Had the pleasure of joining host Jessica Ng on CBC Radio Active to talk about the Edmonton Oilers and their upcoming first round playoff series against the Los Angeles Kings. Got to be in studio for this one!
One last check-in on the western conference before the 2024 NHL playoffs begin next week.
The Oilers finished second in the Pacific division and fifth in the west, going 14-7-4 in their last twenty-five games of the regular season. They’re easily one of the top teams in the league, but they have a lot of strong competition – especially in the west. All eight teams have a case for winning their opening round series, and there doesn’t appear to be any easy paths to the finals.
Couple reasons for optimism.
The Oilers have consistently posted some of the best shot-share numbers in the league, ranking highly when it comes to the rate of generating shots and scoring chances as well as preventing them. I think that’s something that tends to get overlooked because of their high-end offence. The Oilers have over the course of the full season been a pretty solid defensive team, posting some of the lowest rates of shots and scoring chances against, and doing everything they can to help their goaltending.
The Oilers actual results have been very good. Their +57 goal differential (all situations) was fifth best in the league, and third in the western conference only behind Dallas (+64) and Winnipeg (+60). Their 55.78 percent goal-share (+40 goal differential) at even-strength (5v5) was fifth best in the league, and driven largely by their 55.52 percent Corsi For percentage and finishing talent at the top of their roster. Worth noting that while the Oilers did a good job controlling the flow of play and scoring chances without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, they couldn’t consistently convert on their chances and posted a -3 goal differential. The lack of finishing talent has been a problem all season, and wasn’t addressed by management.
The one area that could (again) be an issue is goaltending. It’s been a great story this year with Stuart Skinner, and how he’s solidified himself as a legit starter with Campbell being demoted to the minors. But the team’s 89.77 percent save percentage (all situations) finished 17th in the league and 9th in the western conference. Among the eight teams from the west that have qualified for the playoffs, their save percentage is only slightly better than Colorado’s (89.70 percent). It could be good enough for the playoffs, but I don’t expect the Oilers goaltending to win the team any games when games get tighter.
The other issue is Skinner’s workload this season, which has been one of the highest in the league. Only four other goalies played more minutes than him, which is a serious concern that I wrote about back in January. Ideally, you have a tandem in net to keep both goaltenders fresh for the playoffs. Unfortunately, the Oilers didn’t address this situation, and are at serious risk of performing poorly at such an important position.
Quick glance into how each western conference has performed at even-strength over their last twenty five games (since around mid-February). Helps give a sense of what each team’s strengths and weaknesses are and how it could translate into their post-season results.
Nashville really stands out here. They might have finished the season in the first wild card spot, but they finished the season on a high note. They posted a 0.740 points percentage in their last twenty give games, driven largely by their strong shot-share and expected goal numbers, as well as their goaltending. Vancouver on the other hand had really regressed, coming close to losing their grip on the Pacific division title to Edmonton. They’re having trouble scoring goals recently, which is a little concerning since they’re going up against Nashville in the first round.
Vegas didn’t have a great finish to the season either, and their goaltending was one of the worst in the league. But with players coming back from injury, and the fact that they’re doing a good job controlling the flow of play and scoring chances indicates that they should be competitive in the first round. Dallas is the one team that’s been good all season long, and could be the team to beat in the west.
Plenty of success has been had this season for the Edmonton Oilers, who have now won 45 of their 73 games, securing 95 points. Their 0.651 points percentage ranks second in the Pacific division and eighth best in the league.
What’s especially impressive is how often the Oilers have won their games by a decent margin. Their +55 goal differential in all situations ranks sixth best in the league, due in large part to their overall health, the high-end talent up front, their ability to control the flow of play and proportion of scoring chances at even-strength and their success on the powerplay. The overall results this season have looked real and sustainable and should hopefully translate into a long playoff run – especially if their top players can stay healthy and their goaltending holds up.
It’s clear that the team has the talent to do some damage, but how well do they compare with the rest of the league and the other teams contending for a championship this spring?
