Timing

Impressive run for the Edmonton Oilers so far, reaching the western conference finals for the third time in four years. And beating two solid teams along the way, including the division champs.

What’s really stood out this post-season are the contributions from across the roster. Especially from the individuals who had been dealing with injuries, and who I thought would be non-factors. That includes Kane and Klingberg, who are coming off major, career-altering surgeries. And Frederic who appeared to be damaged goods at the trade deadline and had a shaky start in the first series against Los Angeles. Glad to see that the bets that management took have worked out so far. The timing of it all has been excellent.

After coming off a regular season where the team posted a -22 goal differential (66 goals for, 88 goals against, a 42.8 percent goal-share ) at five-on-five without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, things have certainly turned around. The depth outscored Los Angeles 9-7 (a 56.25 percent goal-share), and outscored Vegas 7-2 (a 77.78 goal-share). Especially impressive has been the fact that their underlying shot-share numbers have improved from the regular season.

(Just waiting on NST to update their team-level data, and I’ll add the supporting details here.)

And here’s how the individual roster players have fared at even-strength (5v5) after the first two rounds of the post-season, sorted by time on ice. We’re dealing with small sample sizes. But the one thing that stands out is the fact that the Oilers have more than one anchor on the blueline that can help drive play and scoring chances without McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice.

Bouchard continues to thrive as he did during the regular season with and without the star players. But in the post-season, we’ve seen the emergence of the Walman/Klingberg pairing that’s been making a lot of positive plays. Both defencemen dealt with injuries at the end of the regular season, so their performances in the post-season have been a pleasant surprise. And it appears their success together (GF) is sustainable. Again, it’s been great timing.

Below are the defensive pairs that the Oilers coaching staff has deployed so far at 5v5, sorted by time-on-ice (minimum 15 minutes played). Think you can feel pretty confident with Bouchard paired with anybody, but Kulak is the best fit. The only tandem the team should really avoid is Nurse-Kulak – they don’t work stylistically statistically, in my opinion. The good news is that both player have success with others, and there are options for the coaching staff depending on the situation and risk-tolerance. Nurse and Stecher are posting good numbers together, and should be the go-to third pairing.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

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