It’ll be interesting to see what the pace will be like in the upcoming second round series between the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks. The Oilers are coming off a five-game series against the Kings, where the two clubs posted some of the highest rate of shots and goals among the first round teams. And the Canucks are coming off a six-game series against the Predators where shots and goals were hard to come by. Considering the Canucks were consistently posting some of the highest rates of shots during the regular season, I’d expect their offensive game to bounce back, especially against an Oilers team that has some deficiencies and likely isn’t going to be blocking shots at the same rate the Predators were.

Related: High event hockey between the Oilers and Kings – The SuperFan (2024, April 29)

I don’t think it’ll be enough though to knock-off the Oilers who have a lot of firepower up front. The star players are healthy. Their powerplay is clicking. And the goaltending, while not great, has been good enough. What the Canucks can really take advantage of is the drop-off in shot-share numbers and results when McDavid isn’t on the ice at even-strength. In the six game series against the Kings, the Oilers outscored the Kings 6-3 with McDavid, but were outscored 6-9 without him. These poor results were largely driven by the fact that the Oilers spent a lot of time without the puck, posting a 41% Corsi For percentage and an Expected Goals For percentage of 43%.

Here’s how the Oilers skaters performed at even-strength against the Kings.

Up front, there’s a little concern with the second line, but Draisaitl tends to outperform his shot metrics in the playoffs. There’s still a risk that his results eventually take a hit, especially since he’s spending a lot of time without the puck. Nugent-Hopkins and Kane were also on the ice for a lot of shots against, and could be a target for the Canucks as they’ve struggled off and on during the regular season. Foegele had some poor results as well, and was gradually demoted as the series wore on, so it’ll be interesting to see if he bounces back. McLeod is going to be critical once again as he’s done really well playing against top competition and holding his own in terms of shot differentials.

The big area for concern is that Nurse-Ceci tandem, who played primarily with Draisaitl’s line. Expect to see the Canucks go after these two, especially on the forecheck to create turnovers. Also a little leery about the Canucks goaltending being the difference maker at even-strength. Silovs hasn’t played a lot during the regular season, and I would argue is better rested than Skinner. He was excellent against the Predators, and could easily go on a heater here.

And here’s how the Canucks skaters did at even-strength against the Predators in the first round.

Miller, Boeser and Hughes were the play drivers in that first round, and it’s interesting to see that Hughes actual results were lower than expected. The Canucks also got some good results from their depth players with Suter posting a +3 on ice goal differential. Pettersson is getting a lot of negative attention for his poor results, but if he’s healthy he should bounce back, along with Hoglander – his most common linemate in the first round. Both players finished the regular season with some of the best on-ice numbers among the Canucks forwards. The Canucks bottom pair defencemen appear to be the weak links – something the Oilers depth needs to take advantage of. I’m also not convinced about Zadorov, as he posted pretty poor on-ice numbers to close the regular season.

Here’s the Canucks skaters performed over the final twenty five games of the season.

Should be an interesting matchup. Plenty of skill among both teams and potential for a higher-paced series.

Data: Natural Stat Trick

Related: Who has the special teams edge in round two between the Oilers and Canucks – The SuperFan (2024, May 5)