Seeing the Edmonton Oilers get awful goaltending on the penalty kill this round should not be a surprise to anyone. Especially those that follow the team’s regular season numbers.

For two straight seasons now, the Oilers skaters have done a decent job preventing shots and chances against on the penalty kill. The skaters have done their jobs disrupting powerplays, getting in lanes and blocking shots – everything you expect them to do and hear coaches and commentators talk about.

In the 2023/24 regular season, the Oilers allowed the third lowest rate of unblocked shot attempts (67.78 per hour), the fifth lowest rate of shots on goal (49.27) and the third lowest rate of expected goals (6.90). But because their goaltending could only stop 84.68 percent of the shots, which ranked 27th in the league, the penalty kill finished 15th overall in terms of actual goals against. The tactics and process, which a team controls, were solid. The goaltending was not.

Similar things happened in this recent 2024/25 regular season. Again, the skaters allowed some of the lowest rates of shots and chances against in the league – ranking seventh best in unblocked shot attempts (71.08), eighth best in shots against (48.68), and third best in expected goals against (7.48). Despite all of this work and commitment to strong defensive play, the actual results were mediocre with the Oilers ranking 17th in terms of goals against. And this was again caused by poor goaltending, which ranked 23rd in the league (83.70 percent).

Among the 59 goalies who played at least 100 shorthanded minutes over the last two season, Stuart Skinner ranks 40th in save percentage (85.40 percent) and 43rd in goals saved above average (-1.86).

Evaluating a penalty kill is pretty straight-froward. The skaters are responsible for limiting shots and chances against. Goaltenders stop the pucks that get through. You can measure both components with different metrics, and assign accountability – it’s not complicated.

The Oilers penalty kill has been a disaster this post-season. Part of it is the fact that the Oilers are allowing slightly more shots and chances against. But the bigger issue is that in each round, the Oilers have had the some of the worst goaltending save percentages. In the first round, the Oilers team save percentage was the second worst among sixteen teams with 75.00 percent. In the second round, it was the second worst among eight teams with 82.35 percent. And it appears this trend will continue against Dallas in the western conference finals.

Hopefully the goaltending on the penalty kill can straighten out and maybe get closer to the levels it was at last post-season. But based on the goaltending numbers from the last two regular seasons and the last two rounds of this post-season, it’s hard to have confidence. It’s really going to be on the Oilers dominating at even-strength and the powerplay to outscore and mask the penalty kill’s deficiencies.

Data: Natural Stat Trick