Over at Oilersnation, I wrote a piece on the Edmonton Oilers disturbingly low PDO rate at even-strength (5v5), and if they ever reached these levels last season. I also looked at each individual players PDO, and which players we can expect better production from going forward. There’s definitely reasons for optimism, but things will need to turn around pretty soon here if the team wants to be a top-end club.

Between November 8 and November 23 last season (games 14-20), the Oilers went 3-4 over seven games and were outscored 7-18. Their PDO was at 0.949 – their lowest point of the season. They came close to that again a few more times over the season, but for the most part were well above that and finished the 2022/23 regular season at 100.6. A team’s shooting percentage and save percentage is going to fluctuate throughout the season – that’s the random nature of hockey. And I doubt the Oilers current rate of scoring and saving goals is going to continue, especially when they have some decent talent on their roster.

The other positive for the Oilers is that they’re underlying shot-share numbers at even-strength, which predicts future results (i.e., goal-share), have been very solid this season. Their Corsi For percentage (a proxy for puck possession) is at 56 percent and their share of Expected Goals (which measures shot quality) sits at 54 percent. Their current goal-share of 35 percent (10 goals for, 18 goals against) should not last long if they can continue out-chancing opponents. But it’s anyone’s guess as to when that will happen.

Sunil Agnihotri/Oilersnation

Full article is at Oilersnation.

In my latest post for Oilersnation, I looked into Evander Kane’s declining on-ice numbers at even-strength (5v5), and why his poor start to this season shouldn’t be surprising. Playing further down the line-up could benefit him and the Edmonton Oilers.

I found that Evander Kane was especially at risk as his on-ice shot-share numbers, which can be used to predict future results (i.e., goal-share), had gradually declined over the past few seasons. Starting in his last two seasons with the San Jose Sharks, his numbers indicated that his team was often performing worse with him than without him at even strength – a major red flag for someone who consistently played top six minutes with the top players on his team. His worst numbers came last season in Edmonton. Despite playing often with McDavid and Draisaitl, Kane posted some of the lowest shot-share numbers on the team, with the Oilers doing much better at controlling the flow of play and out-chancing opponents without him on the ice than with him. Injuries were obviously a factor last season, but it appears that his decline in even-strength performance started much earlier than that. And that shouldn’t be surprising based on what we know about player aging curves.

Sunil Agnihotri/Oilersnation

Full article is at Oilersnation.

In my latest post for Oilersnation, I looked into who the individual drivers were on the Oilers penalty kill from last year, and what the potential deployment could be like this upcoming season.

The next issue worth exploring before the start of the regular season is the player deployment from last season – and which skaters helped improve the odds of the penalty kill being successful. To do this, I looked at the on-ice numbers for each Oilers player who played at least 10 minutes on the penalty kill last season. Specifically, I wanted to know how well the team did at suppressing shots (shots against per hour, SA/60) and chances (unblocked shot attempts against per hour, FA/60) with different players on the ice. These are numbers that skaters can help influence, as they are trying to block shots, cut off passing lanes, and force the puck into low-probability scoring areas. For context, I also included in the tables each skater’s on-ice rate of goals against (i.e., actual results, GA/60), which skaters tend to have less of an influence on as goaltending plays a larger factor.

Sunil Agnihotri/Oilersnation

Full article is at Oilersnation.

In my latest post for Oilersnation, I looked into the Oilers penalty kill from last season, and some of the gradual progress it had made over the course of the year.

Heading into an important year, it’s critical that the Oilers penalty kill doesn’t cost them any wins like it did in the first twenty-five games of last season. The second-half results were driven by better tactics and defensive play by the skaters, and the team should be able to replicate those numbers. The only question mark should be around goaltending, which we can’t always predict. But if Skinner and Campbell can perform even at league-average levels, the Oilers penalty kill should be in a better spot.

Sunil Agnihotri/Oilersnation

Full article is at Oilersnation.

In my latest post for Oilersnation, I looked into how many goals we can reasonably expect from Leon Draisaitl this upcoming season. I factored in his games played, rate of shots and shooting percentage in different games states. I also looked into what might be holding him back from reaching the 60-goal mark.

So taking a conservative approach and using his average rate of shots and his individual shooting percentage from the last four seasons at even-strength and on special teams, I think we can expect Draisaitl to score at least 51 total goals in the 2023/24 regular season (25 on even-strength, 25 on the powerplay and one shorthanded). This of course is assuming Draisaitl remains healthy, he continues to play with good players at even-strength. And the Oilers powerplay continues to have the same talent and tactical approach as it’s had the last few seasons with Glen Gulutzan running things.

Now to get anywhere near 60 goals and join that elite club, a few things will need to go right.

Draisaitl would need to match his career-best shooting percentages at even-strength (20.53% in 2018/19) and the powerplay (30.48% in 2022/23). Doing that and even generating the same rate of shots per game from the last four seasons (1.87 shots per game at even-strength and 1.21 shots per game on the powerplay) and he could potentially reach 61 goals – 31 at even-strength, 29 on the powerplay and 1 shorthanded.

Sunil Agnihotri/Oilersnation

Full article is at Oilersnation.

My first post for Oilersnation is up! I looked at the first 20 games of last regular season and what some of the drivers were for the Oilers poor results.

After the first 20 games of last season (up until November 24^th), the Oilers had ten wins and ten losses – a points percentage of 0.500 that ranked 22^nd in the league. This was only better than Arizona, Vancouver, San Jose and Anaheim in the Western Conference. The team performed poorly at even-strength (5v5), which needed to be much better as the special teams was pretty much a non-factor due to the terrible penalty kill. The powerplay was a bright spot, generating the third-highest rate of goals in the league during this period. But all of their net goals (+19) were completely negated by the penalty kill that allowed the fourth-highest rate of goals against in the league.

In these first twenty games at even-strength, the Oilers had a -11 goal differential (33 goals for, 44 goals against) – a 42.85% goal-share that ranked 28^th in the league. The team’s below average shooting percentage and save percentage were obvious factors. But there’s a few more underlying issues.

Sunil Agnihotri/Oilersnation

Full article is at Oilersnation.com.

Happy to announce that I’ll be joining Oilersnation as a contributor for the upcoming season!

I’ve been a long-time reader of the website, even remember the very, very early days and some of the great writers that have written there in the past. It’s been a staple for Oiler fans and continues to be at the top in terms of hockey coverage. I’m happy to be joining such a talented group of people.

Special thanks to Oilersnation news director Zach Laing who reached out. One of the best in the Oilers fan community, a real professional who I’ve had the pleasure of hosting on my podcast a few times.

I’ll still be using this website as a centralized repository for all of my work and will post links to my articles at Oilersnation and any radio segments for CBC Edmonton.

Appreciate the support I’ve received over these 14+ years writing here and elsewhere. Looking forward to what comes next.