Expanding the Scope: Insight from Gabriel Desjardins of Behind the Net

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fehr-behind-netIt’s been great to see hockey analytics grow this year, but it’s still perplexing that more people aren’t looking past it and asking tougher questions about it’s relationship with other concepts and fields of research. The numbers and metrics are a part of a continuous discussion, which has intensified with more and more people joining in the discourse. For instance, possession stats have gained prominence, and that’s lead to more questions about the game. Projects tracking zone entry stats and puck retrieval stats will uncover new information, which will likely spawn off more questions. That’s the thing about analytics in any field…there is no finished product.

So if we look past the actual stats and the ensuing discussion, there’s still a lot to be understood about how exactly hockey analytics has impacted the different facets of the game (management, scouting, players, etc) as well as it’s relationship other fields such as information technology, business and society in general.

Behind the Net was one of the first websites that collected advanced stats, with its owner Gabriel Desjardins leading a lot of the online discussion in the early days. He sent out a series of tweets last week that gave some insight into hockey analytics, but also touched on some topics that have yet to be fully explored.

As we approach the trough of disillusionment for hockey analytics, here are a few helpful thoughts…

#1) Hockey insiders have been using “analytics” for decades. +/-, Sinden/Corsi shot/pass/touch counting, video aggregation. These stats had the imprimatur of cigar-chomping insiders, so nobody dug too deeply or cared too much

#2) One day, members of the general public found out what insiders had been doing and slowly worked through the value of this data. Somehow people popularizing the league’s internal metrics became outsiders as far as fans/media were concerned. It’s a classic obtuse battle of ideas. e.g. Obamacare was conservative for Romney but socialist for Obama. It took “analytics” predicting an unavoidable Leafs collapse to push people to the “Peak of Inflated Expectations”. It’s amazing – people promoted ideas the NHL used for decades w/o press caring but these ideas then needed to be proven publicly

#3) Now that analytics have been re-proven externally, teams have been getting PR boosts by announcing various hires but teams were already using analytics. So there’s no new benefit. Except I suppose people will expect the Leafs to benefit, hence the trough of disillusionment.

#4) Now here’s the missing piece: teams need to know how to interpret these stats and correctly use them to drive decisions. It’s statistical parallel to @Lowetide_‘s “saw him good” principle. Teams don’t understand regression will cut guy based on 3 games. Teams need to take long view to get analytics benefit and incentives don’t align. Today’s best GMs still only have 14-day outlook

#6) May see benefit for poorly-run teams [TOR, EDM] but the inflated expectations are that “stats guys” will take them on a 2015 playoff run. Unless @mc79hockey is making $1M a year, we need to seriously temper expectations

#7) There’s very little low-hanging fruit in analytics and most of it has been harvested in hockey. There’s no Matt Stairs or Roberto Petagine waiting to be freed. Helps that the KHL will put a pile of cash in your suitcase at the end of every game. Nobody needs to toil in the A for $75k/year

#8) The thing that initially annoyed me was Pierre Mcguire’s comments to @wyshynski about firing coaches for using analytics. But teams already sign and play guys because “Coach knew him in junior” or much worse.

Thoughts on the Oilers: 2014/2015 Season, Forwards, Defence, Goaltending

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Leon Draisaitl

Leon Draisaitl

This is year two of the MacTavish-Eakins era and needless to say, there has to be progress following last season’s train wreck.

Forwards

I think the new additions will be a massive boost to the club. Experience still counts in this league, so it’s refreshing to see guys like Pouliot and Purcell flanking a very young and developing core. Both are still in their primes, making serious money. But both should be counted on for secondary scoring.

The top six overall looks like a legit NHL group. But because of the weaknesses at centre, this club is one injury away from entering the McDavid sweepstakes. There is never a good reason to keep a player under 20 on your roster, unless he’s Crosby or Ovechkin. And again the Oilers will be relying on a young prospect to produce with Draisatl securing the second line centre position. Here’s hoping he can at least get the softer minutes (i.e., offensive zone face offs, power play time, against easier competition). With such a glaring hole at centre, I think most assumed the Oilers would’ve sought out a veteran player like Derek Roy or Derek Legwand.

Defence

This group is definitely an improvement from last season, with the addition of Fayne and Nikitin. But it is still far from being a top NHL caliber group. Guys like Schultz, Klefbom, Marincin and Nurse are still developing, but will likely be asked to play high end minutes. If this club can stay healthy, and the team is smart enough to keep Petry long-term, I think they can compete well in their division. My expectations when it comes to how they play as a unit is much higher with the addition of Craig Ramsay on the staff. It’ll be interesting to see if he can find a way to better utilize this group and find some success in 5-on-5 situations.

