Goaltending for the 2015-2016 Season

/ sunilagni / 3 Comments

ranford-maskIssue: The Edmonton Oilers must solidify their goaltending for the upcoming 2015-2016 NHL season.

Background

The Oilers finished 28th this past season. allowing the most goals at even-strength, while finishing 26th in goals-for. Their Corsi-for (at even strength, score adjusted) was 47.3%, 24th in the league, while their percentage of scoring chances was 45.6%, ranking them 26th in the league.

Goaltending was a key contributor to the Oiler’s issues this past season. The tandem of Ben Scrivens (28 years old) and Victor Fasth (32) finished last in adjusted save percentage at even strength. Of the 48 goalies who played a minimum of 1,000 minutes in 2014/2015, Scrivens and Fasth finished 46th and 48th, respectively (Source: War on Ice). Below is a summary of their performance.

Age Games Save % (Adj) QS%
B. Scrivens 28 57 90.88 0.373
V. Fasth 32 26 90.36 0.417

Please note, adjusted save percentage takes into account the location of the shots faced by the goalie. Quality starts calculates what percentage of games the netminder gave his team a  chance to win (Source: Hockey Abstract). The league average is roughly 0.530.

Current Status

  • Scrivens has one year remaining on his contract with the Oilers, who will pay him $2.3 million in 2015/2016. Fasth will be an unrestricted free agent as of July 1, 2015, coming off a contract that paid him $3.4 million in his final season (Source: NHL Numbers).
  • The Oilers have the following goaltenders in their system:

Key Considerations

  • The salary cap will be increasing from $69 million to $71.5 million starting next season. Teams like Chicago, Boston, New York and St. Louis, who have players with sizable contracts, as well as prospects needing new contracts, may struggle with cap issues.
  • Goaltending does not have to be a large financial commitment to ensure success. Anaheim, Washington, Detroit and Tampa Bay were in the bottom five in terms of spending on goalies, and managed to make the playoffs this past season (Source: NHL Numbers)
  • Goaltending performance tends to decline with age (Source: Globe and Mail). According to one review, “goaltending development tends to peak around 23 and maintains in top form until 26” (Source Pension Plan Puppets).
  • The acquisition and eventual signing of Scrivens was based on his potential, as he had performed relatively well in LA and Toronto. There is a chance that Scrivens can bounce back next season and challenge for the starting position.
  • The Oilers have not established an NHL-calibre defence core for the 2015-2016 season yet. At the end of last season, Justin Schultz (23 years old) and Oscar Klefbom (20) were handling top pairing minutes, with the former struggling to produce despite the favorable deployment.

Option 1: Acquire an experienced goalie through free agency.
Risk: Low        Cost: Medium/High

To assess the options, I searched for the free agent goalies who played more than roughly 1,000 minutes and had respectable save percentages and/or quality starts. The cost of free agency is typically high due to the volatility of the market.

A. Niemi
Season Team Age Games TOI Save %
(Adj)		 Save %
(High and Medium
Danger Shots)		 QS%
2010/2011 S.J 27 60 2,813.8 93.45 88.84 0.617
2011/2012 S.J 28 68 3,166.2 93.25 88.62 0.529
2012/2013 S.J 29 43 2,034.5 93.08 88.14 0.674
2013/2014 S.J 30 64 2,949.1 92.37 86.78 0.469
2014/2015 S.J 31 61 2,899.2 92.83 87.17 0.542
M. Neuvirth
Season Team Age Games TOI Save %
(Adj)		 Save %
(High and Medium
Danger Shots)		 QS%
2010/2011 WSH 22 46 2,069.1 92.57 87.86 0.477
2011/2012 WSH 23 38 1,593.2 92.02 86.92 0.500
2012/2013 WSH 24 13 576.3 91.46 84.80 0.583
2013/2014 BUF/WSH 25 15 650.5 92.69 89.18 0.692
2014/2015 NYI/BUF 26 32 1,477.0 93.13 87.66 0.531
J. Enroth
Season Team Age Games TOI Save %
(Adj)		 Save %
(High and Medium
Danger Shots)		 QS%
2010/2011 BUF 22 14 619.3 92.94 86.25 0.538
2011/2012 BUF 23 26 1,098.0 93.13 89.46 0.682
2012/2013 BUF 24 12 490.5 93.7 89.93 0.778
2013/2014 BUF 25 28 1,241.1 93.45 89.78 0.538
2014/2015 DAL/BUF 26 50 2,302.4 92.34 87.33 0.429

Option 2: Acquire an experienced goalie through trade.

Risk: Medium        Cost: Medium/High

Because teams are either up against the cap or have an excess of capable goalies, established netminders may be available this summer, so it would be worth assessing the potential trade options. This option would require dealing existing assets, either players or draft picks, and may leave a gap in other areas of the roster.

C. Anderson
Season Team Age Games TOI Save %
(Adj)		 Save %
(High and Medium
Danger Shots)		 QS%
2010/2011 OTT/COL 29 51 2226.8 92.45 87.56 0.592
2011/2012 OTT 30 63 2724.6 93.02 87.64 0.567
2012/2013 OTT 31 24 1086.2 94.59 89.33 0.708
2013/2014 OTT 32 53 2321.2 92.85 88.06 0.500
2014/2015 OTT 33 35 1597.1 93.63 89.81 0.571
B. Elliott
Season Team Age Games TOI Save %
(Adj)		 Save %
(High and Medium
Danger Shots)		 QS%
2010/2011 COL/OTT 25 55 2362 90.96 83.33 0.333
2011/2012 STL 26 38 1737.8 94.73 91.29 0.778
2012/2013 STL 27 24 1029.8 92.68 87.79 0.600
2013/2014 STL 28 31 1293.8 92.29 87.92 0.600
2014/2015 STL 29 46 2021.7 92.83 88.84 0.600
C. Crawford
Season Team Age Games TOI Save %
(Adj)		 Save %
(High and Medium
Danger Shots)		 QS%
2010/2011 CHI 25 57 2686.5 93.46 89.09 0.618
2011/2012 CHI 26 57 2538.8 92.41 87.06 0.491
2012/2013 CHI 27 30 1372.1 93.98 89.39 0.679
2013/2014 CHI 28 59 2738.6 92.98 89.12 0.554
2014/2015 CHI 29 57 2676.9 93.83 88.73 0.696

Option 3: Acquire a goalie that has limited experience but has potential upside.
Risk: High       Cost: Low

This option would involve the most risk, and would involve extensive collaboration with the scouting department and possibly further data analysis. A number of unproven goalies have excelled in the right situation such as Ben Bishop (TB), Devan Dubnyk (MIN) and Jonathan Bernier (TOR). The key will be to keep the cost low and refrain from dealing high-end prospects or future first round picks.

