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Previewing the Oilers vs Stars (2025)

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Expecting an entertaining western conference final. Here’s how the two teams match up at even-strength. Dallas has relied heavily on goaltending and special teams to keep things going so far this post-season, and it’ll be interesting to see if Skinner can match (or at least get close to) Oettinger’s level this round.

And here’s a quick look at how the Dallas skaters have done this post-season at even-strength.

What stands out here is how many forwards on the Dallas roster have posted negative shot and scoring chance differentials. Colorado really dominated them in the first round, with Dallas only posting a 40% Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals percentage, which does skew the numbers. Worth noting too that the Stars posted shot-share numbers around 45% in the last twenty-five games of their regular season. This was largely driven by the absence of Heiskanen who appears to be back in form. The Stars defence isn’t all that imposing either. Heiskanen appears to be the one player the Oilers need to focus on, while the rest appear to be exploitable.

In case you missed it, I shared a couple thoughts on the upcoming series in a news story for CBC Edmonton News. Clip is here: CBC Edmonton News (2025, May 18)

Data: Natural Stat Trick

CBC Radio Active: The Oilers are in preseason action with some new NHL rules

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Had the pleasure of joining host Jessica Ng on CBC Radio Active this evening to talk about the Edmonton Oilers kicking off their training camp and pre-season, as well as the upcoming NHL rule changes that go into effect. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2024, September 23)

Topics we covered:

  • The Oilers first pre-season win against Winnipeg, and key takeaways from camp so far.
  • The upcoming NHL rule changes, including the expansion of the coaching challenge, line changes after a dislodged net and new faceoff procedures.
  • Importance of Kris Knoblauch having a full training camp with the team.
  • Which roster positions have openings, who is competing for those spots, and the key players to watch.

Big thank you as always to the amazing team at CBC Edmonton for putting the show together.

CBC Radio Active and The Early Edition: Analysis of game seven

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Joined host Jessica Ng on CBC Radio Active this afternoon to review the Edmonton Oilers’ playoff run and their loss to Florida Panthers in game seven of the Stanley Cup finals. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2024, June 24)

Topics we covered:

  • The Oilers loss in game seven and what Florida did well against them.
  • Ice conditions in Florida and the role it might have played in the final round.
  • Officiating in the playoffs and the tendency to call fewer penalties in games five, six and seven.
  • Cup hand-off tradition, and what the order could have been if the Oilers had won. But alas!
  • The big decisions on the horizon for the Oilers, including changes to the front office and roster construction.

Thanks to the CBC team for putting it all together!

I also had the pleasure of joining host Stephen Quinn on CBC Vancouver’s morning program, The Early Edition. Plenty of national coverage of the Oilers playoff run, and it was a cool experience sharing my thoughts with a different market. Full segment is here: CBC The Early Edition (2024, June 24)

CBC Alberta at Noon: Do you think the Oilers can still win?

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Joined guest host Doug Dirks on CBC Alberta at Noon along with Dave Waddell from CBC Calgary to talk about the Edmonton Oilers, their playoff run and the first game at home in the finals. It was a great interactive show as we talked a lot about hockey, but also heard from a number of listeners about their personal experiences during the playoffs. Full segment is here: CBC Alberta at Noon (2024, June 13)

Topics we covered:

  • What went wrong in games one and two in Florida, and what the key factors were.
  • The general environment around this team, and why there’s plenty of optimism that the Oilers will bounce back.
  • The play of Stuart Skinner, the pressure he’s in, and what to expect from him.
  • The pressure around the Edmonton Oilers to win a championship, and the urgency fans are feeling.
  • The officiating during the playoffs, and the frustration fans are experiencing.

Thanks to the CBC team for putting it all together!

CBC Radio Active: Time for the Oilers to get going

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Joined host Jessica Ng on CBC Radio Active this afternoon to preview the Edmonton Oilers game three match against the Florida Panthers. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2024, June 12)

Topics we covered:

  • The Oilers issues generating offence so far, and how the Panthers have been able to slow them down at even-strength and the powerplay.
  • The overall play of Stuart Skinner, who is posting an abysmal 85% save percentage against Florida, well below the league average levels (~91%). Skinner needs to be league-average for the Oilers to have a chance this series.
  • What the Oilers need to address to increase their odds of winning game three and four at home, including looking for favorable matchups with last change on home ice.
  • Reasons for optimism that the Oilers can get themselves out of this current hole.

Thanks again to the team at CBC Edmonton for putting this all together!

CBC Radio Active and CBC Edmonton News (TV): What’s next for the Oilers?

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Had the chance to do radio and television for CBC Edmonton this evening to talk about the Edmonton Oilers and their upcoming final round against the Florida Panthers. Full radio segment with Min Dhariwal is here: CBC Radio Active (2024, June 3)

And my television segment with Sandra Batson is here: CBC Edmonton News (2023, June 3).

