One of the critical areas the Oilers have improved on since the coaching change has been the team’s results and supporting shot-share numbers without McDavid on the ice at even-strength (5v5). It’s been a regular issue since McDavid’s arrival in the NHL, as the Oilers are a standout team whenever he’s been on the ice, but are often getting caved in terms of shot-share, scoring chances and goal-differential without him. Year after year, management has failed to construct a roster that can hold their own without their captain, with coaching staffs making things worse by not trying out different line combinations, playing it safe and often loading up the top line with a combination of McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins.

Here’s how the team has done without McDavid over the course of his career, with the Oilers not once being able to break even in terms of goal-share (grey bars). A big reason for that has been the poor goaltending and offensive finishing talent, with management unable to properly identify talent and efficiently manage their salary cap. But they were also losing the shot-share battle, spending more time without the puck and in their own zone – issues that should have been addressed with better on-ice tactics by previous coaching staffs.

Things were trending the same way this season while Tippett was behind the bench, as the Oilers were outscored 54-73 (a 42.54% goal-share) in the 1,400+ minutes without McDavid – roughly 66% of the team’s total time. And while the club did barely break even in-terms of shot attempts with a 50.17% Corsi For percentage without McDavid, they struggled to convert these into meaningful scoring chances, posting an Expected Goals for percentage of only 46.22%. These numbers were consistent with how the Oilers performed the last two seasons under Tippett, so it didn’t come as much of a surprise.

Since Woodcroft has been hired and able to implement his tactics, things have drastically improved when the Oilers are without McDavid at even-strength (5v5). The team’s shot-share numbers have seen a slight bump and their expected goal share has improved by over four percentage points reaching the 50% mark thanks to their reduction in shots and scoring chances against. And more importantly, the Oilers are now posting a positive goal-differential for the first time since McDavid’s arrival. Goaltending has obviously been better as well, and hopefully it continues. But it’s clear the tactics Woodcroft has implemented, including his reluctance to sit back and protect any leads like his predecessors often did, are working as reflected by the shot-share and scoring chance numbers.

This is a positive development for a team that couldn’t really be considered a championship contender the last two seasons because of the lack of depth offence and scoring, and a coaching staff that was too risk averse with so many blind spots. With the team rolling the way it is and actually outscoring opponents without McDavid on the ice, there’s a good chance they can at least win a couple playoff games. And depending on how the goaltending holds up, maybe even a series.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at The Copper & Blue.

Pretty remarkable turnaround for the Oilers since the coaching change, with the Oilers now winning 21 of the 32 games with Jay Woodcroft behind the bench. The data after the first ten games indicated the early results under Woodcroft were sustainable – we just didn’t know if the team would stay healthy and if the goaltending would hold up. Thankfully for the club and their playoff aspirations, everything has gone really well.

The even-strength (5v5) results since Woodcroft took over is the key driver right now, with the Oilers doing an excellent job controlling the flow of play (as reflected by the shot-share numbers), consistently pushing for offence even when leading the game, and just dominating opponents on the score sheet. Goal-differential at five-on-five is an important metric for Holland, so it should be obvious to him how significant the results have been since Tippett was dismissed.

The Oilers under Woodcroft have been getting much better goaltending with the team’s save percentage closer to league average levels, and have also seen their team shooting percentage improve. But they’re also getting a higher share of the total scoring chances, as reflected by the expected goals for percentage, due in large part to the coaching staff’s tactics. This includes changing how players are deployed, how they play in the neutral zone, looking for more favorable line match-ups and pushing for offence regardless of the score.

And relative to the previous coaches in the McDavid era, Woodcroft is doing really well with the roster he’s been given and should strongly be considered for a new contract.

This is the first time since 2016/17 that the Oilers have posted a positive goal differential at even-strength – something the Oilers couldn’t achieve under Holland’s first coaching hire (and someone the general manager actually wanted to extend just prior to dismissing him). And this is the first time the Oilers are posting underlying shot share numbers that are better than just break-even and closer in line to what the top teams in the league post (i.e., teams that have a points percentage above 0.600 in the regular season). A 54% Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals For percentage is what top end teams like Florida, Calgary, Carolina, Boston, Toronto and Colorado are currently posting. The Oilers are closer to that group thanks to the coaching change, and should expect to continue doing well if they stay healthy and get decent goaltending.

