The Oilers’ Issue with Faceoffs II

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Something that’s been of interest to me has been faceoffs and some of the odd numbers the Oilers have been posting this season.

In November when the Oilers had that poor start, an area that the coaching staff wanted to improve on was faceoffs. I’m of the sense that faceoffs are important, but tend to be overvalued as there are other events in a game that have a greater impact on scoring and possession that aren’t tracked. Regardless, since the coaching staff has talked about faceoffs throughout the season, and how much the team has been working on them, I thought it would be worth looking at the latest numbers.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Thoughts on the Oilers: Blocking shots, Moneyball Experiments, the Expendables, Ice Time + Radio Spot

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Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. Full audio below, starting around the 7:40 mark.

 

Couple thoughts:

Shot Blocking

As frustrated as I was with RNH breaking his hand trying to block a shot, I can’t say I was too surprised. McLellan has never been averse to having his skilled guys kill penalties. And this past summer when I was looking into the Sharks history with McLellan behind the bench, one thing I found was that his teams blocked a high proportion of shot attempts at even-strength.

ShotBlocking.jpg

Keep in mind, the Sharks were one of the best possession teams with McLellan behind the bench, and often did well suppressing shots. Regardless, his team’s were committed to blocking shots and did so often. McLellan even reaffirmed the importance of blocking shots last week and said it was something that was expected of players (Source: 630 CHED).

Moneyball

Have to say that I’ve been pretty impressed by Kassian’s play thus far. He’s been fortunate in that he’s been able to slide into a roster spot with Hendricks having been suspended. Partnered with Letestu, Kassian has not been sheltered at all playing against top lines and is actually faring well when it comes to shot attempts for and against when he’s on the ice.

I’m especially fascinated by Kassian’s performance because it’s the second “moneyball” type experiment Chiarelli has conducted. The first being Anders Nilsson who was playing in the KHL before being acquired by the Oilers and replacing Scrivens. At this point, Kassian is a low-risk investment by the Oilers that has the potential to impact the roster makeup for next season. Which brings us to the next topic..

The Expendables

IF Kassian can continue playing well and keep things together off the ice, he could become a permanent fixture on the left side with Letestu, basically replacing Matt Hendricks. Now a couple things could go down. Hendricks could be moved down to the fourth line wing and slide to center as needed, which is something I’m in favor of. That would essentially be the end of Gazdic who really hasn’t established himself as a full time player. The other player who I think should be moved if Kassian is signed is Korpikoski who hasn’t been at all effective this season. He still has one more year on his deal that pays $2.5 million. Money that could be spent on a forward that can actually have a positive impact on his team.

Having said that, because of his age and his perceived value at the trade deadline, it would not at all surprise me if the Oilers move Hendricks instead and keep Korpse. Hendricks will be 35 this summer and has one more year remaining on his contract which will pay him $1.85 million. He’s played very well in a bottom six role this year, but isn’t likely in the Oilers long term plans.

One could also make the argument that if Kassian does well and is signed that Benoit Pouliot should be the one traded. First off, it makes no sense to get rid of a productive player like Pouliot, who is also one of the few players who forechecks really well. He does come at a hefty price tag of $4.0 million per season for the next three seasons. But that’s money well spent when you consider his scoring rates and impact on team possession. Side note: it only occurred to me today that Chiarelli once traded away Pouliot when he was in Boston to make room for a younger player in Caron (Source: Boston.com). It’s a different situation today, so I do not expect history to repeat itself.

Ice Time

Micah Blake McCurdy recently tweeted out graphs that display player ice time over the course of the year. Highly recommend checking out Micah’s work at Hockey Viz.

HockeyViz_OilersD.png

HockeyViz_OilersF

In the first graph, we see how Nurse has been getting a ton of ice time, and it really hasn’t been at all reduced despite his struggles. Can’t really blame him as there aren’t many options for McLellan. Also interesting to see Schultz getting some more ice time, which I personally think is a way to showcase him a bit more leading into the deadline. He hasn’t been getting as many offensive opportunities as last year, but his deployment has definitely changed in the last few weeks.

As for the second graph, the only thing that stands out is RNH’s reduced ice time after his flu bug (thanks to Bruce McCurdy for pointing that one out). We also see here that Letestu is getting a lot more ice time as the season has wore on. He’s definitely found some nice chemistry with Kassian and Pakarinen in the last few weeks, so hopefully that continues. Definitely something to keep any eye on as this could alter the Oilers roster going forward.