Topics we covered:

  • The key drivers for the Oilers success in the post-season, including their star players and their penalty kill.
  • What went wrong with Dallas and what their main challenges were.
  • The challenges the Oilers have gone through this season, and what adjustments they made along the way.
  • The key decisions made by the coaching staff that’s helped pushed the team along, including the goaltending and tweaks to the line combinations.
  • The emergence of Broberg, and the pressure of being only one of two prospects that have been drafted and developed since Ken Holland became general manager.
  • The Florida Panthers, their strengths and what’s gotten them this far in the playoffs, two years in a row.

Big thank you to the team at CBC for putting the radio and television segments together!

CBC Alberta at Noon: Oilers face a crucial long weekend

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Had the pleasure of joining host Judy Aldous on CBC’s Alberta at Noon radio program on Friday afternoon. Got to talk Edmonton Oilers, hockey fandom, and much more.

Enjoyed this a lot as I got to spend the full hour on the show and cover a bunch of great topics.

Full segment is here: CBC Alberta at Noon (2024, May 17)

Topics we covered:

  • The current state of the Edmonton Oilers series against the Vancouver Canucks, and what the Oilers issues have been.
  • What the Oilers need to do to push this series to seven games, and the potential ramifications if things don’t go well.
  • Hockey fandom and how fans are supporting any Canadian playoff team regardless of their allegiances.
  • My own experience as a fan, getting into hockey and the embracing the geeky parts of the game.
  • The role of online hockey fans, and how they contribute to the information and knowledge around the game.

Big thanks to producer Dave Waddell and the CBC team that put it all together!

CBC Radio Active: Oilers in Los Angeles for game 3

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Joined Jessica Ng and Min Dhariwal on CBC Radio Active this evening to preview game three between the Edmonton Oilers and the Los Angeles Kings. Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2024, April 26)

Other topics we discussed:

  • The first two games, what’s gone well and what the challenges have been.
  • Dylan Holloway’s performance in game two, his NHL journey so far, and the pressure of making an impact as a first round draft pick.
  • Stuart Skinner’s play, and the issues both teams are having playing defence.
  • The other series underway in the NHL.
  • Bob Cole’s passing, his impact to the game, and favorite memories. The Todd Marchant goal in 1997 will always be legendary for me, and Cole was a big part of that.

Couple other notes.

  • This series between the Oilers and Kings has been a pretty high-event one so far. Both teams had solid defensive numbers in the regular season, with the Oilers ranking fifth best in the league allowing 27.84 shots against per hour (all situations) and the Kings ranking fourth (27.70). But so far this post season, both clubs are allowing some of the highest rates among the playoff teams. Edmonton is at 30.95 shots against per hour and the Kings are at 37.34.
  • The Kings have scored all nine of their goals at even-strength (5v5). The Oilers only have six, with the other four coming on the powerplay. We know the referees gradually stop making calls as the series progresses, so the Oilers need to figure things out at even-strength.
  • Among the 19 goalies who have so far played this post-season, Skinner ranks 15th with an 0.857 save percentage (all situations) and Talbot ranks 13th with 0.867. Both goalies played a lot of minutes this regular season, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them burnout and have their backups come in at some point. They’re good, NHL-caliber goalies, but they’re not going to steal you games in the playoffs.
  • Talbot has been the better goalie at even-strength so far. Skinner ranks dead last with a goals saved above average (GSAA) of -3.56.
  • I’m also not overly surprised that the Kings allowed four powerplay goals against in the first two games. While it’s true that they allowed the lowest rate of goals against during the regular season, it was largely driven by their goaltending. The Kings were allowing a higher-than-average rate of shots and scoring chances against all season, so it was a matter of time before they got burnt, especially if their goaltending slipped even slightly.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

CBC Radio Active: Oilers and Kings renew rivalry

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Had the pleasure of joining host Jessica Ng on CBC Radio Active to talk about the Edmonton Oilers and their upcoming first round playoff series against the Los Angeles Kings. Got to be in studio for this one!

Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2024, April 19)

Topics we covered:

  • The Oilers’ strengths and weaknesses, and what the Kings will have to do to beat them.
  • What issues the Oilers might have with the Kings and how they match up.
  • Managing the workload of star players and the overall health of McDavid.
  • The areas of the Oilers roster that needed to be addressed at the deadline, including defence and goaltending.
  • Stuart Skinner’s season, and concerns around his workload.

Thanks again to the team at CBC Edmonton for putting it all together! And special thanks to Min Dhariwal for capturing this picture.

CBC Radio Active: Edmonton Oilers season so far

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I joined Jessica Ng on CBC Radio Active to talk about the Edmonton Oilers season and what they’ll need to push for a playoff spot.

Full segment is here: CBC Radio Active (2023, December 29)

Topics we covered:

  • The Oilers 5-0 win against the San Jose Sharks last night.
  • McDavid’s season and his return to form.
  • Ryan McLeod’s recent performance and his importance to the team.
  • The Oilers issues with drafting and developing players.
  • The Oilers push for a wild card spot.

Thanks again to the team at CBC Edmonton for putting it all together!