One way to evaluate a team’s talent level is by looking into the number of clear victories they’ve posted. Clear Victories is a metric that Scott Reynolds analyzed and tracked over a decade ago over at The Copper & Blue and is defined as a win by two goals or more, excluding empty net goals. The key takeaway from Reynolds’ analysis is that clear victories were a better indicator of a team’s true talent level than the team’s overall record. And teams who more often win games by a larger margin tend to have better success in the future. Heading into the post-season this metric can really help identify the teams that have an edge over their competition and if any of the contenders might be considered outliers.
With a lot of help from Ganesh Murdeshwar from PuckIQ, I was able to put the following table together that sorts each NHL team by their points percentage along with the number of clear victories they’ve posted this season. This metric isn’t readily available, so I appreciate the support from Ganesh! You can follow him on X/Twitter at @OilersNerdAlert.
Again, Clear Victories is defined as a win by two or more goals excluding empty net goals. One additional criterion is that the winning team has that goal differential of at least two with three minutes left in the game. This helps avoid the scenarios where an empty net goal is scored earlier in the period (as we know teams are pulling their goalies earlier), or when a penalty results in a goalie pull.
Included in this table is each team’s Clear Victories Percentage (CV%), which is the number of clear victories divided by their total number of games, along with each team’s Clear Losses Percentage (CL%). I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each team’s points percentage and Clear Victories Percentage to see how teams compare with one another, and if there are teams who might be winning a lot but often by a smaller margin.
The top teams when it comes to Clear Victories Percentage this season are Colorado (44.0 percent), Winnipeg (41.3 percent), Vancouver (39.2 percent), Tampa Bay (39.2 percent) and the New York Rangers (38.7 percent). The league average is 29.6 percent. Edmonton ranks eighth in the league and fourth in the Western Conference, with 38.4 percent of their games being clear victories, sitting just behind Carolina and Florida. They’re right where we would expect them to be based on their points percentage, and confirms what we already know – they have the necessary talent. They just trail behind the rest of the contenders. What also sticks out when looking at the Oilers is that they’ve also lost a lot of games by two goals or more, relative to the other top-end teams. A lot of those two-goal losses happened early in the season, but there was that stretch in February where they weren’t playing very well and losing to teams that were below them in the standings.
Dallas sticks out here as well, as they rank second in the league in terms of points percentage, but only tenth overall in terms of clear victories. I didn’t realize that they’d been winning a lot of close games, which is a little concerning heading into the playoffs. They do have decent goaltending, which is obviously going to be a major factor for them. But this analysis indicates that their talent among skaters isn’t as high as what the rest of the contenders have. Winnipeg is another interesting team as they’ve struggled recently, and rank tenth in terms of points percentage. But their proportion of clear victories remains one of the highest, indicating that their roster has the talent that could turn things around pretty quickly. And looking at Vegas, it’s tough to see them having a lot of success in the playoffs when their Clear Victories Percentage ranks 19th in the league. They have been missing some top end players who could (miraculously) come back for the playoffs, but for now, it’s not looking too good.
Tampa Bay is the one club that could do some major damage if they secure a playoff spot. They’ve been on a tear recently, going 8-1-1 in their last ten games. And it comes as no surprise considering the talent and experience they have across their roster. What’s interesting about them is that their Clear Victories Percentage was ninth highest in the league just a few weeks ago, so the signs were there that the team was going to turn things around.
What really stands out from this analysis is that while the Oilers are showing positive signs and can be considered cup contenders, there are a bunch of other talented teams having great seasons as well. Like any other post-season, it will come down to the competitive edges that a team has developed through roster construction, player development and tactics. And it’ll come through in different ways, including scoring depth, goaltending and special teams. For now, we have a good handle on which teams have the talent and can be considered legit contenders. And this should make for a fairly competitive post-season, especially in the Western Conference.
After a bit of a slump in February, the Edmonton Oilers performed really well in the month of March, collecting 22 points in 15 games – a points percentage of 0.733 that ranked seventh-best in the league.
