers, securing only four points in their first five games of the season – all of which were at home and included three losses in regulation time.

The issue for the Oilers – which has been an ongoing thing for years now – is their play at even-strength (5v5) where they have only scored five goals in five games. We can’t expect this to last forever considering the talent they have and the fact that the team is currently converting only 4.38% of their shots into goals – the lowest shooting percentage in the league. This is a team that’s typically around the league average rate of about 8.50% and a number of players – including McDavid and Draisaitl – are posting on-ice shooting percentages well below their career levels.

What is concerning, however, is that the team itself is generating a relatively low rate of shots and scoring chances at even-strength this season – numbers much lower than they were last year after Jay Woodcroft took over as head coach. Shot metrics, including the rate of shots for and against and the overall share of total shots, are driven by tactics and deployment – things that are under the control of the coaching staff. So it’s been a little surprising to see the drop off.

The table below shows the Oilers offence as reflected by the team rate of shot attempts (Corsi), unblocked shot attempts (Fenwick), shots and expected goals (xGoals) this season compared to the numbers last season after Woodcroft took over. The numbers have been score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

Now I’m using the numbers from last season under Woodcroft as a comparison because that was a really good team we saw in the final 38 games of the season. And they had the results and the strong underlying shot share numbers that top-end teams post at even-strength – levels that the Oilers should be trying to reach to be considered legitimate contenders.

And so far, they’re below where they should be. For example, the Oilers are currently generating about 37 unblocked shot attempts per hour, which ranks 25^th in the league, only ahead of teams like Montreal, San Jose, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Anaheim, Chicago and Arizona. This current rate is about 20% lower than where they were last season when they generated over 46 unblocked shot attempts per hour – which was top five in the league. Their actual shots on goal has dropped by 18.6% compared to last season and their rate of expected goals has dropped by 13.3%.

Yes it’s five games, and there’s plenty of time to correct this. But it’s a good topic to ask the coaching staff about considering some of the other higher-end teams are getting positive results due in large part to their ability to out-shoot and out-chance opponents consistently. Pittsburgh for example is off to 4-0-1 start, have scored 19 even-strength goals, are generating some of the highest rates of shots in the league and are posting shot-share numbers (like Corsi For% and Expected Goals For%) above 52%.

That brings me to my next point. Because of their lack of offence and issues controlling the flow of play and generating shots, the Oilers are also posting poor possession and shot-share metrics compared to last season under Woodcroft.

The Oilers currently rank in the bottom third of the league when it comes to things like Corsi For% (46.61%, 23rd overall), Fenwick For% (44.15%, 27th overall) and Expected Goals For% (45.45%, 21st overall), well below where they were last season when they ranked near the top of the league after Woodcroft took over.

And if we look at the top teams from last season, and how they did in their first five to six games, we see that while the results may not have been there right off the bat, at least they were beating opponents on the shot clock and setting themselves up for success. Six of the top seven teams in terms of points percentage last season posted a Corsi For% above 50% in their first few weeks of the season and averaged an expected goals share above 53%. Interesting to see that Colorado was the one team in this group that struggled early on, but managed to turn it around – definitely an outlier that the Oilers can try to emulate.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Oilers can turn things around at even-strength, and the influence Woodcroft can have on the underlying numbers through potential tactical and deployment adjustments. Woodcroft and his coaching staff did set the bar quite high based on the numbers the Oilers posted last season. But it’s important to reach those expectations as soon as possible if the Oilers want to improve their chances of winning hockey games and establishing themselves as contenders.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at The Copper & Blue.

Ahead of such a high-pressure regular season where the Oilers are expected to contend for the cup, there remains a few question marks across the roster. Up front the Oilers have the high end talent needed to win championships, but it remains to be seen if the rest of the group can consistently outscore opponents when McDavid isn’t on the ice. And on the blue line, things are looking alright with a top four that should be able to hold its own in the Pacific, although no major game breakers exist on the backend like some of the top teams have – unless of course Bouchard takes another step. But as long as the defence core and the top end stars stay healthy, and a couple youngsters emerge as reliable options, a playoff berth should be achievable.

The biggest concern heading into the regular season is in net with 30-year old Jack Campbell starting the first season of a five-year contract. While he should be a more stable option than someone like Mike Smith, his recent numbers have been pretty similar to those posted by the ‘battler’. So it’s unclear if Campbell is really going to be an upgrade.

