Joined Adrienne Pan on the CBC News in Edmonton to talk about the Oilers, their off-season moves, playoff hopes and McDavid’s new role as captain.
Clip starts around the 5 minute mark.
http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/784739395513
Author: sunilagni
Thoughts on the Oilers: Current roster, offseason moves and the upcoming season
Looking forward to getting the regular season started. The Oilers made a lot of significant changes with trading away Hall and Yakupov, and brought in some new assets like Larsson and Lucic that will hopefully right the ship of this bottom-feeder franchise.
The other good news is that it looks like Klefbom has recovered from his staph infection from last season, and that McDavid might actually be faster than last season. If these two can stay healthy, and if Talbot can start and finish the season strong, the club will make progress. My guess is that the Oilers land around the 80-85 point mark, and will finish somewhere between 10th and 12th in the Western Conference. And make no mistake, if the Oilers do take a step forward, it’ll be because of superstar performances from McDavid, Klefbom and Talbot. Lucic and Larsson are good additions, I think both can contribute next season, but the club has too many weaknesses to be a competitive team.
I’ve harped on this before, but the goaltending tandem could’ve been better, as I don’t think Gustavsson is an NHL goalie. There were better options available, yet the Oilers paid a million to a guy who wasn’t exactly in high demand. Talbot has been a fine acquisition, but twice now he’s struggled once taking over a starting position (once in New York, and last season with Edmonton). The Oilers are banking on Talbot starting well and starting often.
The defence is better than last season, but there are still too many question marks for my liking. I may not have liked the trade to acquire him, but I am looking forward to seeing Larsson paired with Klefbom in a top four role that can play in all situations. Sekera will probably be his steady self, but the rest of the defence core I’m a little unsure about. Fayne I’m a fan of, and he played well with Sekera last season, and really should be paired with him agais, but the Oilers don’t seem to want him around. Davidson was great last season in a depth role, and that’s where I’m hoping the Oilers continue to play him this coming season. There really is no reason the Oilers should be eager to push him up the chart. If injuries happen, sure. But why not play him at his established playing level? I’m also a fan of Nurse, but I’d prefer to see him spend a full season in Bakersfield and get him lots of ice time there in different situations. The team admitted that they had to rush his development last season because of all of the injuries (and their weak depth on defence), so I don’t understand what their excuse is this year. Russell is another average to below-average defenceman that doesn’t really push the needle, but he does bring experience. More on him in a second.
As for the forwards, the team has plenty of skill and a range of ability. McDavid is really the only driver among the group who has the ability to carry a line on his own. Lucic, Eberle, RNH, Pouliot are all established forward, and we know what we can expect from this group. I’d love to see Draisaitl take a step forward (as a center) this coming season. He’s up for a contract, so there should not be any sort of sheltering. The team should know what they have in him before signing him long-term or opting to bridge him. There’s a little more uncertainty among the rest of the forwards. In my mind, Caggiula and Puljujärvi should be in Bakersfield for at least 30 games so that they can adjust to the professional game and for the Oilers to get a better read on what they have. The scouts have obviously seen what these two can bring, but there’s no way they can be certain of it until they see them in a setting and system that the Oilers are familiar with. I never understand the hesitation in sending guys away to develop. Chiarelli was fine doing that in Boston with guys like Pastrňák, but appears to be embracing the Oilers way.
The Oilers should be focused on establishing a window, a 5-7 year period, where they can compete for the Stanley Cup. Winning the cup requires a lot of luck, so if they can be in the hunt for an extended period, I would consider that a success. Chiarelli really only built a two year window in Boston, something a lot of teams can do, and was fortunate to have elite goaltending and a hall-of-famer defenceman to build around. Hopefully he does better than that in Edmonton.
Here’s what I learned about the Oilers this summer: the current management group aren’t going to be outside the box thinkers, which is extremely disappointing. And I’m not just referring to utilizing analytics to contribute to their decision making. I’m talking about exploiting inefficiencies, finding value contracts, controlling assets, leveraging their strengths, that sort of stuff. The things that teams like Florida and Carolina are doing, or trying to do. The Oilers can easily use their resources (outside of the cap) to get a step on their competition, but it appears they’re going to do what’s tried and true. I was hoping that the acquisition of Maroon (and that sweet value contract) was a sign of things to come, but it appears at this point to be an anomaly.
Because of the controversial moves this summer (Hall vs Larsson, etc), and really the divisive nature of social media, we’re going to see a lot more of this type of trolling. And lets make one thing clear: the “analytics” don’t say anything, (it’s a process to find meaningful patterns and correlations in data), but the individuals who interpret and analyze the data will have a voice. If you have an issue with someone’s analysis, go after that individual rather than clumping everyone together; it pushes a specific topic along and adds more to the overall discussion. Believe it or not, there is plenty of debate among those within the analytics community, so it doesn’t make sense to group everyone together.