C. Talbot
Season Team Age Games TOI Save %
(Adj)		 Save %
(High and Medium
Danger Shots)		 QS%
2013/2014 NYR 26 21 961 94.24 90.32 0.842
2014/2015 NYR 27 36 1689.5 93.51 89.65 0.500
M. Jones
Season Team Age Games TOI Save %
(Adj)		 Save %
(High and Medium
Danger Shots)		 QS%
2013/2014 L.A 23 19 862.3 95 93.2 0.722
2014/2015 L.A 24 15 626.5 92.31 87.84 0.455
A. Raanta
Season Team Age Games TOI Save %
(Adj)		 Save %
(High and Medium
Danger Shots)		 QS%
2013/2014 CHI 24 25 1115.1 90.59 84.35 0.545
2014/2015 CHI 25 14 659.5 94.54 90.8 0.667

Recommendations

The Oilers must solidify their goaltending in order to compete for the playoffs next season. This will be costly as the team lacks organizational depth, and has failed in developing a netminder on their own. The team must explore all options, including free agency and trade.

Having reviewed the options and the players available, it would be best if the Oilers moved forward with one established goalie, supported by a netminder that has the potential to be a starter. The team will have to keep the cost of goaltending low as the team must acquire defencemen this summer, likely through free agency.

Ben Scrivens is a good-to-average goalie with numbers to indicate that he has the potential to bounce back and possibly push for the starting position. It would not make sense, at this point, to acquire another goalie like Talbot or Martin, who are in a similar situation as Scrivens.

B. Scrivens
Season Team Age Games TOI Save %
(Adj)		 Save %
(High and Medium
Danger Shots)		 QS%
2011/2012 TOR 25 12 545.2 91.66 87.80 0.455
2012/2013 TOR 26 20 808.5 92.33 86.34 0.588
2013/2014 EDM/L.A 27 39 1728.3 93.43 89.59 0.629
2014/2015 EDM 28 57 2650.4 90.88 86.20 0.373

The Oilers must acquire a proven netminder such as Neuvirth through free agency, or Elliott through trade. Both Niemi and Crawford would be expensive acquisitions, with the former likely commanding a term that takes him to retirement. It may be beneficial for the Oilers to acquire a player that has familiarity with the western conference, and can handle a higher proportion of high-quality shots and scoring-chances against.

Whichever goalie the Oilers acquire must be placed in a position to succeed. The team must improve the defense by acquiring at least two established defencemen this summer and find an experienced coach that can maximize this teams potential. Moving forward the team has to establish a long term plan and developmental strategy for prospects to ensure that the club is not in this situation again.

The McDavid Effect

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment
BklbK7ICQAEfipd

Source: TSN.ca

When Bill Daly turned the golden card, I honestly didn’t even hear the words (might have zoned out). I just saw the card and laughed maniacally for a good 15 minutes, frightening my kids in the process. I was happy to hear McDavid would be coming to Edmonton. But I was laughing at what the fallout would be for the roster, for the fans and for the city. And especially what the perception and outrage would be outside of Edmonton.

The negativity towards the team by outsiders is warranted. This team has been pitiful for almost a decade, so the thought of McDavid heading to a poorly managed organization will fire up a lot of people. And the negativity will grow similar to how the Penguins get taunted because they have Crosby and Malkin. The hate towards Edmonton is real folks, and it’s gonna get worse once McDavid in the lineup.

Getting a talented player like McDavid is going to put pressure on management to get their act together. Get a goaltender. Get a couple defencemen. And get a coach. Surround this “generational talent” with the right players, because the entry-level years are going to fly by. And like Darcy mentioned in the Lowdown with Lowetide roundtable, McDavid will be commanding good money once the three years are done, and it’ll be around the time that Hall and Eberle are finishing up their mega-contracts. The pressure will be from fans and from the entire league to ensure this player does well, so the Oilers have moved towards adding experience to the front office.

What the addition of McDavid also does is improve the Oilers chances of signing some free-agents who may not have considered Edmonton a possible destination. And the Oilers increased their chances even more by bringing in Chiarelli, who can leverage his network to connect with players, or even rival GMs if he chooses to go the trade route.

The roster will have to be revamped as soon as possible, pushing those that were MacTavish’s acquisitions (i.e., Schultz, Nikitin) towards the exit. I’m hoping that Chiarelli moves forward building off the success of the existing minor league program, and refrain from bringing in say, his Boston/Providence connections. Lateral moves, something that happened when Eakins was coach, really aren’t necessary.

Chiarelli as GM gives me a lot more confidence in Oilers management. He’s the first GM hired by the Oilers who has past experience as GM. Plus he has a familiarity, and a relationship, with managers across the league, something MacTavish was still in the process of building towards. I didn’t mind the hiring of MacTavish as I thought he’d be able to bring some new ideas and apply something from his graduate school experience. But really, he should’ve been placed in an assistant GM role first before making the jump. Similar to what Steve Yzerman did with Detroit before moving on to Tampa Bay.

A lot of changes have been made because of McDavid and the kid has yet to play a game. We’re already feeling the impact as fans, and I think there’ll be even more to come especially with player personnel  this summer. And if the off season changes are this big, imagine what impact McDavid will have on his teammates and the overall success of the on-ice product when the season starts.

This should be fun.

Recommended Links

Old Boys Club Pronounced Dead – Copper and Blue

Beautiful Sunday – Lowetide

Bottoms Up: The Kool-Aid Kid – Oil Acumen

Is…Is This Happiness? – Black Dog Hates Skunks

Edmonton Oilers Shouldn’t Expect Connor McDavid to Match Sidney Crosby’s Rookie Scoring – Cult of Hockey

Mieux Respirer – Lowetide

Saving Justin Schultz

/ sunilagni / 2 Comments
Source: Edmonton Oilers

Source: Edmonton Oilers

One of the most glaring weaknesses on the Oilers this past season, and the year prior, has been the blueline. Both seasons under MacTavish have started and ended without a complete, competitive, NHL caliber defense core.

