In past seasons, I’ve done Pacific-division reviews for the first few months and then switched to the western conference reviews as the playoff races started to pick up. This season, I’ll be just getting straight into the western conference. The Oilers are pushing for banners and championships, so I’m more interested in how they stack up with the rest of the conference. Especially the central division which has a couple legit contenders.

The Oilers are off to a slow start, which isn’t overly surprising considering all of the new players who need time to adjust, the loss of speed and talent in the off-season, the holes on defence and the goaltending. The good news is that overall, the team is playing well and controlling the flow of play and scoring chances. They just can’t capitalize on their opportunities or get a save. Plus their special teams have been a mess.

Below are the even-strength (5v5) numbers for each team in the western conference (sorted by points percentage), including goal-share results as well as the shot-share metrics that give us a sense of which teams have the right processes in place and if the results are sustainable or not. At the end of the table are each team’s shooting percentage and save percentage. I’ve also applied a basic heat map to each metric to show which teams are doing well or struggling relative to their conference foes (i.e., green is good, red is bad). You can also find a description of each metric at the end of this article. Please note that the shot-share metrics are score and venue adjusted based on Natural Stat Trick’s methodology.

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After 11 games, the Oilers are sitting 10th in the western conference with a 0.500 points percentage. That’s tied with Anaheim and Seattle, neither of which are contending for much this season. What stands out is that the Oilers have posted some of the best shot-share numbers in the league. Yes, they have trailed a lot in games which skews the numbers as teams with the lead play less aggresively. But even when the scores have been close (within one goal) or tied, the Oilers shot-share numbers have been excellent. The issue is that their team shooting percentage is one of the worst in the league and their goaltending has been below average. If they can even be average at scoring and saving goals, they should move up the standings quickly.

I’d expect teams like Anaheim, San Jose, Seattle, Calgary and St. Louis to gradually drop in the standings. And it’ll be interesting to see where Vegas lands, as they have the talent but don’t appear to have sustainable results. They’re currently posting some poor shot-share numbers, and their results appear to be driven by a higher than normal shooting percentage.

The one other thing I’m interested in tracking is the volume of low-danger shots the OIlers generate this season. There was an interesting piece by Justin Bourne on Sportsnet about how teams that generate a lot of low danger shots are not doing themselves any favors, and are actually helping the opposing goalie get into the game more.

This all brings me to a detail from a more recent Valiquette interview, where he noted the data from his company, Clear Sight Analytics, shows a connection to low danger shots and losing. Teams have the highest winning percentage when they get seven or more high danger shots, while at the same time taking 12 or fewer low danger shots.

While it’s certainly not a solution on its own, the data showed teams that take just 0-9 low danger shots in a game win 60 per cent of the time, while teams that get up around 23-25 win just 33 per cent of the time. You end up keeping the opposing goalie warm and engaged, and essentially create turnovers via bad shots. You go from having solid possession to a whistle, or possibly to the other team having the puck.

Right now the Oilers are generating the third highest rate of low-danger shot attempts and the fifth highest rate of low-danger shots on goal at even-strength, which could explain why they’re having trouble scoring despite having the puck a lot.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Glossary:

• Points-percentage (Point%) – The total points accumulated divided by the points that were available, including extra time.
• Corsi for percentage (CF%) – The proportion of all the shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., corsi for/(corsi for + corsi against). This is used as a proxy for possession and is the best at predicting a team’steam’s future share of goals (GF%). (Source: Hockey Great Tapes – Draglikepull)
• Fenwick for percentage (FF%) – The proportion of all the unblocked shot attempts the team generated and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Fenwick for/(Fenwick for + aenwick against). This is used as a proxy for shot quality and considers shot blocking a repeatable skill.
• Expected goals for percentage (xGF%) – This is a weighting placed on every unblocked shot based on the probability of the shot becoming a goal. This depends on the type of shot, location and uses historical shot and goals data to come up with the probability for each unblocked shot.
• Goals for percentage (GF%) – The proportion of all the goals that the team scored and allowed that the team generated (i.e., Goals for/(Goals for + goals against).
• Shooting percentage (SH%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal that became goals (i.e., total goals divided by the total shots on goal).
• Save percentage (SV%) – The percentage of the team’steam’s shots on goal against that were saved (i.e., 1-(totals goals allowed divided by the total shots on goal against)).