I’m also finding the growing support of Russell to be suspiciously quick. I’d be all for adding someone with 500+ NHL games, but only if it meant prospects like Nurse and Reinhart would be both pushed down to the AHL. Russell is a below average defenceman (doesn’t push a team’s offence, doesn’t suppress shots and chances against), who can play in your bottom four with limited, often sheltered, minutes. So all of the hype of him being anything above average is nonsense. And if you’re going to talk about his micro-stats (i.e., puck retrieval counts, preventing zone entries), (1) demonstrate it’s repeatability, (2) demonstrate it’s correlation to shots and goals (or things that are important to winning games), and (3) make your data available so it can be reviewed. I’ve seen enough of this player’s on-ice ability and his underlying number to have formed an opinion on him. If he can play better than his previous performances, I’ll be thrilled.
Recommended links:
Will Kris Russell Help? – Beer League Heroes
A Few Words – OilersNation
What Could Have Been vs What Might Be – Copper & Blue
Puljujarvi Gifted a Spot? – OilersNation
Mission Accomplished – Black Dog Hates Skunks
Who’s Ready to Kill Some Penalties?
An area that the Oilers have struggled with in pre-season has been the penalty kill. And that was on full display in their recent game against Winnipeg, who scored four powerplay goals on their way to a 5-1 win over Edmonton. Yes it’s only pre-season, but if we look at what options the Oilers have for their penalty kill once they start playing meaningful games, it’s not looking pretty.
Last season, the Oilers finished 18th in the league when it came to killing penalties, with an 81.1% success rate (Source: Sporting Charts). And when it came to limiting unblocked shot attempts against (i.e., Fenwick), which is a good predictor of future success on special teams, the Oilers ranked 23rd in the league with 74.5 (Source: Hockey Analysis).
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.
Talking Yakupov, Training Camp, Defence pairings and Penalty Kill on The Lowdown with Lowetide
Joined Lowetide on TSN 1260 to talk Oilers this morning. Full audio clip is below (starts around the 45 minute mark):
Discussed:
- Yakupov’s role this coming season
- Defence pairings, including why Sekera should be paired with Fayne. Wrote about the duo at Copper & Blue a few months ago.
- Talked about why Gryba might be a good fit for Davidson. Wrote about that recently at Copper & Blue.
- Penalty kill options
Looking into how the Oilers can best utilize Maroon this coming season
One thing worth watching in training camp is where forward Patrick Maroon will slot in among the group of forwards. The 28 year old was brought in to bring in size and versatility, and has also shown the ability to put up points, typically when on a line with offensive players. Maroon will cost the Oilers $3.0 million over the next two seasons, a fairly reasonable price point, before becoming an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2018.
Following his arrival to Edmonton from Anaheim on trade deadline day, Maroon played in 16 games and produced very well playing mostly with Connor McDavid and Jordan Eberle, notching 14 points (8 goals, 6 assists). His points per 60 shot up to 2.84 at even-strength, highest among all Oiler forwards, up from the paltry 1.00 points per 60 he posted last season with Anaheim.
Without a doubt, Maroon benefited from playing alongside McDavid, as the rookie typically had a positive impact on any of his linemates when it came to possession and production. The two along with Eberle played a total of 119 minutes at even-strength near the end of the season, finishing with a Corsi For percentage of 47.49%, an Expected Goals For percentage, which measures shot quality, of 53.27%, and a Goals For percentage of 69.23%, good for second among all line combinations that played at least 50 minutes together. The trio scored 17 goals together, which translates into a Goals For/60 of 4.51, good for 24th in the league. Their success however seems to be driven largely by a higher than team average shooting percentage and save percentage, as their PDO was at 107.33. (Source: Corsica Hockey).
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.
The Gryba and Davidson Partnership
I didn’t think I’d ever say this, but I’m okay with the Oilers signing Eric Gryba to a Professional Tryout (PTO) agreement. The 28 year old, right shooting defencemen is expected at training camp, with a pretty good shot at making the team. It’s a low risk move that creates competition for one of the depth spots on the roster. And it should, in my opinion, make it harder for both Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart to make the opening night lineup I have no hesitation in saying that both Nurse and Reinhart, who I think are good prospects, need extended time to develop at in the AHL. There is no harm in having these two play top pairing minutes, in all situations, against AHL-level competition in Bakersfield, until they’re ready to contribute on a consistent basis.
Back to Gryba, the things that he has going in his favor are his performance numbers from last season playing with young Brandon Davidson. They were one another’s most common defence partner, having played a total 279 minutes together at even-strength, predominantly as the third pairing on most nights, but did move up into the top four on occasion. Their 53.48 CF% at even-strength was second best among all Oiler defence pairings that played more than 50 minutes together (18 defence pairs in total). Source: Corsica Hockey.
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.
Couple Thoughts on Shawn Horcoff
Any hopes of Shawn Horcoff playing one more season in the NHL were put to rest this morning as he officially accepted a new front office role with the Detroit Red Wings. While I do think he’ll eventually be part of a coaching staff one day, starting off in a player development role suits him just fine for now.