One member of the Oilers defence who has taken a lot of flak, for good reason, has been young Justin Schultz.

As you recall, Schultz leveraged an existing clause in his contract with Anaheim to leave the Ducks, who had drafted him 42nd overall in the 2009 draft, to become an unrestricted free agent, coming straight out of college. A number of teams expressed interest, with the Oilers being his chosen destination.

If you were his agent, you saw the obvious need on defence in Edmonton, and recognized the ample opportunity available for Schultz in terms of ice time and linemates up front. In his three seasons with the Oilers, he has been given an absurd amount of ice time for a prospect, spending the vast majority of time with the high end talent up front. He’s been labelled as an offensive-defenceman since college, so the Oilers have tried their best to put him in a position to succeed.

Unfortunately, things just haven’t gone well for Schultz. Despite the ice time, over the years and the offensive zone starts, especially this year, Schultz has struggled to produce both in terms of points and possession (Source: War on Ice).

20122013 20132014 20142015
Games 48 74 81
Goals 4 9 6
Assists 7 10 13
Points 11 19 19
Points per 60 0.82 0.89 0.77
% of Offensive Zone Starts 47.95% 45.17% 62.85%
Corsi For % 42.99% 41.69% 49.24%
Corsi For per 60 47.11 45.33 54.01
Corsi Against per 60 62.47 63.42 55.69
Shots For % 42.05% 42.17% 50.01%

It’s clear that the Oilers rushed Schultz into the NHL, giving him top minutes in his first three seasons but with little support around him, unlike other comparable college players. He’s an excellent skater and can move the puck well, especially in the offensive zone. But his defensive lapses and poor passing out of his own zone are a sign of inexperience and undeveloped skill. Ideally, he should be in the minors working out these things, but instead he’s being paid, and paid quite well, to learn the position at the NHL level.

Having said that, we have to consider that this defencemen is only 24. We know it takes longer to learn this position, with most hitting their primes much later than say a winger or a centerman.

So what I did was take a look at the top 10 defencemen by zone starts (minimum 250 mins played) just to see if there are comparables to Schultz. The idea being that maybe there were others that had similar numbers as Schultz despite the high percentage of offensive zone starts. And maybe they improved later on or teams found a way to get more out of the player. Note: Corsi is based on Score adjusted formula.

2014/2015 (Defencemen, 5v5)
Name Age Team ZSO% Gm TOI P60 CF% C+/- SF%
Jamie.McBain 26 L.A 69.40 26 288.38 1.25 53.82 37.07 55.40
David.Rundblad 23 CHI 68.66 49 582.18 1.24 56.04 127.40 52.72
Jakub.Kindl 27 DET 67.79 35 460.07 0.78 58.45 133.44 56.49
Justin.Schultz 24 EDM 62.85 81 1483.86 0.77 49.24 -41.43 50.01
Dan.Boyle 38 NYR 61.54 65 1040.77 0.69 53.96 149.55 53.88
Xavier.Ouellet 21 DET 61.41 21 312.95 0.58 58.59 88.29 55.32
Brian.Campbell 35 FLA 61.01 82 1444.07 0.54 54.08 204.08 55.02
Victor.Hedman 23 T.B 60.88 59 971.88 1.36 54.68 159.00 54.94
Aaron.Ekblad 18 FLA 60.70 81 1385.90 0.95 53.49 168.91 55.05
Brayden.McNabb 23 L.A 60.32 71 996.67 1.14 57.74 259.39 57.34
2013/2014 (Defencemen, 5v5)
Name Age Team ZSO% Gm TOI P60 CF% C+/- SF%
Torey.Krug 22 BOS 65.87 79 1114.61 1.02 56.55 274.34 55.88
Michal.Rozsival 35 CHI 65.04 42 624.79 0.77 59.66 201.64 59.74
John.Moore 22 NYR 63.42 74 1005.41 0.60 51.42 51.85 52.89
Eric.Gelinas 22 N.J 62.99 60 828.93 0.80 52.65 68.32 49.58
Nick.Leddy 22 CHI 62.95 82 1132.65 1.01 57.82 309.39 57.23
Kevan.Miller 25 BOS 62.08 47 710.35 0.42 52.60 61.99 51.88
Ryan.Murphy 20 CAR 61.69 48 713.42 0.67 47.43 -69.48 45.32
Dennis.Wideman 30 CGY 61.60 46 794.11 1.06 44.86 -152.64 48.55
Sheldon.Brookbank 32 CHI 61.31 48 584.19 0.72 52.01 41.82 51.57
Carlo.Colaiacovo 30 STL 60.80 25 329.73 0.55 53.08 34.84 53.09
2012/2013 (Defencemen, 5v5)
Name Age Team ZSO% Gm TOI P60 CF% C+/- SF%
Marc-Andre.Bergeron 31 CAR/T.B 74.16 25 266.18 0.68 54.35 42.32 54.10
Alec.Martinez 25 L.A 64.29 27 360.77 0.50 59.55 112.56 59.64
Peter.Harrold 29 N.J 63.75 23 336.75 0.18 60.67 102.58 56.47
Michal.Rozsival 34 CHI 63.07 27 419.07 1.43 61.89 165.05 62.58
Bobby.Sanguinetti 24 CAR 62.06 37 468.82 0.51 56.12 109.72 54.92
Patrick.Wiercioch 22 OTT 61.90 42 525.44 0.91 58.04 160.11 55.73
Brian.Campbell 33 FLA 60.91 48 923.54 0.45 49.65 -11.39 48.90
Paul.Postma 23 WPG 60.71 34 429.88 0.70 52.32 35.50 49.62
T.J..Brennan 23 FLA/BUF 60.71 29 419.41 0.86 47.71 -34.63 47.47
Derek.Morris 34 PHX 60.00 39 654.12 0.64 52.54 62.27 51.33

Oof.

Well, what we see here is that if you’re starting that much in the offensive zone, you SHOULD have a respectable Corsi For % and a decent shot share. And if you don’t…well, that’s a bad sign. Schultz stands out, along with players like Dennis Wideman, as the few that got poor results despite the favorable minutes. Note: I did go back to 2006 and got similar findings.