The club currently ranks second in the Pacific with a points percentage of 0.653 and eighth in the league. Their even-strength performance indicates that they’ll have positive results going forward. Their powerplay continues to be one of the best in the league. And the penalty kill isn’t costing them wins. All positive indicators heading down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue-adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.
Edmonton continues to control the flow of play and scoring chances at even-strength (5v5), posting the third-best Corsi For percentage in the league and the best Expected Goals For percentage. McDavid is the obvious play-driver for the club, but the Oilers are also posting a 53 percent Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals share without him on the ice. The actual results (i.e., goal differential) does slide due to the lack of scoring talent in the bottom six and average goaltending, but there’s still plenty of optimism around the club.
Having said that, the rest of the western conference is looking really strong, especially compared to the east. The top end teams in the west are all posting great even-strength numbers, and look like legit contenders. Colorado, Dallas, Vancouver, Los Angeles, Winnipeg, and now Nashville, are all in the green in terms of shot-share numbers and goal differential.
Compare that to the eastern conference where things are looking a little more wide open. The Rangers, while ranking first in the league, aren’t that great at even-strength, ranking below average when it comes to shot-share numbers and only have a 51% goal-share that ranks 14th in the league. Boston is also struggling to control the flow of play, so its difficult to have confidence in them even though they rank second. And three of the top eight teams in the east have a negative goal-differential at 5v5.
Back to the Oilers, and I wanted to see how the individual players have performed at even-strength since the trade deadline, and if there’s any areas for concern.
As mentioned, the top end of the roster continued to perform really well, and there’s no indication that their results should decline. It’s the rest of the roster that was a little unstable, especially the new trade deadline additions. Henrique as a center on the third line didn’t work very well, and has been spending more time as a winger on the second line, which has boosted his numbers. Carrick is basically what I was expecting, and isn’t even getting time on the penalty kill now. And Stecher has been so-so in the limited minutes he’s played. I can understand that it takes time for players to adjust to a new team and system, but that’s the risk of trade deadline acquisitions.
Also worth pointing out that while he’s been getting better results recently, Connor Brown’s on-ice shot-share numbers continue to be poor. The team allows a lot of chances with him on the ice, and I wouldn’t have a lot of confidence in his play in critical playoff games. He’s been given plenty of opportunities with an array of linemates now, and I do wonder if the team is better off with someone like Holloway or Gagner in the lineup than him.
While the Oilers did manage to add some serviceable players at this year’s trade deadline, I don’t think it was quite enough to give them any new competitive edges among other championship contenders.
The Oilers already have the top end talent at the top of their roster of forwards, along with some good complementary players with unique skillsets spread across the group. But they’ve been lacking enough finishing talent among their depth forwards at even-strength. Without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, the Oilers have done a good job controlling the flow of play (53.54 percent Corsi For percentage) and out-chancing opponents (53.29 percent expected goals for percentage). But it’s all been a waste as they’re only converting on 6.03% of their shots this season, and have been outscored 40-48 – a goal-share of only 45.45 percent.
Adding Henrique does give the Oilers an offensive boost up front, as he’s been a productive player in Anaheim the last few years at even-strength, and fairly consistent. His 1.84 points per hour rate this season is at a top-six level, and is almost identical to his points per hour rate over the previous five seasons (1.83). What’s especially encouraging about Henrique is that his finishing ability has been very good this season, as he’s posted a 12.68 percent individual shooting percentage in Anaheim, which is only slightly lower than the 13.82 percent shooing percentage he’s posted over the previous five seasons. His individual rate of shots this season (5.94) is down slightly from his career norms (6.79), but that might be because of the team he’s been playing on and the lack of talent he’s had to play with.
Speaking of which, the table below lists the Anaheim forwards this season, sorted by their total ice-time, including each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. I’ve also included each player’s on-ice shooting and save percentage along with PDO to see what could be impacting their actual results (i.e., goal differential). A basic heat map has been applied to show how each player compares to their peers.
