The Oilers Improvement in Possession Numbers and Expected Goals

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The Oilers may have finished the 2015/16 season near the bottom of the league, but looking a little deeper into the stats we see that the club improved in a few areas that are critical for winning games. First, they improved their overall share of goals at even-strength, going from 40.46% last season, up to 45.38%. That’s a significant jump, and was the third biggest change from the season prior across all 30 teams, behind Arizona and Florida. Goal share is obviously important, but we know that there is a lot of luck involved in scoring goals, with some teams riding higher than average shooting or save percentages to pad their goal-share stats.

Knowing that, it’s important to look into a team’s share of total shot attempts (i.e. Corsi For%) which serves as a good proxy for possession,  as well as expected goals, which measures shot quality and scoring chances as determined by Corisca Hockey. When it came to possession, the Oilers finished with 48.71% of all shot attempts (adjusted for score, zone and venue), good for 20th in the league, and up from 46.98% last season (26th overall). When it came to their share of expected goals, the Oilers made a significant jump from last season, going from a 43.32% share (28th league wide), up to 49.24% (20th overall). Below is a graph of the Oilers share of shot attempts (i.e., Corsi For%) over the past nine seasons, as well as their share of expected goals (xGF%).

CF and xGF Analysis

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Sekera and Fayne

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Since last summer, the Oilers have struggled to carve out a solid defence core that contained a balance of skill, size and experience. And heading into the draft and free agency, it’s become apparent to everyone that the OIlers will likely be making a move or two to enhance the blue line and hopefully push for a playoff spot this upcoming season.

One thing that has become lost in the discussion is the effectiveness of the Sekera-Fayne pairing this past season and why maintaining that tandem is critical for the Oilers. Sekera and Fayne played over 600 minutes together in 2015/16, the most among all pairings in Edmonton, and averaged over 23% of the team’s total ice time at even-strength when together, often leading the team on a nightly basis. Whatever your position is on these two players, they were the number one pairing for the OIlers last season and actually fared well when it came to possession metrics as well as expected goals (which factors in shot location and quality as defined by Corsica Hockey).

Below, I’ve listed every Oilers defence pairing that played at least 100 minutes together last season at even-strength, ranked the list by Corsi For% (adjusted) and included the expected goals measures as well.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Shot attempts from the Oilers defencemen

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20141209_davidsonPrior to the 2015/16 season starting, I spent some time re-watching San Jose games to get a sense of their style of play and their overall tactics with McLellan behind the bench. We knew historically the Sharks had been a very good team, one that was properly constructed with depth and balance across the roster, and had the ability to outshoot and outscore opponents on a fairly regular basis. But I was curious to see how certain types of players, mainly the ones on defence, were being utilized and what we could expect for the Oilers under a new coaching staff.

What stood out to me from re-watching these games was how often the Sharks would shoot the puck, and how quickly they would get a shot on goal soon after entering the zone. It was obvious that they would crash the net fairly quickly, getting opposing defencemen on their heels, and rely on their skilled forwards to create second and third chances from rebounds.

Defencemen were typically dumping in the puck, and could rely on their forwards to retrieve it. And if they crossed the blue line,  defencemen were very good at getting shots on goal, leading to second chances. To confirm what I was seeing, I looked into what proportion of the Sharks total shot attempts came from defencemen, and how they measured up to the rest of the league.

iCF analysis - EDM vs SJ.jpg

Here we see that under McLellan (2008/09 – 2014/15), the team saw the shot attempts from the defence core gradually increase to about 35-40% of the team total at even-strength. The Oilers on the other hand, were typically below league average (~30%) when it came to shot attempts from the blueline and saw a bump in their proportion in 2014/15 under Eakins and Nelson (Source: Corsica Hockey).

 

Now with McLellan behind the bench this past season, the Oilers defencemen generated about 35% of the team’s total shot attempts, well above the league average, and closer in line with what the Sharks have done in the past. If we break the proportion of shot attempts into rolling 25-game averages over the course of the 2015/16 season, the Oilers actually did get up to 40% at one point, which just happens to be around the time that the Oilers had a Corsi For percentage above 50% [Copper & Blue]. And when the defencemen started generating fewer shots closer to the end of the season, well that’s also when the team’s overall possession numbers went into the tank.

iCF analysis - Rolling Prop of iCF from D.jpg

iCF analysis - Rolling CF%.jpg

I can’t say for certain that there’s a direct correlation between the proportion of shot attempts from defencemen and the teams overall possession numbers. But it does appear that McLellan shifted away from his strategy of getting shots from defencemen and letting forwards crash the net for rebounds. Early on in the season, the coaching staff did emphasize volume shooting and the importance of getting shots from the blueline, but for whatever reason, McLellan appears to have relied on his defencemen less for shot attempts and relied more on his forwards to funnel shots towards the goal. My thought is that McLellan’s original strategy did a better job of sustaining pressure in the offensive zone, which would lead to better possession numbers (similar to the 25 game stretch this season).

