With Connor McDavid back to playing at the levels we expected him to be at, I thought it’d be worth revisiting an article I wrote in mid-November when the captain’s season was off to a rocky start. Latest post is up at Oilersnation.

Since his tenth game of the season, McDavid went on to put up 24 even-strength points in the next 23 games. And he currently sits third in the league with 28 even-strength points – only behind Nathan MacKinnon (31 points) and Nikita Kucherov (29 points). McDavid’s current full-season rate of 3.21 points per hour is currently the highest among all top six forwards (226 players who have played at least 400 minutes this season).

The other factor in all of this has been McDavid’s ability to drive play generate chances again, and help tilt the ice in the Oilers’ favour. With him on the ice, the Oilers have historically seen an increase in their share of expected goals (which factors in shot type and location to determine the probability of shots becoming goals), which isn’t at all surprising considering his talent level. But that wasn’t the case early on in the season. After his first ten games, the Oilers were posting an expected goal-share of 52.22 percent with McDavid on the ice and actually saw an increase of 8.29 without him on the ice. That’s the opposite of what’s happened in the last three seasons where McDavid’s on-ice numbers were consistently well ahead of his teammates. Between 2020 and 2023, the Oilers posted an expected goal share of 58.34 percent with McDavid on the ice, which was 9.41 higher than what the team posted without him on the ice.

Sunil Agnihotri/Oilersnation

Full article is at Oilersnation.