As always, let me know if you have any feedback.

Oh and for fun:

 

We’re Still Talking Playoffs, eh?

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With the Pacific Division being as terrible as it’s been this season, there have been some rumblings that the Oilers could, somehow, someway, sneak into the playoffs. Currently, the Oilers are six points back of third place Arizona in the division. Having Connor McDavid and Oscar Klefbom back in the very near future will definitely improve the team, but let’s not kid ourselves. The Oilers aren’t good enough to make the playoffs.

After the Oilers brutal start to the season, going 3-7, my colleague Scott Reynolds looked into how many other teams over the past ten seasons collected only six points in their first 10 games and who had a poor goal differential. The good news is that there were a small handful of teams that went on to make the playoffs or at least push for a playoff spot following a rough start. But from what I found, those teams that started poorly had strong underlying numbers but had scoring and goaltending issues that sunk them early on. The teams that bounced back were good possession teams that saw improvements in their PDO to get back into the playoff picture.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Kassian’s Performance and Options Going Forward

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Following last night’s loss to the Lightning, McLellan was asked what forward Zack Kassian was bringing to the team and what the coach’s overall thoughts were regarding his game:

Zack is a pretty honest player. That’s something that I’ve figured out in his three or four games with us. He wants to do things well. He wants to do things right. His power game and his ability to power his way through and play physical is important. Nice to see him get rewarded with a goal tonight. As time goes on here, I can see myself and the coaching staff trusting him more and more. – Todd McLellan (Source: 630 CHED)

Now Kassian has played relatively well in his four games as an Oilers, scoring a goal and an assist so far. Paired with Mark Letestu, Kassian has averaged just over 15 minutes of ice time at even-strength per night and has been a decent possession player (51.45% Corsi For, score adjusted, +0.62 CF Rel). I’m a little surprised that McLellan was musing about trusting him more, so I took a look at the ice time he was getting, who he was going up against, and how he was faring when it came to shot attempts (Source: Natural Stat Trick).

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Thoughts on the Oilers: Talbot contract, Kassian’s minutes, Nurse + Radio Hit

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Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss all things Oilers. Audio below.

Couple thoughts:

Talbot

The $4 million per season was a slight overpay, but I can’t say I’m too surprised. Talbot and his agent held a lot of power going into negotiations considering that the Oilers already invested two picks in him and his impending UFA status. I’m not convinced that Talbot would’ve received $4 million in free agency, considering how the other “goalies with potential” did last summer.

If you’re interested,  I wrote about Talbot just a few days before he was signed over at The Copper & Blue. I basically looked at Corey Schenider’s 2012 contract with Vancouver and Martin Jones contract with San Jose last summer as comparables. They were different situations, but I thought those three goalies had some similarities worth exploring.

Like most people, I’m pretty high on young Laurent Brossoit. He’s getting a lot of starts in the AHL right now and playing very well. In my opinion, he should get another full year in Bakerfield before pushing for the backup role. That would mean either signing Nilsson to a value contract or dipping into free agency this summer when there are always options for cheap goaltending.

The other issue is that Laurikainen might not be ready to be a full time starter in the AHL yet. Condors head coach Fleming had this to say recently regarding pushing Brossiot too soon (Source: Oilers Nation)

I think it would be a step back in his development. He needs to play and he needs to play 75% of the games. We have a young guy in (Eetu) Laurikainen and from an organizational standpoint he can benefit and learn from working with ‘LB’ this year much like LB learned from (Richard) Bachman last year. If you asked ‘LB’ he’d be the first one to admit that watching Bachman play last year throughout the season and the playoffs that he learned a lot. You’ve got to pass that on – pay it forward. ‘LB’s playing a lot and he’s learned a lot and he now passes that on to Eetu and from an organizational standpoint everybody benefits. To bring ‘LB’ up now and have him sit on the bench would just be a big step back in his overall development to where they want him to be coming out of this year.

Kassian

The most recent acquisition has been playing steady minutes alongside Mark Letestu for the most part and hasn’t looked out of place in his first two games. Against Calgary, Kassian got a ton of ice time and played against the top six Flames forwards for the most part.