Now it’s understandable if management wants to wait for the off-season to make the call on whether or not Woodcroft should be given a new contract. Maybe it’s in Woodcroft’s best interest too in case another team brings forward a better offer. But it’s difficult to envision a scenario that would disqualify Woodcroft’s candidacy to be the head coach in Edmonton next season. The regular season results have been excellent and far better than what they’ve had since McDavid arrived seven years ago. And it’s not really reasonable to base the coaching decision on what happens in the post-season considering the playoff tournament is highly volatile that could go either way in a series – really depending more on which team gets the better goaltending. And if the players and their agents are already signing off on having Woodcroft stick around, it’s difficult to go another direction.

Yes

— Jeff Jackson (@JLJax12) April 20, 2022

It’ll be interesting to see what approach the Oilers take, either going with someone they know and have developed as a coach, someone who appears to have progressive ideas and knows the players and prospects well. Or do they go with an external option, likely someone with similar traits to the previous three coaches. Just keep your expectations of the team lower if that ends up being the case.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Related:

Joined @RodKurtzCBC on @CBCRadioActive this afternoon to talk #Oilers, their results since the coaching change, the playoff race and the impact Jesse Puljujärvi makes when he's on the ice.https://t.co/SZOzFBA31N

— Sunil Agnihotri (@sunilagni) April 12, 2022

Also posted at The Copper & Blue.

A common trend we’ve seen across the league for many years now is how coaches alter their approach depending on what the score is in a game. Trailing in a game, and you can expect the coach to start playing the skilled players a little more and be willing to take on some more risks to create offensive chances. Leading in a game, and teams start to play more conservatively, not really trying anything that could lead to a turn over, and focus more on just keeping the puck out of their own zone.

And we can see this in the data from the previous three seasons. Using Corsi For percentage as a proxy for puck possession, we see how when the game is tied, team’s on average control about 50% of the total shot attempts for and against. When trailing in a game and looking for the next goal, we see that the league average Corsi For% jump to 55%. And when they’re leading, teams tend to take their foot off the gas, not trying to create too much, and we see the league average Corsi For% drop to around 45%. In the graph below, these league-average levels are indicated by the orange line. And for context, I also added the league-high (blue line) and league-low (grey line) Corsi For% for each game-state to show the range.

Protecting the lead

The way coaches approach things when their team is leading in a game isn’t all too suprising considering the majority of them are fairly risk-averse. And they would rather their players play a simple game and not do anything that could jeoparidize their lead. What’s interesting is that in his first fourteen games as head coach of the Edmonton Oilers, Jay Woodcroft seems to have a different approach and appears to be pushing his team to continue generating offence even with a lead. A stark contrast to the previous three head coaches the Oilers have had since 2015.

The table below has the same three lines as the previous graph showing the range of Corsi For% across the league when a team is leading in a game, tied or trailing. Added to the graph now are bars to represent the previous coaches the Oilers have had and what the Oilers Corsi For% was under them in different game states.

What we see here is that when Todd McLellan, Ken Hitchock or Dave Tippett were coaching, the Oilers followed the usual trend. They would push for offence at a league average rate only when trailing in a game, and saw a significant drop in their puck posession numbers when leading in a game. Hitchcock especially had the Oilers pretty much playing in a defensive shell posting some of the lowest posession numbers in the league when the score was tied or when the Oilers were leading.

What stands out here are the Oilers numbers when they’ve been leading in games under Jay Woodcroft. While the average team posts a Corsi For% of 45% when leading the score, the Oilers are posting one of the highest possesion numbers in the league with 54%. They appear to be pushing for offence, opting to control the flow of play and put pressure on opponents as a way to stifle any chances against. It’s a riskier way to play, but makes sense considering it’s what the top teams in the league do. This season, eight of the top ten teams in terms of Corsi For% when leading have a points percentage above 0.600, and includes Florida, Calgary and Colorado at the top.

I’d be curious to hear Woodcroft’s thoughts on the matter and if he does have a different perspective on how best to protect leads, especially with so many critical games coming up. And if this changes the type of players Holland and his scouting staff start targeting in the off-season.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at The Copper & Blue.

Related: Chasing the game – The SuperFan (2020, January 3)

The Edmonton Oiler’s special teams has become a drag this season, something I don’t think fans were expecting considering how much of a positive impact it has had on the overall results over the previous two seasons.