Another thing to keep in mind is that the Oilers lost Brandon Davidson right around the 67 game mark, which is also when the Oilers started to crater when it came to possession numbers. As a depth defenceman, Davidson was quite effective at generating shot attempts, ranking near the top when it came to individual shot attempts per 60 this season.

Player Games iCF/60
ADAM CLENDENING 20 11.8
DARNELL NURSE 69 11.7
BRANDON DAVIDSON 51 10.9
ANDREJ SEKERA 81 10.7
ERIC GRYBA 53 10.6
OSCAR KLEFBOM 30 10.1
MARK FAYNE 69 7.8
JORDAN OESTERLE 17 7.5
JUSTIN SCHULTZ 45 7.5
GRIFFIN REINHART 29 7.4

Not suggesting here that losing Davidson is the reason why the team’s possession numbers took a hit. But it appears that after losing him, McLellan looked to his forwards to generate original shot attempts, moving away form his shot-from-the-blue strategy.

Take aways:

  • McLellan has historically had his defencemen generating a higher proportion of the teams total shot attempts compared to other teams. This forced the forwards to crash the net looking for rebounds and creating additional chances.
  • This past season, the Oilers did see a higher proportion of shot attempts from defencemen, but after the 67 game mark, the club saw fewer shot attempts coming from the blueline. The Oilers possession numbers also took a nosedive around this time.
  • Davidson’s absence may have been a factor in the fewer shots from the blueline, as he ranked higher among Oilers defencemen when it came to individual shot attempts/60.

 

Thoughts on the Oilers: Draft, Maroon, Identity

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1297814459481_ORIGINALIt’s that time of year when really anything is possible, so speculation is rampant about how the Oilers could acquire and who should be dealt. With the draft coming up, there’s a ton of information on prospects with (at times) excessive discussion on which player might get drafted where. For the Oilers, my hope is that they trade the fourth overall pick as part of a package to acquire help on defence. I suspect that it won’t be a direct transaction and that the Oilers acquire a top six forward, and then move out one the current players to land that much needed defenceman. Having said that, if the Oilers keep the pick, they have to take the best player available (regardless of position) and let them stew at the right level until they’re ready to make the jump.

Couple other thoughts:

  • Definitely a fan of Patrick Maroon and the contract, but I’m reluctant to slot him in as a top six player next season. I see him as more of a complementary forward who would rotate around the lineup depending on match-ups and competition. McLellan builds his lines with an established pair, and I see McDavid having either Eberle or Pouliot as his most common linemate next season.
  • Should add that in his 16 games as an Oilers, Maroon played often with McDavid and Eberle, and notched 14 points (8 goals, 6 assists). Possession-wise, the trio had a Corsi For% of 48% (adjsuted), and a PDO of 107 (Source: Corsica Hockey). I think it’s safe to say that this type of productivity is unsustainable, and that the Oilers should hold off on any sort of contract extension with Maroon until they have a little more data/information to work with. And if it’s Maroon a team wants for a defenceman to save some cap space, the Oilers have to consider it.
  • With Hamonic off the market, it’s a good time to review the work done by Darcy McLeod where he reviewed a large group of right shot defencemen [Woodblog]. I like the fact that the Oilers don’t get an easy way out of this mess, so we’ll see what an experienced GM like Chiarelli can do in this situation.
  • This tweet is just bang-on during this playoff season, eh?

  • We know the Oilers are a long ways away from being a playoff team, but they’re even further away from having that 5-7 year window that the best teams are able to create. The playoffs are such a crap shoot sometimes that the best thing you can do is build a roster that can make the playoffs and have a chance at winning a series. That to me is sometimes a bigger feat than winning the cup.
  • When there are discussions about which team the Oilers should copy in terms of roster construction and on-ice play, I cringe at the thought of the Bruins being the perfect template. In my opinion, the only thing the Bruins did was make their identity explicit by signing/acquiring specific players and have observers build their narratives around that. It’s the off-season, so I understand why we have to hear about the Bruins. They did have an okay window and did win the cup. But I much rather prefer hearing about the Sharks style of play and roster construction (which we hear more about in-season as McLellan is behind a mic more often). Obviously the Oilers don’t have some of the specific players (Thornton, Marleau, etc), but I think the Sharks style of play is something more teams should try to emulate.

Shawn Horcoff’s 2015/16 Season

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Shawn-Horcoff--Anaheim-Ducks-jpgLast summer , I put together a case for the Oilers to bring back Shawn Horcoff as a way to solidify their depth and give support to the young forwards.  Obviously a long shot that he’d actually come back to Edmonton as a free agent. But he was worth a look as he put together two decent seasons in Dallas as a depth winger, and would’ve been a cheap signing.

Articles are here:

Bringing Back Horcoff
Bringing Back Horcoff (Part 2)
Brincing Back Horcoff (Part 3)

I was happy to see that Horcoff signed with the Ducks as it gave him a great chance to win the cup and cap off a great career. I didn’t expect him to play a whole lot to be honest, as I figured he would be a fill-in for Nate Thompson while he was recovering from surgery. But when I checked in in December, not only was Horcoff still playing at center even with Thompson back, but his ice-time had gradually increased from the start of the season.