Here’s a graph courtesy of Hockey Viz that shows us how often Kassian started a face-off shift and where he started. He’s definitely not being sheltered, but we’ll have to see what happens with Hendricks, who is Letestu’s regular line mate, gets back in the line up tonight.

deployment-2015020668-EDM

Corsi

Interesting question came in during our segment this morning in regards to Corsi and why a high possession rating hasn’t translated into wins for the Habs. Having a high Corsi For % does not guarantee success…it does improve your chances of winning but, as the Kings could attest to last season, there’s a lot of randomness that has to be factored in. Highly recommend checking out this piece from Arctic Ice Hockey for more on the limitations of Corsi.

As for the Habs, since December 1st, they’ve only had 9 points and the worst goal-differential in the league despite having a Corsi For% (score adjusted) of 53.2%. The problem for the Habs is that their PDO (on-ice shooting % + on-ice save percentage), which measures luck, is the worst in the league at 94.1. Their on-ice save percentage at even-strength is dead last at 90.6% during that stretch. And their shooting percentage since December 1st is the second worst in the league at 5.5%. Prior to December 1? Their PDO was above 102, third highest in the league.

As always, let me know if you have any feedback.

Finding Shooters

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Since McLellan took over as head coach of the Edmonton, he and his coaching staff have preached the importance of shot volume and attacking the net looking for rebounds. Early in the season, McLellan explained why shot volume was important when it came to scoring chances and goals:

Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone. Source

Based on some work I did over the summer, I found that the Sharks got a higher proportion of shot attempts from their defence core compared to the rest of the league. The Oilers were just below average when it came to defensive contributions, and I expected this to increase once McLellan took over.

So far, that hasn’t been the case. Here’s how Oiler defencemen have done per 60 minutes when it comes to individual shot attempts, unblocked shot attempts (Fenwicks) and shots on goal  at even-strength over the past three seasons. I went with score-close situations to remove score effects, as teams play a different style whether they’re leading or trailing, which can skew the numbers. Players are ranked by individual Corsi For per 60 (iCF/60), highest to lowest (Source: War on Ice).

2012/13 – Edmonton
Name Gm TOI/Gm iCF/60 iFF/60 iSF/60
J. Schultz 48 9.49 9.09 6.45 4.21
Jeff.Petry 48 9.58 8.74 6.39 4.04
Corey.Potter 33 7.17 8.11 5.58 3.04
Mark.Fistric 25 9.38 5.63 3.84 1.79
Nick.Schultz 48 8.83 5.24 3.68 2.55
L. Smid 48 9.36 5.21 3.61 2.00
R. Whitney 34 7.74 5.02 3.65 3.19
2013/14 – Edmonton
Name Gm TOI/Gm iCF/60 iFF/60 iSF/60
Jeff.Petry 80 9.67 8.76 5.89 3.41
P. Larsen 30 6.96 8.04 5.46 3.16
J. Schultz 74 10.09 6.91 5.14 3.30
A. Ference 71 10.08 6.87 4.44 3.27
M. Marincin 44 9.05 5.87 3.61 1.81
Anton.Belov 57 7.46 5.65 3.53 2.12
2014/15 – Edmonton
Name Gm TOI/Gm iCF/60 iFF/60 iSF/60
N. Nikitin 42 9.80 12.24 9.18 7.29
O. Klefbom 60 11.50 11.13 7.22 4.78
Keith.Aulie 31 7.63 9.64 6.60 4.57
Mark.Fayne 74 9.31 9.14 4.53 3.40
M. Marincin 41 9.90 9.02 5.02 2.96
J. Schultz 81 10.84 8.75 6.49 4.44
A. Ference 70 10.41 7.57 5.27 2.80
2015/16 – Edmonton
Name Gm TOI/Gm iCF/60 iFF/60 iSF/60
D. Nurse 36 12.16 11.79 8.36 6.17
Eric.Gryba 40 10.53 10.11 5.70 4.13
B. Davidson 30 10.35 9.66 6.57 3.67
O. Klefbom 30 11.66 9.43 6.35 4.46
A. Sekera 44 11.41 8.37 5.74 3.94
Mark.Fayne 32 10.33 7.26 4.18 2.54
J. Schultz 31 11.35 7.16 4.43 2.90

Interesting stuff this season as it appears young Darnell Nurse has been the most efficient at getting shots on goal. This could be why the staff is overlooking his dreadful shot share numbers and playing him a ton regardless of the score situation. We also see here that Mark Fayne is not generating shots at all, and could be why he was demoted to the AHL earlier this season.

