Something I came across recently was just how poor the Oilers possession numbers have been and how they’ve been trending downwards. There’s been some optimism around the team as they had put together a somewhat respectable stretch, but their Corsi For percentage was 46.3%, with their Fenwick For percentage hovering around the same level (45.0%). (Link)

The other thing I found was just how badly the Oilers third and fourth line players were doing in terms of shot-share metrics, namely Ryan Strome and Jujhar Khaira. Now to me this isn’t that surprising. I put together a post earlier this month making a case for the two forwards to remain together on a line and dug into how they’d done as centers. Highly recommend reading that one first if you haven’t already. So for all the people into sports this is a really good news, and they can also go to sites online where they can purchase bets, such as rivalo and others.

• Related: Strome and Khaira – The SuperFan (2018, March 3)

In my opinion, neither is a great centerman on their own or without another centerman with them. But when they’re on the ice either together at even-strength (5v5) splitting duties this season, they’ve been just fine.

Strome and Khaira (2017/18)

What’s also worth noting is that general manager Peter Chiarelli views Strome as a good option for center, as discussed the day he was acquired from New York, and that it’s always helpful to load up on centers.

Chiarelli on whether Strome slots in at centre or wing: “If you can put two centres on a line it’s to your advantage. I think he’s a natural centre, but he can certainly rip a wrist shot so he’s quite good on the wing also.” (Source: Edmonton Journal)

Unfortunately for the Oilers, the coaching staff has been adamant for the last 12 games now to have Strome and Khaira away from each other and centering their own lines.

This all stems of course from McLellan’s desire to have his top three centermen, McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl, play in the top six. In the most recent stretch, McDavid has been playing with Nugent-Hopkins on the same line, with Draisaitl anchoring the second line. It’s understandable that a coach wants to have as much fire power together, but it’d make a lot more sense to spread the talent across three lines to really cause match-up issues for the opposing team.

Because of the coaching staff’s deployment tactics, two things are occurring: the team’s overall possession numbers haven’t been strong. And the on-ice numbers of both Strome and Khaira as they center their own lines have been horrible.

Over the last 12 games, the Oilers have gone 7-4-1, but that’s with an even-strength (5v5) goal-share of 44.9% (a -5 goal differential). So right away, we know this isn’t real. And we can also make a case that this recent success probably isn’t sustainable since their Corsi For percentage is 48.1%, and their Fenwick For percentage is 46.8%.

With Khaira or Strome on the ice centering their own lines, the team’s Corsi For percentage dips below 45%, with a higher rate of unblocked shot attempts against going way up, especially with Strome on the ice.

Looking at each player’s rolling 5-game Corsi For%, it’s pretty apparent that their on-ice numbers took a hit once they were split apart and trusted as centermen by the coaching staff.

If a coaches job is to put players in a position to succeed and improve the chances of winning games, then it behooves them to collect as much information as possible and deploy the best possible player combinations. And if things look fine on the surface and the team is winning, it’s even more critical to analyze and determine if the success is sustainable or not and make adjustments as needed.

It’s easy to dismiss criticism directed towards third and fourth line-type players. But as we’ve seen from other successful teams, depth is critical to be a contender. And while the Oilers are playing out a lost season and it makes sense to try out different players in different positions, it’s critical that they review the underlying numbers and the right information to know what the player’s true on-ice impact really is.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Barlowe Analytic

Prior to the game against Nashville on Thursday, head coach Todd McLellan had this to say when asked about potentially playing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the wing when he does return from injury. What stuck out for me wasn’t his thoughts on RNH, but his comments regarding Ryan Strome and Jujhar Khaira.

Quite frankly, I haven’t thought that far ahead. But once we get him back we’ll see where everybody else is. I like the fact the Ryan Strome is playing well down the middle. He’s played some of his best hockey over the last little bit. JJ Khaira has played quite well down the middle, so maybe we have our three and our four center. Now we can determine , we’re pretty sure we have our number one center  in Connor. What are we gonna do in that two hole? Does Leon go up on the wing. Does Nuge go on the wing. These are things we have to contemplate and take into consideration. I do believe that when Nuge does come back he’ll start where he’s familiar just so he can get his game back. (Source: Edmonton Oilers)

Now my first inclination is that Nugent-Hopkins should slot right back into center with McDavid and Draisaitl centering their own lines. I recently wrote about how well the Oilers did when they ran three good lines in December, and can only imagine the headaches it would cause opposing teams if they have to build a plan to play against a balanced offence.

