Plenty of optimism around the Oilers as they sit third in the Pacific, winning their last two games and going 7-2-1 in their last ten. Their most recent win featured their fourth line scoring twice and a good performance from backup goaltender Mikko Koskinen.

Those two features right there – depth scoring and goaltending – should get a lot of attention for the rest of the season. We’ve known for some time now about how the Oilers struggle to break even (goal-wise and shot-wise) when McDavid isn’t on the ice, and it needs to be better if this team intends on contending for a championship. And finding a reliable back-up – who could not only give Talbot a rest but also potentially push for the starting position next season – is going to be critical for long-term success.

The Oilers most recent stretch of games has seen their overall goal differential improve as they’re finally getting production from their depth forwards.

Since their loss to Nashville on Hockey Night in Canada, the Oilers have played quite well – outscoring opponents 16-9 for a goal-share of 64.0% over seven games. I know I was pretty disappointed in that loss against Nashville; I felt like they had been getting lucky pushing teams like Winnipeg and Boston into overtime and looked so-so against the Predators. Plus I hate it when the Oilers lose on national games (even though I should be used to it by now). So it’s been a relief to see the team show some signs of life over the last couple of weeks.

As Darcy McLeod (@woodguy55) pointed out, the line of Draisaitl, Rieder and Chiasson has been outstanding. Over the last seven games, they’ve played just over 63 minutes together at even-strength (5v5), outscoring opponents 5-0. Their shot-share numbers have been solid as well, posting a 53.57% Corsi For percentage (proxy for possession) and a 56.57% Fenwick For percentage (proxy for scoring chances). This is a line that’s getting results and has the underlying numbers that indicate their success has a good chance of being sustainable.

The other trio that has shown some chemistry over a limited sample size at even-strength is Brodziak, Khaira and Kassian. Over the last seven games, they’ve played just over 42 minutes together, outscoring opponents 3-1 (75.0% goal-share). Their shot-share numbers together have been good as well – 59.77% Corsi For percentage and a 60.73% Fenwick For percentage. I’m not too surprised Khaira is having this success – he tends to do well when he can play center part-time with another center on his line. Kassian I feel like is the replaceable one here, and that if the team were able to move his contract and plug in someone like Cooper Marody, Khaira and Brodziak would still have success.

One thing I will add is that whoever the Oilers have on their third or fourth lines this season needs to be able to do some work on the penalty kill or powerplay. Right now the Oilers are running their top powerplay unit quite regularly with all five lefties (McDavid, Lucic, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins and Klefbom) averaging over four minutes per game at 5v4. Finishing a season averaging over four minutes per game is almost unheard of for forwards, with only a handful of guys doing that over the last five seasons. On top of that, Nugent-Hopkins and now Draisaitl are getting regular minutes on the penalty kill – something I can’t see continuing. The coach is running his go-to players on the powerplay and may have an issue trusting others considering how much pressure he’s under to win this season.

One quick note about Nugent-Hopkins: he’s killing it on the penalty kill (4v5). He’s third on the team in total ice time shorthanded and has yet to be on the ice for a goal against. The rate of shots and scoring chances against are at their lowest this year when he’s on the ice – and he’s a big reason why the Oilers as a whole are doing better at limiting shots-against this season compared to last season. I have a couple theories as to why this is happening, but still working through some data.

One player that’s seeing significant minutes this season and doing quite well is Oscar Klefbom. He ranks fourth in the league in average ice time among defencemen, only behind Doughty, Suter and Karlsson. Over the first 13 games, the Oilers have a 68.75% goal-share (11 GF, 5 GA), and a 55.11% Corsi-for percentage with him on the ice – both metrics rank Klefbom first on the Oilers among defencemen. The possession numbers are what surprises me most as he’s often out there against the best opponents and starts most often outside the offensive zone compared to his teammates. It’s usually a team’s third pairing defenceman that often leads a team in Corsi-for perecentage and other shot-share metrics as they tend to get easier opposition and start often in the offensive zone.

Worth noting too that Klefbom has not been riding McDavid’s coat-tails. Some quick stats from the first 13 games:

• McDavid with Klefbom (111 mins) – 55.08% CF%, 75.0% GF% (6 GF, 2 GA)
• McDavid without Klefbom (101 mins) – 45.94% CF%, 66.67% GF% (4 GF, 2 GA)
• Klefbom without McDavid (129 mins) – 55.17% CF%, 62.50% GF% (5 GF, 3 GA)
• Oilers without Klefbom or McDavid (271 mins) – 46.40% CF%, 35.0% (7 GF, 13 GA)

That second bullet of the team posting a 45.94% Corsi-for percentage with McDavid but without Klefbom is interesting. We know McDavid has superhuman talent, so the concern here should be that someone is dragging down McDavid or is not playing the complementary role very well. My first thought is it’s Nurse’s play impacting McDavid, as I don’t think he’s been very consistent, especially in his own zone. He has posted a 45.95% Corsi-for percentage this season, which is just ahead of Rusell as well as Benning who only  up until recently been playing better. But it’s something to watch for on the Oilers blueline and its depth as I don’t think it’d be smart to overplay Klefbom.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com

The Oilers are off to a respectable 3-3 start this season, with big overtime wins against the Jets in Winnipeg and Boston at home last week.