Regarding Schultz, it’s important note that although it may look like he’s not shooting often, he has still received a very high proportion of high danger scoring chances in his career. So he’s pinching instead of shooting from the point and, attempting at least, to be a finisher. That’s been drastically scaled back under McLellan, which, combined with his low shot attempt rate, is why I think he might be on his way out by the trade deadline.

The Oilers’ lack of shooting and success of getting the pucks on net for forwards to capitalize on rebounds has not gone unnoticed by the coaching staff. Just last month, assistant coach Jay Woodcroft explained what he and the staff were expecting from Schultz.

The one area we continue to emphasize with Justin is the willingness to continue to shoot the puck. The ability to hit the net when you do shoot the puck. And letting him know that, and encouraging him that, when you do shoot that creates offence for everybody. Even if that first shot doesn’t get in, if it gets through, that’s what leads to the second chance or third chance. But it’s vital that that shot gets through from the top. Source

And here’s how the Sharks defencemen have done over the past few years. You’ll have to factor in Brent Burns’ role as a forward and defencemen in the past here, which really makes his numbers stand out. Again, these are ranked by individual Corsi For per 60 (iCF/60) at even-strength when the score is close.

San Jose – 2012/13
Name Gm TOI/Gm iCF/60 iFF/60 iSF/60
Brent.Burns 30 8.63 16.91 12.74 9.04
Matt.Irwin 38 9.38 14.31 7.58 5.39
Dan.Boyle 46 10.39 10.80 7.16 3.89
J. Demers 22 9.97 10.39 7.38 3.83
Justin.Braun 41 9.07 9.20 5.65 2.58
Brad.Stuart 48 10.51 8.56 4.76 2.26
M-E.Vlasic 48 10.63 8.47 5.06 2.82
San Jose – 2013/14
Name Gm TOI/Gm iCF/60 iFF/60 iSF/60
Brent.Burns 69 8.31 23.64 18.93 12.34
Matt.Irwin 62 9.88 12.63 8.52 6.17
M-E. Vlasic 81 10.23 11.51 7.39 5.00
Justin.Braun 82 10.16 10.95 6.63 4.61
Brad.Stuart 61 10.15 10.07 5.04 3.39
J. Demers 75 9.32 9.70 6.86 4.55
Dan.Boyle 75 9.82 8.88 6.11 4.81
S. Hannan 56 9.16 7.37 5.73 3.62
San Jose – 2014/15
Name Gm TOI/Gm iCF/60 iFF/60 iSF/60
Brent.Burns 82 10.88 17.16 10.90 6.66
Matt.Irwin 53 9.09 11.96 7.72 5.60
M-E. Vlasic 70 10.62 10.01 5.81 4.04
M.Tennyson 27 9.25 9.37 7.21 4.57
Justin.Braun 70 10.71 9.04 5.44 3.76
John.Scott 38 4.86 7.80 4.55 3.58
S.Hannan 58 9.02 7.45 5.27 3.90
M.Mueller 39 9.40 6.87 4.09 2.29
San Jose – 2015/16
Name Gm TOI/Gm iCF/60 iFF/60 iSF/60
Brent.Burns 42 12.06 20.73 14.33 9.59
M.Tennyson 23 5.83 12.53 8.95 5.82
M-E. Vlasic 39 11.01 10.76 7.13 4.47
Justin.Braun 40 10.84 10.24 6.64 5.26
B. Dillon 42 9.96 9.90 6.74 4.16
Paul.Martin 39 11.30 4.90 3.27 1.77

Compared to the Oilers, the Sharks defencemen are, and have been, a lot more efficient at getting shots through, which could be why they’ve historically ranked high when it comes to possession, scoring chances and goals. The Sharks play a much different style than the Oilers, but my hope is that McLellan will eventually apply his successful tactics in Edmonton.

bruins-vs-phantoms-30

Source: Bruins Daily

A player that I think should be of interest to the Oilers this coming off-season is 28-year old defencemen Matt Irwin. He was with San Jose up until this season when he signed with the Bruins for one year at $800,000. After an okay preseason and two regular season games, the Bruins demoted him to Providence and he hasn’t been back to the NHL since. As of today, he leads the farm team in points among defencemen with 19, dressing for  34 games.