Henrique looks okay here, as he hasn’t been any sort of play driver for the Ducks this season, but hasn’t been a major drag either. His relative-to-team numbers are slightly down from the previous two seasons, making me think he’ll need someone on his line who can play with defensive responsibility. I’m not totally sold on him being a third line, play-making centerman either. So he might need to be with good play drivers like McLeod and Foegele for the Oilers to get some productivity out of him.
Really not sure what the Oilers are expecting from Carrick whose on-ice numbers had been awful this season relative to his teammates. I think this acquisition speaks volumes to how the Oilers feel about their AHL options, as there are very comparable players in Bakersfield including Gagner, Malone and Caggiula.
On the blueline, the Oilers did add a good seventh defencemen in Troy Stecher, who should be able to fill in as needed, and provide a little bit of offence. His relative to team numbers among Arizona defenceman were fine this season, as he was typically in a bottom-pairing role on a pretty shallow defence core. But I do find it funny that the other depth defenceman on their roster who posted better numbers than Stecher was Kesselring – a late round pick of the Oilers who was traded to Arizona last trade deadline to acquire Bjugstad. Bjugstad, as you may recall, posted some of the worst 5v5 numbers on the Oilers in the 2023 post-season, and was part of the reason why Vegas was able to exploit the Oilers weaknesses. But I digress.
Defence is an area where the Oilers really needed to make a bigger move as the pairing of Nurse and Ceci have not been good this season. And it’s especially concerning heading into the post-season with this tandem as their numbers together over the last three playoff runs have also been rough. In 26 playoff games, 345 minutes together at even-strength, the duo have posted a Corsi For percentage of 46.95 percent and an expected goals for percentage of 47.76 percent. Expecting better numbers from them this coming post-season would be foolish, and it’ll be on the coach now to closely monitor their deployment and forward pairings to get the most out of them.
The area that I felt the Oilers needed to better address was the goaltending. Skinner is having a great season, but I do wonder if he’ll be burnt out by the time the playoffs start. He’s played the seventh highest minutes among all NHL goalies at this point, which makes me think we might see the same performance from him that we saw in the 2023 playoffs. Among 28 goalies, Skinner was 21st with a 0.883 all-situations save percentage. Pickard has been fine as a backup this year, but more should have been done by management to shore up this critical position earlier on in the season.
So while the Oilers did a good job by adding Henrique and Stecher to fill specific roles, I don’t think it did enough to gain any sort of competitive edge over the other cup contenders. And by not addressing the defence and goaltending properly, they might have jeopardized their chances of a longer playoff run. Considering this is McDavid’s ninth season, and Draisaitl is in the last year of his contract next season, a lot more needed to be done.
A little late getting this one together, but I was interested in seeing if forward Jordan Eberle could be a potential trade target for the Edmonton Oilers at the trade deadline. Depth scoring at even-strength (5v5) is currently a problem for the team, as the club is only converting on 5.97 percent of their shots when McDavid and/or Draisaitl aren’t on the ice – well below league average levels (8.57 percent). And while the Oilers depth players are doing a good job at controlling the flow of play (53.56 percent Corsi For%) and out-chancing opponents (53.30 percent Expected Goals For%), they’ve been outscored 40-48 this season – a goal-share of only 45.45 percent.
Eberle is in the last year of his contract with Seattle, and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer as a 33-year old. He’s put up 695 points in 998 games, and also has that playoff experience hockey managers like, appearing in 76 games including two eastern conference final appearances with the Islanders.
Over the course of his career, Eberle has been pretty consistent putting up second-line level points per hour at even-strength. This season, his rate has slipped slightly to 1.63 per hour, down from the 1.91 points per hour he posted in the previous five seasons.
A key driver for his point totals declining is his personal shooting percentage, which is sitting at 7.14 percent this season. Looking at his historical numbers, there’s been some ebb and flow, but he’s been pretty consistent posting a shooting percentage of 11.74 percent over the previous five seasons. I’d like to think this season is an anomaly just based on how consistent he’s been in the past, but age and wear and tear might be catching up to Eberle.
