A little late getting this one together, but I was interested in seeing if forward Jordan Eberle could be a potential trade target for the Edmonton Oilers at the trade deadline. Depth scoring at even-strength (5v5) is currently a problem for the team, as the club is only converting on 5.97 percent of their shots when McDavid and/or Draisaitl aren’t on the ice – well below league average levels (8.57 percent). And while the Oilers depth players are doing a good job at controlling the flow of play (53.56 percent Corsi For%) and out-chancing opponents (53.30 percent Expected Goals For%), they’ve been outscored 40-48 this season – a goal-share of only 45.45 percent.

Eberle is in the last year of his contract with Seattle, and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer as a 33-year old. He’s put up 695 points in 998 games, and also has that playoff experience hockey managers like, appearing in 76 games including two eastern conference final appearances with the Islanders.

Over the course of his career, Eberle has been pretty consistent putting up second-line level points per hour at even-strength. This season, his rate has slipped slightly to 1.63 per hour, down from the 1.91 points per hour he posted in the previous five seasons.

A key driver for his point totals declining is his personal shooting percentage, which is sitting at 7.14 percent this season. Looking at his historical numbers, there’s been some ebb and flow, but he’s been pretty consistent posting a shooting percentage of 11.74 percent over the previous five seasons. I’d like to think this season is an anomaly just based on how consistent he’s been in the past, but age and wear and tear might be catching up to Eberle.

One reason to be optimistic about Eberle’s shooting percentage bouncing back is his continued ability to generate shots for himself. Over the previous five seasons, Eberle has averaged 7.44 shots per hour at even-strength. This season, he’s generating 7.78. Had this seasons rate of shots been lower than his career levels, I’d feel that maybe he was losing a step and not getting himself into plays often enough. But it appears that skillset is still there, indicating that there’s a chance that more of those shots will eventually turn into goals going forward.

Another reason to be optimistic about Eberle remaining productive is his ability to drive offence for the Kraken at even-strength this season. Eberle continues to be a top-six option for his club and his team tends to out-shoot and out-chance opponents more often when he’s on the ice. The table below lists the Kraken forwards this season, sorted by their total ice-time, including each player’s on-ice shot differential, expected goal differential and actual goal-differential. I’ve also included each player’s on-ice shooting and save percentage along with PDO to see what could be impacting their actual results (i.e., goal differential). A basic heat map has been applied to show how each player compares to their peers.

Eberle’s numbers really stand out here. He’s posting some of the best shot-based metrics on the team, indicating that his team tends to do better with him than without him.

What’s interesting to note is that Eberle does appear to be having a bit of a bounce-back season. In the previous two seasons with Seattle, he was posting negative relative-to-team numbers – maybe because he was adjusting to a new system and playing some of the highest minutes on the team. Prior to that, he’d been consistently posting positive numbers, indicating his ability to help drive play and his team’s chances of out-scoring opponents. This season, his numbers appear to be back to where we would expect them to be, making me wonder if his productivity could improve, potentially as an Oiler.

Data: Natural Stat Trick