Joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. Full audio clip is here.

Couple Thoughts:

Davidson

It’s been great to see young Brandon Davidson flourish this season as a depth defencemen. He’s one of the few defensive prospects that has come through the OIlers organization and has been able to contribute right away. I thought it was ironic that on the same day that Todd McLellan referred to Davidson as a “steady-Eddie” player, Steady Steve was featured on the Oilers Twitter page as part of the Farewell Rexall Place event.

The great thing about Davidson is that he’s been, for the most part, been playing on the bottom pair with the occasional appearance in the top four. He’s also been effective in all situations and has for the most part had a positive influence on the team’s overall performance (thanks to Zac for the idea).

Davidson is under team control for another few years, so there really should be no rush to throw him into any sort of trade. Hopefully the Oilers can shore up their defence this summer and ensure that Davidson plays in a spot that he can succeed in going forward.

Lander and the bottom six

I’ve been pretty disappointed in not only Lander’s performance this season, but also how the coaching staff has handled the player in relation to the bottom six. I never had high expectations for Lander, mainly because the bulk of his points scored last season were on the powerplay. But I did think he would take another step in his career and establish himself as a strong depth player who could move up in the lineup as needed.

It’s become pretty obvious that the Oilers are ready to move on from Lander. He hasn’t dressed for a game since the all-star game, being healthy scratched now for seven straight games. Even after the club got destroyed in back-to-back games in Montreal and Long Island, the coaching staff saw no need to insert Lander into the roster to shake things up. And recently when McLellan really shook things up, Hall was being centered by Letestu at one point, even though Hall had success last season being centered by Lander.

Really, the Oilers should be moving Hendricks back to his natural spot on wing, and have Lander back at center. Lander has not been productive this season, but you can’t tell me Letestu and Korpikoski have been any better. Lander has also had success this season playing with Pakarinen and Yakupov, so it’d make way more sense going with that on the 3rd/4th line. Letestu should be paired with Kassian (which I thought worked well) with Hendricks as the winger there. Korpikoski should ideally be the odd man out, but I don’t see management allowing that to happen.

Loading up on Centers

I’d really like to see the OIlers load up at center this off season to have depth in the position. Next season should feature Draisaitl, RNH and McDavid as pivots, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Draisaitl play wing with RNH in the middle. This would be similar to how McLellan ran Thornton and Pavelski at times in San Jose, which was highly effective.

The main issue for the Oilers is the lack of stability and production from the bottom six. I’m convinced that moving Korpikoski would solve a lot of the problems, especially when it comes to possession and scoring chances. But the team should still be adding depth players that can contribute, play tough minutes, kill penalties and fill-in WHEN injuries happen. It’s early, but the players that interest me are Kyle Chipchura, Darren Helm and Mike Santorelli (who actually played mostly wing the last few seasons, but can play center). These should not be costly signings, and should be movable contracts if a situation arises.

I’d definitely keep Letestu, but have him shift to wing and move to center if needed. I don’t think he’s been effective at all and would like to see someone else get a shot at the 4C slot. Lander I’d obviously keep, but I don’t think he’s in the long term plans.

Joined Lowetide on Monday morning to discuss the Oilers, including the back-to-back losses, the holes on defence and what to expect in terms of transactions. Full audio clip is below, starting around the 7:30 mark.

Couple notes:

• I really didn’t expect the Oilers to do well in Montreal. Even though the Habs have been terrible for months, they’ve still posted some decent possession numbers (52.7% CF adjusted since December 1st), but have been completely sunk by terrible goaltending (90.7%, last in the league) with Price out of the lineup. They were bound to have a decent game eventually, which they did against an Oiler team that looked gassed in the first period.
• I didn’t think the Oilers stood a chance against the Islanders, especially with Nilsson in net. He’s been dreadful over his last few starts now, with all that talk about head-trajectory training all but forgotten. I was hoping the Oilers could keep it close and show some signs of a bounce back, but I honestly could not find a single positive from the game. Next up are the Devils, who have been pretty bad possession wise, but have one of the best team save percentages in the league. This one is going to be boring and probably won’t end well for the Oilers.

@sunilagni @Lowetide Could you answer why schultz played after his performance in Montreal? But Nurse didn’t? Nurse was better on Sat right?

