Sluggish start to the regular season with the Edmonton Oilers currently sitting fifth in the Pacific division with a points percentage of 0.542 after 12 games. A 5-4-3 record doesn’t exactly inspire confidence – especially with the team shooting and save percentage below league average levels and a number of players in high-profile positions struggling at different points.

But it’s important to supplement any evaluation of the team’s current results with predictive metrics — the kind that help us understand where things might be headed.

Western conference context

Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage). These include goal-share results and shot-share metrics, which give us a sense of which teams have strong underlying processes — and which are over- or underperforming. At the end of the table, you’ll find each team’s shooting and save percentages. A simple heat map highlights which clubs are excelling (green) or struggling (red). Note: all shot-share metrics are score- and venue-adjusted per Natural Stat Trick’s methodology

The Oilers’ underlying numbers

The Oilers are sitting tenth in the western conference, with fairly average underlying shot-share metrics. They’ve been rather inconsistent in controlling overall share shots and scoring chances.

The good news is (1) they’re not horrible, hovering around 50 percent when it comes to Corsi For percentage and Expected Goals. And (2) the coaching staff has everything they need to get these numbers up. It’s just a matter of being less stubborn with player deployment and tactical choices.

The shooting percentage should eventually improve, there’s just too much talent on the roster. It’s harder to have confidence in the team’s save percentage. Skinner currently ranks below league average levels when it comes to save percentage and goals-saved-above-average. It’s an ongoing issue for a few seasons now, documented extensively on this website, so it’s really up to management to address this.

Tactical adjustments

One rather simple adjustment is to have the glimmer twins on their own lines – which has proven to be a successful tactic for a few years now. Currently the team is posting a 43 percent Expected Goals for percentage when McDavid or Draisaitl aren’t on the ice. Which means it’s not going to end well if the coach keeps going to the Easter Line as often as he has. Hyman coming back in the next week or so will be a boost as well.

The other thing the team needs to change up is how they play when leading. Rather than playing conservatively and sitting back to avoid mistakes, the team should be pushing for more offence like the other top clubs do, including Carolina, Colorado and New Jersey. The best defence is playing more often in the opponents zone, and the team has the players to do this effectively. For whatever reason, the coaching staff has everyone playing a little too safe – it just comes across as panicky.

Evaluating individual players

To assess individual performances and results, I’ve put together the tables below sorted by ice time. Included is each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. And for additional context, each player’s on-ice PDO is captured. A basic heat map is applied to show how players compare within their cohort.

First off, it’s important to address Bouchard here as he’s taken a significant amount of heat for some poor plays. No doubt, he’s had some rough moments. But it’s important to remember that the team tends to outshoot and outchance opponents when he’s on the ice. So it’s really just a matter of time before that on-ice goal differential improves. There’s enough of a track record with the player to trust the underlying process and believe that better results will come.

I’d be more worried about Nurse, who once again has struggled to have a positive impact on the team’s ability to generate scoring chances. If there’s anyone who should have their ice time dialed back, it’s probably him.

Up front, I’d be a little worried about the depth guys including Frederic. He’s had his moments, but there’s not a whole lot to his game, especially when he’s deployed as a center. And young guys like Howard and Savoie need to be given some rope here so management can know what they have in them. Their on-ice numbers have not been great, which isn’t overly surprising. But they need a long stretch with the star players to give them some reps. Again, not sure why the coaching staff has been so reluctant and stubborn when it comes to developing youth.

Thoughts

There’s always going to be a lot of noise around the Edmonton Oilers – it’s just the nature of professional sports. But it’s important to apply a critical lens when reading or listening to the analysis available. Yes, players are struggling and their results show it. But there’s also enough data and information available to help cut through some of the narratives. Simple stats like PDO are especially important as it can tell us if the player’s results are real or not, and what their future outcomes could look like. Use it often, and you can avoid a lot of mistakes in your evaluations.

Data: Natural Stat Trick