The biggest and most publicized issue has been their secondary scoring at even-strength and the lack of production from Leon Draisaitl who has struggled significantly on the second line. His numbers right across the board are poor. Despite playing the third most minutes among Oilers forwards at even-strength, he only has two points (two goals) – good for a rate of 0.71 points per hour. Based on his personal numbers from the past two seasons and the ice time he gets, a rate of 2.0 points per hour should be the bare minimum he should finish the season with.

Over the course of 84 minutes at even-strength (5v5) this season with Draisaitl on the ice, the Oilers have been outscored 6-1 and have posted a Corsi For percentage (a proxy for possession) of 38.67%. The team has seen a significant drop in offence, getting out-shot and out-chanced by a large margin when Draisaitl has been deployed – especially concerning considering he’s expected to be the Oilers long-term solution for scoring depth.

You can expect a slight drop off when comparing Draisaitl’s on ice numbers to his off-ice numbers considering that McDavid is the top line center. But this is just staggering and worth monitoring over the next few weeks.

It’s also alarming to see that even when Draisaitl has been on the ice with McDavid, the numbers are dreadful. What should be considered as a nuclear option for the Oilers has fared very poorly – in 16 minutes together this season at even-strength (5v5), the Oilers have posted a 42.25% Corsi For percentage, and been outscored 2-1 (a 33.3% goal-share). Considering that the two have a long history of playing well together, I don’t think these poor results will last. But I think the concern here should be that Draisaitl could be dealing with a health issue, or possibly a conditioning issue since his pre-season numbers were sub-par as well. It remains to be seen if this is a temporary problem or something that has long term implications.

There are a lot of ways to cut and slice Draisaitl’s numbers this season to show how poor he’s been. My favorite involves McDavid and Klefbom. When Klefbom, arguably the Oilers best defencemen this season, has been on the ice with McDavid, the results have surprisingly been poor – 46.46% Corsi For percentage and a 50.0% goal-share (1 GF, 1 GA) over 53 minutes together. However, if you adjust the numbers to exclude the 10 minutes Draisaitl was on the ice with them, the possession numbers improve drastically – up to 50.5% Corsi For percentage – and the goal-share is 100.0% (1 GF, 0 GA). Anyways…

Quick notes on the Oilers special teams. The Oilers powerplay (5v4) is currently doing well, as they rank 7^th in the league with a goals-for per hour rate of 10.39. You can probably expect that number to drop as it’s a fairly high compared to previous league-wide results. The target should be 7.0 goals, which would have them in the top ten league wide. For now, the top powerplay unit featuring five left shooters is getting results, generating unblocked shots (Fenwick) at a rate of 75.0 per hour with McDavid on the ice. That number is right around the league average from last season – but there should be no reason why that number couldn’t climb up with McDavid on the ice.

McLellan is clearly running his top unit as much as he can, with little time given to the likes of Puljujarvi and Yamamoto – two skilled right shot wingers who could help to diversify the shooting options on the powerplay. There’s a very clear drop off in time-on-ice (TOI) here:

Player (5v4)	GP	TOI
Connor McDavid	6	23.20
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	6	22.37
Leon Draisaitl	6	22.23
Oscar Klefbom	6	22.18
Milan Lucic	6	21.15
Jesse Puljujarvi	6	6.28
Ryan Strome	6	5.63
Evan Bouchard	5	5.33
Kailer Yamamoto	6	4.75
Ty Rattie	5	4.15
Jujhar Khaira	6	1.75
Darnell Nurse	6	1.72
Matthew Benning	4	1.05
Adam Larsson	6	1.00

Something else to consider when looking at which players are deployed frequently in various game states is the proportion of total time that the Oilers are trailing in games.

A big reason why McLellan is running his favorite guys on the powerplay (and the reason for McDavid leading the league in average ice time) is due to the fact that the Oilers are trailing a lot – fourth most often in the league. The good news is the Oilers have the offensive talent to drive results, unlike in previous years when the team trailed a lot and were forced to rely heavily on rookie defencemen. Now it’s a matter of using the right on-ice tactics to get the most out of the players and to generate scoring chances and goals.

The Oilers penalty kill (4v5) has been alright so far. The club ranks 17th in the league with a goals against rate of 7.89 per hour – which is just under the target they should have this season (7.00). It’s right around league average, and far (far) better than what they allowed last season shorthanded. What’s encouraging is the team defence at 4v5 as the Oilers rank 11th in the league when it comes to unblocked shots against per hour and allow the second lowest rate of scoring chances against. A potential problem worth monitoring is the goaltending as the team save percentage on the penalty kill currently ranks 17th in the league.

Another area worth monitoring is how players are being instructed to play, and if the team will continue relying on low-probability shots from the point. The Oilers currently rank last in the league when it comes to high-danger shot attempts, and fifth last when it comes to scoring chances for.

We’re six games in to the season, and the Oilers have plenty of work to do if they want to compete for a playoff spot. The good news is that the team is healthy and the top pairing of Klefbom-Larsson has performed well. What remains an issue is secondary scoring, a flaw that has existed for the last two seasons, with the pressure on Draisaitl to produce expected to increase. And we can definitely expect a lot more questions about the coaching tactics if the team can’t produce scoring chances or if the special teams begins to collapse.

Data: Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Viz

Related:

• Couple thoughts on Leon Draisaitl and overvaluing assets – The SuperFan (2017, May 8)
• Generating offence on the penalty kill – The Copper & Blue (2018, September 26)
• The Edmonton Oilers with and without McDavid (Part III) – The Copper & Blue (2017, January 11)