Now say McLellan decides to have McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH in his top six, with one of Draisaitl or RNH playing wing. He’ll have his nuclear option of a McDavid-Draisaitl tandem, which has been an absolute killer (410 mins, 64.4% on-ice goal-share, 55.1% Corsi For percentage). And he can re-unite RNH with Lucic, who have a 56% on-ice goal-share together in 300 minutes this season, and a 50.6% Corsi For percentage.

This leaves Strome and Khaira as the other options for center. Neither player has been a full-time pivot this season, and they’ve also played together on the same line, making it a little tricky to figure out how each has done as a true centerman.

What I did was use Natural Stat Trick’s line combination tool to see how Khaira and Strome did when they weren’t on the ice together and when they didn’t have one of the other centers (McDavid, Draisaitl or RNH) with them. I could only use five players at a time, so I left Letestu out of the query for now – more on that after the table.

Ryan Strome barely played with Letestu. I found about 10 minutes where they were on the ice together, but that was across more than 10 different line combinations.

Of the 237 minutes Khaira played without Strome, McDavid, Draisaitl or RNH, 79 minutes were with Letestu. And when Khaira was with Letestu, the team’s Corsi For percentage was 51.2%, and they had a goal-share of 44.4%.

So based on my quick math, Strome has played about 285 minutes without another centerman on a line wit him, and has had poor on-ice results (48.0% CF, 47.0% GF). And Khaira has played about 158 minutes as a centerman, with his Corsi For percentage below 49.0% and an on-ice goal-share around 40%. If someone has a better way to strip out each player’s time as a true centerman this season, please let me know.

One last thing: Ryan Strome has looked good over the last little bit like Todd McLellan mentioned. But he’s also had an on-ice shooting percentage above 11%, with a PDO around 103 over the last 10 games. His on-ice Corsi For% has been around 47%, and his goal-share has been 50%. Something to keep in mind, especially when there are discussions around his RFA status and potentially a new contract this summer.

Something I hope the Oilers realize is that while Khaira and Strome haven’t been  that great as centers on their own, they have actually played really well together this season.

While the goal-share isn’t strong, thanks in large part to a poor on-ice save percentage, in 255 minutes together, they have a 53.7% Corsi For percentage. You could make the argument that Strome and Khaira did spend plenty of time with Draisaitl, and that would drive up their on-ice possession numbers and goal-share. But if you look at the other players that the tandem were on the ice with, you’d see that wasn’t necessarily the case.

We’re obviously dealing with small sample sizes here, but the on-ice shot share’s have been encouraging. Running with a Strome-Khaira tandem over the long run should net the team some results. But it’ll be on the coaching staff to demonstrate some patience and stick to the tactics and processes that are working well.

What I hope to see when Nugent-Hopkins return is one of two things:

• Have Draisaitl on McDavid’s wing with RNH centering the second line with Lucic and possibly Puljujaarvi. And have Strome and Khaira together on a third line with say Cammalleri. The fourth line can have Caggiula as center for all I care.
• Have McDavid and RNH center their own lines. And deploy Draisaitl with Strome and Khaira.

The key for me is to keep Strome and Khaira together, and not have them center their own lines in the bottom six. The underlying shot-numbers when they’ve played together are encouraging, especially when you consider how desperate the Oilers are for secondary scoring.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

It was a significant milestone for the Edmonton Oilers when they signed Leon Draisaitl to a long term contract last summer. The club was convinced by his performance over the previous two seasons that he was going to fill an important role for the team and that he’d be a very productive NHL player.

But to justify the significant dollars invested by the team two things had to happen, and happen very soon: (1) Draisaitl had to continue producing points at a top-line rate, and (2) he had to do that while predominantly playing center. If the Oilers were to have any success, they needed secondary offence behind Connor McDavid. And Draisaitl, at that price point, had to be a big part of the solution going forward.

General manager Peter Chiarelli also made it pretty clear in the off-season what he envisioned for Draisaitl and his role on the team.