The Oilers management group appears to be enamored with young Schultz, handing him a $3.75M contract last summer, while pushing an established defencemen like Jeff Petry out of the organization. If this management group, including the new members on board, feel that Schultz is part of the plan’s moving forward, they’ll have to do a few things.

  1. Manage the expectations of the player by choosing actions and words carefully. Avoid Norris trophy references and label Schultz for what he is: a prospect with second pairing capabilities and a good powerplay option. Reduce his minutes and deploy more experienced players in the offensive zone. Which leads to point 2…
  2. Get legit, NHL defencemen to take on the top minutes. These players have to be in their late 20’s with at least 300 NHL games played. Offensive zone starts are hard to come by, so when you’re there, have your best available option out there. At the top of my list would be Andrej Sekera. And the more I read about him, I’m learning more about his old defensive partner in Carolina, Justin Faulk (we got McDavid, so hey, why not try to land both of them?). An experienced defenceman could also partner with Schultz, and stabilize the play when Schultz is joining the rush.
  3. Improve the goaltending and reduce the amount of time the team is trailing. In a situation where a team is pressing for a goal, players like Schultz are relied on heavily. Hopefully Scrivens can bounce back from a pitiful season, but I’d bring in a Cam Talbot type to stabilize the netminding.

Schultz has a lot of work to do this summer in terms of his defensive work, especially in his own zone. There were a few too many times he looked lost, often chasing forwards from the front of the net to the corner, leaving a passing lane wide open. Offensively, he created chances, but he was often caught up ice, allowing a 2-on-1 going the other way.

It’s unfortunate that Schultz has transitioned from being a prospect to being more of a project for the Oilers. The good news is, teams can have an offensive defenceman on their roster, even with defensive flaws. They just have to make sure the rest of the defensive roster is well built with a legitimate number one pairing. The Oilers have an opportunity to resurrect a young player’s career, but only if they can make the right moves this summer.

Oilers Defence in HERO Charts

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment

Oilers_superheroBelow are the HERO (Horizontal Evaluative Rankings Optic) charts for the Oilers defencemen. These charts have been created and maintained by Domenic Galamini and serve as a fantastic visualization tool. He’s clearly put some thought into what metrics are used and how the data is laid out for forwards and defencemen.

As with any analytics, these charts do not serve as an end-point for discussion and really should be used as a starting point for further analysis. Please note, the charts include the past three seasons (2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15).

I found that the charts were pretty accurate in labeling the Oilers defencemen as first, second or third pairing. Obviously there’s other factors to consider, but I think the metrics give some good insight into the players.

One note from the Own the Puck:

What does vTO mean? It stands for “versus Teammates and Opposition”. For example, GF60 vTO is calculated as follows… ( GF60 – Teammate GF60 ) + ( League Avg GF60 – Opposition GA60 ). All stats used in the calculation of vTO metrics are adjusted for zone starts by nixing play that occurs within 10 seconds of off and def zone faceoffs.

Andrew Ference

FerenceHERO

Nikita Nikitin

NikitinHERO

Justin Schultz

SchultzHERO

Oscar Klefbom

KlefbomHERO

Mark Fayne

FayneHERO

Martin Marincin

MarincinHERO

Oilers Positives and Negatives 2014-2015

/ sunilagni / 1 Comment
Source: NHL.com

Source: NHL.com

It was a pretty dismal season with the Oilers finishing 28th and securing yet another high draft pick. It’s unfortunate for fans and the city, as this will be the 9th consecutive year that the club failed to make the post-season. Meanwhile, five other Canadian teams, including Calgary of all teams, will get set for playoff hockey.

The negatives of the season are pretty straight forward: the team was poorly built in September (at defence and center), lost a lot, had yet another coaching change, had poor goaltending, and traded away TWO NHL players in Perron and Petry. What the club does with the acquired draft picks remains to be seen, but it’ll take years to replace the talent and skill-set of those two.

This might shock some, but there were some positives from this season. This is not meant to put any sort of spin on the Oilers losing ways, but is intended to highlight what I think are things the team can build on going forward.

  • Nail Yakupov looks like an NHL player. There’s no question he wants to be the go-to guy every night and will be a star player in a few years. For now though, he’s still finding his way, often getting outshot when he’s on the ice. But he’s making small improvements each game, which will hopefully mean we’ll see a complete player in the next year or two. His new two-year deal is fair for both sides and reflects well on the team’s overall perception of Yak.
  • Anton Lander has arrived. We’ve been waiting for a while for this guy to be an NHL player, haven’t we? From his draft day to his time in OKC, we heard how good and smart of a player he was, and the leadership qualities he brings to a team. It was about time he got some NHL linemates and a chance to succeed. His ability to play the tougher minutes and have a presence in front of the net gives me a lot confidence in our center depth next season. Just hoping that the Oilers still add another center, who could play wing and transition to center if an injury occurs.
  • We also saw Nugent-Hopkins make some significant strides in his game. He may not have reached that “star” status quite yet, but we can expect big things from him in the next year or two. Night and day difference compared to last season, especially how he was along the boards and in puck battles. We’re actually entering next season with a legit number one center.
  • A couple of our key prospects were given the opportunity to develop. Both Nurse and Draisaitl spent time in juniors and have done extremely well. Both are playing pivotal roles in their respective clubs playoff runs, and should be in top shape at training camp. I’m just hoping the team is patient with both of these players and acquires NHL caliber talent this summer so both can develop at the AHL level.
  • MacTavish is headed into his third year as GM and has some key decisions to make this summer. Coaching, goaltending and adding some pieces to the defence core is hopefully at the top of his list. He has, in my opinion, taken some well-deserved lumps, for good reason, as some of his decisions have backfired. The promotion of Schultz, the signing of Nikitin, the acquisition of Fasth and Scrivens have all proven to be poor decisions on his part. His most recent press conference, I thought, demonstrated his maturity as GM. There weren’t any phrases like “bold moves” uttered. Instead MacT tried to downplay things and keep things as vague as possible. Frustrating from a fan’s perspective, absolutely. But keep in mind these press conferences are not just for fans, but for sponsors, players, agents and rival GM’s. I think part of the reason why he didn’t make a deal was because he just said too much publicly when he first got hired. Hopefully he plays things a little tighter to the vest.