Goaltending

This is one area where I’m still unsure about. If the coaching staff can limit the ridiculous amount of clean zone entries and two-on-ones like last year, I think this tandem is good enough. But if those same defensive lapses and poor coverage emerge from last season, no goalie will stand a chance. Here’s hoping some stronger possession play through all three zones will help the goalies. From what I saw last year and the pre-season, I’m predicting Fasth comes out as the clear cut number one goalie by November.

Bold Predictions

Regardless of the glaring hole at centre and the question mark in net, I think there’s a lot of potential in this current roster. The wings have a lot of talent and experience, and stack up well against the top teams in the league. The defence has improved with new roster players and the addition of Ramsay. MacTavish has brought in proven possession players with experience, which should hopefully translate to less time scrambling and chasing the puck. An additional 10 wins from last season isn’t asking for much, so I’m predicting they make a jump up to 10th in the west this season.

2013/2014 Season:

29-44-9
67 PTS
203 GF
270 GA
14th in the West

2014/2015 Predictions:

39-36-7
85 PTS
220 GF
240 GA
10th in the West

Top Scorer: Taylor Hall
Best defenceman*: Jeff Petry
Likely to get dealt: David Perron

*Based on boxcars and advanced stats

Recommended Links

The Autumn Leaves Drift by My Window – Lowetide

Are We There Yet? – Copper and Blue

Oilers Rig Podcast – The Oilers Rig

Following the Oilers

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In the midst of all of the losing and failed playoff attempts are questions from concerned friends and loved ones.

          Why do you still cheer for the Oilers?

          It’s the same thing every year. Aren’t you sick of it?

          Are you okay?

Surrounding those questions are taunts and ridicule, constantly reminding us that it’s been a long time since the Oilers made it to the playoffs. That the Oilers have only made the playoffs 7 times in the past 18 seasons is easy to showcase. And that any sort of memory of dynasties should be washed away with the tears of pain and disappointment.

So why DO we follow this team?

First it’s important to review how we got in this position. My own real commitment, when I had the attention span to watch games and follow the news, started well after the dynasty days. This goal right here from the 1997 playoffs. Game 7, Dallas, overtime.

I was hooked. And every year since, despite all of the losing, the attachment grows. I’ll try to explain.

The Oilers being terrible has led to some unintentional consequences. All of which have played a significant role in our personal attachment to the team. While famous research studies have pointed to basking in reflected glory, I would argue that Oiler fans are basking in an addiction to uncertainty.

From the uncertainty that stems from professional sports, we’ve created an excessive amount of discourse. Think of the message boards, the blogs, the comments, the tweets. All filled with speculation and the ensuing gossip, which serves as a bridging tool for strangers to connect, share ideas and build community. And built on the foundation of the speculation and gossip across these channels are the storylines. Think of any player drafted and their back story before coming to training camp. Or when a player is playing poorly, we ponder what changes are needed in the lineup.

And from the storylines, we build these unique characters. We develop these strong attachments to players in the hope that they succeed (or fail depending on your outlook in life). Each character carries traits and skills, creating numerous short and long compelling narratives that we want (or hope) to see the completion of.

And at the very heart of all of this is the community, which includes fans, writers, broadcasters, and anyone else watching the game. The stories need a medium to be exchanged and extended, and it’s the social aspect of fandom that drives the communal and individual attachment to the game.

Now if the team wasn’t terrible, I’d argue there would be less to speculate on. I can only imagine what it’d be like supporting the Kings or Bruins. I’m pretty sure the topics would not include fledgling 4th round draft picks and failed defensive systems. The Oilers being terrible really is why it’s hard to quit now. We’ve invested so much time and energy following the story, it’s hard to turn away from the uncertainty and the possibility that some sort of conclusion exists. Combine that with the community you’re a part of, and the regular discourse, there really is a social attachment to the game that’s difficult to break.

UAlberta Senate – Plenary Session – September 2014

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ualberta-tumblr

Source: UAlberta Tumblr

Attended my first plenary session as part of the University of Alberta Senate last week. The main objective of these is to review the goals/mandates of the group and the different committees, and to hear presentations on the various programs and projects on campus.

Related: Joining the University of Alberta Senate (2014, July 18)

It was a nice time to be on campus. Lots of events welcoming new and returning students, plus there were several events for alumni. It was great meeting the other Senators and learning about their backgrounds and experiences. Look forward to working with this group.