Over the last three seasons, Campbell has been right around league average posting a 0.916 save percentage at even-strength, which ranks 32^nd among 68 goalies who have played at least 2,000 minutes (~42 games). He also posted a +2.54 goals saved above average (GSAA), which ranks 32^nd in the same cohort. For reference, Mike Smith was right behind Campbell, ranking 33^rd with a 0.916 save percentage at even-strength and 33^rd when it comes to GSAA with +2.53. Worth noting too that Mike Smith was a better goalie when it came to high danger chances, posting a 0.819 high-danger save percentage (HDSV%) ranking 42^nd, while Campbell ranked 65^th among 68 goalies with a 0.794 save percentage.

And on the penalty kill is where Smith has posted better numbers than Campbell. In the last three seasons, Campbell posted a save percentage of 0.881, which ranked 14^th among 66 goalies who played at least 200 shorthanded minutes (~42 games). Smith on the other hand was one of the best goalies in the league, ranking second in the group with a 0.902 save percentage and tied with the Rangers Igor Shesterkin. With the Oilers consistently allowing one of the highest rate of shots against on the penalty kill, both under Tippett and Woodcroft, Smith really bailed the team out posting a +16.47 goals saved above average shorthanded, second only to Shesterkin.

The other issue worth monitoring is how well Campbell handles the workload in Edmonton, which will be slightly higher than what he was used to in Toronto as the Oilers do tend to play more of a free flowing game and willing to exchange scoring chances. Over the last three seasons under head coach Sheldon Keefe, the Leafs allowed one of the lowest rates of shots against in the league at even-strength with 28.55, and allowed 39.52 unblocked shot attempts against (i.e., Fenwick). Under either Woodcroft or Tippett, the Oilers were slightly higher than that and closer to league average levels, allowing about 30 shots against per hour and just over 41 unblocked shot attempts.

That’s not too bad of a difference and it’ll be interesting to see if the Oilers can improve their defensive play. But it’s on the penalty kill where things could get a little rough for Campbell. Over the last three seasons in Toronto under Keefe, Campbell’s teammates allowed 64.51 unblocked shot attempts per hour when shorthanded and 47.38 shots against per hour – numbers much stronger than league average levels. The Oilers on the other hand have been fairly poor on the penalty kill allowing 77.80 unblocked shot attempts against per hour and 56.69 shots against per hour over the last three seasons. Those numbers actually got worse when Woodcroft took over with the Oilers allowing 81.65 unblocked shot attempts against per hour and 59.63 shots against per hour after the coaching change in February 2022. As mentioned above, the Oilers goaltending really bailed out the penalty kill and masked some of the underlying tactical issues. Now it remains to be seen if Campbell can do the same, all while adjusting to a new team and system.

We’ve seen a few goalies in recent years now make their debuts with new teams following success elsewhere and falling flat. Jacob Markstrom was the Flames big off-season signing in 2020 following a career year in Vancouver, but saw his numbers take a hit as he adjusted to new teammates and a new system. And the Flames ended up missing the playoffs that season. Philipp Grubauer was another goalie who had posted solid numbers in Washington and Colorado, was even a Vezina trophy finalist, before signing with Seattle in 2021. But he too struggled adjusting to a new system, and the Kraken ended up finishing last in the Pacific. Considering both goalies were roughly the same age as Campbell when they moved to new teams and had similar pressures to live up to new multi million dollar contracts, you can understand why there might be some trepidation with the Oilers goaltending this upcoming season.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at The Copper & Blue.

Expectations are going to be high for the Edmonton Oilers as the club attempts to meet and hopefully exceed the results from last season. Make no mistake, winning a round, and hopefully two, is the only way to really justify this management group’s roster construction and asset management this off-season. To be one of the top end teams in the league is going to require consistently outscoring opponents, and having a 50 goal scorer or two is going to help – especially when the rest of the roster has had issues producing in the past without one of the top end stars on the ice.

When it comes to Leon Draisaitl, there’s a fairly good chance he’ll continue producing at the rate he’s been at over the last few seasons. He’s clearly in his prime, has done well staying healthy and has put up 304 all-situation points in 207 games over the last three seasons. That’s second only behind Connor McDavid (325 points) and 50 points ahead of third place Jonathan Huberdeau (254 points). Feels like 100 points is a reasonable target for the 24-year old, and there’s a good chance he’ll surpass that.