Now there’s no question that Irwin had a very rough two games with the Bruins. But it also sounds like GM Don Sweeney knew there was a possibility that Irwin could lose out to one of the younger players in the Bruins system.

Matt Irwin coming on helps provide depth for our grouping. … But we’ve got some younger players at some point in time have to be given an opportunity if you believe in them.  Source

Irwin’s overall style of play and underlying numbers aren’t anything extraordinary. He did well as a bottom pairing guy, playing 153 NHL games and 181 AHL games while with the Sharks organization. He was a decent option on the powerplay, and managed to hold his own in even-strength play. (More details on his past performance can be found over at Oilers Nation and The Copper & Blue).

What’s most intriguing about Irwin is his ability to shoot the puck and get it on net. In his three seasons with the Sharks, he ranked near the top among defencemen when it came to shot attempt frequency (see tables above). And he was always ranked behind Burns who played a lot of minutes as a forward, so it’s hard to compare the two. Irwin’s also very familiar with McLellan’s system and could potentially bring some of the volume shooting that the coaching staff has been preaching about and often repeating after games.

It’s also worth noting that among the 247 defencemen who have played over 60 games since 2012, Irwin ranks quite high when it comes to shooting frequency. Below are the top 30 defencemen ranked by iCF/60, with Irwin ranking 10th overall. Sorted by iFF/60, Irwin ranks 11th and by iSF/60, he’s 9th. Again, these are for even-strength play when the score is close.

Name Games TOI/GM iCF/60 iFF/60 iSF/60
Brent.Burns 223 10.01 19.60 13.96 9.06
E. Karlsson 225 12.92 14.74 9.58 6.32
D. Rundblad 83 6.73 13.33 7.95 5.16
A. Edler 226 11.10 13.25 8.88 6.22
D. Byfuglien 235 11.10 13.23 9.94 6.88
Jake.Muzzin 239 9.89 13.02 8.02 5.48
Torey.Krug 200 9.69 13.00 8.70 6.13
Eric.Gelinas 147 8.58 12.95 8.14 5.62
J. Boychuk 229 10.80 12.93 8.59 6.14
Matt.Irwin 155 9.44 12.79 8.03 5.78
Keith.Yandle 257 10.97 12.47 8.60 5.64
Radko.Gudas 161 10.21 12.19 8.25 5.69
Kris.Letang 175 10.70 12.05 8.11 6.35
Shattenkirk 222 9.92 12.04 7.98 5.45
Jacob.Trouba 175 10.77 12.04 7.58 5.13
D.Hamilton 220 10.12 11.75 8.11 6.23
Kevin.Bieksa 214 11.05 11.70 7.92 5.58
T.Hamonic 229 12.20 11.55 7.28 4.88
Matt.Dumba 115 7.96 11.53 7.40 5.04
V. Hedman 221 10.58 11.34 7.39 5.29
Mike.Green 215 10.45 11.33 7.83 5.45
O. Ekman-Larsson 253 10.90 11.31 7.59 5.27
Cody.Ceci 167 9.55 11.29 7.83 5.72
A.Pietrangelo 256 11.60 11.25 7.74 5.13
R.Murphy 107 9.43 11.18 7.02 4.70

The question might be why the Oilers didn’t go after Irwin last summer when he was a UFA or when he was put on waivers by the Bruins. My thought is that Chiarelli (and McLellan to an extent) wanted to see what they had with the Oilers current group of defencemen before sending anyone away to make room for new players. Now that the Oilers have a pretty good sense of what they have, I think it’s fair to say that there will be changes. As of today, I see Chiarelli keeping Klefbom, Sekera, Davidson and Nurse. Fayne doesn’t appear to fit into McLellan’s tactics and Gryba might have value at the deadline, and is very replaceable.

Now if the OIlers do have room on July 1st, they need to address their shots-from-defencemen issue and consider Irwin as a candidate. This is a player whose value hasn’t ever been that high and has been diminished even further as Irwin has spent over three months in the AHL on an NHL contract. Irwin will be a UFA this summer and could easily be signed to a low-risk, value contract and compete for a roster spot in training camp.