Following the end of last season, my only positives were that the Oilers acquired veteran players and MacTavish took some risks, The positives following this season were much better. Doesn’t make anything better considering how poorly they finished. But the fact that our players are progressing is something worth noting. We’ll have to wait and see if MacTavish can acquire the right players this summer and really get this club back on track.

Talking Oilers, Laurent Brossoit, OKC Barons and Schultz on the Lowdown with Lowetide

/ sunilagni / 5 Comments

laurent-brossoit-03252014Had a chance to discuss the Oilers with Lowetide last Friday. We covered a wide range of topics including the goaltending moving forward, the Barons and the draft, among others. Check out this post from Lowetide that frames some of the discussion first.

The full segment is here, but unfortunately it doesn’t load properly right now. I’ll make sure I update this post once the glitch is corrected by TSN.

Couple notes that I thought would be worth sharing:

  • Laurent Brossoit was outstanding against the Sharks making 49 saves in his NHL debut. It was definitely one of the rare highlights of the year, but I think it’d be wise to temper our expectations until he really proves himself at the AHL level. Jonathan WIllis has a nice piece on him, describing Brossoit’s history and development.

  • I mentioned that I thought Anton Lander was the most impressive call-up from the Barons this season. He’s taken on the tougher minutes this year and has produced reasonably well. He’s got some job security now, signing a 2-year deal, so I’m hoping he can take full control of that second/third line center.
  • Todd Nelson had done a lot to demonstrate his ability to coach at the NHL level. If the Oilers don’t retain him as head coach, I can see another NHL club reaching out to him either as a head coach or an associate. And whatever the Oilers decide to do, they have got to start the season with an NHL roster. We’ve seen a lot of coaches, experienced and knowledgeable men, come and go, each having a poor roster to work with. The Oilers have to do a better job this summer assembling a roster.
  • My knowledge of the draft this year is limited to the top 10 or so prospects. I don’t watch junior hockey, so a lot of what I know is based on what the experts say and what the stats are telling me. And based on what I think the Oilers should do, I’m thinking the club should pursue a center with the third pick and consider moving either him or Leon to acquire a top defenceman. I’d prefer drafting another defenceman like Noah Hanifin, letting him develop for a few years and then reaping the benefits. But this is MacTavish’s third year as GM, so he may choose to pursue assets that can be moved right away to get NHL talent now. Defencemen, in my opinion, take a lot longer to develop, so a prospect at center might be more attractive to a rival GM. Just my thoughts.
  • The thought of the Oilers signing an expensive, veteran netminder like Niemi this summer makes me absolutely cringe. One, it brings up memories of Khabibulin getting dehydrated in his first game with the Oilers. And two, it’ll push the club against the cap when those dollars should really be spent on defence. I mentioned purusing goalies like Cam Talbot or Martin Jones, with the former being preferred, as possibilities. Both are young with some upside, but this may scare away MacTavish who already gambled on Fasth and Scrivens based on similar logic, and failed. The issue with goalies is that they typically don’t age gracefully, and you probably want to avoid guys like Niemi who have been in decline.
  • I also shared my thoughts on Justin Schultz, who I really believe can still be an NHL defenceman. Unfortunately, the club has pushed him into the first pairing, taking on tougher opposition, and his deficiencies are on display nightly. The Oilers have got to push both Schultz and Klefbom down the depth chart by bringing in at least two defencemen who are in their primes. There are far too high expectations on Schultz, all due to what the team has said about him and how they’ve used him. If you’re interested, I wrote about the Oilers mishandling of Schultz here and here.

A big thank you to Allan for having me on his show. His blog is always a must-read and I’m looking forward to his Realistic Expectations series this month.

Oilers’ Coaching History

/ sunilagni / 4 Comments
renney

Source: Edmonton Journal

I thought it’d be interesting to compare the past five seasons to assess how the team has done under different head coaches. I’ve learned more about War On Ice’s “score-adjusted” filter recently and think this’ll be how I analyze possession stats from now on. If you’re looking to understand how score adjusted is calculated, definitely check out Micah’s article Adjusted Possession Measures.

Basically, it factors in the score throughout the game. Teams play differently when they’re leading or trailing, and their possession stats (Corsi/Fenwick) reflect that. Trail, and your game plan changes to attack more. Lead, and you might shut down a bit.

Just to give a sense of how often the Oilers were tied, trailing or leading over the past five seasons, see below. Source: Puck on Net. One quick note: I consider Nelson’s coaching reign to have started on December 30th, 2014. That was his first game without MacTavish with him behind the bench.

Down 2 Down 1 Tied Up 1 Up 2
  Time Spent Corsi Time Spent Corsi Time Spent Corsi Time Spent Corsi Time Spent Corsi
Renney
(2010-11)		 22.9% 55.7% 22.0% 47.7% 32.2% 44.2% 13.2% 38.6% 9.6% 42.5%
Renney
(2011-12)		 15.3% 52.6% 18.7% 52.5% 38.6% 47.4% 15.5% 41.1% 12.0% 39.0%
Krueger
(2012-13)		 17.3% 50.7% 19.3% 47.8% 33.6% 42.3% 13.3% 41.0% 16.4% 42.6%
Eakins
(2013-14)		 22.1% 50.6% 20.8% 46.4% 33.3% 44.0% 14.6% 40.2% 9.2% 38.0%
Eakins
(2014-15)		 23.6% 54.7% 22.1% 53.6% 39.3% 51.2% 12.4% 39.9% 2.6% 36.3%
Nelson
(2014-15)		 17.3% 51.5% 17.7% 53.5% 35.3% 45.5% 22.1% 43.0% 7.6% 43.9%

Here we see that Eakins’ club was trailing more this year, so they might have been playing more aggressively, thus inflating their overall possession metrics. He still did a good job suppressing shots, which we’ll get to in a minute, but we should apply the score-adjusted filter to get a true sense of his team’s performance.

Below is a high-level breakdown for each coach at even strength. Consider this a starting point, since there are some obvious factors such as the actual roster and individual player performance.