Here’s a recap of some of the presentations.

  • My colleagues Sean Price and Glenn Stowkowy from the Alumni Association came by to give an overview of the group and share some of the events coming up in the next year. It’ll be the Alumni Association’s centenary in 2015, so there will be many events to look forward to including The Green and Glow Winterfest (January 29-31, 2015) and a Leadership Lecture (May 22, 2015) featuring former Canadian Prime Minister Joe Clark.
  • Dr. Naomi Krogman and Trina Innes from the UAlberta Campus Sustainability Initiative gave us a primer on what the group does and some of the projects planned and underway. Not only are they ensuring the social environment is taken care of on campus, but they’re also integrating with various degree programs to build awareness of this critical initiative. You can also check out their blog, suh-steyn, for more information. Highly recommend this article on bringing academics and sustainability together.
  • VP of University Relations Debra Pozega Osburn gave us an update on how the campus continues building relationships across Alberta. Debra and her team have travelled to various communities to promote the University and answer questions from the public.
  • VP of Facilities and Operations Don Hickey gave us an update on the Edmonton Galleria Project and the land development going on around campus. The campus is growing pretty quickly, but a lot of attention is being paid to the impact it has on the surrounding community. Details are all still being finalized for these projects, so our group had a chance to ask questions and provide feedback. Mack Male provided some excellent insight into the Universities role in the project on his blog.
  • Dean of the University of Alberta’s School of Public Health Kue Young provided information about his faculty and the various initiatives underway. The department is relatively small but have played a large role in the research happening in Alberta and abroad. More information about the School of Public Health is on their website.

Appreciate all the individuals who came in to present. They gave our group a lot to think about and discuss.

U School Program at the University of Alberta

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USchool-COLOURHave to say the best part about being a University of Alberta student, or alumni, are the fantastic volunteer opportunities to learn and meet people on campus.

U School is one initiative that I’m really looking forward to getting involved with. Students from schools in Edmonton and the surrounding area get to spend a week a week on campus to learn about a number of topics including engineering, physical ed, drama and history, among others. There’s a lot of great resources on campus for the kids to access, making this a very interactive program.

Description from the U School website:

U School is a program initiated by the University of Alberta Senate that aims to introduce and connect grade 4 through 9 students to the University of Alberta.  Our target students would not necessarily have strong connections to the the U of A as they may come from socially vulnerable metro areas or are given a rural opportunity through the program.

We work with our classroom teachers to develop a week-long experience related to learning objectives and expose students to things unique to UAlberta.

The organizers have done a terrific job developing an amazing program. They’re looking for volunteers (students, staff, alumni) to help out as class mentors, interviewees and presenters. More details about the roles and the sign-up form are here.


Related Links

U School Blog (University of Alberta)

Running the Edmonton Marathon

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City of Edmonton

City of Edmonton

Completed the Edmonton Marathon on August 24, 2014. Easily the hardest thing I’ve gone through physically. Did not realize how much it takes out of you and the recovery needed afterwards.

I’ve been running consistently for a year. I aim for 10-20 km a week (a few times a week, somewhere between five and ten kilometers per run). I can pretty easily run up to 15 km at a 5:30 min/km pace without any issues. Early hours work best with two young ones at home.

Leading up to the marathon, the most I’d ever ran was a half-marathon about seven years ago. In hindsight, I was extremely unprepared back then but I finished the 21km trek in just over two hours. I remember being absolutely spent after that run, so I trained enough this time to avoid getting burnt out.

Along with running over the past year, I spent one morning a week at the local track merging in sprints, jogs and body weight exercises. Just picked up a couple tips online that really helped build up the legs and core. Had ACL surgery in 2006, so I had to make sure the knee and supporting muscles were feeling fine.

Going into the race, I figured a pace closer to 6 min/km get me to the finish line. Objective was to finish but to maintain a good, reasonable, pace. Doing the math, it would take me around 4:12 to finish, but I also padded it and decided that a 4:20 to 4:30 would be reasonable.

The course started in downtown, went east towards Rundle Park, then back to downtown and then looped to the west end, and then finished in downtown. A very flat course, with no hills. Caught myself a few times looking out into the river valley. Click here for a map of the route: Edmonton_Marathon_2014.