Horcoff actually finished the season well scoring 13 even-strength points in 59 games (Source: War on Ice), good for 9th on team among forwards (over 250 minutes of ice time). And his 1.22 points/60 wasn’t too far off from his six year average of 1.28. Looking at his Relative to Team metrics, we see below that while the team did slightly better possession wise without Horcoff on the ice, the Ducks actually generated more high-danger scoring chances when Horcoff was on the ice (+3.62), ranking him 2nd on the team behind Ryan Getzlaf. This appears to have translated into more goals, as the team got a higher share of total goals at even-strength when Horcoff was out there (+2.03), ranking him 6th on the team this season. Worth noting that luck (i.e., PDO) does not appear to have been a factor as the team wasn’t getting a higher-than-normal shooting percentage (only 6.33%) with Horcoff on the ice, and his personal shooting percentage was lower than his six-year average.  I’ve also included expected goals, which captures shot quality and factors in the type and location of the shot (Source: Corsica Hockey).

 

Horcoff Profile 2

The key takeaway from this table is that comparing this season’s numbers with his six year average, things aren’t too far off and in some areas, he was better than his average. Considering Horcoff is turning 38 this fall, I figured we’d start to see a decline in productivity but that hasdn’t been the case this past season.

Unfortunately for him, the 20-game suspension for taking a banned substance is what will likely define his season. It’s also hard to overlook the fact that Horcoff is 38 soon and has been dealing with injuries and may even consider retiring. But seeing what he could do as a depth player this past season, I think more than a few teams could take a chance on him and sign him to a very reasonable contract. Horcoff is well past his prime now, but the fact that he can post numbers that are near his career averages indicates, to me at least, that he may just have something left in the tank.

Talking Draft Lottery Results and Summer Options on The Lowdown with Lowetide

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Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to talk about the draft lottery and what the Oilers should do with that 4th overall pick.

Couple things:

  • I’m awful with draft/prospect stuff. I don’t watch a lot of junior hockey, so I rely heavily on what guys like Bob McKenzie and others have to say as well as the data.
  • If I’m Chiarelli, I shop that pick and try to package it with players to acquire help on defence. My second option is to turn that pick into two, or three, picks in the first two rounds. The prospect pool needs a boost, so I’d try to spread the risk of that one pick across two more picks.
  • If all else fails, you take the best player available regardless of position. Honestly, my first take on the 4th pick was “okay good, the Oilers can draft for need now and take one of those defencemen”. But on second thought, the draft is the only time a team can take any player they want for free, no strings attached. You have to take the best player available at this point and rely on your scouts to uncover a prospect in the second and third rounds. If you’re drafting-for-need with the 4th pick, that shows a lack of confidence in your scouting staff.
  • And just a heads up that my colleague over at Copper & Blue, Scott Reynolds, will be posting his analysis of this draft class as he’s done in the past. Really looking forward to that.
  • In case you missed it, I joined the AIH 20416 podcast on Saturday night. Had a great chat with some Jets fans. Happy that they get to pick 2nd.

 

Looking for Positives from the 2015/16 Season

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Recently I’ve been digging into the team’s overall possession numbers, as well as other metrics, trying to find some positive signs from the 2015/16 season. My expectations going into the season were high considering the success Todd McLellan has had in the past when it comes to possession, but those expectations were tempered knowing that the roster had major deficiencies and the amount of injuries the club had to deal with. What I’ve found so far is that even though the team  mustered less than 50% of the total shot attempts at even-strength this past season, the club did remain rather consistent, hovering around 20th place in the league through the whole season. I consider this progress as the Oilers have historically posted brutal possession numbers and would typically trend downwards as the season wore on.  It’s also worth noting that for the first time in over seven seasons, the Oilers posted a 25-game stretch where the team Corsi For% was over 50%.

What I’ve also found using rolling 25-game averages is that even though the team steadily declined in their share of shot attempts near the end of the season, the club actually improved, rather nicely, over the course of the season when it came to expected goals (xGF). This metric, available at Corsica Hockey, takes into account the quality of shots, including the type of shot, the distance from where it was taken, whether it was a rush shot or a rebound, and from what angle it was taken from. You can read more about the expected goals methodology at Corsica Hockey. Please note that the Corsi and expected goals data has been adjusted to account for score, zone and venue.

For my own verification, I also looked into War on Ice’s scoring chance data and high danger scoring chance data (adjusted for score), two metrics that expected goals takes into account along with other factors. Looking at the rolling 25-game averages, I found that the Oilers gradually improved when it came to the rate at which scoring chances and high danger chances were generated this season.

Full article is at The Copper & Blue.

Talking Draft Lottery, Trading Picks, Davidson and Developing Defencemen on The Lowdown with Lowetide

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Joined Lowetide this morning on TSN 1260 to talk all things Oilers. Audio link below (starts about five minutes in):

Couple notes: