Couple notes from the first four games of the western conference finals. Ahead in the race to the finals, the Oilers have a massive opportunity tonight to close things off.

• The Oilers results have been excellent at even-strength, outscoring the Stars 9-3. Shooting percentage is close to 11 percent and the team save percentage is over 96 percent – both well above normal levels for the league and for the team.
• The Oilers underlying shot-share numbers at even-strength have been fine. While their adjusted Corsi For percentage is at 49 percent and their Expected Goals for percentage has been 47 percent, it’s largely due to the fact that they’ve been leading for about 69 percent of the total time at even-strength.
• When the score has been within one goal (about 132 minutes of 192 total), the Oilers have posted a Corsi For percentage of just under 53 percent, and an Expected Goals For percentage of 51 percent.
• Stuart Skinner has arguably been the best player for Edmonton. After a shaky start, and posting shorthanded numbers similar to his career levels, he’s significantly improved. Question remains if he can maintain this level, or if he fades off – similar to what’s happened in the past when he’s playing too many minutes.
• Oilers powerplay has been great – five goals in about 20 minutes translates to a scoring rate of 14.42 goals per hour. That’s well above what they finished with in the regular season (8.90 per hour) and higher than the best powerplay (Winnipeg had 11.06 goals per hour). The Oilers rate of shots is slightly higher than where they were in the regular season, so it’s too early to panic about their powerplay falling off.
• The penalty kill results are much better now that the goalie is making saves. Who knew.

Below is how the Oilers skaters have performed at even-strength against the Stars so far.

Couple more notes:

• It makes a lot of sense to have Stecher take a break. He’s getting a lot of attention for stabilizing Nurse and being a “gamer”. But he’s been on the ice for a lot of shots against relative to his teammates. Nurse has also struggled, but continues to see a lot of ice time. Not sure if Nurse playing with Kulak, which is expected today with Ekholm returning, makes a lot of sense. Their on-ice shot share numbers have been poor in the regular season and in the playoffs.
• Losing Hyman is massive. The team tends to perform well with him on the ice, regardless of who’s on the ice with him – a rare driver in the league. Kane is going to get more minutes, but I wouldn’t expect him to last long, especially if he’s playing against better competition.
• That entire bottom six has not been good this round. While the Oilers have outscored the Stars 3-1 at even-strength without McDavid or Draisaitl, their underlying shot share numbers have been dreadful. The team’s Corsi For percentage without one or both of the glimmer twins is at 40 percent and the Expected Goals percentage is at 37 percent.
• Adding J. Skinner to the forward group would be recommended. Or perhaps moving Nugent-Hopkins to a third line to see if he can help others. In about 15 minutes away from Draisaitl and McDavid this round, RNH’s on-ice shot share numbers have been over 55 percent – he’s been excellent this series.

Data: Natural Stat Trick