Takeaways

  • The Oilers aren’t getting the same proportion of shot attempts from their defencemen that the Sharks defencemen were providing in seasons past with McLellan behind their bench.
  • Matt Irwin ranked near the top of the San Jose defence roster when it came to shot attempts/60, unblocked shot attempts/60 and shots on goal/60 at even-strength (score close). Among the 247 NHL defencemen who dressed in over 60 games since 2012, Irwin ranks near the top when it comes to shot metrics at even-strength (score close).
  • Irwin will be an undervalued asset next summer, having been sent to the minors after only two regular season games in 2015/16.
  • The Oilers could potentially bring Irwin in on a two-way contract this coming summer and have him compete for a roster spot in training camp. The Oilers could potentially benefit from a player who is familiar with McLellan’s systems and who has had success at the NHL level with this coaching staff.

 

Signing Talbot

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After two straight seasons of finishing in the bottom five of the league when it comes to even-strength save percentage, the Oilers acquired Cam Talbot from the New York Rangers and Anders Nilsson from the Chicago Blackhawksthis past summer. The two have done okay, with each have strong performances sporadically. But the team sits second last in the league when it comes team save percentage at even-strength. At first glance, the two goalies look comparable, each starting 22 games and each carrying a below average adjusted save percentage, which factors in shot location (Source: War on Ice). Among the 30 goalies who have played at least 1,000 minutes this season, these two rank near the bottom, with Talbot ranking dead last using this metric. Please note that I chose Adjusted Save % as it factors in team effects (Source).

NAME GAMES STARTED RECORD ADJUSTED SAVE% (EVEN-STRENGTH)
A. Nilsson 22 10/10/2002 91.89
C. Talbot 22 07/13/2002 90.51

Looking  into the adjusted save percentage month by month (along with the number of games in parentheses), we see that Talbot has improved, while Nilsson has tailed off a bit. Keep in mind, adjusted save percentage ranged from 89.52 to 94.11 last season among goalies that played over 1,000 minutes, which is about 22 games.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Hurry Back Oscar

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The Edmonton Oilers are once again sitting near the bottom of the league, securing a messily 8 regulation wins this season. The team ranks 28th in Goals For% at even-strength with a score-adjusted Corsi For% of 47.4% (Source: War on Ice). Definitely not good enough to compete for the playoffs, but it’s been hard to really judge this team because of all the injuries. Losing Connor McDavid has been significant, but the Oilers have also played a number of games without top six players likeNail Yakupov and Benoit Pouliot and Jordan Eberle for stretches. Injuries are always a part of the game, but it’s hard to dismiss when you’re without some key forwards.

Having said that, it’s been the injury to young Oscar Klefbom that has had the biggest impact on the club. Before going down on December 11th, Klefbom was emerging as the Oilers most effective defenceman, surprisingly, to me at least, at both ends of the ice. My C&B colleague Corey Travers had an excellent post on Klefbom soon after his injurydetailing his performance and confirming his ability to play top pairing minutes.

 I thought it’d be interesting to first see how positive of an impact Klefbom was having on the Oilers’ forwards (the one’s he played at least 100 minutes at even-strength with). And then look at how Klefbom’s absence has impacted the team’s overall defence.
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Thoughts on the Oilers: Loss against Florida, Retribution, Talbot + Radio Hit

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Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. Audio below.

Couple thoughts:

Last night’s game had to have been the third or fourth straight one that was just dreadful to watch. The Oilers cannot sustain any sort of pressure in the offensive zone, rarely picking up rebounds or getting second chances. They may have outshot the Panthers, but they weren’t really a threat around the net. The Oilers are sitting near the bottom of the league when it comes to goals, scoring chances and possession, and I don’t expect much to change until Klefbom and McDavid come back.

 

The hit on Hall was clean in my opinion. I just don’t get why there’s a need for instant retribution, and lacking a quick response is any sort of indication that the team lacks unity or toughness. Hall plays a style that makes him vulnerable to these hits..it’s part of the trade-off to generate offence. If the Oilers want to replace skill with goons, they can’t expect to win. Now if you can find guys that can play physical and have an impact on a nightly basis, and not be a liability, I’m all for it. I’m hoping Khaira can be that guy in a season or two. And I really  wouldn’t spend big money to solve team toughness.

I’m also reminded of this line from Kassian shortly after he broke Gagner’s jaw and the Oilers brought in McIntyre. Loved it.

Also keep in mind that the Sharks management kinda lost their minds last off-season when they thought they needed toughness and signed Mike Brown and John Scott to contracts. Seriously, we should ask Todd McLellan how that worked out for him.