When you combine the goals for and against on the powerplay and the penalty kill this season, the Oilers special teams has posted a -1 goal differential, which is right around league average. That’s a significant drop from last season when the Oilers special teams posted a +19 goal differential, the highest in the league. The year before that, their special teams was +21 and tied for first in the league. Without a doubt, the Oilers special teams is the reason why they finished second in their division in 2019/20 and 2021, considering how poor their even-strength (5v5) goal-differential was in both of those seasons (-16 in 2019/20 and -1 in 2020/21). Since the Oilers full-season goal differential at even-strength (while improving under Woodcroft) is still poor sitting at -5, they desperately need their special teams to be better than league average if they have any hopes of clinching a playoff spot.

Penalty kill

The Oilers are currently allowing the sixth highest rate of goals against in the league on the penalty kill (8.91 per hour) and only ahead of Detroit, Montreal, Arizona, Seattle and Vancouver. And this is largely due to their goaltending which has posted a 84.53% save percentage that ranks 26th overall.

The Oilers have actually done a decent job in front of their goaltending, allowing a near-average rate of shot attempts and shots on goal against. And these numbers have gradually been improving. Under Dave Tippett, the Oilers allowed 58.47 shots against per hour, slightly higher than the league average rate of 54.67. Under Woodcroft, the Oilers are now allowing 55.38 per hour.

The problem is the goaltending has consistently been poor this season. Koskinen has an 84.50% save percentage, ranking 47th among 62 goalies who have played at least 50 minutes, while Smith ranks 56th with an 82.1% save percenatge. While both goalies did post solid penalty kill save percentages over the previous two seasons, Oilers management should have expected an eventual drop-off considering the age of both netminders and the increased potential for injuries and the extended recovery times necessary. Unfortunately, this is what happens when managers lack an understanding of player-aging-curves and fail to address key issues in the off-season.

Powerplay

Over the full season, the Oilers powerplay has scored at a rate of 9.44 goals per hour, ranking fifth in the league and just slightly below the rate of goals they scored over the previous two seasons, leading the league with 10.60 per hour. The Oilers had a great start to the season but have since been in a steady decline with the Oilers generating only 6.41 goals per hour since Woodcroft was hired – one of the lowest rates in the league. The graph below breaks out the Oilers season into rolling 25-game segments and shows the rate of powerplay goals per hour, with the vertical line indicating when the coaching change occurred.

A big reason why the Oilers powerplay has dropped off is their declining rate of shots and scoring chances. Prior to the coaching change, the Oilers were generating over 69 shots per hour – the highest in the league and well above the league average rate of 54.66 per hour. But since Woodcroft’s arrival, the rate of shots has dropped down by 29.5% falling to 48.64 per hour.

The issue here is that the Oilers are really missing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

The Oilers have historically seen their rate of shots on the powerplay drop whenever Nugent-Hopkins isn’t on the ice, and that’s even with McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice. Over the previous two seasons, McDavid and Draisaitl have played 52 minutes without Nugent-Hopkins with them and saw their on-ice rate of shots-for drop by 23.8% – going from 64 shots per hour when the trio is together to 49 shots per hour without Nugent-Hopkins.

The same drop-off has occurred this year with the rate of powerplay shots dropping by 16.3% when McDavid and Draisaitl haven’t had Nugent-Hopkins with them, going from 71 shots per hour down to 60. Nugent-Hopkins has missed 11 games this year, and in the 100 powerplay minutes the Oilers have played without him the team has seen a major drop in productivity scoring at a rate of 6.54 goals per hour – a stark decline from the 11.28 goals per hour the Oilers have scored when he’s been on the ice.

While the Oilers can’t predict when injuries will hit, they should be aware of the fact that Nugent-Hopkins is starting to creep into the tail end of his career, having played 701 NHL games now and becoming more susceptible to injuries. And they should also be aware of the positive impact he’s historically had on the powerplay and planned on what to do if they’re ever without their powerplay witch. Again this comes down to management’s ability to regularly analyze their on-ice results, conduct sound player evaluation and intergrate as much information as possible into their decision-making process. The powerplay can still be fixed, but Ken Holland and his staff are once again taking a reactive approach instead of proactively trying to get ahead of issues before they come up and derail a season.

If the special teams is what costs the Oilers a playoff spot, management will have only themselves to blame.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Also posted at The Copper and Blue.