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
  Renney Renney Krueger Eakins Eakins Nelson
Number of games 82 82 48 82 31 46
Pts% 0.378 0.451 0.469 0.409 0.306 0.456
PDO 99.1 100.2 100.7 99.4 97.1 98
On ice shooting % 7.8 8.2 8.3 8.0 6.7 7.4
On ice save % 91.3 92.0 92.4 91.4 90.4 90.6
Offensive Zone Starts 49.8 50.4 47.4 44.3 50.8 49.6
Corsi For % 45.1 47.0 44.2 43.2 49.1 46.4
Goals For % 42.1 47.6 47.1 41.8 39.3 41.1
Goals +/- -46 -14 -10 -50 -25 -33
Goals For/60 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.0
Goals Against/60 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.8
Shots For % 44.8 47.0 44.9 43.6 48.0 47.1
Shots +/- -364 -213 -218 -466 -56 -128
Scoring Chances For % 44.2 46.4 44.2 44.9 49.0 43.7
Scoring Chances +/- -396 -246 -252 -360 -26 -280
Scoring Chances For/60 23.8 24.7 25.8 24.5 24.4 24.9
Scoring Chances Against/60 30 28.6 32.5 30.1 25.4 32.2

Source: War on Ice

Couple thoughts:

  • Tom Renney made some very nice improvements in his second year as head coach. At the time, I thought he was going to be back for a third year, but Tambo had other plans. I thought he would’ve made a good long-term coach considering what he was able to accomplish with such a brutal roster.
  • I know there’s this perception that Ralph Krueger was a great head coach and should not have been fired to make way for Eakins. I think people tend to forget about some of the losing streaks that year, including the brutal April they had. I really think the hiring of Eakins, who wasn’t liked very much by the local media, increased Krueger’s popularity.
  • Eakins somehow managed some decent possession stats this season and had a way of suppressing shots and scoring chances. I’d be interested in how he did it and where the weaknesses were from his point of view.
  • Nelson did an okay job given the roster he had and the lack of experience on the blueline. He’s done an excellent job with guys like Lander and the other OKC grads. Based on his past experience at the minor league level, he should definitely be considered for a head coaching spot somewhere in the NHL, if not in Edmonton.
  • That goaltending this year. Just. Brutal. Worst save percentage at even strength in the NHL.

Something  to consider when reviewing these stats is how poorly the rosters were built each year. This year, for instance, it was obvious that the Oilers were going to struggle as they didn’t have enough centermen to start the season and the lack of experience on defence. Each coach hired came to the team with decent resumes and experience. Eakins and Nelson both coached for a few years in the AHL and had assistant coaching experience at the NHL level. Krueger was the head coach of Swiss Hockey and played a key role in the national teams growth. And Renney had just finished four seasons as head coach of the Rangers, making the playoffs each year. Unfortunately for all of these coaches, the management failed to provide them with a complete and balanced roster.

Here’s hoping the next coach of the Oilers will be put in a situation to succeed by management. That means adding experience to the blue line, adding a centermen or two, and finding good goaltending this summer.

Eberle, RNH and “Star” Status

/ sunilagni / 6 Comments
Source: National Post

Source: National Post

From my point of view, both Eberle and RNH have had excellent seasons. We knew what Eberle was capable of, having scored 76 points in 2011/2012 and 65 points last season. RNH had a few more question marks, as he still needed to develop physically to really reach that next level we expect of a number one pick. Both guys produced well and look to be part of the Oilers future going forward.

Craig MacTavish made a few comments about these two before the start of the season (original interview is no longer available, so thanks to Robin Brownlee for transcribing part of it):

“We all know Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle are really good players but what we don’t know is whether they are star players,” MacTavish told McKenzie as part of a wide-ranging interview you can read here.

“They have a lot of room for growth…but they’ve had enough experience and enough time. I think, in fairness to them, they want this more so than anybody else. We need to see whether they’re going to be good players or whether they’re going to be star players.” 

Source: Oilers Nation

To me, star players are those that not only finish in the top 10 in scoring within their position, but are also productive at even-strength where the majority of the game is played. A player’s time on ice has to be considered to really gauge their talent relative to their peers, as well as their zone starts. Taylor Hall for instance, is a star player because he’s been in the top 10 when measuring his total points and point production per 60 minutes of play at even strength.

I decided to breakdown the numbers for both Eberle and RNH to see if they’ve reached star status, or if they’re still working towards it. Here’s how Eberle has done over his five years with the Oilers (even-strength):

Jordan Eberle 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Games 69 78 48 80 81
Points 29 54 27 38 41
Points/60 1.8 3.1 2.3 2.0 2.0
Corsi For %(All, score adj) 47.4 47.7 50.0 44.8 50.0
Corsi For % Rel 4.1 1.7 8.7 2.4 4.0
Scoring Chances For % 48.7 49.7 51.6 46.2 49.0
Shots For % 47.3 47.6 51.7 45.3 49.3
Offensive Zone Starts % 48.5 59.7 49.3 55.2 62.7

Source: War on Ice

What’s encouraging about Eberle is his consistency when it comes to point production (P/60) over the past few years. And good things tend to happen when he’s on the ice…something we’ve come to expect of him. He’s also received a higher percentage of offensive zone starts this year, and he often plays with star players. He was 14th in even strength scoring this season among right wingers (minimum of 250 minutes played), up from 15th place last season. But he’s 36th overall in terms of points per 60 among right wingers, up from 41st the year before.

And here’s how RNH has done over his four years with the Oilers (even-strength):

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Games 62 40 80 76
Points 28 11 31 37
Points/60 2.0 1.1 1.6 1.9
Corsi For %(All, score adj) 48.2 49.2 43.8 49.3
Corsi For % Rel 1.9 7.0 1.1 2.8
Scoring Chances For % 50.5 51.0 46.2 48.5
Shots For % 49.2 50.5 44.9 49.2
Offensive Zone Starts 61.5 50.9 58.1 61.8

RNH’s even-strength stats have definitely improved, but not as dramatically as I thought they would’ve just based on what I saw on the ice. He has received a lot more offensive zone starts, thanks to guys like Boyd Gordon and Anton Lander doing some heavy lifting. His overall point total including powerplay points are identical from last season (56 total points), but his even strength production has definitely improved. At even strength, he ranks 17th overall in points among centers, up from 42nd last season. In terms of point production, he ranked 38th among centers, up from 80th the year prior.

For comparison’s sake, here are Taylor Hall’s numbers.