One reason to be optimistic about Eberle’s shooting percentage bouncing back is his continued ability to generate shots for himself. Over the previous five seasons, Eberle has averaged 7.44 shots per hour at even-strength. This season, he’s generating 7.78. Had this seasons rate of shots been lower than his career levels, I’d feel that maybe he was losing a step and not getting himself into plays often enough. But it appears that skillset is still there, indicating that there’s a chance that more of those shots will eventually turn into goals going forward.
Another reason to be optimistic about Eberle remaining productive is his ability to drive offence for the Kraken at even-strength this season. Eberle continues to be a top-six option for his club and his team tends to out-shoot and out-chance opponents more often when he’s on the ice. The table below lists the Kraken forwards this season, sorted by their total ice-time, including each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. I’ve also included each player’s on-ice shooting and save percentage along with PDO to see what could be impacting their actual results (i.e., goal differential). A basic heat map has been applied to show how each player compares to their peers.
Eberle’s numbers really stand out here. He’s posting some of the best shot-based metrics on the team, indicating that his team tends to do better with him than without him.
What’s interesting to note is that Eberle does appear to be having a bit of a bounce-back season. In the previous two seasons with Seattle, he was posting negative relative-to-team numbers – maybe because he was adjusting to a new system and playing some of the highest minutes on the team. Prior to that, he’d been consistently posting positive numbers, indicating his ability to help drive play and his team’s chances of out-scoring opponents. This season, his numbers appear to be back to where we would expect them to be, making me wonder if his productivity could improve, potentially as an Oiler.
Bit of a disappointing run of games for the Edmonton Oilers in the month of February. After a 16-game winning streak to close out January and head into the All Star Break, the club collected 13 points in 12 games (6-5-1), which translates to a 0.542 points percentage that ranked 20th in the league.
The good news is that the Oilers are still near the top of the Pacific division as Vancouver and Vegas also had poor results in February. Vancouver only secured 12 points in 13 games (0.462 points percentage) and Vegas only secured 9 points in 10 games (0.450 points percentage). Calgary, Los Angeles and Seattle all posted points percentages 0.600 and higher in February.
Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue-adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.
The Oilers continue to post strong shot-share numbers at even-strength, including a 55.84 percent Corsi For percentage (CF%) and a 57.72 percent Expected Goals For percentage (xGF%). Because their overall team shooting percentage and team save percentage is at or below league average levels, their goal-share isn’t as high as it should be.
With the trade deadline coming up next week, there’s plenty of issues the Oilers management needs to address to be competitive in the playoffs. Goaltending is still a concern for this club as it ranks 14th in the western conference, and the workload has been very high for Skinner (relative to other starting netminders). Depth scoring is a concern as the club has posted a -6 goal differential without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice this season. The third and fourth lines have done a good job creating chances, but they really lack that finishing ability posting a shooting percentage of only 6.01 percent. That’s a problem considering the Oilers have played 47 percent of their time without one of the two star players. Another way to help the bottom six is to have some more talent on defence that can make passes and plays.
A lot of talk about potential trade options, so I thought I’d share the same information for the eastern conference teams. Just to get a sense of which teams are doing well and which teams should be in sell mode if they’re not already.
Detroit is the one club that’s getting better results than expected. Their shot share number are so poor, but they’re finishing their chances enough to keep them in the race. Florida looks legit, but appears to be having some issues with finishing. I’ll be honest, I thought Boston would be looking strong here, but their success doesn’t appear to be sustainable.
Should be an interesting week heading towards the trade deadline. I’ll be curious to see which teams work on addressing their issues, especially clubs like Florida, Carolina and New York – all of which have cup aspirations.
PS. Just wanted to say thanks to those that continue to read and support my work. I just noticed that February 29th was my eight-year anniversary since I started working with CBC Edmonton as an Oilers analyst. I’ll never forget that day, getting to provide trade deadline analysis in 2016 with host Adrienne Pan on live television. Such a cool experience. I’ve been blogging for much longer, and have had a lot of fun with it. Getting to write with Copper and Blue and being a guest on Lowetide’s show on TSN radio. And now writing for Oilersnation and still doing some radio work with CBC – I feel very fortunate for the opportunities.