“As a manager, I like Leon in the middle because he’s strong and he’s heavy and he’s good on faceoffs. He’s more than that, but that’s why I like him in the middle. That doesn’t mean that Connor and Leon won’t play together because you saw them playing together last year. Leon will take some draws and Connor will be on the wing, and they trade coverage down low sometimes. But as a manager, I think you’re winning a Cup, at the end of the day, on the average, with both of those guys in the middle.” (Source: TSN)

Even with management’s endorsement, there were reasons to be skeptical of Draisaitl’s ability to score while playing center, and away from McDavid. The biggest reason being the fact that Draisaitl hadn’t proven his ability to drive offence over the previous two seasons, as he often played alongside high-end talent.

In 2016/17, when Draisaitl and McDavid were on the ice together at even-strength (5v5), the club posted a 53.7% Corsi For percentage, which was expected considering their talent level. Not only were they regularly out-shooting opponents when deployed together, but they were getting outstanding results as well. The Oilers goal-share at even-strength was 59.4% (+13 goal differential) when Draisaitl and McDavid were on the ice together, ranking them near the top of the league with a rate of 3.65 goals per hour.

When the two were away from each other last season, well that’s when things got interesting.

Without McDavid with him, Draisaitl’s on-ice Corsi For% dropped to 48.5%, a fairly common trend across the roster last season when their generational talent was on the bench. What made matters worse is the team’s ability to score goals took a hit when Draisaitl was without McDavid, with the team posting a rate of 2.28 goals per hour, and a goal-share of 44.19%. Meanwhile, McDavid continued at around the same rate both with and without Draisaitl, making it obvious who the  primary offensive driver was. This is really what made the Draisatl’s contract all the more perplexing as Draisaitl hadn’t exactly proven he could generate offence on his own line.

The success that McDavid and Draisaitl had together last season is a big reason why head coach Todd McLellan continues to play them together this season. Rather than spread the top-end talent across the line-up like successful teams often do, the Oilers have continued to load up their top line leaving the rest of the roster vulnerable to being out shot and out scored. Even without Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in the lineup, the head coach is adamant McDavid and Draisaitl have to play together.

Looking at the numbers from last season, it’s safe to assume the team wants to get the most out of Draisaitl, with his best numbers coming when paired with McDavid. And this season, it’s been no different. Their possession numbers together are just as strong as they were last season, with their goal-score rate being even better with 4.06 goals per hour.

What’s interesting this season is that McDavid hasn’t been nearly as productive as he was last season without Draisaitl with him. The Oilers possession numbers are still very good with McDavid on the ice (52.95%), but the scoring rate is way down with  team generating 2.74 goals per hour, and the goal-differential actually being even. That’s pretty alarming and should be another flag to management that they have some work to do this summer.

Now a coach could look at this and think that both McDavid and Draisaitl actually need one another to be productive, and it’d be a fair assessment. A rate of over four goals per hour is enough to justify playing them together as often as possible regardless of what the rest of the center depth looks like.

Management on the other hand needs to look at this a little differently. They should still be concerned that Draisaitl is being deployed as a winger and posting medicore numbers away from McDavid. But they really need to assess why McDavid’s on-ice goal-share is just even in 459 minutes away from Draisaitl. Remember, last season the team had a goal-share of over 65% and a rate of 3.39 goals per hour when McDavid was on the ice without Draisaitl. And the drop could be due to the fact that he’s played a lot of minutes with lesser or inexperienced talent including Drake Caggiula, Kailer Yamamoto and Mike Cammalleri.

Of the three, I would consider Drake Caggiula’s numbers with McDavid this season to be the most troubling. He’s had success scoring goals with McDavid – the problem is they allow a high rate as well thanks in large part to some really dreadful possession numbers. As a very raw rookie, Yamamoto posted very good possession numbers earlier in the season, but they just weren’t able to convert on their shot attempts (which Yamamoto got plenty of). You can’t expect a rookie to be able to beat NHL goalies right off the hop, and there’s plenty of promise there, but it impacted McDavid’s on-ice goal-scoring rate away from Draisaitl.

To be clear, I wouldn’t go as far as blaming these three for McDavid’s poor on-ice numbers. It’s really more on management for putting together such a flawed roster and not adding enough NHL-calibre, scoring talent in the off-season.

With the playoffs getting further and further out of reach, the Edmonton Oilers need to start addressing their key underlying issues and position themselves better for next season. I’ve written plenty in the past on how the team has done without McDavid on the ice and the importance of secondary offence. But the fact that the team’s decisions are now negatively impacting McDavid’s on-ice numbers should be major red flag and one that needs to be rectified as soon as possible.

Related: Assessing Chiarelli – The SuperFan (2017, August 14)

Data: Natural Stat Trick