— Brandon Parsons (@Bparsonsproject) February 8, 2016

• Without a doubt, Schultz was the worst player on the ice in Montreal. Quick summary of the defence core’s time-on-ice and the shot attempts for and against (Source: Natural Stat Trick)

• Schultz was caught in the wrong position so many times in Montreal and made some glaring mistakes in his own end. I actually thought McLellan would replace Schultz with Clendening for the game in Brooklyn. Instead, it was Darnell Nurse who sat out the next game. Nurse was actually okay that game, but he’s on the left side, making him an easy candidate to swap out for Reinhart to play against his old teammates. Here’s how the defence core did in Brooklyn:

• My only keepers for defence next season are Sekera, Klefbom and Davidson on the left side, and Fayne on the right. I wouldn’t declare Davidson as a top 4 guy just yet. He’s done well as a bottom pairing defencemen, and I think he could do well with someone like Gryba next season. Nurse and Reinhart need time to develop, with the former likely getting more NHL time than the latter. If the Oilers want these two prospects to reach their potential, they have got to bring in some experienced players to round out the defence core. This would allow both Nurse and Reinhart to develop at the appropriate level.
• Quick rundown of where the Oilers rank in terms of possession, scoring chances and goals at even-strength at this point. Based on these we can see why the club is destined for a bottom five finish, and why we need to temper expectations even with young McDavid back in the lineup.
  • Corsi For% (Score adjusted) – 47.9% (22nd)
  • Scoring Chances For% – 48.3% (24th)
  • Goals For% – 43.2% (29th)
  • Team Save% – 91.2% (30th)
  • Team Shooting% – 7.4% (14th)

As always, let me know your thoughts.

Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to discuss the Oilers. Full audio clip is below starting around the 8:00 mark.

Couple thoughts:

With McDavid coming back in, I’d prefer to see him reunited with Yakupov and Pouliot. The trio was one of the best lines in hockey before McDavid got hurt and posted a 52% Corsi For percentage in their time together (Source: Puckalytics). I thought Yak looked like a different player with McDavid, very active, especially in the neutral zone. I’d rather have seen Eberle pushed down to play with Letestu and Kassian (who as a pair have done very well so far since Kassian was called up). Looks like the coaching staff see otherwise and have slotted Eberle with McDavid, which you can’t go wrong with either. The fourth line looks like a mix of Lander, Hendricks, Pakarinen and Korpikoski. Fully expect Gazdic and Klinkhammer to be waived, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Gazdic stays and Lander is shipped out instead.

The defence is looking mighty weak and won’t look any better unless Sekera-Fayne are split up. The Oilers bottom four are Nurse and Reinhart on the left side, and Schultz, Clendening and Gryba on the right side. Among those five, I cannot find a combination that I like. Fully expect Schultz to be shipped out sooner rather than later with Clendening sliding right into his spot and paired with Nurse.

One player who I hope gets an extended stay in Edmonton is Pakarinen. He’s been a good depth winger with a tendency to shoot the puck, something McLellan has been preaching since his arrival. This season, among forwards who have played at least 20 games, Pakarinen is only behind Hall, Yakupov and Purcell when it comes to individual shot attempts per 60.

Pakarinen is an RFA this summer and qualifying him should be a no brainer. In a perfect world, he’d replace Korpikoski who has been dreadful this season, but is still being paid another $2.5 million next season. Unfortunately, Pakarinen will continue fighting for ice time, but should be retained as a good depth winger.

One thing that I’ve been spending more time on are the numbers being posted by the Oilers prospects in Bakersfield. A great website that captures some of theses stats is Prospect-Stats.com. Sean Tierney, who writes for Hockey Graphs and Today’s Slapshot has been nice enough to put together and publish team dashboards recently. Below are the Condor’s goals-for relative to teammate stats, 5v5:

We knew LaLeggia has been having a good season. Just didn’t know it’s been this good. Happy to see Musil on the plus-side, hopefully he gets some time in Edmonton before his contract is up. By this measure, Oesterle hasn’t been playing at a level I was expecting, but he’s still a prospect at this point. We know Reinhart hasn’t been great, but I think he’s almost guaranteed to be on the roster before guys like Musil and the rest.