After a really nice stretch of success on the penalty kill, which I had just wrote about recently, things have really taken a turn for the Edmonton Oilers since the NHL All-Star break.
A big reason for the Oilers penalty kill success in the first 45 games of the season was their ability to suppress shot attempts and shots on goal. They allowed the third-lowest rate of unblocked shot attempts (66.83 per hour) and the sixth-lowest rate of shots against (48.58 per hour). And the shots that did get through were stopped 87.32 percent of the time, which was right around league average.
But in the ten games since the All-Star break, the rate of shots and chances against has increased significantly. For instance, the rate of shots on goal has increased by 36.1 percent, going from 48.58 per hour to 66.10 per hour. And what’s made things worse is that the goaltending isn’t nearly as good as it was earlier in the season, with the team save percentage dropping by 10.9 percent, so the skaters aren’t getting bailed out when mistakes are happening.
The Edmonton Oilers powerplay continues to be near the top of the National Hockey League when it comes to scoring efficiency, ranking second in the league only behind Tampa Bay with 11.14 goals per hour. This is largely driven by their high-end talent who help generate the fifth highest rate of unblocked shot attempts (91.49 per hour) and the second highest rate of actual shots on goal (66.83 per hour). And their team shooting percentage sits at 16.67 percent. The Oilers actual results this season are right in line with where they’ve been over the last three seasons where they’ve posted 11.28 goals per hour between 2020/21 and 2022/23, which translates to a 17.40 percent shooting percentage.
What’s worth noting is that while the results over the full season have been excellent so far, the team’s productivity has slipped slightly over the course of the season. If we split the current 52-game season in half, we see that the finishing ability of the powerplay is down a few percentage points going from 19.08% in the first 26 games, to 14.05% in the most recent 26 games. This has resulted in the goals scoring rate dropping from 12.17 goals per hour in the first half of the season to 9.90 goals per hour in the second half.
It might feel like things are worse than they actually are based on the couple games where the powerplay didn’t score and how players are reacting on the bench shortly afterwards. But the team is still generating plenty of chances, actually seeing a 10.5 percent increase in their rate of shots when comparing the two segments. And they’re still in the range of the shooting percentage we can reasonably expect them to be at (17.40 percent). My guess is that over the last 30 games of the season, we’ll see their shooting percentage bounce back up to where it should be, and things should be calmer.
The reality is that the Oilers have set very lofty standards for their powerplay, and there’s a lot of pressure that’s been built up because of the team’s inability to win titles with such high-end talent on the roster. The powerplay is a massive weapon for the Oilers and it appears the coaching staff is doing everything they can to maximize its output. Over the last 26 games, the first powerplay unit (using Evan Bouchard as the proxy) has played 80.6 percent of the team’s powerplay time – an increase of 6.60 percentage points from the first 26 games of the season where they played 74.0 percent of the total time The first powerplay has responded well to the additional responsibility, generating even more shots in the more recent stretch of games. Their rate of shots on goal has increased by 19.0% from the first 26 games of the season, going from 64.81 shots per hour to 77.15 per hour. So it should be a matter of time before the powerplay heats up again.
With the Oilers needing to address their depth scoring up front, I reviewed David Perron’s performance and production numbers to see if he could be an acquisition option. Long time fan of his game (and his white skates), but unfortunately it looks like his play has declined.
Perron’s inability to finish chances and his drop in personal production could be blamed on the fact that he’s playing further down the lineup with lesser-skilled linemates. But his poor production is also due to the fact that the Red Wings often spend more time without the puck and in their own zone whenever Perron is on the ice. Again, this is something Perron used to excel at over his career as he often helped drive his team’s ability to out-shoot and out-chance opponents. But it appears the forward has lost a step this season as his relative-t0-team numbers have been in the negatives, indicating that he may be a drag to his team instead of a driver like he used to be.
The SuperFan 