Taylor Hall 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Games 65 61 45 75 52
Points 25 31 33 53 24
Points/60 1.6 2.1 3.0 2.8 1.8
Corsi For % 47.5 51.2 49.8 43.2 49.0
Corsi For % Rel 4.8 5.6 8.2 0.2 3.5
Scoring Chances For % 47.2 50.3 49.3 45.2 47.9
Shots For % 46.0 50.4 51.4 44.8 46.2
Offensive Zone Starts % 51.2 56.7 54.0 56.6 55.7

He finished 2nd overall among left wingers at even strength last season, and 3rd overall in points per 60. In 2012-2013, he was 3rd overall in points and points per 60 at even strength. He’s obviously had a rough season this year, but I think we can expect him to bounce back to star-level status soon. Let’s hold off on those trade rumors, shall we?

Thoughts

I’d be curious to hear what MacTavish thinks of RNH’s and Eberle’s 2014/2015 season. I don’t think they’ve reached that “star-level” status that he alluded to back in September, but I think, with RNH especially, that potential is still there. We also can’t overlook the consistency of Eberle’s play, who really has established himself as a top line NHL winger.

I see both players as integral parts of the Oilers future and hope that they, along with Hall and Yakupov, could be that core to build around. Here’s hoping the club can solidify a coaching staff for next season, get some help on the blueline, and really put these young forwards in a position to succeed.

Recommended Links

RE 14-15 Jordan Eberle: Blue Sky – Lowetide

Thoughts on the Oilers: Goaltending, Coaching, Personnel, Mo’ Money

/ sunilagni / Leave a comment
Source: Edmonton Oilers

Source: Edmonton Oilers

This season can’t end soon enough. The Oilers are 24-43-13 with two games remaining, and are destined to finish 28th.

Goaltending

The Oilers will be looking for a new goaltender this summer with Fasth heading to free agency and Scrivens settling into a backup role. I thought Fasth would be the guy to take over, but alas, the Oilers will likely dump a pile of money at someone like Antti Niemi. His numbers are nothing great, but because of his experience and Stanley Cup ring, the Oilers, or another desperate club, will make a pitch for his services.

Good/average goaltending is really all a team can ask for from their netminder. It’s really more important to have an experienced defence core, which to me, makes or breaks a goalies career. If the Oilers want average goaltending, they really should save the money and avoid someone like Niemi. Instead the club should pursue someone younger with upside like Cam Talbot (NYR) or Martin Jones (LA). Unfortunately, MacTavish tried this last season with Scrivens and Fasth, and failed, so it’s likely he’ll chase an experienced goalie. I’m hoping the Oilers’ analytics team can uncover a goalie whose career has been good, but value has dropped because of a poor year. Darcy Kuemper (MIN) comes to mind.

Coaching

This is going to be a tough decision for MacTavish. Do you go with Nelson who has done an okay job as interim head coach or do you chase one of the top coaches who might be available after their respective playoff runs? MacTavish struck out once going with a younger coach, so my guess is he’ll make sure his next hire is a veteran guy. Not to say that Nelson or Eakins aren’t good candiates. Both have done excellent work at the AHL level providing guidance to developing players, and are worthy of NHL positions. I just imagine MacTavish going down a safer route, so he faces less criticism if/when things go south.

Size

It seems every time the Oilers lose, I come across comments online and the radio about how the Oilers need to be bigger.

Chasing a single trait like size, or even speed or skill, is extremely short sighted and is often influenced by our own personal biases and experiences. When assessing anything, whether it be a player or a car or an idea, it’s critical to remain open minded. The Oilers, for whatever reason, have chased size (i.e., coke machines) drafting or acquiring players who had limited potential (JF Jacques and Brad Isbister immediately come to mind). It’s easy to find size..just sort the list by weight and height. But it’s harder to get a big player with strong complementary traits like skating, puck control and endurance. It’ll be interesting to see how the scouting staff does this summer.

Katz

A lot has been made of how terrible the Oilers have been since Katz officially took over the club in 2008. David Staples from the Cult of Hockey put some numbers to it to highlight just how bad they’ve been relative to the rest of the league.

At the end of the day, there really is nothing we can do with who owns the team. The NHL, and other professional leagues are just a time-filler for owners. They all have other legitimate businesses running, and pro-teams are really just for fun for them. It always makes me laugh when someone refers to hockey as a “business”. It’s a cartel. Similar to the drug trade. They have their own rules, their own measure of currency, and their own economy and operational structure. So to hope that another owner comes along and takes the game more seriously is just wishful thinking. You can hope Katz can hire the right managers and staff, but it’s clear that he goes with people he knows personally and has an attachment to. Can’t do much about that, so we kinda have to roll with it.

Side note: I’ve come across a lot of interesting research on social behavior and norms, cognitive psychology stuff. One thing that’s apparent is how money impacts our decision making, the norms that guide our behavior and our relationships with others. It’s possible that Katz’ deep pockets, and early promises to spend to the cap,  may have altered how the Oilers assess and acquire players. There was a time when the Oilers actually pieced together a nice roster (see 2005/2006, Oilers). But something changed along the way where they now rely heavily on free agency and less on true scouting and asessement. Just a thought.

Recommended Links

Don’t Worry, It’s Almost Over – The Copper and Blue

The Character of the Oilers – Oilers Rig

Patience and Prudence in Development – Lowetide

Edmonton Oilers Player Grades, Game 71-80 – The Cult of Hockey

Corsi Didn’t Help Tyler Dellow or Kyle Dubas – Hockey in more than 140 Characters

Money Changes Everything – Dan Ariely

In Hall We Trust

/ sunilagni / 4 Comments
Source: EdmontonOilers.com

Source: EdmontonOilers.com

I can’t believe I have to write this.

Taylor Hall is one of the top players in the game today. Despite playing for one of the worst franchises in recent history, Hall has been a very productive player. He’s about to complete his fifth year in the NHL, playing for his fourth coach, and there appears to be some question about his value.

To judge a player, we can supplement what we see on the ice with both traditional stats as well as some of the more modern metrics (i.e., posession, scoring chances, etc).

From what I’ve seen, Hall is an absolute beast when it comes to attacking the opposing net. He’s very good along the boards, excellent at gaining the zone, not afraid to take a hit, and he can finish. Now for the numbers.