I followed along with the 4:15 pace setter to start and see how things feel. The fellow keeping the pace was very social and passed on some great advice along the way. I stuck with them for the first 29 km very comfortably and was very relieved that I made it that far without any physical issues. Unfortunately, I had to take a bathroom break and never caught up to the group after that. Right around the 33 km mark was when the discomfort kicked in, making the rest of the run extremely tough. Thankfully, I pushed through, made it to the finish line in 4:32 and felt fine, all things considered.

Quick breakdown of my run, courtesy of Sports Stats:

Distance
km		 10 21.1 35 42.2
Time
hh:mm:ss		 0:59:49 2:06:16 3:37:40 4:32:50
Pace
min/km		 5:59 5:59 6:13 6:28

Average finish time was 4:06:51. Total of 542 participants.

Legs and back were pretty stiff after the run. Soreness stuck around for about 4 days. Took two weeks off from any physical exercise to fully recover, which I’m glad I did. Muscles felt very shaky for days, so I decided I didn’t want to risk any serious injury. Also felt pretty nauseous for a day, but some sleep and a good diet took care of that.

Thought the event and route were well planned. Really can’t say enough about the volunteers. From handling the race kit pick-ups, to the water stations, to the signs along the way, the volunteers really made the event a success.

Congrats to Arturs Bareikis for winning the Marathon. He completed the route in 2:27:46 with an average pace of 3:31 min/km. Just ridiculous. You can track his journey to the Olympics on his blog.

Related Links:

McGrath runs personal-best in Edmonton Marathon, but still finishes second – Edmonton Journal

Reporter on the Run (Series) – Otiena Ellwand of the Edmonton Journal

Edmonton man runs five marathons for his aunt – Edmonton Journal

Runners, organizers welcome Edmonton marathon downtown route change – Metro News

Potential Jobs in the field of Hockey Analytics

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The recent NHL hirings are a good indication that there will be more jobs out there for hockey bloggers, especially those who have a good understanding of analytics. Analytics really is a continuous discussion, so following the flow of information that comes from the process can shed some light on what areas of the game will likely hire more individuals.

So far we’ve seen a few bloggers get hired to work on the analytic departments of NHL clubs. My assumption here is that they’d sift through all the of the available data and provide recommendations on things like player personnel and possibly game tactics.

But as we’ve seen the Leafs do, recently hiring Darryl Metcalf, there’s also a need to collect data and then publish it in an easy-to-use, dashboard format for management and coaches to access. As we’ve seen online, there are a lot of fans who have developed tracking software and reporting tools, like Super Shot Search, Player Usage Charts and Shift Chart, that might be of interest to NHL clubs

Taking it one step further, teams will likely need some in-game analysts who can gather and share information to fans and the media. Teams typically provide some sort of game file with an assortment of stats and other information. These types of communication pieces will now likely include some high level stats that could be of interest to the public.

Teams may also look for people with coaching experience, who might have experience applying the analytics to coaching tactics. For instance if a club is finding that their defenceman is struggling and the opposition has been found to be strategically attacking his side of the ice, how does a team respond?

Teams may also want simple data trackers, and could rely on external companies, such as the one in Europe that specializes tracking soccer games. 

And of course, like in any professional sport, there are many, many people outside of the league who want to dissect the play of a team and players, including journalists, broadcasters and of course fans.

There will definitely be a huge demand for writers, specializing in data journalism, as major sports websites will want people who understand the full spectrum of analytics and its application to the game. But tv and radio broadcasters (in-game color commentators, talking heads, etc) will also have job openings, as there will likely be more discussion pertaining to the new questions from viewers about what impact the analytics will have on team success.

Following the flow of information, there will be a very high demand for hockey analytic expertise outside of the game. This would include groups involved in fan engagement such as video game developers, fantasy league service providers and even gambling sites. These external groups have always relied on hockey information to supplement the fan experience, and will likely look to expand their operations to include additional advanced stats (if they haven’t already).

And keep in mind, others that you may not expect to care about analytics just might be looking for some help to understand teams and players. Maybe there’s an advertising company out there that wants to align itself with a team that will  have a talented young core (that gets lots of ice time), for branding purposes. It’s a stretch, I know, but analytics really is a continuous discussion that can lead down many different paths.

Any job that is related to hockey analytics will require an individual to possess more than an understanding of analytics. Taking a step back and following the flow of information that can come from analytics, there will be a growing need for individuals with various backgrounds and experience. Organizations will likely search for people with information technology, broadcasting, or communication skills, among others, to really solidify their approach to analytics. The good news is, anyone who is interested in working in this field can begin honing their skills online using blogs and other publicly available applications.

