Heading into game five of the western conference series, here’s how the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars have compared so far at even-strength (5v5).

While the number of goals have been even, the Oilers are posting better performance numbers. Over the four games, the Oilers have posted a Corsi For percentage of 56 percent and an Expected Goals For percentage of 54 percent. But Dallas is getting more saves right now, and converting on more of their chances. Edmonton’s shooting percentage is slightly higher than what they posted during the regular season (8.81 percent). It’s their goaltending that’s been below league average at even-strength, and it needs to be better for the Oilers to have a chance of making the finals.

Worth noting that it’s the Oilers depth players that are having issues scoring goals. With McDavid on the ice, the Oilers have outscored Dallas 7-4. But without him on the ice, they’ve been outscored 3-6. The other lines are doing a good job at controlling the flow of play and creating chances. But the team shooting percentage is only 5.45 percent.

The good news for Edmonton is that Dallas’ goaltending isn’t anything special either right now, which isn’t overly surprising. Oettinger played over 3,000 minutes during the regular season, similar to Skinner, and posted an identical save percentage – 90.70 percent in all situations.

On special teams, neither club has scored a powerplay goal. The Oilers have somehow only had 10 minutes of powerplay time in four games, but have done quite well at generating shots and chances. So it feels like it’s a matter of time before it becomes a factor again. The good news is that the Oilers penalty kill has continued to excel, not only continuing to prevent shots and chances, but also scoring a shorthanded goal in game four.

It’s fair to expect the Oilers penalty kill to continue having success, as long as the goaltending remains steady. The Oilers have allowed only three goals in sixteen playoff games so far, largely due to the fact that they’re allowing the second lowest rate of shots against (38.08 per hour) and unblocked shot attempts against (58.64 per hour). These shot suppression rates align pretty closely with what the Oilers posted during the regular season. The difference was that the Oilers weren’t consistently getting league-average goaltending when shorthanded – posting the sixth worst save percentage in the league. So as long as they can get league-average goaltending, we can expect the Oilers penalty kill to continue dominating.

Below is a snapshot at how the Oilers skaters are performing against Dallas at even-strength, including their on-ice shot-differentials and results.

The top end of the roster is doing quite well, with McDavid, Hyman and Bouchard spending a lot of time in the offensive zone and getting good results – and often against Dallas’ top players. I was a little surprised to see Ekholm’s numbers slip this series, as he’s consistently posted excellent on-ice numbers, so it’s likely that he’s dealing with an injury now.

Couple players to keep an eye on up front and on the back end. Brown, while being good on the penalty kill this series, isn’t getting much done at even-strength against the Stars depth players. Henrique is another player who has shown his value at times, but the Oilers tend to get out shot when he’s been on the ice. On the flip side, the Oilers might not be getting individual production from McLeod. But with the right linemates, like he has right now, his results should improve. On the backend, I think I’ve written enough about Ceci for a few years now. So it’s not surprising that he’s posting some of the worst shot-share numbers in the league.

And here’s a quick glance of the Stars. My main takeaway is that the Oilers top end players are taking care of the Stars top end players. It’s the Stars depth players who are making the biggest impact, making the line combination decisions even more important.

Data: Natural Stat Trick