But what about actual goals? Is it safe to assume he can reach the 50-goal mark next season? Can we can expect him to surpass that again? Could he even hit 60 and help the Oilers reach the 300 goal mark like five other teams did last season? It’s a lofty goal for the German forward as it’s been accompllished only three times in recent memory: Auston Mathews in 2021/22 (60 goals), Steven Stamkos in 2011/12 (60 goals) and Alexander Ovechkin in 2007/08 (65 goals).

For this exercise, I’m keeping things relatively simple. I’m going to project how many games Draisaitl will play in 2022/23, and then using his average rate of shots on goal per game at even-strength and the powerplay as well as his shooting percentages over the last three seasons, determine how many goals he’ll likely score next season. From there we can figure out what he and the Oilers can do to improve his odds of scoring 60 goals.

First, a summary of the number of goals Draisaitl has scored each season that he’s been in the league, with a breakdown of goals by the various game-states: even-strength, powerplay and penalty kill.

So what’s a reasonable target for Draisaitl next season?

Let’s start with even-strength where Draisaitl has scored 72 goals from 410 shots over the last three seasons, posting a 17.56% shooting percentage – one of the best in the league.

If he plays in 97% of the games this upcoming season (which is the proportion of games he’s played in since his first full season in the league), so about 80 games, and generates 1.95 shots per game, which is what he’s averaged over the last few seasons – he should get about 155 shots on goal at even-strength. And if he posts the same shooting percentage he’s had over the last three seasons (17.56%), he should score about 27 even-strength goals. Now if he can match his career high shooting percentage of 20.53% which he did in the 2018/19 season, he could potentially score 31 – slightly better than what he posted last season.

On special teams, I think we can reasonably expect about 22 powerplay goals from Draisaitl next season. Table below is a summary of his powerplay history.

Based on the rate of shots he’s posted on the powerplay over the last three seasons (1.17 shots per game), he’ll likely get about 93 shots on goal. And if he converts on 23.50% percent of those shots, which has been his shooting percentage over the last three seasons, he’ll get about 22 goals. If he somehow matches the 25.81% powerplay shooting percentage that he posted in the 2019/20 season, he could get to 24 goals matching his powerplay total from last season. And since he’s scored a short-handed goal in each of the last two seasons, and actually scored three times in 2018/19, I think we can expect a shorthanded goal next year as well. And I wouldn’t be surprised if he got two on the penalty kill as his rate of shorthanded shots doubled last season, going from 0.07 per game to 0.15.

So taking a conservative approach and using his rate of shots and his individual shooting percentage from the last three seasons at even-strength and on special teams, we can expect Draisaitl to score about 50 goals in the 2022/23 regular season (27 on even-strength, 22 on the powerplay and one shorthanded). This of course is assuming Draisaitl remains healthy, he continues to play with good players at even-strength. And the Oilers powerplay continues to have the same talent and tactical approach as it’s had the last few seasons with Glen Gulutzan running things.

Now to get anywhere near 60 goals, a few things will need to go right.

First Draisaitl will need to match his career best shooting percentages at even-strength (20.53% in 2018/19) and the powerplay (25.81% in 2018/19). Doing that and generating the same rate of shots per game from the last three seasons (1.95 shots per game at even-strength and 1.17 shots per game on the powerplay) and he could potentially reach 57 goals (31 on even-strength, 24 on the powerplay and 2 shorthanded).

To get more than 57 goals, he’ll need to not only match his career high shooting percentages (as listed above), but also match his career highs in terms of shots per game at even-strength and the powerplay. If he can generate 2.14 shots per game at even-strength, which is what he posted in 2019/20, putting up 170 shots, and convert on 20.53% of those shots like he did in 2018/19, he could get to 35 even-strength goals. And if he can generate 1.41 shots per game on the powerplay like he did in 2020/21, put up 112 shots, and convert on 25.81% of those shots like he did in 2019/20, he could get to 29 powerplay goals. Add another shorthanded one, and he could get to 65.

Considering how well Draisaitl has played the last few seasons, how much time he gets to play with McDavid and how the rate of goal-scoring has increased across the league, it really isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at The Copper & Blue.