I’m also very interested to see how the team will handle the Cam Talbot contract. He’s been getting better game to game, but it’s hard to judge what his true value is. There’s always that balance between the goalie’s actual value, and how the team perceives his value. The Oilers have already invested two draft picks in him, which really puts Talbot in the driver seat of negotiations. Having said that, the Oilers can point to his record and save percentage and try to portray Nilsson as a candidate for the number one job to drive down the cost. I’ll have to dig into this more, but the three contracts I would point to if I were the Oilers is Martin Jones 3yr/$9M contract with San Jose, Corey Schneider’s 3 yr/$12M contract with the Canucks and Schneider’s 7-year/$42M extension with the Devils. Obviously different situations for each player and team, but based on age and experience, these are the ones I would look at first. Right now, I think Talbot is worth $3.5M per season for four seasons, which would take him through his prime. Based on his play, I don’t think teams will be lining up to sign him as there are always plenty of options in the off-season.

 

Thoughts on the Oilers: Team performance, Nurse, Talbot + Radio Spot

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Joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 on Wednesday morning to discuss the Oilers. Full audio below:

Couple things:

  • After 41 games, the Oilers are sitting at 17-21-3, good for dead last in a very weak Pacific division. The 17 wins ranks them 23rd in the league, but their 8(!) regulation wins is 30th. That to me is an issue. Good teams get things done in regulation and avoid the more luck-driven scenarios like 4v4/3v3 overtime and shootouts.
  • The club has a 47.1 Corsi For% (even-strength, score adjusted – which factors in the score state), which is 25th in the league (Source: War on Ice). The Oilers appeared to make some improvements in November and early December when it came to possession, but that went south pretty fast in recent weeks. As we can see below, their Corsi For% trend at even-strength has remained under 50%, which can be attributed to the significant injuries to Klefbom, McDavid, Eberle and Yakupov, plus the lack of depth on defence.

OilersCorsi

  • Without a doubt, Darnell Nurse has been playing way too high up the depth chart, but I really had no idea his underlying numbers were this bad. I wrote about Nurse’s season so far, and how he compares to other 20 year olds from the past five seasons [Copper & Blue]. I’m still a fan of the player and think he can play at the NHL level today. He’s just not a top pairing player yet. And there’s nothing wrong with that, he’s 20 years old. It’s seriously been reminding me of Ladislav Smid’s first season as an Oiler in 2006. He was also 20 at the time and got a tonne of ice time, despite getting dominated every night by more experienced players. It’s not an ideal situation, so hopefully the Oilers can bring in a at least two legitimate NHL defencemen and allow guys like Nurse to develop at the right pace.
  • If anyone can justify the Oilers keeping Schultz past the trade deadline, I’d love to hear it. Not only has his offence dried up, but he’s clearly not fitting into the coaching staff’s system. In San Jose, a larger proportion of shot attempts came from the blue line compared to the rest of the league. This allowed the forwards to crash the net, make short plays and look for rebounds. As I found a couple weeks ago, Schultz hasn’t been able to get shots on net, having most of his shots blocked or not getting any shots at all. On top of that, Schultz isn’t getting as many high danger scoring chances (chances in close, as defined by War on Ice) as he has in the past, which makes me wonder what his purpose really is. I also found that McLellan isn’t exactly relying on Schultz when the team is down a goal or the game is tied. Graph below is courtesy of Hockey Viz.

Oilers D - deployment-1516-EDM-d

  • Signing Cam Talbot should definitely be on the list of priorities this month. He’s played well for the club, and appears to have shaken off that rocky start which resulted in losing ice time. He has a 90.69 save % (adjusted – which factors in shot location), which isn’t great as it ranks last among goalies with at least 20 games this season. But his save percentage has been trending upwards all season.

TalbotTrend.png

  • I’d be happy if the Oilers could lock him up for 4 seasons at less than $4 million per. I’d prefer to keep the cost low, especially on goalies which tend to be replaceable (outside the elite ones) every summer. Talbot and his agent really do have full control in negotiations, as the Oilers have already invested two draft picks to acquire him and would be foolish to let him walk on July 1st. I’m hoping the fact that Talbot hasn’t started 100 NHL games yet and that there’s a decent backup in Nilsson on the roster, will drive his asking price down a little.

One quick note: if you have any questions about my work or any feedback, feel free to email me directly: sunilagni23 at gmail dot com.