The Edmonton Oilers are in a brutal spot having now lost three straight in regulation, and they really haven’t seen any benefits of the coaching change just yet. It’s only been five games with Kris Knoblauch behind the bench, but the results have been poor with the team getting outscored 18-21 in all situations (resulting in a 0.400 points percentage). And their underlying shot-share numbers at even-strength (5v5) that helps assess the team’s performance, and predicts future results, have also declined since Jay Woodcroft was dismissed.

Below is a quick comparison of how the Oilers have performed under the two coaches at even-strength. Under Woodcroft, the Oilers were consistently one of the better teams in the league when it came to puck possession and controlling scoring chances. But under Knoblauch, the team has seen around an 11% decline in these metrics, now hovering below league-average levels.

The actual results have also slipped slightly under Knoblauch, with the Oilers having posted a 38% goal-share at even-strength (8 goals for, 13 goals against). What’s especially alarming is that it’s on the defensive side of things where the Oilers have become worse since the coaching change. For instance, the rate of shot attempts (Corsi) against has increased by 28%, going from 48.58 per hour under Woodcroft to over 62 per hour under Knoblauch. The rate of expected goals against has had similar growth, increasing by 28% from 2.43 per hour to 3.13 per hour.

Offensively at even-strength, the Oilers have also downgraded, but not as significantly as they have on defence. The Oilers rate of shots on goal has dropped by 6.2%. But their rate of expected goals and actual goals remains around the same as before.

The powerplay has also been a mess, with the Oilers having only scored three goals since the coaching change. A big reason for that is their declining rate of unblocked shot attempts, which has been 66 per hour in the last five games – one of the lowest rates in the league and well below the 89 they generated per hour when Woodcroft was behind the bench this season and last season. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

The good news is that the Oilers penalty kill has been a bright spot in these last five games, allowing only three goals and actually scoring three goals. The Oilers have allowed around 62 unblocked shot attempts against per hour since the coaching chance, one of the lowest rates in the league and well below what previous coaching regimes posted.

It’s still early in Knoblauch’s coaching career with Edmonton, so hopefully he’ll be able to make the tactical and player deployment adjustments to get things on track again to get out of the western conference basement. For now, the performance numbers are indicating that we should temper our expectations of the team, especially if they continue to struggle with preventing chances against at even-strength.

Data: Natural Stat Trick