He was absolutely one of my favorite players, mostly because he was a solid centermen, but also because his work was often overlooked and taken for granted. He was also a reason why I got into shot-based metrics like Corsi and Fenwick around the time the advanced numbers were taking off. Many times, you would see him play against the best lines, prevent bad things from happening, and then skate off the ice with nothing really to show for it. But when we started getting access to time on ice numbers and started to see how much the team relied on him to play against the Sakic’s and Yzerman’s, you began to appreciate how much he meant to the franchise.
He also represents to me an era of the Oilers that will never get a lot of praise, but one that I’ll always be attached to. Now I have nothing against the dynasty Oilers and obviously appreciate and respect their accomplishments. But I was too young to really be into hockey in the 80’s, and really have zero attachment to that era and those players.
Instead it’s been the Oilers since 1997 that I’ve had an attachment to and identify with. Every move the team has made, every season, the players, I feel like I have my own story to tell and my own interpretation of the events. So following the career of Horcoff, from his draft day to the 2006 playoff run, to the trade to Dallas, to his season in Anaheim, there’s a sense of loss with the news of his retirement, but also a renewed sense of connection to a player that accomplished a lot over the course of 15 seasons.
Below are the links to articles I’ve written about Horcoff. Included in those links are the numbers he posted as an Oilers, but also a review of his performance in Dallas, where he was a solid depth player, and Anaheim, where he continued to be a reliable utility player and saw his ice time gradually increase.
- Bringing Back Horcoff (2015, June 3)
- Bringing Back Horcoff (Part 2) (2015, June 26)
- The Horcoff Contract Comes to an End (2015, June 30)
- Bringing Back Horcoff (Part 3) (2015, July 2)
- Checking in On Shawn Horcoff (2015, December 16)
- Horcoff Plays in his 1,000th NHL Game (2016, March 26)
- Horcoff’s 2015/16 Season (2016, May 10)
Talking Oilers and the Opening of Rogers Place on CBC Edmonton (TV)
I joined Adrienne Pan on the CBC evening news in Edmonton to talk about the opening of Rogers Place. Clip starts at the 14:30 mark.
http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/760904771743
Big thank you to CBC Edmonton for the opportunity.
Oilers Line Combinations from the 2015-2016 Season
With training camp a few weeks away, the discussion around potential line combinations will begin to ramp up. With Milan Lucic joining the forward group, and new prospects like Jesse Puljujärvi and Drake Caggiula entering the system, along with older prospects like Jujhar Khaira and Anton Slepyshevpushing for spots, the possibilities are endless.
But before putting together potential line combinations, I thought it’d be worth looking at how the different line combinations did last season. In particular, I looked at the combinations that played at least 50 minutes together at 5v5, and focused on their possession numbers (CF%), their share of quality shots/expected goals (xGF%) and their share of actual goals (GF%). I’ve sorted the table by Corsi For%, but you can click the table’s column headers to sort the other metrics. Also included in the table below is the time-on-ice (TOI), along with the line’s PDO and percentage of offensive zone starts. Please note that the numbers have been adjusted for score state, zone and venue. Source: Corsica Hockey).
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.
Some reasons to believe in Anton Lander
After a pretty brutal 2015/16 season, where he only scored one goal and notched two assists, Anton Lander has a lot to prove to Oiler fans. He was coming off of a pretty good 2014/15 season, when he was promoted to Edmonton from Oklahoma City after Todd Nelson became interim head coach, scoring six goals and finishing the season with 20 points in 38 games. Expectations were certainly raised last summer when he was rewarded with a two-year, one-way contract extension that would pay him $925K in the first year and $1.05 million in the second ($987,500 AAV), and a very good showing at the 2015 World Championships where he played on the top line for Sweden.
One thing to consider is that of the 20 points he scored in 2014/15, 9 were on the powerplay, which was clicking at a very high rate with Todd Nelson behind the bench. With McLellan behind the bench, Lander did not get nearly as much ice time with the man advantage, and understandably so: the lineup was healthier than the 2014/15 team and the additions of McDavid and Draisaitl were going to push players like Lander off of the powerplay. Regardless, Lander’s respectable 1.49 points/60 at even-strength was sixth among Oiler forwards who played at least 400 minutes in 2014/15 (12 forwards total). What was also promising were his possession numbers over those 38 games. Below is how he ranked among Oiler forwards with at least 400 minutes of ice time. (Source: Hockey Analysis)
Lander finished the season with a +1.2 Corsi For percentage relative to teammates, which ranked him behind top six forwards like Hall, Eberle, RNH and Pouliot. Lander’s two most common linemates that season were Matt Fraser and Andrew Miller, both of which are fringe players today. Lander did spend 93 minutes with Hall as well, which would absolutely give his numbers a boost. When it came to the rate of generating shot attempts (i.e., Corsi For/60), Lander finished third on the team with a +3.80 Corsi For/60 relative to teammates, but ranked 8th on the team when it to the rate of shot attempts against.
Fast forward to the 2015/16 season, and Lander’s productivity when it came to point production falls off of a cliff, as he finished the season with a 0.33 points/60 at even-strength, which was last on the team among forwards who played at least 500 minutes, and fourth last in the entire NHL. But when it came to his possession numbers relative to his teammates, Lander did not fare too badly.
Full article is at The Copper & Blue.
The SuperFan 