Overall

GP G A PTS PPG PPA SHG SHA GWG PIM SHOTS
2010-11
65
22
20
42
8
3
0
0
4
27
186
2011-12
61
27
26
53
13
8
0
0
7
36
207
2012-13
45
16
34
50
4
10
0
0
4
33
154
2013-14
75
27
53
80
7
10
0
1
1
44
250
2014-15
50
13
23
36
3
3
0
0
0
40
146
Total
296
105
156
261
35
–
0
–
16
180
943

Not bad right? 261 points is second only to Tyler Seguin (279 points) of the 2010 draft class, but keep in mind, Seguin has played 56 more games (Source: HockeyDB). In 2012/2013, he was ninth overall in scoring. In 2013/2014, he was sixth in total points, behind Crosby, Getzlaf, Giroux, Seguin and Perry.

Even Strength

The true value of a player is how well they do at even strength. Here’s a look at how he’s done, as well as the number of points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.

Season
Games
Goals
Assists
Points
G/60
A/60
P/60 
TOI/Gm
2010-11
 65 10 15 25 0.6 0.9 1.6 14.8
2011-12
 61 13 18 31 0.9 1.2 2.1 14.4
2012-13
 45 12 21 33 1.1 1.9 3.0 14.5
2013-14
 75 16 37 53 0.8 1.9 2.8 15.2
2014-15
 50 6 18 24 0.4 1.4 1.8 15.9
Total
 296 57 109 166

In 2012-12, Hall was sixth in the league in points-per-60  (at even strength) behind guys like Crosby, Toews and Staal. In 2013-14, he was sixth again, behind guys like Getzlaf, Perry, Seguin and Benn. In terms of productivity at even strength, Hall is one of the best in the NHL.

You can also average his assists per 60 & points per 60 over 4 years (2011-15) to see that he’s the 4th best playmaker & 8th overall points producer in the NHL (thanks to Walter for finding that).

Advanced Stats

Since entering the league, Hall has been given a lot of offensive zone starts and has delivered. He regularly sees the top competition, but has managed to produce at a very decent clip. What we can also glean from his advanced stats is how vital Hall is to the Oilers success. For instance, the Oilers are more likely to have possession of the puck when Hall is on the ice. The team typically gets their decent share of shots and scoring chances when Hall is on the ice, and the team doesn’t do nearly as well when he’s on the bench. It should also be noted that Hall’s shooting percentage is usually pretty consistent, and its drop may be the reason why he has struggled this season. I think it’s safe to assume that shooting percentage will get back to normal very soon. I’ve included a full table of his stats in the Appendix.

Here’s a visual of Hall’s deployment and performance last season. You can see here, and in his other four seasons (Appendix below), that he gets a decent amount of offensive zone starts,faces tougher competition, and still manages to produce. (Source: Hockey Abstract’s Player Usage Charts)

Oilers 2013-2014

Trade Hall?

If the right player becomes available, every single player on this roster should be made available. The Oilers are clearly in need of a few defensemen, so it shouldn’t surprise us to hear trade rumors involving Hall. However, if there is any thought of moving Hall for any other reason (i.e., “character” issues, “winning culture”), then a few things need to be considered.

To move Hall, the Oilers would need a player that would take over the minutes from Hall AND produce at that clip. Unless a player coming back is someone that can crack the top 10 in points-per-60 at even strength, you’d be nuts suggesting Hall be moved. Benoit Pouliot has been a fantastic addition, but he would not be able to match any of Hall’s point totals. This roster is weak enough as it is, so moving away a legitimate NHL player, at a very cap friendly salary, is completely absurd.

I read a couple comments on Twitter questioning Hall’s ability to stay healthy. First of all, this is professional hockey. Crazy shit can happen in a split second when you’re cruising around the ice on sharp blades and taking regular contact. And we knew before the Oilers drafted Hall what kind of player he was going to be: hard skating, drives to the net, a bit wreckless, but effective at carrying the play in the right direction. If playing a little on the edge is what will keep Hall productive, then we have to live with it.

Final Thoughts

I will say that my perception of Hall changed this season, not because of his performance, but because of the emergence of RNH. Going into the season, I saw Hall as the face of the franchise; someone that would be captain in the next few years. Now, I still see Hall as a vital part of the club, but not nearly the same captain/franchise material as RNH. This might be a reason why others see Hall as expendable. Just a thought.

Also, the Edmonton Journal needs to stop with their ridiculous polls. It’s bad enough that a recent one found that people would trade Hall, but then they had to mention Hall’s twitter account when they tweeted their findings, just to make sure he knew how fans felt about him. Classy.

Being a top player, Hall will always have misinformation about him being published and spread. It’s always important to question the content, who is saying it, and the timing, Really, as long as the Oilers keep losing, the rumours will continue,..that’s just how it works. And let’s not twist Hall’s placement on the second line with Lander and MIller as some sort of demotion. That to me is a sign of depth, done in large part by the signing and performance of Pouliot.

Recommended Links

RE 14-15 Taylor Hall: Midnight Rider – Lowetide

Appendix

Below are his stats using the Hockey Abstract’s Player Usage Charts.

Oilers 2010-2011

Oilers 2011-2012

Oilers 2012-2013

Oilers 2013-2014

Advanced Stats Summary for Taylor Hall

Source: War on Ice

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

2014-15

Gm

 65 61 45 75 50
G 10 13 12 16 6
A 15 18 21 37 18

P

 25 31 33 53 24
TOI/Gm 14.8 14.4 14.5 15.2 15.9
PRODUCTIVITY

G/60

 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.4

A/60

 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.4
P/60 1.6 2.1 3 2.8 1.8
Penalties Drawn (Diff) 21 6 10 8 -4

PDO

 99.5 100.6 100.7 100.7 100.4

PSh%

 6.8 9 10.2 9.6 6.4
ZSO% 51.2 56.7 54 56.6 55.9
ZSO%Rel 2.1 9.4 9.2 17.4 9.1
POSSESSION, CHANCES, SHOTS

Scoring Chances For %

 48.1 51.3 49.7 46.1 49.4

SCF% Rel

 5.5 5.4 7.8 1.6 6.2
Corsi For % 48.8 52.3 50.4 44.4 51.1
CF% Rel 4.7 6.5 8.6 0.4 4.2
Shots For % 47.1 51.1 51.8 45.9 48.1
SF% Rel 2.5 5.4 10 2.2 1
Goals For % 45.7 52.6 53.8 47.8 49.2
GF% Rel 1.7 9.7 10.5 8.8 13.7

.