Keeping the NHL Data Open

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legosIt would make absolutely no sense for the NHL to restrict fans access to any level of stats, whether it be the traditional set or the advanced possession ones (i.e., Corsi, Fenwick, etc).

The NHL has changed it’s Terms of Service to reflect that. On Thursday, Zsolt Munoz of The Copper and Blue provided an excellent summary of the changes and raised concern that this might impact the go-to websites like Behind the Net and Extra Skater.

As of Friday morning, Extra Skater has become inactive, much to the dismay of its many users. The website does scrape data from the NHL website but extends it to calculate new information and “advanced” stats. Darryl Metcalf, the websites administrator, puts it all in a fantastic dashboard format making it easy to navigate and use. I’m really not sure what’s happening with ES, but I’m pretty confident that the NHL will not be preventing anyone from using and extending its game data. Couple points:

  • Any sort of data analysis, or finding patterns, whether it be simple counting of goals or calculating Corsi%, requires an individual’s time and effort. The more time and effort a person puts in, the more engaged they become with the game. It requires critical thinking and gets people into the game a lot more than if they just read static stats from a game report. Fantasy league is a prime example of something that gets fans into the game and is linked to data analysis. Fans are growing an attachment to teams and players they typically have no interest in because of fantasy leagues. The NHL has got to love that.
  • There’s a been a lot of weight put into the concept of “open data“. The idea is if you provide anyone and everyone with easy to use data, individuals may be able to come up with new information that can be shared with the community at large. For example, the City of Edmonton publishes data sets, which have been used by individuals to develop new apps available for public use.
  • And, as mentioned by Tango Tiger, the online ecosystem today, supported by stats from the NHL or the data scraped by Extra Skater, have served as a fantastic training ground for analytic folks. Teams like the Edmonton Oilers and New Jersey Devils have hired individuals who have had access to this data and demonstrated its value.

I really see the NHL really opening up the flood gates when it comes to data. They may push to be the gatekeeper of data, which may be a fair trade-off if fans can extend it into accurate information. Past attempts by Major League Baseball to stifle the analytics growth have either failed or been held up in court, which I think gives hockey fans some hope that whatever data they want will be available to them free of charge. I also think the NHL will develop a process to support the development of new applications that use the data in some creative way. The more people toiling away with hockey data, the more time they’re spending on NHL related stuff…I assume that’s what the NHL would want,

And hey, if for whatever reason the league restricts data or even tries to charge for it, you will definitely see more tracking projects pop-up, similar to Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones Tracking Project, who has found an excellent way to track his own stats and receive compensation from the larger fan community.

Information and knowledge can’t be restricted in the modern society as far too many tools and the cooperative nature of individuals will support its growth. The momentum of information growth is giving fans a new role when it comes to consumption as a shift from passive consumption has been replaced by active, collaborative, engagement.

Data Journalism in Hockey

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old-time-reporterHockey analytics is doing some pretty remarkable stuff for the game. Not only are there new methods of understanding and following the game, but we’re beginning to see some of the more unintended consequences of its growth.

One thing to keep an eye on will be the evolution of hockey reporting and journalism. Analytics has received widespread attention this summer with NHL teams hiring experienced professionals and discussing the new statistics quite publicly. All of this is great, but now the people following the game, especially those that are relatively new to hockey analytics, will demand supporting evidence, in an easy-to-use, storytelling format.

Travis Yost brought up an excellent point, citing the potential for new data tracking technology as a reason why the demand for better sports writing will likely grow. There will definitely be teams looking to hire individuals with experience in analytics to keep up, but there will also be media outlets looking to enhance their coverage of the game and these advanced stats.

This will put the onus on anyone developing information about the game, whether it be newspaper writers, hockey analysts on television and fans online. The game has changed because of analytics, and now the information surrounding the game has to evolve.

What this means is that the distribution of  information has to shift from simple reporting to more data journalism. It won’t just be about grabbing quotes from coaches and players and then referencing some of the new stats like Corsi and Fenwick etc. But it’ll also mean having to embed graphics and information in an interactive and engaging way to tell a unique story.

The good news is, there are a handful of newspaper writers and bloggers who have been doing this very well for a few years now. James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail, as well as Japers’ Rink and SB Nation’s Outnumbered come to mind. But now, there will be an increasing demand for it. And I can definitely see some slick new platforms or reporting dashboards that can take all of the advanced stats and put together a strong game story.

Blogging platforms have served as a solid foundation and medium to develop hockey analytics. And now, they can be a real training ground for those looking to advance their careers in writing about the growing field.